UFC on FOX 2 (Jan 28th 2012)

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

Mitch Gagnon is unable to cross into the U.S. for a fight with Johnny Bedford forcing the promotion to scrap the booking at UFC on FOX 2.

[Beelzebubzy]

Mitch Gagnon is unable to cross into the U.S. for a fight with Johnny Bedford forcing the promotion to scrap the booking at UFC on FOX 2.

thats like missing weight to me --- a fighter should have his veesa situation figured out

[FreddDS]

thats like missing weight to me --- a fighter should have his veesa situation figured out

Agreed, and that's why Bedford is still getting his show money. Nice of the UFC to do that.

[PunisherIND]

Mitch Gagnon is unable to cross into the U.S. for a fight with Johnny Bedford forcing the promotion to scrap the booking at UFC on FOX 2.

i was wondering why there wasnt a betting line for this fight. thanks for the info.

[koscheckbaby]

Yeah I expect one of the undercard fights to get one of the awards - SOTN seems most likely. I think Camozzi/Jacoby could be a good outsider for FOTN as well. Dana will probably give it to one of the main fights tho. He loves to give Bisping bonuses!

I know and I hate Dana White for it. Bisping ran away like a faggotty pussy against Chris Leben. Yet, he got a fight of the night bonus for that display of vagina.

[Beelzebubzy]

Davis is at +170

I have 5u on Shad at -165,155,145,

Let it ride or arb it out?

[Vaughany]

Hasnt he got a knee injury?

[The Fobfather]

I had Rashad at -145, but I arbed out on Davis at +170. Thinking more and more that Davis will avoid the strikes and grind it out against the cage and on the ground.

[Vaughany]

Davis is at +170

I have 5u on Shad at -165,155,145,

Let it ride or arb it out?

I adding another 30 units on Rashad earlier at -162.5. Im gonna wait until fight night tho and see if Davis hits closer to +200 before arbing...not beyond the realms of possibility...although he's more likely to stick between +160 and +180

[NunyaBidness]

Davis is at +170

I have 5u on Shad at -165,155,145,

Let it ride or arb it out?

It depends on what you think the fair price is.

If you made the original bet with the intention to arb it out with the expectation that the line would move the way it did, sure.

If you made the original bet because you thought it had value, why would you throw away the same value?

It's like buying a $20 bill for $10, and then selling it to the next guy for $12.

[The Fobfather]

Hasnt he got a knee injury?

Vaughany, who were you referring to?

[PunisherIND]

free money?

5dimes - evans/davis starts round 3 -170
bodog - evans/davis won't complete 2 rounds +275

i put the question mark b/c based on the literal wording of these lines, if the fight completes 2 rounds but somehow doesnt start round 3 (i.e., someone quits in between rounds), it will completely backfire. but i highly doubt that scenario.

[Vaughany]

free money?

5dimes - evans/davis starts round 3 -170
bodog - evans/davis won't complete 2 rounds +275

i put the question mark b/c based on the literal wording of these lines, if the fight completes 2 rounds but somehow doesnt start round 3 (i.e., someone quits in between rounds), it will completely backfire. but i highly doubt that scenario.

Id be all over tht if I had Bodog account

[Vaughany]

Vaughany, who were you referring to?

Gagnon

[NunyaBidness]

free money?

5dimes - evans/davis starts round 3 -170
bodog - evans/davis won't complete 2 rounds +275

i put the question mark b/c based on the literal wording of these lines, if the fight completes 2 rounds but somehow doesnt start round 3 (i.e., someone quits in between rounds), it will completely backfire. but i highly doubt that scenario.

It's a polish middle.

[PunisherIND]

Id be all over tht if I had Bodog account

thanks V. i pulled the trigger. i'm new to the whole concept of arbs/straddles/hedges, so i depend on you experienced gamblers for reassurance.

[Vaughany]

It's a polish middle.

thanks V. i pulled the trigger. i'm new to the whole concept of arbs/straddles/hedges, so i depend on you experienced gamblers for reassurance.

Yeah it's a quasi-arb as not all possible outcomes are covered so u just have to consider whether it's still worth it and what are the chances of a fighter quitting in between rounds in relation to your ROI. I guess Neer/Wisnewski was the last time a fight didnt start the third round but completed 2. A lot of my "arbs" when I take two opposing fighters to win are actually sometimes "quasi-arbs" as a lot of books offer the "draw" option, so there is sometimes the very small chance that they draw and I lose both sides of the bet.

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

taking a shot with Michael Johnson +200 at Bodog right now. should be a close fight

[bjpenn85]

it wins you money easily in the long run. But it requires some experience. I have made a bigger bet with chael sonnen decision hedged with fight not going the distance. Here i am banking on bispings only chance to win the fight is inside distance.

For those of you that have the opportunity to play on eurobooks, note that bisping by submission can be bought for the lovely price of +1400 @ skybet.

[NunyaBidness]

Yeah it's a quasi-arb as not all possible outcomes are covered so u just have to consider whether it's still worth it and what are the chances of a fighter quitting in between rounds in relation to your ROI. I guess Neer/Wisnewski was the last time a fight didnt start the third round but completed 2. A lot of my "arbs" when I take two opposing fighters to win are actually sometimes "quasi-arbs" as a lot of books offer the "draw" option, so there is sometimes the very small chance that they draw and I lose both sides of the bet.

It helps (me, at least) to think what you're actually betting. In this case, you're betting "Fight won't be stopped between rounds 2 and 3" at -598.

[Vaughany]

it wins you money easily in the long run. But it requires some experience. I have made a bigger bet with chael sonnen decision hedged with fight not going the distance. Here i am banking on bispings only chance to win the fight is inside distance.

For those of you that have the opportunity to play on eurobooks, note that bisping by submission can be bought for the lovely price of +1400 @ skybet.

Yee buddy! And they'll probably offer Bisping SOTN at +2000 or something on Saturday

[Vaughany]

It helps (me, at least) to think what you're actually betting. In this case, you're betting "Fight won't be stopped between rounds 2 and 3" at -598.

Yea that does help! I'd say that 85.67% is decent value as I'd guess at least 95% of fights (without any assessment of actual data!) aren't stopped between rounds 2 and 3! And when you consider the styles of Rashad and Davis u can't imagine either gassing out and quitting in between those rounds. It would have to be a cut or damaged eye or something like that

[koscheckbaby]

Don't forget, they both have black man skin. Other than John Howard(during that fight with Jake, I was actually wondering why isn't he bleeding yet after all those elbows. But then, he started welting), can you think of black guys bruising and welting up at all. In boxing, you see it, but they take way more damage and punches. Their skin doesn't cut and bruise up near as easily. You really gotta pound them. Compare that to certain white guys, such as Marcus Davis, who you can fart in front of and open up a cut around his eye.

[bjpenn85]

It may have something to do with the elastic properties of black peoples skin. However, to orientation, black people or not immortal.

[bjpenn85]

are...fakk, took all the snap away from my joke

[Vaughany]

haha yes how could I forget one of the greatest moments ever on SBR...seeing tht thread about how black people dont get cut! Was a great thread, must dig tht up at some point!

Koppenhaver/JRoc was one of the bloodiest fights ever...and JRoc was the one doing the bleeding!

[The Fobfather]

It helps (me, at least) to think what you're actually betting. In this case, you're betting "Fight won't be stopped between rounds 2 and 3" at -598.

Nunya, how were you able to calculate that? Could you educate a beginner?

[Wanna Bet On It?]

Yeah it's a quasi-arb as not all possible outcomes are covered so u just have to consider whether it's still worth it and what are the chances of a fighter quitting in between rounds in relation to your ROI. I guess Neer/Wisnewski was the last time a fight didnt start the third round but completed 2. A lot of my "arbs" when I take two opposing fighters to win are actually sometimes "quasi-arbs" as a lot of books offer the "draw" option, so there is sometimes the very small chance that they draw and I lose both sides of the bet.

I think Munoz-Leben was the most recent fight to stop after completing 2 rounds (a month later in November). Anyone else think of one more recently? Either way, it's rare as hell. Probably once every 4-5 cards at most doing the math (i.e. 40-50 fights) so that's a nice value play.

[koscheckbaby]

haha yes how could I forget one of the greatest moments ever on SBR...seeing tht thread about how black people dont get cut! Was a great thread, must dig tht up at some point!

Koppenhaver/JRoc was one of the bloodiest fights ever...and JRoc was the one doing the bleeding!

They will bleed, but it generally takes a lot more to do it. I swear, Ellenberger was landing so many short elbows on Howard, it was amazing it took as long as it did for the stoppage. Was amazed how little Jake wanted to do with Howard standing in that fight as well

[Vaughany]

I think Munoz-Leben was the most recent fight to stop after completing 2 rounds (a month later in November). Anyone else think of one more recently? Either way, it's rare as hell. Probably once every 4-5 cards at most doing the math (i.e. 40-50 fights) so that's a nice value play.

Ha oh yeah so it was... I was even there! But that is an example of where the likelihood of it happening for that particular fight would have to be calculated higher (by happening I mean fighter quitting in between rounds) because of the difference in cardio between the two fighters

[koscheckbaby]

Does anyone consider Marvin Eastman black? He had the goats vagina. But really, the guy fights like a white man. Very stiff and unathletic. He also got knocked out by Travis Lutter. Black men don't get knocked out by Travis Lutter.

[Vaughany]

[koscheckbaby]

Remember Ben Saunders was scheduled to fight Jared Rollins after the War Machine FOTN? I was waiting so intently on that line to bet on Saunders. Think his replacement was the one that got kneed brutally. Rollins was a ******* can. He ain't black either.

[Vaughany]

haha yeah...Brandon Wolff still walking around with a fu*cking tennis ball protruding out of his head! Was a brutal destuction

[gabe]

Leben/Munoz too