NFL playoffs vs really unknow main event of Aldo/Mendes. Whats the over under 200K PPV buys?
-
Comment -
Nice timing! I think I'm going to stick with mine, I have barely anything riding on him so arbing or buying back would be pretty pointless. Plus I'm more confident that his body will be in a decent state tomorrow now that its come out that none of this fiasco was injury related.Comment -
Needless to say, Friday was a tough day for UFC middleweight Anthony Johnson.
On the eve of his debut fight at 185lbs against Vitor Belfort in the co-main event of UFC 142 in Brazil, Johnson woke up on Friday morning feeling good and ready to go for his bout on Saturday.
Johnson has fought most of his career at 170lbs, but had struggled in the past to make the welterweight division limit so most believed a shift to 185lbs would be the perfect move.
It all backfired for Johnson on Friday as he cut weight for the fight.
According to Johnson’s manager Glenn Robinson of Authentic Sports Management, who spoke to MMAWeekly.com on Friday, ‘Rumble’ woke up on Friday morning weighing 191.5lbs, only 5.5lbs away from the 186lb weight limit for middleweight.
With three hours to go until weigh-ins, Johnson was only a pound and a half away from making weight when his body started feeling off.
Robinson says that Johnson started feeling sick and unstable, and so a local doctor came in to check him out to see what exactly was going on.
The doctor gave Johnson fluids to see if it would improve his condition, and within a couple of hours, the Blackzilian fighter started to come back to life. Unfortunately, at this point it was too late to cut the weight back down to 186lbs.
“It was medical reasons, it wasn’t for lack of effort,” Robinson said. “The UFC was extremely supportive and said health comes first.”
Johnson was extremely apologetic to both the UFC and to his opponent Vitor Belfort prior to the weigh-ins, but after getting sick just hours before and the doctors giving him fluids to rehydrate, there just wasn’t much else left to do.
Robinson did say however that there will be no risk of the fight not happening at UFC 142 on Saturday. He states that Johnson will make weight for the second weigh-in on Saturday at 205lbs, and he expects fireworks when Johnson and Belfort finally meet.
“AJ will be at 205, it will be a great fight tomorrow in Brazil and the fans will get to see a tremendous, tremendous battle between two amazing athletes,” Robinson said.
Johnson faces Belfort in the co-main event on the card that kicks off at 10pm ET/7pm PT on pay-per-view.Comment -
Sportbet/5dimes have taken down the props for Belfort/RumbleComment -
this may be obvious, but just a reminder, dont waste your money on Rumble KOTN or SOTN since ufc never gives the bonus to fighters who miss weight. kind of shady that the books still have those lines available.Comment -
Like all your plays my friend - most solid list of picks I've seen thus far.
Thinking about the same favs - aldo and tavares, prob stay away from gonzaga though.
Also thinking about going heavy on alcantra, but looked at V's sbr contest thread and saw LOTS of people picking omigawa...?
My gut was always saying play a line on vitor and after the weigh ins I just might have to do that. I came up nicely when kos was a +150 dog against him, thinking rumble was hype, and I get the same feeling of a nice opportunity here!
Def think prater is a very tasty dog at those odds. Prater is one of the most well rounded and tough dudes in the game, +400 or higher is just off against any opponent. Not big on massenzio but shitt at those odds it really can't hurt. Also liking arantes for a small upset.
Gl meng!
Comment -
Much in the way that a Hendricks KOTN bonus was a
if he were to knock out Dana's favorite WW; if Vitor puts AJ night-night via KO/TKO/Sub... best believe, barring some other monumental finish, Vitor gets the bonus.
Comment -
So wait...
Where are the undercard fights on?
I thought it was same as usual, two fights on spike and the rest of the under card on facebook, no?
Someone please inform me of where to watch the undercard in the US....
I'd search but I'm technologically retarded..
Really wanna watch these... also, what time do they start (4 hours ahead of US west coast time - that's rio right?)Comment -
I think Rumbles knee is hurt. Vitor inside distance +200 for meComment -
I like Omigawa to win a defensive-minded decision and made a small play on him. I don't think that Alcantara can finish him but I very well could be wrong. And I'm far from an Omigawa fan. I think he pretty much sucks. And Alcantara is a good prospect. SoLike all your plays my friend - most solid list of picks I've seen thus far.
Thinking about the same favs - aldo and tavares, prob stay away from gonzaga though.
Also thinking about going heavy on alcantra, but looked at V's sbr contest thread and saw LOTS of people picking omigawa...?
My gut was always saying play a line on vitor and after the weigh ins I just might have to do that. I came up nicely when kos was a +150 dog against him, thinking rumble was hype, and I get the same feeling of a nice opportunity here!
Def think prater is a very tasty dog at those odds. Prater is one of the most well rounded and tough dudes in the game, +400 or higher is just off against any opponent. Not big on massenzio but shitt at those odds it really can't hurt. Also liking arantes for a small upset.
Gl meng!
take my opinion as a grain of salt.
Comment -
Don't let the scope of V's contest thread steer you -- it's somewhat out of context, as he's one of the few attractive dogs in the contest, and some folks need to back an underdog to try to maximize their ROI on their wagers... not every fight is available in that contest. fyi.Like all your plays my friend - most solid list of picks I've seen thus far.
Thinking about the same favs - aldo and tavares, prob stay away from gonzaga though.
Also thinking about going heavy on alcantra, but looked at V's sbr contest thread and saw LOTS of people picking omigawa...?
My gut was always saying play a line on vitor and after the weigh ins I just might have to do that. I came up nicely when kos was a +150 dog against him, thinking rumble was hype, and I get the same feeling of a nice opportunity here!
Def think prater is a very tasty dog at those odds. Prater is one of the most well rounded and tough dudes in the game, +400 or higher is just off against any opponent. Not big on massenzio but shitt at those odds it really can't hurt. Also liking arantes for a small upset.
Gl meng!
Fawk, I really wish we had a better understanding of Gonzaga's mental state. EO's striking looks sloppy as hell, leaves his hands down quite a bit, and the footage of his opponents is fawking painful.... super cans. EO is one lanky muthaf*cka though... Buuuut, GG is coming off quasi-retirement, and on short notice; so will keep that wager conservative me thinks.
I am a bit concerned that Aldo looked a bit drawn out at weigh-ins. Perhaps he's outgrown 145. Tough to say. Maybe straddle time there...
Prelims are on FX tomorrow... One is on facebook.
Headed out to booze the night away... GL all
Comment -
WORD! Long week at work, BOOZIN' INDEED HAHAAAAAA!Don't let the scope of V's contest thread steer you -- it's somewhat out of context, as he's one of the few attractive dogs in the contest, and some folks need to back an underdog to try to maximize their ROI on their wagers... not every fight is available in that contest. fyi.
Fawk, I really wish we had a better understanding of Gonzaga's mental state. EO's striking looks sloppy as hell, leaves his hands down quite a bit, and the footage of his opponents is fawking painful.... super cans. EO is one lanky muthaf*cka though... Buuuut, GG is coming off quasi-retirement, and on short notice; so will keep that wager conservative me thinks.
I am a bit concerned that Aldo looked a bit drawn out at weigh-ins. Perhaps he's outgrown 145. Tough to say. Maybe straddle time there...
Prelims are on FX tomorrow... One is on facebook.
Headed out to booze the night away... GL all
I just asked Hoff in his thread if he was taking omigawa because it was for fake money / for fun or if he really feels omigawa is a legit dog. I've just done my research and outside of pure grappling, I think alcantra is bigger, more athletic, better wrestler, better striking, home town advantage, more power. I think its even in teh rolling / grappling. Then again, omigawa is known for the upset and has turned heads before, but he seems to always perform much better in his japanese days (a trend I'm starting to believe as a reality that some fighters who dominate in japan might be a level below the elite in the states and therefore are exposed states side- and this is coming from a die hard pride fan and 1/4 japanese human being!). I was really impressed with him against arantes (which was close - and therefore I'm thinking about a small dog play on arantes) - he showed to be very well rounded everywhere and has some nice wrestling. And I know everyone can tip the hat to him for that brutal ko on lamas, wow. I think he is gonna steam roll omigawa, but I could be vastly underestimating the japanese feller!
From what I've read from V and a few others on here - gonzaga seems legit and if what I've read from the discussion on this is true, gonazaga sounds like a nightmare style for EO. However, I just can't bet on something I haven't looked into myself and bet just because a lot of people are on it. I would look into it and I believe the discussion on here is valid and correct, I just don't have the time to research it... Gl on that one and GL to everyone on gonzaga - I think you're all making the right play!Comment -
ha, I just asked for your opinion in your other thread so go ahead and disregard that one - thanks for the feedback dude.I like Omigawa to win a defensive-minded decision and made a small play on him. I don't think that Alcantara can finish him but I very well could be wrong. And I'm far from an Omigawa fan. I think he pretty much sucks. And Alcantara is a good prospect. So take my opinion as a grain of salt.
For ANYONE taking omigawa or not liking a play on alcantra PLEASE tell me your reasoning / breakdown...??
Still reaserching , but by the end of the night I think I'm going heavy on alcantra (fuckingg shittty book put him up earlier today at -195...).
So if anyone has some good feedback or insight that perhaps I'm overlooking, I would be much appreciative as it could factor into my play and decision making. Thanks.Comment -
Anthony Johnson took out his frustration by making this post on his Official Facebook accountI’m already laughing at what ppl are saying. Yeah it was for medical reason and I did what the UFC Dr Told me to do. Believe it or don’t I give a f**k cuz the ppl close to me were freaking out but I’m still alive and something like this has never happen before. Say what you want I’m still gonna do my thang. You try not having feeling in your legs and can’t move then and see how you look at life after that.
Comment -
Wager1/14/2012 7:30 PM Props Fighting 11006 Not KO of the Night Winner / no winner* -2000 vs Anthony Johnson wins KO of the Night
all 10 fights must occur for action
free money. topsy turvied that f'er.Comment -
Possible value line, wording is funny:
bookmaker
World +3.5 +195
Brazil -3.5 -255
Fair market value of this prop is World +3.5 EV
HOWEVER, above the betting line it says 'Brazil must win at least 4 of 6 fights to win" So, someone made a mistake.Comment -
Ok, I've had a super stressful week, and I obviously made a dumb error in the other thread, so maybe I'm not on point today, so someone correct me if I'm dumb here:
Todd: Welcome to our Live Chat Department, my name is Todd. How may I be of assistance?
xxxxxxxx: There is a line I would like clarification with
Todd: Ok..
xxxxxxxx: 34241
xxxxxxxx: It says World +3.5 +195 or Brazil -3.5 -255
xxxxxxxx: But above it it says Brazil must win 4 of 6 fights to win, but wouldn't they need 5 for it to be a win
Todd: The line you are talking about is 4 because they are - 3 1/2
Todd: so if you take 4 away from 3 1/2 (4 - 3.5) = 0.5
xxxxxxxx: But if World wins 2, brazil wins 4 then brazil (4) - 3.5 = .5 so world would be a win
Todd: So you would still be winning by a flf point..
Todd: Half*
xxxxxxxx: But world would be 2, brazil .5 with the handicap, so brazil should be a loss, yes?
Todd: No..
Todd: If you win four fights..
Todd: It is what the website states..
Todd: It must win at least 4 fights for it to win..
Todd: It works just like a normal Point spread.
Todd: Has long has you are up even half a point.
xxxxxxxx: That doesn't make sense. If Brazil wins 6-0 then handicap makes it 2.5 - 0. Brazil wins
xxxxxxxx: brazil 5-1 then handicap makes it 1.5 -1, so brazil wins
Todd: A point spread is a point spread sir..
xxxxxxxx: if brazil 4-2 then handicap makes it .5 - 2 so world wins
Todd: Just because it says 3.5 on a fottball game and you only gat a half point up then it doesnt mean you lose.
xxxxxxxx: I know that
xxxxxxxx: If however, the score of a football game was 4 - 2 with the person with 4 having a spread of -3.5 that bet would be a loss
Todd: right.
xxxxxxxx: so, if brazil wins 4 fights and world wins 2. subtract 3.5 from from 4 and you get .5 and world should be a winner
Todd: Sir what the web site states is what you get..
Todd: And this was directly from wagering.
xxxxxxxx: The web site states two different things
Todd: If you wish to dispute this then wagering would be the department to contact.
Todd: POINT SPREAD -BRAZIL MUST WIN AT LEAST 4 OF 6 FIGHTS TO WIN
xxxxxxxx: I bet it when I saw world +3.5, not assuming that somehow meant world +2.5
Todd: Point spread it clearly states
Todd: No sir..
xxxxxxxx: the point spread and brazil wins 4 of 6 doesn't match
Todd: +3.5 means add 3.5 o the ending score.
xxxxxxxx: yes I know.
Todd: minus 3.5 means subtract 3.5 from the ending score.
Todd: Its a point spreaqd prop..
xxxxxxxx: so if world gets 2 and brazil gets 4, who wins?
Todd: THe sport does not change the way a spread works.
xxxxxxxx: I understand
Todd: the world..
xxxxxxxx: Ok, so that directly contradicts what you just told me with brazil winning with 4
Todd: By a point and a half
xxxxxxxx: I know
xxxxxxxx: that's what im telling you
Todd: because they have the +3.5
Todd: 2 + 3.5 is 5.5
xxxxxxxx: Yes, so if world wins when they have 2, then brazil CANT WIN when they have 4. Brazil needs 5 to win, as I've been saying all along. Contradicting what you said earlier
Todd: So regardless it would be world..
xxxxxxxx: exactly
Todd: I see what you are saying And I dont mean to be rude but you are sort of complicating yourself..
xxxxxxxx: I'm not. you're misunderstanding
Todd: I would just stick to the the fact that it is a point spread..
Todd: And regardless of the sport it doesnt change..
xxxxxxxx: Yes, would you please tell someone who sets your lines to look at it when they get a chance, because as I've stated over and over -3.5 = brazil has to win by 5 not 4
Todd: But I see exactly what you are saying though..
Todd: yes..
Todd: They would have to win at leat four out of the six fights that are going to happen between whoever they fight.
Todd: does that make sense..
Todd: But I will tell them..
xxxxxxxx: thanks for your time.Comment -
I interpreted it to be that either (world or brazil) would need 4 to win but who knows?Comment -
Yeah, that's what he's saying, but that's not what the point spread says. If Brazil wins 4, World wins 2. Handicap Brazil at 4-3.5 and its world 2, brazil .5. So, Brazil needs 5 to win at -3.5.
It doesn't even make sense if they said Brazil -2.5. Brazil wins 4 -2.5 = 1.5 World still wins at 2. Needs -1.5 to fit "brazil must win 4"Comment -
Comment -
So the guy is mistaken by saying that it's the equivalent of a point spread. You have a point.Comment -
But, lines like that are always worded OVER 3.5/Under 3.5 If it said that it would make sense, as a point spread it doesn't.
Compare this:
8:00p(DEN vs NE) Total Rushing Attempts – Tim Tebow (DEN)
Must start for action.
Over
9½
(-125)o
(-105)u
Under
To this:
BRAZIL VS WORLD: BEST OF 6 SERIES - POINT SPREAD -BRAZIL MUST WIN AT LEAST 4 OF 6 FIGHTS TO WIN
Time
# Teams Spread Total Odds
4:05 PM
34241 WORLD +3½+195
34242 BRAZIL -3½-255
I dunno, double funeral weekend, so maybe I'm a raving lunatic.Comment -
So I had a friend persuade me to bet on Anthony Johnson yesterday...now I read this... What should I do? It was a small play so not much lost, but still a loss.Comment -
My ufc 142 Plays thus far:
Ticket#:63642098
Jan 14 07:55 PM
INTERNET / -1Jan 14 03:51 AM
MU
STRAIGHT BET
[24229] Y ALCANTARA -195
(Y ALCANTARA vrs M OMIGAWA)
488 / 250
---------------------
Ticket#:63642100
Jan 14 11:00 PM
INTERNET / -1Jan 14 03:51 AM
MU
STRAIGHT BET
[24206] V BELFORT -110
(A JOHNSON vrs V BELFORT)
121 / 110
---------------------
Was gonna fulfilll my max win limit and put a G on Alcantra to win 500, but lots of people on here and on other online sites are picking omigawa which has me scared. Yet nothing I've read has really persuaded me to not play alcantra, but rather not go as heavy as I initially planned. I might go another line play on him if he drops, I'm hoping some of these people liking omigawa play him some more.
Was telling myself the past couple weeks not to touch AJ/vitor, but after the recent circumstances I had to take vitor, and considering my book hadn't caught up to the current lines yet, I was digging the near even odds at -110. Might regret this, but odds and weight troubles aside I'm still not sold on AJ and there are just way too many questions surrounding him and his potential. Again, I wasn't on the hype train against kos and that cashed, and I get the same feeling here. Best win an undersized charlie brenneman and now you're fighting a legend who regardless of competition is on a tear and still has his mojo - gotta go with the legend and his mojo!
Going back on my previous statement and I think I am gonna follow some of you guys on that gonzaga play. I've looked more into myself and I'm definitely liking gonzaga. My book has him at -130 but best fight has him averaging around -115 / -110, so I'm hoping his line will be more favorable when I wake up in the morning.
Same reasoning with aldo - definitely gonna play him, but the line on my site is -280 and I don't think they've updated and followed the trends of the other sites yet (which they always lag on!).
I've scrutinized this fight long and hard and I'm not convinced about mendes top control and td ability - I think he is getting a tad more credit than he deserves and people are making him out to sound like some master wrestler with unstoppable tds and top control and I wonder if they've really seen all his fights... Almost all his zufffa opponents had successs stuffing the tds at times and on occasion almost all had success scrambling up rather quickly when taken down. He gets them down, but I wouldn't call it a complete shut down of agressive and dominant top control or clinch work - something needed against aldo. His stand up is developing which raises a tad of concern but not too significant imo. And I'm not trying to discredit chad, he's legit and deserves this shot. My biggest concern for jose is his cardio - if he has trouble definitively winning the first 3 rnds he could be more susceptible to tds in teh champion rounds as he tires and loses a close decision... Yet overall considering aldo's tdd is arguably superb and he also has that nasty, diverse stand up to help him out, and lastly the home town advantage - I really can't see aldo losing here and can't see chad holding him down for 3+ rounds to get a UD. Not gonna stack on aldo, but definitely going to make a line play tomorrow and I'm hoping the line improves by the time I wake up manana.
Good night and GL tomorrow everyone. Until tomorrow
Comment -
During the official UFC 142 weigh ins, Anthony Johnson failed to make the middleweight limit. Johnson came in 11 pounds over the 186lbs weight allowance, was fined 20 percent of his earnings and the bout will be contested at a catchweight of 197lb. However, Belfort has requested that Johnson not weigh more than 205lb the day of the fight. The UFC will honor the stipulation and have Johnson weigh in a second time. If Johnson cannot make the 205lb limit, the bout will be cancelled.Comment
