UFC on Fox: Velasquez vs Dos Santos

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

Will this one fight be the most watched MMA event???

1. EliteXC on CBS (5/31/2008): Kimbo Slice vs. James Thompson— 7.281 million
2. UFC on Spike TV (10/10/2006): Tito Ortiz vs. Ken Shamrock— 6.524 million viewers
3. EliteXC on CBS (10/4/08): Seth Petruzelli vs. Kimbo Slice— 6.451 million viewers
4. EliteXC on CBS (5/31/2008): Robbie Lawler vs. Scott Smith— 5.867 million viewers
5. UFC on Spike TV (9/8/2007): Quinton Jackson vs. Dan Henderson— 5.811 million viewers

http://www.cagepotato.com/good-to-know-the-20-most-watched-mma-fights-in-us-history/

[proposition joe]

Take it you're doing the whole "disinformation" thing here?!

It blows my mind that anyone would take Pierce at -400. His biggest strengths are strength and wrestling and moving up to 185 might downplay both of those. Bradley isn't a worldbeater and probably will not beat Pierce but he does have a legitimate chance..

[TheCalculator]

It blows my mind that anyone would take Pierce at -400. His biggest strengths are strength and wrestling and moving up to 185 might downplay both of those. Bradley isn't a worldbeater and probably will not beat Pierce but he does have a legitimate chance..

I don't know what the deal is. Pierce said on his twitter account that they're fighting at 170:

http://twitter.com/#!/MikePierce170

TalkingTough Alex
@MikePierce170 is your fight against bradley at 170?
10 Oct
in reply to ↑

@MikePierce170
Mike Pierce
@TalkingTough 170.
10 Oct via TweetCaster
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I'll wait for the weigh-ins to see what the deal is.

[PunisherIND]

I actually thought Cain by decision at +500 to +550 range was best value

from a value perspective, i have to agree. i have cain by decision in a few parlays.

[Vaughany]

Pretty much every fighter picking Cain....

[Vaughany]

This is superb...

[TheCalculator]

This is superb...

This was fan made? It would be cool as ice if FOX edited that together. lol

[MMAbetMASTA]

I'm thinking Johnson/Pierce, or Bendo/Pierce parlay here

i like this

I was torn on bradely / pierce, but after reading your guys' breakdowns and breaking it down myself, I gotta go with pierce. While bradley did take the natal fight at 185, he looked horrendous... He seemed gassed by the second, didn't impress with stand up or tds, and natal is nothing too special in my opinion (no disrespect, natal). Also, I think pierce has evolved a lot since their first fight, and it was a close fight. Furthermore, someone said pierce was dominated by hendricks, a smaller sized ww, and that bradley being bigger should win. First, hendricks didn't dominate... that was a damn close fight. I had a good 300 on pierce and lost unfortunately, but I did score it for pierce (def some bias there obviously). Second, bradley looked gassed when he didn't have to cut. From what I've noticed, gassing tends to be a problem when bigger men cut down. Sometimes its the opposite, where cutting actually improved the cardio of a fighter, but most the time it seems to perhaps go the opposite way. I think bradley's cardio might be in worse shape than the natal fight, but I am not taking that assumption too far. I think pierces stand up and jits > bradley's, although I give bradley the wrestling edge.

However, as Prop Joe and someone else said, pierce is WAY overvalued at -300 and bradley is a live dog - if you like bradley the least bit you should be on him imo (no homo ). Wouldn't play pierce str8 up, def parlay him.

I really wanna take bendo str8 up, but you never know with guida's unorthodox ass!

Also, I'm really liking Demarques over havirson - even at the current line price. Unfortunately my book that I make str8s on hasn't put up any of these new lines yet

Lastly, I'm definitely interested in lucas. Rosa has a HUGE weight cut in front of him and he seemed to tire when he didn't have to cut against beltran. Only seen minimal footage on lucas, but the guy is powerful and has some nice wrestling and g np. Rosa's stand up doesn't impress, and while lucas seems to lack technique, I think he has serious power to make rosa hurt. At +/evens, I am liking lucas.

Want to take kid, but way too pricey. I was hoping he'd be -200 / -250 range.

******* books are getting good, gentleman. I'm telling you, the lines seem to get stronger every event!!

I've been waiting to make a big money play but haven't had the confidence because the lines are strong. Probably won't go crazy on this one either, it all depends what the lines are like when they get on my book.

GL everybody.

[MMAbetMASTA]

btw... someone talk me outta demarques / havirson...

I'll admit I've only done minimal research on this one (A reason I haven't been posting here as much / making nice plays is I have been soooo damn busy - I am a 'student teacher' of 10th and 11th grade history classes and its the most time consuming and challenging thing I've ever done!!! I feel my lack of research and efffort in the mma bet game is taking a toll on my play abilities...whaaaa haha). So yea I am kinda asking for some people to provide some good breakdowns / help and save me some time / share some outside insight. I know he is pricey, but my initial breakdown in my head has demarques winning this fight almost anywhere it goes...

Also, if you got some insight on lucas / rosa - please tell.

I've researched this fight more than others I'm interested in for this card, but I'll admit I could definitely use more info and a perspective from someone who perhaps knows a good amount about lucas. Tempted to stack large on him at those odds, and I'm surprised he is a slight dog???? Perhaps I'm missing something.

[Vaughany]

Lastly, I'm definitely interested in lucas. Rosa has a HUGE weight cut in front of him and he seemed to tire when he didn't have to cut against beltran. Only seen minimal footage on lucas, but the guy is powerful and has some nice wrestling and g np. Rosa's stand up doesn't impress, and while lucas seems to lack technique, I think he has serious power to make rosa hurt. At +/evens, I am liking lucas.

Want to take kid, but way too pricey. I was hoping he'd be -200 / -250 range.

******* books are getting good, gentleman. I'm telling you, the lines seem to get stronger every event!!

I've been waiting to make a big money play but haven't had the confidence because the lines are strong. Probably won't go crazy on this one either, it all depends what the lines are like when they get on my book.

GL everybody.

Who are you talking about here? Lucas?

[more_betterness]

Who are you talking about here? Lucas?

Hes talking about Yamamoto!

[Vaughany]

Hes talking about Yamamoto!

ha yeah forgot he was on the card! Just ignored it when I saw how chalky it was!

[rocky mattioli]

wasn`t a garza admirer after the fight with zhang...but the guy`s sort of grown on me a little in his last two....poirier was the hot commodity after grispi,but,now we see that grispi has fallen off the end of the earth...garza has finished two very competent fighters in a row...definitively(1st round finishes).....

garza has a very diversified sub game and length....poirier has struggled a bit of late(in his last fight with jason young,who has poor grappling,and that`s probably what cost him in the fight,if my memory serves me)

pick em,i probably take poirier...but not with total confidence...at +260,garza has me looking hard...poirier makes a mistake and he might find himself in serious trouble...

[bjpenn85]

I think its a pickem. Doesnt garza have a kickboxing and bjj edge? I do think 3.6 is a bit off i . Garca at that price easily imo.

[The HOFF]

btw... someone talk me outta demarques / havirson..

This is a garbage fight. Demarques has more ways to win, but do you really want to lay -270 on a fighter who is barely .500? STAY AWAY! Much better fights around that line.

[The HOFF]

Also, if you got some insight on lucas / rosa - please tell.

Rosa fights both light heavy and heavy. This is a light heavy bout. His last fight he was 261 versus Beltran. So he is cutting 56 lbs in 4 months. Have to question his cardio coming into this fight. Lucas is an all-american wrestler. The only time he really stepped up in competition he was subbed by Giva Santana and Richard Hale. I think if Lucas uses wrestling to control this fight he'll win by dec or finish Rosa after he gasses. However, if this stays on the feet I think Lucas gets KTFO. I'm counting on Lucas using his wrestling and played him +130.

Oh and I maxed bet that MoFo with points in the SBRbook. "Cause I'm big time like that.

[more_betterness]

The only time he really stepped up in competition he was subbed by Giva Santana and Richard Hale.

He beat Hale previous to that sub pretty soundly though!

[Vitooch]

From what I've seen of Harvison, he doesn't appear to be a UFC caliber fighter. Tough kid without the necessary tools to succeed at MMA's highest level.

Johnson may only find success beating lower tier fighters in the UFC, but Harvison is just that. He's just tough enough and skilled enough to beat Clay IMO. This will be an ugly scrap but I do think Johnson will win convincingly. I may add him in a parlay with Mike Pierce and maybe Bendo.

Also, I think Garza SU or even inside the distance is a good bet considering the odds. Garza seems to have found his own in the UFC with some really impressive finishes, but he hasn't exactly fought the top tier of the division. This is not to say Poirier has beaten any top guys either, but he's looked very impressive also and has a knack for winning.

With that being said, this is a big step up in competition for both guys, and it could very well be a hotly contested fight. That is why Garza at +270 may have some value.

[bjpenn85]

may have is an understatement. This is a 50 50 fight where one of the fighters is awarded a hype.

[Educ8d Degener8]

0.50u Chargers ML, Chiefs ML, Cain
0.25u Redskins ML, Garza

Backing the Bolts, so look for Rivers to sh*t the bed once again...

[Socrates]

Guys i want to do a small parlay. I'll be at Vegas, is there any casino you guys prefer, or a place you guys know of that has a lot of good mixed martial arts, and boxing odds? A link or website where i can scan odds, then drop by personally? thanks!

[ghost kid]

Guys i want to do a small parlay. I'll be at Vegas, is there any casino you guys prefer, or a place you guys know of that has a lot of good mixed martial arts, and boxing odds? A link or website where i can scan odds, then drop by personally? thanks!

As far as I know, Palazzo/Venetian is the only hotel that allow MMA parlays.

[TheCalculator]

As far as I know, Palazzo/Venetian is the only hotel that allow MMA parlays.

Hey Ghost -- what's the limits like in Vegas for MMA bouts?

[NunyaBidness]

Hey Ghost -- what's the limits like in Vegas for MMA bouts?

Effectively unlimited. You can place a limit bet once, and then go back in line and place it again, they might move the line on you, but you can just go down the street and keep betting.

[TheCalculator]

Effectively unlimited. You can place a limit bet once, and then go back in line and place it again, they might move the line on you, but you can just go down the street and keep betting.

Thanks!

[BIGDAY]

As far as I know, Palazzo/Venetian is the only hotel that allow MMA parlays.

Last time I was in Vegas I layed parlays at Golden Nugget no problem.

[MMAbetMASTA]

Effectively unlimited. You can place a limit bet once, and then go back in line and place it again, they might move the line on you, but you can just go down the street and keep betting.

haha, just read your gabe banter thread.

Is that really gabe in the pic, droppin' a deuce??? lol... you guys seriously make me bust up laughing out loud sometimes, my girl looks at me like I'm crazy sometimes sitting at my computer..

[MMAbetMASTA]

Rosa fights both light heavy and heavy. This is a light heavy bout. His last fight he was 261 versus Beltran. So he is cutting 56 lbs in 4 months. Have to question his cardio coming into this fight. Lucas is an all-american wrestler. The only time he really stepped up in competition he was subbed by Giva Santana and Richard Hale. I think if Lucas uses wrestling to control this fight he'll win by dec or finish Rosa after he gasses. However, if this stays on the feet I think Lucas gets KTFO. I'm counting on Lucas using his wrestling and played him +130.

Oh and I maxed bet that MoFo with points in the SBRbook. "Cause I'm big time like that.

Thanks for the words about clay/demarques, Hoff.

I totally feel you on that... However, I do kinda reason as Vitoch said, that while demarques seems to only beat lower tier fighters, I do believe clay is lower tier and not really impressive anywhere. However, the odds as you've said is what has kept me from pulling the trigger (and the fuckin' lines STILL aren't up on my book site...!). Good reasoning, thank you.

Glad to see you're on lucas. I actually thought it might be the opposite of what you said, where rosa smothers lucas with size via wrestling and clinch war, and lucas tries to keep it on the feet and at a distance (I really am not impressed with rosa's stand up and think he should go back to his wrestling roots). However, I see what you're saying and am inclined to agree. I think I will be banking on finishing capability, power and cardio - which I am on lucas for. Def concerned about his comp record, as you've said the few decent comp lucas fought he lost to or struggled with. Sucks he isn't on my site yet, otherwise I'd pull the trigger I think...

GL meng!

[NunyaBidness]

haha, just read your gabe banter thread.

Is that really gabe in the pic, droppin' a deuce??? lol... you guys seriously make me bust up laughing out loud sometimes, my girl looks at me like I'm crazy sometimes sitting at my computer..

It's him alright

[Vaughany]

About 20mins of JDS working pads

[brooks85]

big news for bendo and guida

http://www.cagepotato.com/report-guida-vs-henderson-winner-to-challenge-frankie-edgar-in-japan/

[TheCalculator]

Anyone know the exact time the prelims start tomorrow?

[Vaughany]

4.45 et

[Vaughany]

The very entertaining Semerzier vs Swanson fight if anybody hasn't seen it or wants to view it again...

http://vimeo.com/16787650

[TheCalculator]

4.45 et

Thanks!

And thanks for the fight video -- I was looking for Swanson footage all week.