UFC on FOX 2 (Jan 28th 2012)

[PunisherIND]

A lot of my "arbs" when I take two opposing fighters to win are actually sometimes "quasi-arbs" as a lot of books offer the "draw" option, so there is sometimes the very small chance that they draw and I lose both sides of the bet.

It helps (me, at least) to think what you're actually betting. In this case, you're betting "Fight won't be stopped between rounds 2 and 3" at -598.

thank you guys for the knowledge. it is appreciated.

V, when you take two opposing fighters straight up, if the fight is a draw wouldn't that result in a push or no-bet? i was under the impression that a draw would only result in a losing bet if it was a prop line.

Nunya, i'm also curious how you calculated those odds, if it isnt too difficult to explain.

[NunyaBidness]

Nunya, how were you able to calculate that? Could you educate a beginner?

Actually, I posted the wrong number earlier. Real price is -864.

Easiest method, is to use the arb calculator here:

http://www.sbrforum.com/betting-tools/arbitrage-calculator/

Enter the two prices, in this case -170 and +275, the order doesn't matter. Hit Calculate:

You'll get an output of:
Bet #2: $42.35
Total Bet: $142.35
$ Profit: $16.47
% Profit: 11.5702%

You are risking $142.35 in total bets to win $16.47

Take 100 and divide by 16.47 (the profit amount) and you will get 6.07. Multiply total bet ($142.35) by this 6.07 and you will get 864. Or $864 to win $100. -864

[NunyaBidness]

If you play around with this you'll find that you can often manufacture your own lines.

For example, sometimes on seperate books you can fight prices like Fighter A by decision +300 and Fighter B by decision +250, which is roughly equivilant to "Fight goes to decision" at -115. If the fair market line is -116 or lower you have a positive EV bet.

You can pair fighter A inside with fighter A by decision to create a line for "Fighter A" Fighter A inside with Fighter B inside to create "Does not go distance" etc.

[PunisherIND]

If you play around with this you'll find that you can often manufacture your own lines.

For example, sometimes on seperate books you can fight prices like Fighter A by decision +300 and Fighter B by decision +250, which is roughly equivilant to "Fight goes to decision" at -115. If the fair market line is -116 or lower you have a positive EV bet.

You can pair fighter A inside with fighter A by decision to create a line for "Fighter A" Fighter A inside with Fighter B inside to create "Does not go distance" etc.

this is real good stuff. thanks man.

[Vaughany]

thank you guys for the knowledge. it is appreciated.

V, when you take two opposing fighters straight up, if the fight is a draw wouldn't that result in a push or no-bet? i was under the impression that a draw would only result in a losing bet if it was a prop line.

Nunya, i'm also curious how you calculated those odds, if it isnt too difficult to explain.

A couple Euro books such as bluesquare offer the "draw" line at +3300 or something for each fight, so if you bet on a fighter using them then it wouldn't be a push. But yeah, for BM, Sportbet, Pinnacle and most decent books the draw bet isn't an option so it would just be a push if the fight was a draw.

[gabe]

I take back 40% of the times I've called Nunya an idiot. (that's a lot)

Nun, move out West. Let's be roomies, bud.

[Vaughany]

[Educ8d Degener8]

Get out of here with all that math sh*t Nunya!

Educ8d Degener8
47% ROI in my 401k

[NunyaBidness]

I take back 40% of the times I've called Nunya an idiot. (that's a lot)

Nun, move out West. Let's be roomies, bud.

You don't have to take back the times you called me an idiot. Just take back everytime you've said that I never contribute anything to the forum.

Packing my bags now. Got room for my wife and kids? Somewhere to tie up my goats?

[NunyaBidness]

Get out of here with all that math sh*t Nunya!

Educ8d Degener8
47% ROI in my 401k

Is that ROI lifetime or yearly? Could be a brag, or maybe not!

[The Fobfather]

Actually, I posted the wrong number earlier. Real price is -864. Easiest method, is to use the arb calculator here: http://www.sbrforum.com/betting-tool...ge-calculator/ Enter the two prices, in this case -170 and +275, the order doesn't matter. Hit Calculate: You'll get an output of: Bet #2: $42.35 Total Bet: $142.35 $ Profit: $16.47 % Profit: 11.5702% You are risking $142.35 in total bets to win $16.47 Take 100 and divide by 16.47 (the profit amount) and you will get 6.07. Multiply total bet ($142.35) by this 6.07 and you will get 864. Or $864 to win $100. -864

Great read. Thx!!

[Beelzebubzy]

thanks for that link dude.

[gabe]

You don't have to take back the times you called me an idiot. Just take back everytime you've said that I never contribute anything to the forum.

Packing my bags now. Got room for my wife and kids? Somewhere to tie up my goats?

We'll make enough by UFC 155 to move into a much bigger, nicer place.

We'll also have a nice big gym in our backyard, so we'll invite fighters who have screwed us over to come train at our gym. Except, it'll be completely set-up with Home Alone-esque traps. I can't wait to get Eric Schafer in there.

[NunyaBidness]

[Beelzebubzy]

5u Pat Curran -255

[gabe]

hahaha

[GunShard]

lol @ Chael Sonnen 28:10 and 48:10

[Vaughany]

Jus awkward now with some of Chael's lines

[Beelzebubzy]

.2u on Weidman by Decision at +120. Wall and Stall
.25u on Evans by KO, TKO, or DQ +230.

[NunyaBidness]

.2u on Weidman by Decision at +120.

Where did you get this line at? +200 is available at Bovada.

[Vaughany]

yee +120 is pretty weak. What's fight to go distance on bovada?

[Beelzebubzy]

I dont have a Bodog 2.0. That line is via Bookmaker.

[NunyaBidness]

Avoid bookmaker's props whenever possible, they juice the hell out of em, 40% in this case. Do you have 5d? They'll have a better line for sure when they release it.

Compared to about 20% at bodog and 12% at 5d.

[NunyaBidness]

yee +120 is pretty weak. What's fight to go distance on bovada?

Not available.

Completes 2 rounds is -400/+250

Big movement on the 5d line there, opened at -380/+265 to go the distance, bet down to -215/+165.

[Beelzebubzy]

Avoid bookmaker's props whenever possible, they juice the hell out of em, 40% in this case. Do you have 5d? They'll have a better line for sure when they release it.

Compared to about 20% at bodog and 12% at 5d.

I dont have 5 dimes at this time. I will be getting one soon probably 2 weeks or so.

[NunyaBidness]

Good, you can get that pro account same time and start enjoying the free pizza with your reduced juice.

[Educ8d Degener8]

Good, you can get that pro account same time and start enjoying the free pizza with your reduced juice.

I'm probably gonna do the same with Bookmaker (since I have 5dimes now already).... Get me some free Omaha Steaks and Godiva chocolates. 'Cos I'm highfalutin like that.

[NunyaBidness]

I'm probably gonna do the same with Bookmaker (since I have 5dimes now already).... Get me some free Omaha Steaks and Godiva chocolates. 'Cos I'm highfalutin like that.

[Vaughany]

Not available.

Completes 2 rounds is -400/+250

Big movement on the 5d line there, opened at -380/+265 to go the distance, bet down to -215/+165.

Yeah I maxed the not distance twice and arbed with Fight goes distance at -200

[Beelzebubzy]

Anybody thinking local money will come in on Russow?

[The HOFF]

The full UFC on FOX 2 weigh-in results include:

MAIN CARD (FOX)

• Phil Davis (205) vs. Rashad Evans (205)
• Michael Bisping (185) vs. Chael Sonnen (185)
• Demian Maia (186) vs. Chris Weidman (185)

PRELIMINARY CARD (FUEL TV)

• Evan Dunham (155) vs. Nik Lentz (155)
• John-Olav Einemo (253) vs. Mike Russow (251)
• George Roop (145) vs. Cub Swanson (145)
• Charles Oliveira (144) vs. Eric Wisely (145)
• Michael Johnson (156) vs. Shane Roller (156)
• Joey Beltran (228) vs. Lavar Johnson (252)

PRELIMINARY CARD (Facebook)

• Chris Camozzi (185) vs. Dustin Jacoby (185)

[The HOFF]

[The HOFF]

[The HOFF]

[The HOFF]