Christ like MMA betting

**NunyaBidness** · 08-15-12, 11:27 AM

Originally posted by gabe

I see 95% favorites? Huh? Talking about huge favorites and you're mentioning +250... yeah, I'm really lost.

Dude, you just said this in post #1379

"Sometimes I know fighters are going to win for sure, and they're +250 underdogs."

**DublinMeUp** · 08-15-12, 11:46 AM

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

Taking out the numbers doesn't mean its not math.

yeah but maybe gabe doesn't realise lol

**Crassus** · 08-15-12, 01:47 PM

Originally posted by gabe

Yeah, I still don't see why it's bad to put high juiced favs in parlays when you think they're gonna win but aren't worth betting straight up... Can anybody explain why it's a bad idea without it being a lesson in algebra? if it was such a bad idea, I wouldn't end up cashing them most of the time.

Think of parlays like this Gabe.

You have Ronda and Jacare both at -550 and you parlay them together. You don't want to pay -550 on each straight up so you parlay em. You bet $200 on them and get $79.34 in profit and you walk away happy.

BUT you're missing something. Here's how I like to sort of think of parlays.

You bet all $200 on Jacare at -550 and you make $36.36, you then take the $236.36 and bet it on Ronda, and you win $42.97, so you walk away with $79.33.

The parlay gives you slightly different odds because you

A) lock in the odds so last minute money on Ronda doesn't change the payout
B) don't have to rely on live-betting

That's the way to think of Parlays gabe. You're just making straight plays on each one consecutively and the book is making that easier for a slight cut of the profits.

**gabe** · 08-15-12, 03:59 PM

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

Dude, you just said this in post #1379

"Sometimes I know fighters are going to win for sure, and they're +250 underdogs."

We're on post #1436 now, why don't you bring up something from post #1028 too? lol you bring up something from a while ago and expect me to know what you're talking about. the conversation had moved on. if you're gonna bring up something from a while ago, say so, so i'm not confused.

**gabe** · 08-15-12, 04:01 PM

Originally posted by Crassus

Think of parlays like this Gabe.

You have Ronda and Jacare both at -550 and you parlay them together. You don't want to pay -550 on each straight up so you parlay em. You bet $200 on them and get $79.34 in profit and you walk away happy.

BUT you're missing something. Here's how I like to sort of think of parlays.

You bet all $200 on Jacare at -550 and you make $36.36, you then take the $236.36 and bet it on Ronda, and you win $42.97, so you walk away with $79.33.

The parlay gives you slightly different odds because you

A) lock in the odds so last minute money on Ronda doesn't change the payout
B) don't have to rely on live-betting

That's the way to think of Parlays gabe. You're just making straight plays on each one consecutively and the book is making that easier for a slight cut of the profits.

So you're saying rather than parlaying, I'd be better off playing them straight, then risking all the winnings on the following play, one after another?

**Crassus** · 08-15-12, 04:03 PM

Originally posted by gabe

So you're saying rather than parlaying, I'd be better off playing them straight, then risking all the winnings on the following play, one after another?

If that's an option...well yeah. And if you're confident the odds won't change.

**NunyaBidness** · 08-15-12, 04:11 PM

Originally posted by gabe

So you're saying rather than parlaying, I'd be better off playing them straight, then risking all the winnings on the following play, one after another?

No, he's saying that's exactly what you're already doing when you place a parlay.

**NunyaBidness** · 08-15-12, 04:13 PM

Originally posted by gabe

We're on post #1436 now, why don't you bring up something from post #1028 too? lol you bring up something from a while ago and expect me to know what you're talking about. the conversation had moved on. if you're gonna bring up something from a while ago, say so, so i'm not confused.

Your memory doesn't reach back 3 days? And furthermore you're not responsible for anything you thought and said prior to this moment in time?

**gabe** · 08-15-12, 04:13 PM

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

No, he's saying that's exactly what you're already doing when you place a parlay.

What is his advice to me? I don't get it.

**Crassus** · 08-15-12, 04:14 PM

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

No, he's saying that's exactly what you're already doing when you place a parlay.

Can't it be both?

**NunyaBidness** · 08-15-12, 04:17 PM

Originally posted by gabe

What is his advice to me? I don't get it.

His advice is, 'learn to understand that parlays aren't magic'.

**Vaughany** · 08-15-12, 04:21 PM

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

No, he's saying that's exactly what you're already doing when you place a parlay.

Bingo, so when you are saying I dont see value in Fighter X at -400 but then put him in parlays it is the same thing

**Jesus Christ** · 08-17-12, 10:05 PM

YTD 49-49-2 +$6,386.72
2-2 last week -490ish...just wanted to update my record before it got buried back in the thread.

No plays for Strikeforce just can't find anything I like..might get on some props if they open.

**Kaladarus** · 08-17-12, 11:05 PM

Originally posted by gabe

What is his advice to me? I don't get it.

It's not advice. He is just saying that a parlay is a series of straight plays where you are taking your initial investment combined with your winnings and betting it again.

He is just trying to show you that you are playing the fighters straight even though you are using a parlay.

A very simple example is if you have a 5 fighter parlay. Your investment doesn't really matter, but lets just say you risked $50 to win $450. If you did that exact same parlay, but added a 6th fighter and the 6th fighter is -500, you will now win an extra $100. $50+$450=$500, $500 at -$500 wins you another $100.

This parlay would be the exact same thing as just taking your $500 at the end of the 5 fighter parlay and then later risking it on that -500 favorite. You would be at the exact same place.

I don't think there is anything wrong with your parlays. Once you understand what you are doing though you should be able to make more money betting.

Just think of a parlay as a series of straight bets.

**gabe** · 08-17-12, 11:57 PM

Originally posted by Kaladarus

It's not advice. He is just saying that a parlay is a series of straight plays where you are taking your initial investment combined with your winnings and betting it again.

He is just trying to show you that you are playing the fighters straight even though you are using a parlay.

A very simple example is if you have a 5 fighter parlay. Your investment doesn't really matter, but lets just say you risked $50 to win $450. If you did that exact same parlay, but added a 6th fighter and the 6th fighter is -500, you will now win an extra $100. $50+$450=$500, $500 at -$500 wins you another $100.

This parlay would be the exact same thing as just taking your $500 at the end of the 5 fighter parlay and then later risking it on that -500 favorite. You would be at the exact same place.

I don't think there is anything wrong with your parlays. Once you understand what you are doing though you should be able to make more money betting.

Just think of a parlay as a series of straight bets.

I understand now. Thanks.

**Kaladarus** · 08-18-12, 12:32 AM

No problem, I think you should continue doing your parlays for the most part. Even though you think you don't understand the math you usually bet less on more risky parlays and more on safer ones so I think you are fine there.

Only advice is to try to figure out the line movements on fight night. You usually do this anyways. If you think someone may be a better price closer to the fight leave them out of the parlay and bet them straight when the time comes.

**NunyaBidness** · 08-18-12, 01:01 AM

Originally posted by Kaladarus

Only advice is to try to figure out the line movements on fight night. You usually do this anyways. If you think someone may be a better price closer to the fight leave them out of the parlay and bet them straight when the time comes.

Ding ding ding. Straight bets allow more flexibility than parlays.

**Grabaka** · 08-18-12, 01:06 AM

Wow Kaladarus earns a cookie! You made it!

**Grabaka** · 08-18-12, 01:11 AM

Originally posted by Kaladarus

No problem, I think you should continue doing your parlays for the most part. Even though you think you don't understand the math you usually bet less on more risky parlays and more on safer ones so I think you are fine there.

Only advice is to try to figure out the line movements on fight night. You usually do this anyways. If you think someone may be a better price closer to the fight leave them out of the parlay and bet them straight when the time comes.

I agree mostly with Kaladarus. You are very good with picks and can make good parlays. My advice is just dont go over-confident as you have before playing all or most your parlays with the same leg. Everyone here is guilty of not liking a price and just throw it in a parlay but as it is a "bad bet" you dont go big on it.

**TheCalculator** · 08-18-12, 01:21 AM

Originally posted by Grabaka

Wow Kaladarus earns a cookie! You made it!

Gabe can bake him a batch of herb cookies!

**gabe** · 08-18-12, 01:32 AM

Originally posted by Grabaka

I agree mostly with Kaladarus. You are very good with picks and can make good parlays. My advice is just dont go over-confident as you have before playing all or most your parlays with the same leg. Everyone here is guilty of not liking a price and just throw it in a parlay but as it is a "bad bet" you dont go big on it.

Yeah, lesson learned on that.

**Jesus Christ** · 08-18-12, 05:28 PM

Originally posted by Jesus Christ

YTD 49-49-2 +$6,386.72
2-2 last week -490ish...just wanted to update my record before it got buried back in the thread.

No plays for Strikeforce just can't find anything I like..might get on some props if they open.

Changed my mind...one play and not a lot of analysis...I like Green's wrestling and power to win a decision over Ricehouse..I think Ricehouse's best route to victory is if he finds a sub from his back....but I don't see it..I'll say Bobby Green wins via split decision (30-27, 28-29, 30-27)

**Jesus Christ** · 08-18-12, 07:30 PM

The Burger King won and I have a rare winning night betting Strikeforce

Good Luck to everyone for the rest of the fights.

**Giroux** · 08-18-12, 07:44 PM

Whoops, I missed it on the livestream...but got the W. Nice work JC!

**gabe** · 08-22-12, 07:53 PM

What's the word?

**Jesus Christ** · 08-22-12, 09:23 PM

I'm gonna be on Vegh...I think his style of striking is gonna give Wiuff a lot of problems..plus he is gonna be able to test his questionable chin...I wish I got the earlier numbers but Dimes really makes me wait before they raise the limit.

**Jesus Christ** · 08-22-12, 09:25 PM

It's BS that I'm still at an 100$ limit at this stage....I got a friend who plays on Dimes that says his is at 250$ right now...I dunno what opener I hit a ways back that pissed em off

**Educ8d Degener8** · 08-22-12, 09:31 PM

Originally posted by gabe

What's the word?

**gabe** · 08-22-12, 09:41 PM

Damn, I'm loving Wiuff in this fight... Was hoping we'd be on the same side... Oh well, BOL.

**Dillonious Monk** · 08-23-12, 01:16 AM

I like the value in Attila. Wiuff's striking is horrible, and Vegh seems to have good enough takedown D to stop someone who doesn't really set their takedowns up at all.

I got him in a parlay with Nogueira that pays 3-1.

**Grabaka** · 08-23-12, 01:42 AM

Im with Vegh too. Lets do this Jesus!

**bjpenn85** · 08-23-12, 01:56 AM

Do you think Attila is active enough on the feet? Against Newton, he basically just stood there and didnt throw punches at all. The fact that he probably is going to get controlled in the clinch and or maybe taken down, may make him even more hesitant to throw than he was in his last fight. So is +175 enough to pay for a KO? Because if its going all three round, i doubt that vegh is the winner.

**Grabaka** · 08-23-12, 02:22 AM

I found worst when they over-commit against a wrestler. I feel positive Vegh will try to find him at the end of his jab and be slow and methodical. Im more worried about him being controlled in the clinch for big amounts of time. Hes slow and gasses but not as much as Wiuff. Wiuff is so slow.

**Vaughany** · 08-23-12, 02:53 AM

Originally posted by Jesus Christ

It's BS that I'm still at an 100$ limit at this stage....I got a friend who plays on Dimes that says his is at 250$ right now...I dunno what opener I hit a ways back that pissed em off

yeah think mine is the same

**bjpenn85** · 08-23-12, 03:02 AM

Mee to. Over the weekend i was restricted to the point its not any point to play at skybet. I tried to wager for 230 dollars, i was only allowed for 6 dollars. So now im thrown out of skybet,paddypower and expekt. Luckily, there will always be new bookies. I just hope it never happens with pinnacle, 5dimes or unibet.