UFC on FOX 3

[PunisherIND]

Horrible MMA picks imo.

there are better and more solid fights this weekend to throw five units on, such as Liniker or Cholish.

Good luck !

cant wait for these lines to come out so we can discuss further. interested on your thoughts about cholish.

[sirchadwick1]

I actually think Libert1ne has some solid picks and am in agreement with most. I do think Hendricks will beat Kos though... and by decision at that. Just think he'll win on the feet and bounce up from takedowns, frustrating the hell out of the Fraggle one.

I normally love betting on Palhares against lower competition because I know he'll eventually find a limb. But Belcher is being overlooked here and he hasn't been subbed in 5 years. I think he can win the standup as well... but can only hope he stays on his feet. I'll take the + odds and fade the brain fart favorite.

Barry is still a question mark to me. The guy is highly likeable, but still lost when it hits the ground... I think his fight against Lavar is pretty evenly matched. While Barry may be more technical, he has never come across as the smartest fighter. Lavar could easily implement a brawling gameplan and put him to sleep. Lavar's chin has looked solid and I don't understand why so many think Barry will sub him or even get it to the ground.

As others have posted, Diaz/Miller is another evenly matched fight w/ a slight edge to Miller with his wrestling. I would guess this fight goes to a decision 4/5 times... so that is my play. These guys have chins of steel. Can't argue with getting Diaz at +200 or better either.

[MMAbetMASTA]

Horrible MMA picks imo.

.10 units on Miller @ -200. - He should be at -150 at the most. (Diaz is dangerous, especially in a five rounder)
.Belcher is going to get tooled by Palhares.
.Hendricks is live, Kos at -120 is too expensive. Five units on a coin flip.
.Johnson and Barry is also a coin flip, with a slight edge to Barry. I think johnson can win, but man, there are better and more solid fights this weekend to throw five units on, such as Liniker or Cholish.

Good luck !

lol...

dirty rooster on a hate storm!!! You better hope Libertine bombs otherwise I'm gonna post your picks and let Libetine rub it in hahaaaaaaaaaa They are solid picks, not the ones I'd make but I can see lib's reasoning and from what I've seen he's got legit mma knowledge and pics...

Yet I do agree with your latter statments dirt that there are better plays to consolidate your play money on...

However, and I know I just texted you about it, but in your post you broke the first rule of fight club, nucca...

[GigaOuts]

I am having trouble understanding prop.

1: Miller wins inside distance +364
2: Not Miller inside distance -533

It seems like 2 is likely the outcome because the huge juice you paid, but what is that means?
Miller win by dec?
Miller goes to distant (win or lose doesn't matter)?

Try to get into more prop bet, but lack understanding.

[Vaughany]

I am having trouble understanding prop.

1: Miller wins inside distance +364
2: Not Miller inside distance -533

It seems like 2 is likely the outcome because the huge juice you paid, but what is that means?
Miller win by dec?
Miller goes to distant (win or lose doesn't matter)?

Try to get into more prop bet, but lack understanding.

If you played Not Miller Inside distance u'd win as long as he doesnt win by sub or tko/ko. So if Miller wins by decision or Diaz wins by any method u'd win

[MMAbetMASTA]

If you played Not Miller Inside distance u'd win as long as he doesnt win by sub or tko/ko. So if Miller wins by decision or Diaz wins by any method u'd win

Man, now that I think about it, Not Milller itd at -530 isn't all that bad... I see no way of miller finishing nate... Nate finishing jim? Yes, but nate is durable as hell and I can't see him being finished by Jimbo.. If I had that prop option I'd probably pay that high juice as I think its damn near a 'lock'... and I never call anything a 'lock'...

[Vaughany]

Man, now that I think about it, Not Milller itd at -530 isn't all that bad... I see no way of miller finishing nate... Nate finishing jim? Yes, but nate is durable as hell and I can't see him being finished by Jimbo.. If I had that prop option I'd probably pay that high juice as I think its damn near a 'lock'... and I never call anything a 'lock'...

ha I actually think Miller has better chance of finishing than other way round! Both are as tough as hell, and why I've got starts round 2, starts round 3 and distance props in a number of parlays

[PunisherIND]

ha I actually think Miller has better chance of finishing than other way round! Both are as tough as hell, and why I've got starts round 2, starts round 3 and distance props in a number of parlays

starts round 3 @ -400 is a great bet imo.

[BIGDAY]

ha I actually think Miller has better chance of finishing than other way round! Both are as tough as hell, and why I've got starts round 2, starts round 3 and distance props in a number of parlays

Same here. I honestly think Miller can submit anyone and if this fights sees considerable time on the mat... He has a great chance at obtaining a sub.

Just my thoughts..

[DirtyX]

Same here. I honestly think Miller can submit anyone and if this fights sees considerable time on the mat... He has a great chance at obtaining a sub.

Just my thoughts..

I don't see Miller getting the sub on Diaz. NO WAY. Miller's only really impressive sub was against Olivera imo. Subbing Ludwig and Guillard doesn't mean much, and it def. doesn't mean Miller can sub Diaz. Diaz has the defense to fight off any sub attempts from Miller. If Diaz could take it the distance against Rory Mac and Maynard, I don't see Miller putting him away via strikes or Sub. Diaz is a live dog.

[Wanna Bet On It?]

I don't see Miller getting the sub on Diaz. NO WAY. Miller's only really impressive sub was against Olivera imo. Subbing Ludwig and Guillard doesn't mean much, and it def. doesn't mean Miller can sub Diaz. Diaz has the defense to fight off any sub attempts from Miller. If Diaz could take it the distance against Rory Mac and Maynard, I don't see Miller putting him away via strikes or Sub. Diaz is a live dog.

Hermes Franca has tapped Diaz before. It's definitely a possibility.

And what the hell does Diaz not getting finished by Rory or Maynard have anything to do with Miller's BJJ? Neither guy has anywhere near the submission skills as Jim Miller, not even Rory.

Miller could stop Diaz by TKO (cuts) or choke him out (RNC). I wouldn't bet on either but to deny a guy with an aggressive top game and someone who attacks submissions like Jim Miller would be extremely foolish.

[DirtyX]

Hermes Franca has tapped Diaz before. It's definitely a possibility.

And what the hell does Diaz not getting finished by Rory or Maynard have anything to do with Miller's BJJ? Neither guy has anywhere near the submission skills as Jim Miller, not even Rory.

Miller could stop Diaz by TKO (cuts) or choke him out (RNC). I wouldn't bet on either but to deny a guy with an aggressive top game and someone who attacks submissions like Jim Miller would be extremely foolish.

I'm not going to lie, Miller's sub against Olivera was impressive, so I am not saying it can't happen, but I just think Diaz has what it takes to defend. Maybe I am underestimating Miller's skills... We shall see..

[MMAbetMASTA]

I don't see Miller getting the sub on Diaz. NO WAY. Miller's only really impressive sub was against Olivera imo. Subbing Ludwig and Guillard doesn't mean much, and it def. doesn't mean Miller can sub Diaz. Diaz has the defense to fight off any sub attempts from Miller. If Diaz could take it the distance against Rory Mac and Maynard, I don't see Miller putting him away via strikes or Sub. Diaz is a live dog.

word.

Yea no way miller subs diaz me thinks, and even more so I don't see a tko either. on the other hand, the same could be said about diaz, hence the over on this fight or not miller itd / not diaz itd are solid plays, juicy lines or not...

[eligibletackle]

Interested in the haters on Kos @ EV opinions are

Kos is a tier above Hendricks amongst WWs, W or L on saturday, Kos is still above Hendricks. If Kos underrates his opponents or tries to be striker first / wrestler second, that's cool, I've been burned on that. Kos in a nationally television fight since leaving AKA, I think he's coming out for the W ala top contender match vs Daley. Hendricks is not close to Kos' level, it just sucks that Kos' hubris can give ppl like Hendricks a chance and thus such an iffy bet.

[DirtyX]

Interested in the haters on Kos @ EV opinions are

Kos is a tier above Hendricks amongst WWs, W or L on saturday, Kos is still above Hendricks. If Kos underrates his opponents or tries to be striker first / wrestler second, that's cool, I've been burned on that. Kos in a nationally television fight since leaving AKA, I think he's coming out for the W ala top contender match vs Daley. Hendricks is not close to Kos' level, it just sucks that Kos' hubris can give ppl like Hendricks a chance and thus such an iffy bet.

Hendricks just knocked out the number two WW in the division thus giving people the idea that he is a contender. His power is legit, and his hands are much better than Kos'. Also, Kos' chin is suspect, ala Paublo Thiago. So NO, Kos is not a tier above Hendricks if he loses on Saturday night. That is why they are fighting to determine who is superior. And you are sitting here, already making excuses for his possible loss that hasn't even happened yet... Jesus..

[Libert1ne]

Horrible MMA picks imo.

.10 units on Miller @ -200. - He should be at -150 at the most. (Diaz is dangerous, especially in a five rounder)
.Belcher is going to get tooled by Palhares.
.Hendricks is live, Kos at -120 is too expensive. Five units on a coin flip.
.Johnson and Barry is also a coin flip, with a slight edge to Barry. I think johnson can win, but man, there are better and more solid fights this weekend to throw five units on, such as Liniker or Cholish.

Good luck !

Lines like Miller/Diaz are interesting. Diaz probably won't look like a 2:1 underdog, but I suspect Miller will win 4 or 5 closeish rounds if it does go to decision due to top control and GnP. Let's be real: Diaz is getting put on his back, most probably in every round. It's going to be very hard for Diaz to win a decision and Miller is as tough as nails and has never lost by finish, and has only lost 3 decisions to the best of the best (Maynard/Edgar/Henderson). I think the line will probably get more steep for Miller closer to fight time, and that doesn't imply that the fight will be a one-sided beatdown. Diaz's weakness is Miller's strength, and Miller's weakness is not a Diaz-esque fighter.

As for the Hendricks Koscheck fight, are you really one to be talking about putting money on a coinflip? IIRC I read that you have money down on Hendricks @ -110. If you believe the fight is a coin flip perhaps you've made an error too?

Personally I don't think the fight will be a coinflip. I'm going to be adding more units SU on Koscheck at +105, and cover with Hendricks by KO/TKO for that bet aswell. Hype and public perception are heavily baked into these odds. Hendricks just knocked out the perennial #1 contender in 12 seconds. What people don't seem to realize is that the Hendricks/Fitch fight told us NOTHING about Hendricks that we didn't already know. All it told us was that he has one punch knockout power, and that Fitch stuck his chin out. People are also going to be looking at Koscheck's lackluster performance against Pierce and forget that he's a winner. He knows how to win fights. No one is pointing to Hendricks' split win over Pierce that could have gone the other way. I cannot believe people don't think Kos can replicate Story's success against Hendricks either... Do you really think Koscheck is going to stand and wang with a guy that is coming off a 12 second knockout? He's going to bully him with his superior wrestling. He has been focussing on wrestling in this training camp. In all likelihood Koscheck is going to smother him.

That's not to say that Hendricks doesn't have a legit chance. I think his best chance is a knockout win, which is why I'm covering my Koscheck bet with that. I would cap Koscheck as a -150ish favourite.

How can you say with such confidence that Belcher is going to get tooled by Palhares? even if you discount the chance that Palhares has a brain fart like in the Marquardt fight and throws it he still shouldn't be a -300 favourite over someone as talented as Belcher. Belcher could very well avoid the submissions for 15 minutes and outland him on the feet. I do think Palhares will win the fight more often than not, but -300 is ridiculous.

If you're giving a slight edge to Barry, then you should hit the +181 odds on Lavar. Slight edge would mean you peg Barry @ -115 or -120. I think this is the real coinflip fight. Either guy could get KTFO'd but I think Lavar has a better chin, and Barry has more versatile technique.

Also I'd just like to ask you if you're always this vitriolic or do you just have something against people disagreeing with your picks? The way you talk about it makes it seem that you're so certain that we should all tail you and we'd all be winners...

[DirtyX]

Lines like Miller/Diaz are interesting. Diaz probably won't look like a 2:1 underdog, but I suspect Miller will win 4 or 5 closeish rounds if it does go to decision due to top control and GnP. Let's be real: Diaz is getting put on his back, most probably in every round. It's going to be very hard for Diaz to win a decision and Miller is as tough as nails and has never lost by finish, and has only lost 3 decisions to the best of the best (Maynard/Edgar/Henderson). I think the line will probably get more steep for Miller closer to fight time, and that doesn't imply that the fight will be a one-sided beatdown. Diaz's weakness is Miller's strength, and Miller's weakness is not a Diaz-esque fighter.

As for the Hendricks Koscheck fight, are you really one to be talking about putting money on a coinflip? IIRC I read that you have money down on Hendricks @ -110. If you believe the fight is a coin flip perhaps you've made an error too?

Personally I don't think the fight will be a coinflip. I'm going to be adding more units SU on Koscheck at +105, and cover with Hendricks by KO/TKO for that bet aswell. Hype and public perception are heavily baked into these odds. Hendricks just knocked out the perennial #1 contender in 12 seconds. What people don't seem to realize is that the Hendricks/Fitch fight told us NOTHING about Hendricks that we didn't already know. All it told us was that he has one punch knockout power, and that Fitch stuck his chin out. People are also going to be looking at Koscheck's lackluster performance against Pierce and forget that he's a winner. He knows how to win fights. No one is pointing to Hendricks' split win over Pierce that could have gone the other way. I cannot believe people don't think Kos can replicate Story's success against Hendricks either... Do you really think Koscheck is going to stand and wang with a guy that is coming off a 12 second knockout? He's going to bully him with his superior wrestling. He has been focussing on wrestling in this training camp. In all likelihood Koscheck is going to smother him.

That's not to say that Hendricks doesn't have a legit chance. I think his best chance is a knockout win, which is why I'm covering my Koscheck bet with that. I would cap Koscheck as a -150ish favourite.

How can you say with such confidence that Belcher is going to get tooled by Palhares? even if you discount the chance that Palhares has a brain fart like in the Marquardt fight and throws it he still shouldn't be a -300 favourite over someone as talented as Belcher. Belcher could very well avoid the submissions for 15 minutes and outland him on the feet. I do think Palhares will win the fight more often than not, but -300 is ridiculous.

If you're giving a slight edge to Barry, then you should hit the +181 odds on Lavar. Slight edge would mean you peg Barry @ -115 or -120. I think this is the real coinflip fight. Either guy could get KTFO'd but I think Lavar has a better chin, and Barry has more versatile technique.

Also I'd just like to ask you if you're always this vitriolic or do you just have something against people disagreeing with your picks? The way you talk about it makes it seem that you're so certain that we should all tail you and we'd all be winners...

HAHA, no offense man, I wasn't trying to be rude or disrespectful...

I think you are underestimating how far Diaz has improved. This fight will be close, and Diaz may get put on his back, but he won't stay there. Miller is not subbing Diaz, I just don't see that happening. Miller subbed Guillard and Ludwig, which doesn't impress me that much. Granted, his sub over Olivera was impressive, but that seemed more like a brain fart by Charles. Diaz has the tools to defend against the sub, and he has the better stand up and a better gas tank imo. Unless Miller takes Diaz down immediately and keeps him there for 25 minutes, Diaz will find a way to win imo. I think Miller will come out strong in rounds one and two, and slowly fade towards the later rounds. Diaz wins the later rounds via superior standup, better technique and more gas in the tank in route to a decision victory.

Kos has the superior wrestling obviously, but his chin is suspect. Just like in the Diaz vs Miller fight, I don't think Kos takes Hendricks down and keeps him there for the whole fight. It seems like you are basically banking on Miller and Kos to hold down their opponents for the duration of their fights, and I just don't think that will happen. Hendricks has the standup and better hands. He also has enough wrestling to deal with Kos' shots and keep it standing or at least I hope so anyways.

Belcher is being overhyped here. I am not sold on him whatsoever. People are basically just banking on Palhares making a mental mistake like he did in the Marquart fight. Won't happen. While Palhares' fight IQ isn't the best, let's face it, Belcher is going to be put on his back.... Once that happens, he is going to have a guy with the best ground game in the division on top of him.. Honestly, what the hell has Belcher done to make you think he is going to outpoint Palhares and keep it standing... Not happening... Palhares will eventually get Belcher down and it's downhill for Belcher from there.


I basically agree with you on Lavar, but I haven't pulled the trigger yet. I am not sold on either guy, but Barry hasn't impressed me. Although Lavar seems reckless, and I could see him getting KOed early. He is at +160 on my book, and I really would like +180. I am waiting until the line hopefully moves in my favor. But I think Barry is being over hyped and Lavar can win. This fight, imo is a true coin flip, which is why I may just stay away from this fight completely. But at -200, I don't know how anyone can lay $ on Barry with confidence.

Anyways, sorry if I came off like a dick, wasn't trying to.

My point is this:

I would worry about Miller's gas tank, Kos' chin, and Belcher's limbs being ripped off...

[the josh]

Thinking of laying my last 1.5 units on a nick denis/john dodson parlay.

i think nick denis takes delorme pretty easily, better than him everywhere. dont know much about dodsons opponent tho, hows dodsons back game?

[Vaughany]

Full odds out on BM.

Like Krauss at +205, Denis at -205.

Was hoping to get Cholish as bigger dog, hopefully Castillo will get some action due to his name

[Beelzebubzy]

I posted under 146 by accident.

I played Denis (3u)
Cholish small .5u - dont know which way the line will move
Lineker - 2u ( I fade Green Lantern or whatever his name is

[Oblivian]

Thinking of laying my last 1.5 units on a nick denis/john dodson parlay.

i think nick denis takes delorme pretty easily, better than him everywhere. dont know much about dodsons opponent tho, hows dodsons back game?

Dodson can scramble. I will be very surprised if he is on his back for a long time at all.

[illmatick]

Cholish and Massenzio for me. Probably end up with something on Denis as well. .

[NunyaBidness]

Horrible MMA picks imo.

.10 units on Miller @ -200. - He should be at -150 at the most. (Diaz is dangerous, especially in a five rounder)
.Belcher is going to get tooled by Palhares.
.Hendricks is live, Kos at -120 is too expensive. Five units on a coin flip.
.Johnson and Barry is also a coin flip, with a slight edge to Barry. I think johnson can win, but man, there are better and more solid fights this weekend to throw five units on, such as Liniker or Cholish.

Good luck !

If you think Johnson/Barry is a coin flip, or even 55/45 Barry then +170 is insane value.

And to repeat myself again. Getting value somewhere doesn't preclude you from getting value elsewhere, especially with small MMA limits.

[NunyaBidness]

Full odds out on BM.

Like Krauss at +205, Denis at -205.

Was hoping to get Cholish as bigger dog, hopefully Castillo will get some action due to his name

Agree. I expect line on Krauss to improve though.

Surprised to get such a favorable line on Denis after his last performance.

[DirtyX]

If you think Johnson/Barry is a coin flip, or even 55/45 Barry then +170 is insane value.

And to repeat myself again. Getting value somewhere doesn't preclude you from getting value elsewhere, especially with small MMA limits.

I am waiting for Lavar to move to +180 odds and I will lay $$$ on him. He is at +160 on my book right now. I will be making a small play on him regardless, but I'll prob wait until fight night.

[the josh]

thinking going koschek decision for a unit. seems like hes looking to wrestlefuck, and i dont think he wins any other way, so youre essentially getting koschek for +200 for the only way hes gonna win.

he might tool hendricks on the feet, but even if he does, i dont see him knocking him out, dont see him subbing him.

not so much that i think koschek is gonna win, but koschek for +200 in a fight where its a coinflip, seems like good value.

[Beelzebubzy]

Jim Miller is a fight or two away from a title shot - Dana White

Nate Diaz wins and gets a title shot

[PunisherIND]

5dimes added some more prop lines. i made small plays on the following:

palhares by sub +145
dodson/elliot ITD +145
hathaway/krauss goes distance -210
castillo/cholish goes distance -180

[Vaughany]

5dimes added some more prop lines. i made small plays on the following:

palhares by sub +145
dodson/elliot ITD +145
hathaway/krauss goes distance -210
castillo/cholish goes distance -180

Good plays. Got Palhares sub at +120 or something. And Hath/Krauss distance at -210 as well in a parlay

[DirtyX]

5dimes added some more prop lines. i made small plays on the following:

palhares by sub +145
dodson/elliot ITD +145
hathaway/krauss goes distance -210
castillo/cholish goes distance -180

Man, I need to set up an account on 5 dimes. I never get an opportunity to bet Props like the ones listed above.. You guys have good things to say about 5 Dimes...? No problems cashing out etc...?

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

love 5dimes props and ability to parlay them

[The Fobfather]

Haven't had any problems with 5dimes.

[eligibletackle]

love Massenzio here, Vemola has no technique and banking on this guy at 185 to bully Massenzio for UD? eeek. MM all the way

[fosho14]

For the ppl in this thread who are predicting koscheck to win and are saying that he'll resort to his bread and butter or he'll get back to his roots and use his wrestling base to earn a victory. I'm completely confused with your train of thought. Hendricks wrestling is elite.. so elite that it earned him 2 national div1 championship titles and a 4-time all american status. I think hendricks wrestling credentials are strong enough to keep this on the feet, so I'm not sure how the ppl who are predicting koscheck to win, expect him to win? Do you guys think he's going to outstrike hendricks, because he's most likely not going to outwrestle him. Personally I have not been very impressed with kos's standup technique, so I will have to pick hendricks, but man what an impossible fight to call so ridiculously evenly matched.

[Imsmarterthanu]

For the ppl in this thread who are predicting koscheck to win and are saying that he'll resort to his bread and butter or he'll get back to his roots and use his wrestling base to earn a victory. I'm completely confused with your train of thought. Hendricks wrestling is elite.. so elite that it earned him 2 national div1 championship titles and a 4-time all american status. I think hendricks wrestling credentials are strong enough to keep this on the feet, so I'm not sure how the ppl who are predicting koscheck to win, expect him to win? Do you guys think he's going to outstrike hendricks, because he's most likely not going to outwrestle him. Personally I have not been very impressed with kos's standup technique, so I will have to pick hendricks, but man what an impossible fight to call so ridiculously evenly matched.

Phil Davis had stronger wrestling credentials than Rashad Evans and he got "outwrestled" by Rashad Evans

You have to remember it's not always about your credentials in MMA there
are so many things to worry about other than just getting taken down so your more open to making mistakes being on the bad end of a striking match etc where your defense becomes more open to attack.

Anyways I got this fight being a snoozer it's gonna be two guys keeping their distance picking their shots getting into clinches and boring the crowd to death looking for points.

possibly a draw