UFC on Fox: Velasquez vs Dos Santos

[FightFightFight]

Here's my first bet for the fight. I really like Rosa in this one. I see alot of pundits and people here are picking Lucas but I think your research was inadequate. There are many indicators suggesting Rosa wins and wins easily...

Why do you think that. I see Rosa with his back constantly up against the cage in past fights, and think his wild flurries of punches, and lack of speed will open him up for a td. If Lucas cant get it though, he may be in trouble. I like the over here more than Lucas, but like Lucas too.

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

Bradley look jacked, Pierce looks soft around the midsection

[Vaughany]

On a side note, how do you think the Bradley fight plays out tonight Rocky? Bradley decision? Im hoping 5dimes/sportbet put up props at somepoint

My mistake...meant Timothy Bradley in the Boxing! Can see the confusion seeing as it's completely off topic!

[bogbat]

interesting video....watch at around 4:40.........dana stumbles a bit regarding a potential velasquez training injury.....might explain the 249 weight... http://video.aol.com/video/dana-whit...iew/2133222395

249 is only 5lbs heavier than his fight with Lesnar. It's not much for a heavyweight

[Marv001]

guida is good but I cant see him winning this one.cain should get the win another easy fight for him.

Dos Santos has some of the best hands in the business. Velasquez is a beast but he is coming off an injury with ring rust. Take the plus money on go big on JDS. Don't over think it. Line is already going back to JDS. I know he didn't finish Roy but Roy is underrated bcs he is soo out of shape.

[Kaladarus]

Roy is that fattest man in the UFC and JDS couldn't finish. Carwin has the worst cardio in the UFC, was coming off roids and JDS couldn't finish him. JDS has a punchers chance in this one and that's about it. If he can't finish these lower tier HW's how is he going to finish Cain? Cain's been hit by pretty much the best shots he could possibly be hit with in the Kongo fight. He walked through these punches and gave Kongo the biggest beating of his life. He stayed active the full three rounds delivering punishment the whole way. By the end of the fight he looked fresh and even though he had a little bit of blood coming out of his nose, he looked like he could go another 15 rounds. JDS was gassed against the fattest man in the UFC and the guy with the worst cardio in the UFC.

Good luck to all you JDS backers though, you will need a miracle in this one.

[dww123]

Why do you think that. I see Rosa with his back constantly up against the cage in past fights, and think his wild flurries of punches, and lack of speed will open him up for a td. If Lucas cant get it though, he may be in trouble. I like the over here more than Lucas, but like Lucas too.

I like Rosa because 1.Rosa is in fantastic shape. this is the first time in his career he is a full time fighter without a dayjob, and it shows. I saw his training regement online and it look intense. 2. He was scheduled to fight a different fighter of higher calliber on OCT 1. but he pulled out due to injury (cant recall his name). That means Mike Lucas is coming in on at last somewhat short notice. Say a month. 3. Lucas does have a full time job with some prepaid wireless service company that he is a natioanl sales rep for. Most sales jobs require lots of hours which means less time for training. 4. Rosa is 28. Lucas is 37. 37 year old wrestler's shots are generally not thaat explosive. 5. Rosa has fought MUCH higher level of oppenents. Not that Abe Wagoner or Joey Beltran are ggreat but the clips i saw of Lucas fighting looked very amatuerish. Finally, I just think Rosa has the broader skill set and is the more technical fighter all around (except wrestling) and will most likely ended it quickly. Good luck if you take the over but IMO the play on this one would def. be the under.

[Vaughany]

Dos Santos has some of the best hands in the business. Velasquez is a beast but he is coming off an injury with ring rust. Take the plus money on go big on JDS. Don't over think it. Line is already going back to JDS. I know he didn't finish Roy but Roy is underrated bcs he is soo out of shape.

I like Rosa because 1.Rosa is in fantastic shape. this is the first time in his career he is a full time fighter without a dayjob, and it shows. I saw his training regement online and it look intense. 2. He was scheduled to fight a different fighter of higher calliber on OCT 1. but he pulled out due to injury (cant recall his name). That means Mike Lucas is coming in on at last somewhat short notice. Say a month. 3. Lucas does have a full time job with some prepaid wireless service company that he is a natioanl sales rep for. Most sales jobs require lots of hours which means less time for training. 4. Rosa is 28. Lucas is 37. 37 year old wrestler's shots are generally not thaat explosive. 5. Rosa has fought MUCH higher level of oppenents. Not that Abe Wagoner or Joey Beltran are ggreat but the clips i saw of Lucas fighting looked very amatuerish. Finally, I just think Rosa has the broader skill set and is the more technical fighter all around (except wrestling) and will most likely ended it quickly. Good luck if you take the over but IMO the play on this one would def. be the under.

To be fair, Rosa did beat Devin Cole who also has decent wrestling credentials and who has faced better competition than Lucas.

[varkolek]

I've got:

About 6% Mike Pierce vs Paul Bradley going the distance + 1% on Paul Bradley by decision. Better not lose the 6% because I've lost a string of distance props lately.

$50 on Peralta on Points hedged against $180 on Sermezier

6% on Ricardo Lamas

$80 on Velasquez by Dec
$40 Dos Santos by KO
$141 on Dos Santos to win

$136 on Kid Yamamoto. Worried about this one since Kid is the more Asian looking of the two, and even if Kid knocks out Uyenoyama the judges might give the decision to Darren.

Also got $75 on Marquez-Pacquiao going over 10.5 rounds
$36 on Marquez

1% on Breidis Prescott

$65 on Bradley by decision hedged against about $20 on Joel Casamayor.

[varkolek]

To be fair, Rosa did beat Devin Cole who also has decent wrestling credentials and who has faced better competition than Lucas.

Yeah I didn't look into this fight much, have limited time and couldn't find footage on Lucas. But Rosa beating Devin Cole made me think it wasn't worth looking into.

[FightFightFight]

I like Rosa because 1.Rosa is in fantastic shape. this is the first time in his career he is a full time fighter without a dayjob, and it shows. I saw his training regement online and it look intense. 2. He was scheduled to fight a different fighter of higher calliber on OCT 1. but he pulled out due to injury (cant recall his name). That means Mike Lucas is coming in on at last somewhat short notice. Say a month. 3. Lucas does have a full time job with some prepaid wireless service company that he is a natioanl sales rep for. Most sales jobs require lots of hours which means less time for training. 4. Rosa is 28. Lucas is 37. 37 year old wrestler's shots are generally not thaat explosive. 5. Rosa has fought MUCH higher level of oppenents. Not that Abe Wagoner or Joey Beltran are ggreat but the clips i saw of Lucas fighting looked very amatuerish. Finally, I just think Rosa has the broader skill set and is the more technical fighter all around (except wrestling) and will most likely ended it quickly. Good luck if you take the over but IMO the play on this one would def. be the under.

Thx. All very good points. I think its a speed issue for me. Lucas shots looked ok. I dont think he'll take him down from clinch however. But sometimes all you need is a wrestling advantage to win. I dont think he'll put rosa away, so the over would encompass a Lucas win, and a part of a rosa win.
Devin Cole is an issue, but he did get Rosa down, and gassed really quickly. His tds were from clinch too.
...maybe I'm focussing too much on one detail here, with Lucas shot and rosas lack of speed, we'll see.
Good luck.

[SportsPedagogy]

im on Dos Santos

[jacktheknife]

4u on Yamamoto -360/Escovedo -300/Manny Pacquiao -700

2.4u RR from 3's/7's on Velasquez-170/Poirier -300/Yamamoto -360/Escovedo -300/Lamas-155/D. Johnson -300/ Alexandre Bezerra -375

.8u on Saunders -135

.7u on Peralta -115

.7u on Bradley +255

Luck, yo.

[MMAbetMASTA]

Here's my first bet for the fight. I really like Rosa in this one. I see alot of pundits and people here are picking Lucas but I think your research was inadequate. There are many indicators suggesting Rosa wins and wins easily...

Single #231757503 (Placed by Web)
Mixed Martial Arts (Game) Moneyline
UFC on FOX 1 - Ultimate Fighting Championship - Honda Center, Anaheim, California, United States
Both must fight for action.
(9216) Aaron Rosa -140 Sat@6:00p
Competitor9217) Matt "Luke Duke" Lucas
Risk US$ 2800.00 to win US$ 2000.00

damn son! I'm on lucas, but for your sake I hope rosa wins as I am risking only a hundo.

Where are you able to place that kind of money??? I thought my bookie site took big wins as the max win amount is 1k.... You're stoked you have a site that will let you win 2k!?!?!? GL!

[MMAbetMASTA]

I like Rosa because 1.Rosa is in fantastic shape. this is the first time in his career he is a full time fighter without a dayjob, and it shows. I saw his training regement online and it look intense. 2. He was scheduled to fight a different fighter of higher calliber on OCT 1. but he pulled out due to injury (cant recall his name). That means Mike Lucas is coming in on at last somewhat short notice. Say a month. 3. Lucas does have a full time job with some prepaid wireless service company that he is a natioanl sales rep for. Most sales jobs require lots of hours which means less time for training. 4. Rosa is 28. Lucas is 37. 37 year old wrestler's shots are generally not thaat explosive. 5. Rosa has fought MUCH higher level of oppenents. Not that Abe Wagoner or Joey Beltran are ggreat but the clips i saw of Lucas fighting looked very amatuerish. Finally, I just think Rosa has the broader skill set and is the more technical fighter all around (except wrestling) and will most likely ended it quickly. Good luck if you take the over but IMO the play on this one would def. be the under.

wow very interesting... that is some great insight man. good, good info! These are great points, I see why you would play rosa and you have me further regretting lucas.

[Shane]

Agreed. Very nice insight. I've been leaning more toward Rosa since the weigh-ins. Dude looks like a different person. I'm on it for a unit.

[Kaladarus]

damn son! I'm on lucas, but for your sake I hope rosa wins as I am risking only a hundo.

Where are you able to place that kind of money??? I thought my bookie site took big wins as the max win amount is 1k.... You're stoked you have a site that will let you win 2k!?!?!? GL!

Most good books will let you bet that amount. Especially, close to fight time on UFC events. Sometimes though you have to max bet it a couple of times and wait for line movement or 30 mins before hitting max limits again.

[The HOFF]

It's go time!!!

[jacktheknife]

Check out the casual late money on JDS. I might go straight on Cain if it keeps.

[GoGoGadget]

is the best feed on facebook or is the fox one better?

[proposition joe]

Check out the casual late money on JDS. I might go straight on Cain if it keeps.

Seems to be a sentiment going around that Cain is injured and would have pulled out if this weren't such a monumental event. Not saying Cain isn't a good play, but be careful.

[Kaladarus]

Cain -3.5 isn't bad either, but the straight bet looks real good at this price.

[Educ8d Degener8]

Not crazy about anything on this card... was hoping to get better line on Demarques, but not willing to lay -270... and was hoping for better line on Escovedo, but at current odds am damn near tempted to put a bit on Caceres, and I hate that guy...

Basically, just letting some parlays ride out that are pending Cain-JDS not distance... Effectively have 2.00 units staked to win 3.00 units

my favorite of the group is this degen parlay:
Anthony Fasano no TDs on Sept 12 MNF game -260 / Cruz over Mighty Mouse -425 / Cain-JDS not distance -350

couple tiny action plays as well:

0.50u Velasquez / Bendo Guida to decision / Chiefs ML
0.25u Garza / Redskins ML

2 semi-hedges I suppose...
0.13u Velasquez by dec / Redskins ML
0.25u JDS SOTN -- in case he knocks Cain down and secures the back; he briefly tried that on Carwin

was contemplating a large Cain ML / JDS KOTN straddle, but backed off that play...

[GoGoGadget]

Nice round for Rosa

[The HOFF]

Damn it. I knew I should have bought back on Rosa.

[Vaughany]

Lot of action on Garza as well. Poirier at -225 now. Swanson +151 as well and Ben Saunders now +105 underdog

[proposition joe]

It will be interesting to see how the judges score this type of action...

[The HOFF]

I need some judges that like octagon control.

[Vaughany]

Dude reminds me of a slightly skinnier Tuscherereerer - next to zero stand-up, terrible cardio and sloppy takedowns!

[The HOFF]

WTF? Taking a point?!!

[Vaughany]

I need some judges that like octagon control.

ha shit screwed now with the point loss! Sorry bro but no way of predicting somebody not having a proper mouthguard!!

[proposition joe]

9-9 round...

[Vaughany]

THis is horrible

[cheeese]

A chance for a draw here

[Vaughany]

Hope there aren't any prospective fans of this sport watchin this fight! They might not bother watchin the Cain fight!