UFC on FX 1: Guillard vs Miller

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  • MMAbetMASTA
    SBR MVP
    • 05-24-11
    • 1931

    #71
    Originally posted by Vaughany
    IMO Tibau won rounds 1 and clearly round 3 of that fight with Guillard and deserved the win. Although he didnt do much damage he did take Guillard down a couple times in first round, once in second round and had most success in the third when he took him down and got full mount twice. ROnnys Torres also took his back and had very promising positions but Guillard showed much improved submission defence and composure. If Jim Miller gets in to similar positions as Tibau did then I think he'll be a lot more clinical and aggressive on the ground. I agree though that a smaller guy in Miller will not find it easy getting the takedown as Guillard has great balance and half-decent wrestling himself. I actually think a Lauzon situation is more likely with Miller dropping Guillard in second or third round - Guillard's tendency to keep his hands down is always a cause for concern. Roller tagged him with a left-hook that shook him a little. Clearly though, Guillard will probably be more cautious in this fight after the loss to Lauzon, and incorporate a similar gameplan to the Stephens fight (although he also got clipped early in tht fight but recovered), especially as he thinks it might be for a title shot. On the flipside I guess you could also argue that he may need to be aggressive and win in stunning fashion being first to finish Miller in order to get a title shot as I dont see how beating Miller by decision after losing to Lauzon is enough to be a contender. These questions are stopping me from playing Miller at -150 on Pinnacle at moment. The main reason for me liking Miller though is the clear mental/psychological advantage and physical toughness advantages that he has over Guillard. IMO I think these far outweigh any advantages that Guillard has in speed and striking. Miller is going in to this fight knowing that Guillard won't want to take him down (unlike with the Henderson fight) so only has to be concerned with Guillard's stand-up. Guillard on other hand has to be aware of Miller's grappling and also his under-rated striking. Miller outstruck Ludwig before submitting him, got the nod over Tibau because of his striking, only fighter to finish Shalorus, and even dropped Henderson in the second round of their fight despite getting battered for 3 rounds!


    Agree with every word, solid insight. Prob won't touch this either at the current price, but I gotta go with jim here and my reasoning is the same as what you've wrote above.

    I especially like how you mentioned his underrated striking. I remember people saying that about prince o persia and how he would beat jim striking and I highly disagreed. He gets more technical with each outing and I don't think he receives enough credit to that development. His grappling when in top control is also underrated and like you said very aggressive on the ground. Melvin is in trouble if he gets under jim... and I won't be the least bit surprised if the durable j. miller hangs on the feet, perhaps even inching out a UD win with a stand up battle that mixes in a few takedowns and/or scrambles. I give a power, size and small athletic advantage to guillard, that's about it. I think miller is near even on the feet and much better in a clinch or on the ground. I also think jim is much tougher and has a better chin. Its close and therefore I prob won't touch it at these odds, but my pick on paper is Mr. J Miller.

    And indeed, tibau won that fight (as did heathen stephens - melvin should have two more UD losses on his record imo...)
    Comment
    • Educ8d Degener8
      SBR MVP
      • 01-12-10
      • 3177

      #72
      Gabe!

      You gotta be salivating over Khabib Nurmagomedov's debut...

      Dude is 16-0 brah!
      Comment
      • Vaughany
        SBR Aristocracy
        • 03-07-10
        • 45563

        #73
        Originally posted by MMAbetMASTA


        Agree with every word, solid insight. Prob won't touch this either at the current price, but I gotta go with jim here and my reasoning is the same as what you've wrote above.

        I especially like how you mentioned his underrated striking. I remember people saying that about prince o persia and how he would beat jim striking and I highly disagreed. He gets more technical with each outing and I don't think he receives enough credit to that development. His grappling when in top control is also underrated and like you said very aggressive on the ground. Melvin is in trouble if he gets under jim... and I won't be the least bit surprised if the durable j. miller hangs on the feet, perhaps even inching out a UD win with a stand up battle that mixes in a few takedowns and/or scrambles. I give a power, size and small athletic advantage to guillard, that's about it. I think miller is near even on the feet and much better in a clinch or on the ground. I also think jim is much tougher and has a better chin. Its close and therefore I prob won't touch it at these odds, but my pick on paper is Mr. J Miller.

        And indeed, tibau won that fight (as did heathen stephens - melvin should have two more UD losses on his record imo...)
        Cheers bro. Yeah, and some argued tht he lost the Ronnys Torres fight which was very close
        Comment
        • Vaughany
          SBR Aristocracy
          • 03-07-10
          • 45563

          #74
          Originally posted by Educ8d Degener8
          Gabe!

          You gotta be salivating over Khabib Nurmagomedov's debut...

          Dude is 16-0 brah!
          Comment
          • gabe
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 09-12-11
            • 7405

            #75
            Originally posted by Educ8d Degener8
            Gabe!

            You gotta be salivating over Khabib Nurmagomedov's debut...

            Dude is 16-0 brah!
            Actually, I am. I'm on him pretty big.

            He's fighting a dude with 1 loss, and that to Jim Miller... not someone washed-up like Gonzaga... This reflects how confident I am in this guy.
            Comment
            • Vaughany
              SBR Aristocracy
              • 03-07-10
              • 45563

              #76
              Originally posted by gabe
              Actually, I am. I'm on him pretty big.

              He's fighting a dude with 1 loss, and that to Jim Miller... not someone washed-up like Gonzaga... This reflects how confident I am in this guy.
              Is this a another gut play or do u have a breakdown on what you feel will be his advantages, how he matches up well with the "dude", etc...? And how do u know your on him pretty big when u having seen the odds yet? Are u still going to play him even if he's a -150 favourite or a +150 underdog for instance?
              Comment
              • gabe
                SBR Hall of Famer
                • 09-12-11
                • 7405

                #77
                Originally posted by Vaughany
                Is this a another gut play or do u have a breakdown on what you feel will be his advantages, how he matches up well with the "dude", etc...? And how do u know your on him pretty big when u having seen the odds yet? Are u still going to play him even if he's a -150 favourite or a +150 underdog for instance?
                I expect him to be a nice dog, but would even take him as a favorite.

                Might write up a breakdown with my picks, if I'm not too lazy. (and if I post my picks) I've had my eye on this fight for a while.
                Comment
                • Vaughany
                  SBR Aristocracy
                  • 03-07-10
                  • 45563

                  #78
                  Will look forward to it Gabe. It's an intriguing match-up for sure...battle of the Eastern block
                  Comment
                  • Educ8d Degener8
                    SBR MVP
                    • 01-12-10
                    • 3177

                    #79
                    Some recent Khabib fights for review...

                    8/2011


                    7/2011


                    4/2011
                    Comment
                    • Beelzebubzy
                      SBR Hall of Famer
                      • 06-06-11
                      • 6995

                      #80
                      Thanks ED
                      Comment
                      • Rod_M
                        SBR MVP
                        • 10-31-09
                        • 1282

                        #81
                        Originally posted by Vaughany
                        Couldnt this be applied to any event?! When is it ever a good card if u lose money!
                        Only one name came to mind after reading this sentence, Cerrone...
                        Comment
                        • ghost kid
                          SBR Sharp
                          • 09-23-08
                          • 280

                          #82
                          Love the UFC. Watch every card. But I gotta say. Weak FX debut. Ludwig-Neer? Morecraft-Barry? Should have done better than this.
                          Comment
                          • SportsPedagogy
                            SBR MVP
                            • 02-13-11
                            • 3691

                            #83
                            Originally posted by ghost kid
                            Love the UFC. Watch every card. But I gotta say. Weak FX debut. Ludwig-Neer? Morecraft-Barry? Should have done better than this.
                            Yeah, why would the UFC put these strikers vs each other for the first FX card ?
                            Comment
                            • ghost kid
                              SBR Sharp
                              • 09-23-08
                              • 280

                              #84
                              Originally posted by SportsPedagogy
                              Yeah, why would the UFC put these strikers vs each other for the first FX card ?
                              First time in history Morecraft has been referred to as a "striker". Not exactly. Punching bag. Wrestler. Brute. But not striker.
                              Comment
                              • MMAbetMASTA
                                SBR MVP
                                • 05-24-11
                                • 1931

                                #85
                                Originally posted by ghost kid
                                Love the UFC. Watch every card. But I gotta say. Weak FX debut. Ludwig-Neer? Morecraft-Barry? Should have done better than this.
                                I do my best not to bitch about events and fight cards, as we should all be grateful that there is so much mma now pretty much every week, but I gotta agree...

                                this is a weak card for a debut show. Still looking forward to it as there are a few intriguing match ups, including the main event which I think is a solid match up, but yea could have been a bit more stacked and is kind of lacking for a debut show.
                                Comment
                                • MMAbetMASTA
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 05-24-11
                                  • 1931

                                  #86
                                  Originally posted by ghost kid
                                  First time in history Morecraft has been referred to as a "striker". Not exactly. Punching bag. Wrestler. Brute. But not striker.
                                  and I wouldn't call neer a striker either - he'd be silly to plan on having a prolonged stand up battle with bang.
                                  Comment
                                  • SportsPedagogy
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 02-13-11
                                    • 3691

                                    #87
                                    Neer has 17 KO/TKO victories and I have never heard moorecraft refered to as a wrestler since he never wrestled. He does have powerhands and will stand and bang. Probably not with Pat though, but Pat has come along way with his TDD and will present a problem for Moorecraft.
                                    Comment
                                    • sideloaded
                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                      • 08-21-10
                                      • 7561

                                      #88
                                      SportsPedagogy thinks Morecraft is a k-1 level striker

                                      BTW, this asshole is following me around posting shogun gifs from the jones fight. What a sad pathetic loser.
                                      Comment
                                      • SportsPedagogy
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 02-13-11
                                        • 3691

                                        #89
                                        Originally posted by sideloaded
                                        SportsPedagogy thinks Morecraft is a k-1 level striker

                                        BTW, this asshole is following me around posting shogun gifs from the jones fight. What a sad pathetic loser.
                                        LOL I am not following you. My coach is fighting on this card thats why i am here. Besides, i have had about 2 losing UFC cards ... i would imagine my input to be valuable. I also never said Moorecraft was k-1 level, but he does stand and bang, he is a big slow target for Barry to chip away at and get a highlight reel KO

                                        Nobody asked you to come into a thread that i was posting in, confess your love to Emily_Hanes only to find out that she is a he.

                                        Get over yourself pal
                                        Comment
                                        • sideloaded
                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                          • 08-21-10
                                          • 7561

                                          #90
                                          Oh a god another mma capper who's never lost. and another guy using "pal"
                                          Last edited by sideloaded; 01-16-12, 08:38 PM.
                                          Comment
                                          • SportsPedagogy
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 02-13-11
                                            • 3691

                                            #91
                                            Originally posted by sideloaded
                                            Oh a god another mma capper who's never lost. and another guy using "pal"
                                            Here ya go pal


                                            Sports betting and handicapping forum: discuss picks, odds, and predictions for upcoming games and results on latest bets.
                                            Comment
                                            • sideloaded
                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                              • 08-21-10
                                              • 7561

                                              #92
                                              no one gives a shit
                                              Comment
                                              • FightFightFight
                                                SBR Wise Guy
                                                • 03-21-11
                                                • 594

                                                #93
                                                Live 5 was my worst night since I started betting. And I remember that +1600, because I immediately tailed u on it for +3.5u. Good eye.
                                                Comment
                                                • FightFightFight
                                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                                  • 03-21-11
                                                  • 594

                                                  #94
                                                  Originally posted by sideloaded
                                                  no one gives a shit
                                                  This. We all take what you have to say with a large grain of salt.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • gabe
                                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                                    • 09-12-11
                                                    • 7405

                                                    #95
                                                    The Sheldon of MMA.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • SportsPedagogy
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 02-13-11
                                                      • 3691

                                                      #96
                                                      Originally posted by sideloaded
                                                      no one gives a shit
                                                      No, Nobody gives a shit about me posting a Shogun getting his whopped .gif ... im sure people will find my plays pretty interesting.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • SportsPedagogy
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 02-13-11
                                                        • 3691

                                                        #97
                                                        Originally posted by FightFightFight
                                                        Live 5 was my worst night since I started betting. And I remember that +1600, because I immediately tailed u on it for +3.5u. Good eye.
                                                        Paid for my tickets to that UFC
                                                        Comment
                                                        • FightFightFight
                                                          SBR Wise Guy
                                                          • 03-21-11
                                                          • 594

                                                          #98
                                                          Originally posted by ghost kid
                                                          Love the UFC. Watch every card. But I gotta say. Weak FX debut. Ludwig-Neer? Morecraft-Barry? Should have done better than this.
                                                          Name wise, worst card I've ever seen, but actually really lookIng forward to it. Some matchups there that could produce fireworks. Joe silva is the man.Have already decided I won't be laying on fotn props as there could easily be several candidates.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • sideloaded
                                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                                            • 08-21-10
                                                            • 7561

                                                            #99
                                                            Originally posted by SportsPedagogy
                                                            No, Nobody gives a shit about me posting a Shogun getting his whopped .gif ... im sure people will find my plays pretty interesting.
                                                            you're not even making sense. No one cares about you touting your picks.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • gabe
                                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                                              • 09-12-11
                                                              • 7405

                                                              #100
                                                              Why aren't lines up yet?! Damnit!!
                                                              Comment
                                                              • sideloaded
                                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                • 08-21-10
                                                                • 7561

                                                                #101
                                                                Originally posted by FightFightFight
                                                                This. We all take what you have to say with a large grain of salt.
                                                                wtf is your problem?
                                                                Comment
                                                                • SportsPedagogy
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 02-13-11
                                                                  • 3691

                                                                  #102
                                                                  Originally posted by sideloaded
                                                                  you're not even making sense. No one cares about you touting your picks.
                                                                  i have never once touted my picks LMAO... you tried to call me out so i showed you how wrong you were.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • gabe
                                                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                    • 09-12-11
                                                                    • 7405

                                                                    #103
                                                                    Originally posted by sideloaded
                                                                    you're not even making sense. No one cares about you touting your picks.
                                                                    quit giving the guy a hard time, man. you're not interested in his insight, but maybe others are. if you don't care, then just ignore what he says, it's that easy. don't waste thread space with your cyber bullying.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • FightFightFight
                                                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                                                      • 03-21-11
                                                                      • 594

                                                                      #104
                                                                      Originally posted by sideloaded
                                                                      wtf is your problem?
                                                                      I take the right side of a fight too often.
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • sideloaded
                                                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                        • 08-21-10
                                                                        • 7561

                                                                        #105
                                                                        Originally posted by gabe
                                                                        quit giving the guy a hard time, man. you're not interested in his insight, but maybe others are. if you don't care, then just ignore what he says, it's that easy. don't waste thread space with your cyber bullying.
                                                                        I'm cyber bullying? I think this guy started it with posting shoguns gifs then saying he's god's gift to handicapping. Like I said no one cares. Can't wait till K-1 level striker Morecraft puts it on Barry.
                                                                        Last edited by sideloaded; 01-16-12, 10:10 PM.
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