UFC 142: Aldo vs Mendes

[BIGDAY]

Planing a trip to CR to have a talk with our pal Nick...



After I rough him up, then we'll sit back and have a few Imperial or Pilsen.

[TheCalculator]

True, but was also the Brazilians were all favourites in their fights and a lot were worse than -250 odds favourites. Nog was the only underdog and he did win, but Cane was a favourite and lost.

I haven't run the stats -- but from the last few cards -- "home advantage" seems to be a serious disadvantage. The Canadians didn't do so shit hot in Toronto at UFC 140. Was about 50-50% in England.

I think there's way more pressure having friends and family show up and that's not always good.

[Beelzebubzy]

what makes you like EO? he seems a bit sloppy in fights

Its more of a small fade against Gonzaga.
He has already 'retired' before and it took him until the third round to lock in a choke against Parker Porter.

I have mentioned why I like stout. I think Tavares only option is to LNP for three rounds; but Stouts takedown defense is pretty good and Tavares does not have a great shot

[sirchadwick1]

I haven't run the stats -- but from the last few cards -- "home advantage" seems to be a serious disadvantage. The Canadians didn't do so shit hot in Toronto at UFC 140. Was about 50-50% in England.

I think there's way more pressure having friends and family show up and that's not always good.

I agree w/ this. And some of these guys feel the pressure to "finish" the fight in their home town and end up gassing or leaving opportunities for their opponent to capitalize. I really like Etim and Rumble in the dog category.

[Beelzebubzy]

Anyone playing Aldo?

I am leaning towards Aldo but it might be a last minute play

[Vaughany]

Unibet have Erick Silva by TKO/KO at +250 and paddy still have it at +275 for fellow Euro account users! Put a few pounds on the Erick Silva by TKO/KO opener of +350 on paddy. Unibet also have some good odds on fight not going distance (-200) and Palhares/Massenzio not going distance at -166. Paddy also have good odds for those plays. Plenty of easy arb opportunities going

[Beelzebubzy]

Unibet have Erick Silva by TKO/KO at +250 and paddy still have it at +275 for fellow Euro account users! Put a few pounds on the Erick Silva by TKO/KO opener of +350 on paddy. Unibet also have some good odds on fight not going distance (-200) and Palhares/Massenzio not going distance at -166. Paddy also have good odds for those plays. Plenty of easy arb opportunities going

I think Silva by decision is the best choice. Prater has never been KOed and Silva only has 3 KO
-Wiki Capping

but seriously those are decent odds for you bloody euros

[Vaughany]

I think Silva by decision is the best choice. Prater has never been KOed and Silva only has 3 KO
-Wiki Capping

but seriously those are decent odds for you bloody euros

yeah I have a feelin Silva might win by decision so have arbed out anyway with Not Silva by TKO/KO at -145. Will make a risk free 4.3 units if he does win by TKO/KO or will make 3 units if it goes distance

[Beelzebubzy]

Nooo all of my plays match Mendez

Does anyone know his percentages?

[Vaughany]

Stout now +101 underdog on Pinnacle and Sportbet/5dimes

[Beelzebubzy]

Stout now +101 underdog on Pinnacle and Sportbet/5dimes

Damn! Should have waited. I am goign to lay 1 more u closer to fight time

You arbing SOB

[Vaughany]

Arantes at +201 on Pinnacle, think I'll have to bite on tht. Dont see why Carvalho should be as big a fave as he is

[Wanna Bet On It?]

I think Silva by decision is the best choice. Prater has never been KOed and Silva only has 3 KO
-Wiki Capping

but seriously those are decent odds for you bloody euros

Prater was KOed by Larson IIRC.

I like betting that this fight doesn't start Rd2 at +165

[Wanna Bet On It?]

Stylistically I like Stout over Tavares. Stout has the superior standup. He has excellent control of the distance with leg kicks and a stiff jab. Tavares' standup has improved a lot recently but, make no mistake, he'll lose this fight, possibly by KO if he can't take Sam down. Stout also has very underrated TDD and decent scrambling. He was able to scramble up from Edwards' first round takedown and rolled out of a kimura attempt against Round 1 Lauzon, no easy feat even if it was his first fight back from knee surgery.

The wild card here will be where Stout is at mentally. This is his first fight since his trainer and brother-in-law Shawn Tompkins passed away. We saw how that affected Hominick already. Stout has had more time to recover from the shocking tragedy which will help, and he saw how Mark erred so he likely won't make the same mistake. I could've seen him coming out more aggressively looking for the KO since his most recent KOTN performance but I think he'll be more patient and settle in after seeing Hominick fail at UFC 140 by making this mistake.

It doesn't help that it's in Rio and it's Sam's first fight since Shawn's death but I like a moderate play on Stout here.

I've had a change of heart after rewatching Tavares vs Fisher. I think this will be an ugly Wall & Stall fight which heavily favours Tavares. Tavares only boxed with Roller because Shane is an excellent grappler. Thiago won't be worried about Stout's clinch or ground game so I don't expect Tavares to give Stout any room to kickbox. Stout's had a series of opponents that favour him stylistically but Tavares should be the favourite here if he fights with the same savvy strategy that won him his last contest against a similar kickboxer in Fisher. I'm betting up Thiago.

[bogbat]

I haven't run the stats -- but from the last few cards -- "home advantage" seems to be a serious disadvantage. The Canadians didn't do so shit hot in Toronto at UFC 140. Was about 50-50% in England.

I think there's way more pressure having friends and family show up and that's not always good.

I don't know what the overall tend has been but last card in Brazil all but one Brazilion won.

[Kaladarus]

I don't think it's much of an advantage. Usually when the UFC is looking into going somewhere new they give favorable matches to fighters of that country. After the first UFC in the new market they usually just match make like they would for any other fight card.

[MMAbetMASTA]

Anyone playing Aldo?

I am leaning towards Aldo but it might be a last minute play

Was gonna ask the same thing...? Who's on aldo and why? please post a breakdown, especially if you're liking mendes.

Big title fights are normally not my type of plays, but aldo at under -250 price is looking tasty....

I'll admit mendes is the best power wrestler jose has faced, but HOW much better is he than faber, brown, brookins or anyone else with solid tds that aldo stuffed away with ease? Aldo has been taken down twice since being with zuffa, and outside of the last round with hominick he really hasn't spent much time on the ground and spraws nicely, and pops up real quick. Mendes claims his doublke and single shot are different that urija's and brown's because he's more explosive - I have to agree and I do take that as a difference. An explosive power wrestler who can pump you in the air is hard to sprawl on, and I don't know that jose has faced that type. However, against faber and other wrestler's he's been phenomenal, so I really can't conclude how aldo's tdd is going to be. Something tells me he does better in this one than against faber and stuffs everything and gets a vintage, brutal finish in front of his country man - but that is just my gut feeling and my gut is biased Is it worthy to bet against mendes' ability to hold aldo down for at least 3 rounds? I'm thinking yes, but can't pull the trigger yet...

Its a skeptical prediction and like you beelz I might wait till last minute, because I really need to do more research on this and read some more outside analysis and breakdowns.

this fight really is black and white imo (as I'm sure everyone realizes) - can mendes get him down and grind a UD in brasil, or does he fail on the tds and jose gets a finish or cruises the stand up to a UD?

I know mendes' striking has come a long way, but I really can't see him being the least bit competitive on the feet against aldo.

Let's get some chat / dissection going on this, gentlemen. Insight is much appreciated.

[MMAbetMASTA]

damn, pyle at -425???

books are getting good at setting the line on solid favss.... Give us a break you SOBs!!! Regardless of odds, the two fighters I'm most confident in, pala and pyle, are ridiculously costly...sheeeeiiiiiittt!

I was gonna pound this if under -300, I think pyle is a stylistic nightmare for funch...

Alcantra at -200 is surprising, anyone liking that? I thought he'd be much heavier... Def interested in this yet my shittty book prob won't have it up until friday night. Just from the 'off the top of my head' analysis I think alcantra absolutely owns omigawa in any aspect of the game - bigger man, better wrestler, better striking, more athletic, home field, and about even in the rolling department. Agree?

[BIGDAY]

I will probably play Mendes pretty small. I am hoping his line improves some and will when 5D has reduced lines. If Aldo wants the win I think he has to be aggressive in the first two rounds and look for a TKO. If he doesn't, I see Mendes taking Aldo down much easier every minute the fight goes on. Leading to a 48-47 dec by taking rds 3-5.

Currently I have a parlay with Aldo by TKO +315 and Rumble by TKO +325. If rumble gets TKO I will either hedge with more Mendes or fight goes the dist. Depending on where the odds are.

Mendes is very motivated for this fight and can time his takedowns perfectly. When Mendes goes in for a takedown, rarely does he not bring his opponent down. Now in the first two rounds I expect Aldo to get the fight back to standing if Mendes is able to get his takedowns, however, in rounds 3 through 5 I see Mendes out pointing Aldo with his relentless style.

Should be in for some entertaining fights.

[proposition joe]

Public backing of Rumble is only making me like Vitor more.

But still, I hope everyone finds a way to profit off of this card. Good luck to all.

[Beelzebubzy]

Grabbed alcantra at -155

Can't believe I'm the only stout backer and I'm pissed that he moved to dog territory

[proposition joe]

Grabbed alcantra at -155

Can't believe I'm the only stout backer and I'm pissed that he moved to dog territory

Don't be. If anything, that should encourage you. Look at the biggest line movers on 141 and 140 and tell me what you see.

[BIGDAY]

This card will be hard to profit from imo.

[salvador_7764]

Have you guys seen Aldo fight that guy is a warrior.love Aldo good luck

[FightFightFight]

Seen who fight?

[jacktheknife]

Pounded Alcantara on the sbr book at -173 just now. Hop to.

[Beelzebubzy]

Don't be. If anything, that should encourage you. Look at the biggest line movers on 141 and 140 and tell me what you see.

Really dont know what you mean by this statement.

I had the line at -150 Stout +120 Tavares as evident in my previous posts. It was opened at -147/117 so I am happy my line estimates are improving. I am disappointed that I grabbed Stout at -130 whereas he is getting little action and is moving into dog territory.

[proposition joe]

Really dont know what you mean by this statement.

I had the line at -150 Stout +120 Tavares as evident in my previous posts. It was opened at -147/117 so I am happy my line estimates are improving. I am disappointed that I grabbed Stout at -130 whereas he is getting little action and is moving into dog territory.

Ahhhhhh...I thought you meant that you were worried because public is backing Tavares. Simple mistake. What I meant was look at Hominick/Cerrone line movement and you'll see that public backing doesnt really mean much. Good luck Saturday!

[NunyaBidness]

Grabbed alcantra at -155

Can't believe I'm the only stout backer and I'm pissed that he moved to dog territory

You're definitely not the only Stout backer, but I expected Tavares money to come in on that line.

[kmdubya]

damn, pyle at -425???

books are getting good at setting the line on solid favss.... Give us a break you SOBs!!! Regardless of odds, the two fighters I'm most confident in, pala and pyle, are ridiculously costly...sheeeeiiiiiittt!

I was gonna pound this if under -300, I think pyle is a stylistic nightmare for funch...

Couldn't agree more. Hard to see Pyle losing this fight anywhere.

My money is on Belfort to make some profit. I think AJ will be out of his league striking-wise. Hopefully Belforts BJJ can be good enough if it goes to the ground.

[more_betterness]

Stout up to +120.

[Jesus Christ]

I've watched many of Oliveira's fights and he is sloppy as hell...if Gonzaga is even a shell of his former self I think he should take this...anyone have an opinion on this one?

[GunShard]

Public backing of Rumble is only making me like Vitor more.

But still, I hope everyone finds a way to profit off of this card. Good luck to all.

I hope Victor loses. I have technical and statistical reasons why Johnson will win.

[NunyaBidness]

I've watched many of Oliveira's fights and he is sloppy as hell...if Gonzaga is even a shell of his former self I think he should take this...anyone have an opinion on this one?

I agree. The line has shocked me on this one. I pounded the opener, pounded the 5d opener, and it kept moving the other way.

Oliveira looks sloppy everywhere, not just the standup IMO. Expected line to be Gonzaga -225.

[FightFightFight]

If I knew for sure Gonzaga would go for a takedown I'd say -400.