Why I just tripled my CroCop bet....

**Vaughany** · 10-25-11, 04:24 PM

Just playing devil's advocate but couldnt reduced size also mean he has more speed and can therefore avoid getting hit as much thus making the need to have a solid chin redundant?

**proposition joe** · 10-25-11, 04:35 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Just playing devil's advocate but couldnt reduced size also mean he has more speed and can therefore avoid getting hit as much thus making the need to have a solid chin redundant?

It very well could.

My thought process is this. Roy's cardio has never been a weakness. His greatest weakness has and will continue to be his wrestling. He was unable to get JDS down (or chose not to even really try) and was completely tossed around by Mir, who is a jiu-jitsu guy as well. He gassed in the Mir fight because he was sick not because of a lack of cardio.

Mirko no longer posseses the same lethal striking that he once did, but he is still a very, very technical striker. He throws mostly straight punches as his kicks have lost their snap and can potentially leave him open to takedowns. Mirko's weakness is his chin and his bottom game on the ground. His takedown defense is very solid particularly out of the clinch, which is the one area where Nelson's takedowns are somewhat sufficient.

Nelson has two ways to win this fight. Eat a shot to give a shot and go chin-to-chin with the aging and fragile striker until he gets the KO. Or clinch with Mirko and drag the fight to the ground where he can use his weight and great top control to work for a submission. Nelson being lighter mitigates the two threats that he poses to Mirko. He will have less power in his hands. He will have less of a chin. He will have a harder time dragging Mirko down. AND he will have more trouble keeping Mirko down once he gets him there.

Even with improved speed, Nelson's loopy hooks will have slower deliveries than the crisp, down-the-middle straight punches that CroCop will be throwing. In my eyes, this went from being a value play to me thinking that CroCop should actually be a decent favorite to win.

Just my .02$ though..

**NunyaBidness** · 10-25-11, 04:45 PM

Originally posted by proposition joe

Higher bodyfat % has been proven to cushion the brain within the skull making it harder to know someone out

I would like to read the studies that prove this, please link them.

**Vaughany** · 10-25-11, 04:56 PM

From what I've read when "studies" or perhaps more appropriately "articles" talk about fighters having better chins when they are at heavier weights, it is more to do with how the weight-cut effects the fighter's overall physical condition rather than their actual chin. Like with Cotto, they reckon he is less "chinny" at welterweight then he was at light-welterweight - now I understand that this is because he is in better condition mentally and physically as he isnt as dehydrated from the weight cut - rather than to do with having a tiny bit more fat cushioning his brain! I've not seen anything about higher body fat % cushioning the brain - would also be interested to see any studies on this. But I couldnt imagine Jonathan Goulet being any different if he was a Welterweight or if he ate shit-loads and became a MW or LHW!

**proposition joe** · 10-25-11, 05:02 PM

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

I would like to read the studies that prove this, please link them.

http://tnation.t-nation.com/free_online_forum/sports_boxing_fighting_mma_combat/knockout_avoid_it;jsessionid=9FBFA9A6D281559103EE99CC031730C4-mcd02.hydra

I don't know if you're familiar with T-Nation but the guys there are extremely knowledgeable and false facts aren't tossed around there without being refuted quickly. I don't have the time or desire to look up specific studies but I would presume that they are out there somewhere.

**TheCalculator** · 10-25-11, 05:17 PM

Nelson's bodyfat is still WELLLLLL over 20%. I really don't think it's going to affect "the cushioning" inside his brain. If he would crack single digits, I might consider it for a second.

**cheeese** · 10-25-11, 05:19 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Just playing devil's advocate but couldnt reduced size also mean he has more speed and can therefore avoid getting hit as much thus making the need to have a solid chin redundant?

Also speed is a component of punching power. If he gains enough hand speed he could actually hit harder at a lower weight.

**NunyaBidness** · 10-25-11, 05:25 PM

Originally posted by proposition joe

http://tnation.t-nation.com/free_onl...C4-mcd02.hydra

I don't know if you're familiar with T-Nation but the guys there are extremely knowledgeable and false facts aren't tossed around there without being refuted quickly. I don't have the time or desire to look up specific studies but I would presume that they are out there somewhere.

Indian Yogi Subbayah Pullavar’s Levitation act

http://socioparivar.wordpress.com/2008/12/29/indian-yogi-subbayah-pullavar%E2%80%99s-levitation-act/

Indian Yogis performing acts of levitation have been documented as far back as 1884, but when a report and pictures were published in 1936 of Yogi Subbayah Pullavar, an Indian Guru, levitating for …

It's a fact that Indian yogis can levitate. I don't know if you're familiar with socioparivar, but he's extremely knowledgeable about this topic. I don't have the desire to look up anything more specific, but I'll just post it here as fact.

So, anyway, I'm tripling my bet on Ramsey Nijem, as an indian, I think he'll use his levitation powers to fly away from danger. I think he's indian, he's brown enough, I don' thave the desire to look that up either.

**proposition joe** · 10-25-11, 05:26 PM

Originally posted by cheeese

Also speed is a component of punching power. If he gains enough hand speed he could actually hit harder at a lower weight.

Why would losing weight increase hand speed? Foot speed? Yes. Hand speed? I've been training Muay Thai for years. My hands get faster when I work more hands, my movement and kicks get better when I'm lighter.

**proposition joe** · 10-25-11, 05:31 PM

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

http://socioparivar.wordpress.com/20...evitation-act/

It's a fact that Indian yogis can levitate. I don't know if you're familiar with socioparivar, but he's extremely knowledgeable about this topic. I don't have the desire to look up anything more specific, but I'll just post it here as fact.

So, anyway, I'm tripling my bet on Ramsey Nijem, as an indian, I think he'll use his levitation powers to fly away from danger. I think he's indian, he's brown enough, I don' thave the desire to look that up either.

What?

Dude, I don't care if you agree with me or not. I posted this for the sake of discussion. Did I say my opinion was better than yours? Did I imply that I thought I was the Alpha Omega of mixed martial arts knowledge? Get off your ******* high horse.

**THE_LOCKSMITH** · 10-25-11, 05:33 PM

gut looks almost gone, thought it was Zach Galifianakis

**NunyaBidness** · 10-25-11, 05:39 PM

Originally posted by proposition joe

What?

Dude, I don't care if you agree with me or not. I posted this for the sake of discussion. Did I say my opinion was better than yours? Did I imply that I thought I was the Alpha Omega of mixed martial arts knowledge? Get off your ******* high horse.

Good, we're discussing it. Don't get upset.

I don't have an opinion about this, you may be right, but I would like to see data before including it in my capping. Anecdotal evidence doesn't help anyone. Opinions aren't useful, the truth is. Does high bodyfat minimize knockouts? Maybe. Cabbage Correira, Roy Nelson, and Joey Beltran existing does not prove it to be true.

I would legitimately like to see information that supports or denies this claim. Otherwise you can lump it in with the Joe Rogan "big head" theory of knockout prevention.

**proposition joe** · 10-25-11, 05:59 PM

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

Good, we're discussing it. Don't get upset.

I don't have an opinion about this, you may be right, but I would like to see data before including it in my capping. Anecdotal evidence doesn't help anyone. Opinions aren't useful, the truth is. Does high bodyfat minimize knockouts? Maybe. Cabbage Correira, Roy Nelson, and Joey Beltran existing does not prove it to be true.

I would legitimately like to see information that supports or denies this claim. Otherwise you can lump it in with the Joe Rogan "big head" theory of knockout prevention.

That's fair.

I would too, but unfortunately my Google search resulted in a bunch of people trying to "knock out the fat" AKA lose weight so I became frustrated.

It's still a theory until someone finds a study or some evidence but there is a lot of merit to it. Like you referenced, many of the guys known as having great chins are stocky and overweight. Even Leben isn't the most ripped. The only really thin guy that I can think of that is known for his chin is Cerrone but in my opinion, having an iron chin is more impressive when you're fighting at 265 rather than 155.

Anyways, the whole chin thing is the least of my arguments that this will hurt Nelson. During his TUF fights, he used his weight very, very well in getting fights to the ground and keeping them there. I had pegged CroCop to outstrike Nelson if the fight went that way before even hearing about Big Country's weight loss anyways, so the whole striking thing, in my opinion and analysis of this matchup, is less relevant.

**TheCalculator** · 10-25-11, 06:20 PM

All the organs (including the brains) have internal fat. And when you get ripped and shredded, some of that fat gets burned up. So there is some truth to what you're saying IMO. I just don't think Nelson is there yet.

I do think Crocop has a chance to outpoint Nelson here. I've hedged my Nelson bets that way.

**bogbat** · 10-25-11, 06:33 PM

Originally posted by TheCalculator

All the organs (including the brains) have internal fat. And when you get ripped and shredded, some of that fat gets burned up. So there is some truth to what you're saying IMO. I just don't think Nelson is there yet. I do think Crocop has a chance to outpoint Nelson here. I've hedged my Nelson bets that way.

I think it has more to do with that when you become extremely dehydrated you lose a lot of your cerebral spinal fluid (CSF) which is a layer of fluid that surrounds ones brain and brain stem. It may also reduce the blood brain barrier, but I'm not sure about that.

**TheCalculator** · 10-25-11, 06:38 PM

1% dehydration drops strength 10%. Most of the fighters that cut a lot of weight do not rehydrate 100%. This is definitely a huge factor.

Originally posted by bogbat

I think it has more to do with that when you become extremely dehydrated you lose a lot of your cerebral spinal fluid (CSF) which is a layer of fluid that surrounds ones brain and brain stem. It may also reduce the blood brain barrier, but I'm not sure about that.

**NunyaBidness** · 10-25-11, 06:50 PM

Originally posted by TheCalculator

1% dehydration drops strength 10%.

This is exactly what I'm talking about. You're just posting numbers here, and saying it like it means something. Beyond the fact that it's probably not true, your numbers have no meaning. 1% dehydration doesn't mean anything. What happens when you get to 11% dehydration? And how do you determine dehydration percentage to make it useful in your capping?

**NunyaBidness** · 10-25-11, 06:54 PM

Originally posted by proposition joe

That's fair.

I would too, but unfortunately my Google search resulted in a bunch of people trying to "knock out the fat" AKA lose weight so I became frustrated.

It's still a theory until someone finds a study or some evidence but there is a lot of merit to it. Like you referenced, many of the guys known as having great chins are stocky and overweight. Even Leben isn't the most ripped. The only really thin guy that I can think of that is known for his chin is Cerrone but in my opinion, having an iron chin is more impressive when you're fighting at 265 rather than 155.

Anyways, the whole chin thing is the least of my arguments that this will hurt Nelson. During his TUF fights, he used his weight very, very well in getting fights to the ground and keeping them there. I had pegged CroCop to outstrike Nelson if the fight went that way before even hearing about Big Country's weight loss anyways, so the whole striking thing, in my opinion and analysis of this matchup, is less relevant.

Yeah, I was lead to the same websites. . .

I agree with your overall sentiment, and am on CroCop as well. I just think it's dangerous for people to say things as if they have scientific validity, when they probably don't. There is a large group-think mentality on this board, (which is largely positive as there are some great cappers here), if you notice everyone tends to have good nights together and bad nights together, there is not much going against the grain here.

If that is going to be the theme of the place then its important to determine what is factual before it becomes memetic.

**rocky mattioli** · 10-25-11, 07:44 PM

you guys certainly are diehards with crocop......he hasn`y beaten a legit upper-ufc caliber fighter since 2007..his workrate in fights falls somehwere in between "very little" and "less than that"...not saying that i`d lay those odds with nelson,but imo,he`s a good level above perosh/barry and al turk.....and does in fact have the grappling edge...substantially...

just seems that this guy`s rep supercedes anything he`s actually accomplished in a very long time...

**TheCalculator** · 10-25-11, 08:12 PM

I have a degree in the science of physical activity and I've read hundreds of research articles.

I would suggest you get educated before bashing other people's posts so you don't across uneducated and have to eat crow.

The actual numbers are between 4% and 10% depending on the research (and it also negatively affects every other system in the body).
Here's some reading for you:

http://edulife.com.br/dados%5CArtigos%5CEducacao%20Fisica%5CMusculação%20e%20Condicionamento%20Fisico%5CEffects%20of%20Dehydration%20and%20Rehydration%20on%20the.pdf

Physiological effects of a weight loss regimen practiced by college wrestlers - PubMed

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/2355820

The effects of weight loss (dehydration) techniques (which mimicked techniques used prior to actual competition) used by intercollegiate wrestlers on selected physiological parameters (strength, anaerobic power, anaerobic capacity, the lactate threshold (LT), and peak aerobic power) were examined in …

And for the record -- dehydration and rehydration doesn't affect my capping. We're discussing the affects of dehydration and knockouts.

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

This is exactly what I'm talking about. You're just posting numbers here, and saying it like it means something. Beyond the fact that it's probably not true, your numbers have no meaning. 1% dehydration doesn't mean anything. What happens when you get to 11% dehydration? And how do you determine dehydration percentage to make it useful in your capping?

**Kaladarus** · 10-25-11, 09:54 PM

This thread has a lot of useless information. Not sure where everyone is getting ideas of CC getting a KO here, but that is one of the least likely outcomes of the fight. All these numbers and percentages realistically are very irrelevant. They have nothing to do with handicapping the fight. I don't cap based on someone maybe having a slightly worse chin. What grade was Nelson's chin before the weight cut and what is it now? If you can fill numbers like this for every HW and all of CC's last opponents then maybe this is something to look, but otherwise it's a complete waste of times.

Since everything here is not proven and all guesses (x%-x% basically), we can think of other arguments. Could Roy Nelson's change in diet strengthen his chin? Diet changes a lot and is sometimes a game changer. Is it impossible here that Nelson's chin is actually better? I'm sure I can find articles that can confirm this. Also does better cardio give you faster recovery from hard shots and is Nelson going to have better cardio? Too many factors to consider here. In the end, all this science talk is just a guess and pretty much useless.

**sideloaded** · 10-26-11, 06:58 AM

wow what a fuking hamburger thread.

**bogbat** · 10-26-11, 11:15 AM

Originally posted by TheCalculator

1% dehydration drops strength 10%. Most of the fighters that cut a lot of weight do not rehydrate 100%. This is definitely a huge factor.

What does that have to do with my post? Roy's deadlift 1 rep max might go down a bit but I hightly doubt losing weight off his gut will greatly affect his functional strength.

**TheCalculator** · 10-26-11, 11:43 AM

Originally posted by bogbat

What does that have to do with my post? Roy's deadlift 1 rep max might go down a bit but I hightly doubt losing weight off his gut will greatly affect his functional strength.

If you read more studies -- everything gets affected by dehydration (VO2 max, etc...). Which is irrelevant for Roy's fight since he's not cutting water weight.

**gabe** · 10-26-11, 06:00 PM

Cro Cop believes this is going to be an easy W for him. If he believes it, I will too. Too good to pass up at +205.

**MMAbetMASTA** · 10-26-11, 07:31 PM

I'm not sold on TS' theory, but as I've said in the ufc 137 'locks' thread, I think crocrop is a very live dog and is looking good at those odds, put about 60 on him at +240. I'd put country as a favorite if I were a book, but he is being overvalued big time imo, especially with the style match up he is facing.

**gabe** · 10-27-11, 05:46 AM

Originally posted by MMAbetMASTA

I'm not sold on TS' theory, but as I've said in the ufc 137 'locks' thread, I think crocrop is a very live dog and is looking good at those odds, put about 60 on him at +240. I'd put country as a favorite if I were a book, but he is being overvalued big time imo, especially with the style match up he is facing.

I agree, Roy should be more like -175

**sundin4prez** · 10-27-11, 06:11 PM

i got money on nelson... basicaly im a die hard pride fan ( cro cop, fedor, yoshida, saku and wandy).. so my strategy is if roy wins i go home with more money in my pocket and if cro cop wins i will be ecstatic to say the least...

**MMAbetMASTA** · 10-27-11, 07:40 PM

Originally posted by sundin4prez

i got money on nelson... basicaly im a die hard pride fan ( cro cop, fedor, yoshida, saku and wandy).. so my strategy is if roy wins i go home with more money in my pocket and if cro cop wins i will be ecstatic to say the least...

I feel you on that logic / reasoning - its how I look at some of my plays when I bet against old school heroes. GL!

**FlashinLeather** · 10-27-11, 09:48 PM

just let crocop go....I had to, its not easy but it has to be done.

**GunShard** · 10-27-11, 10:24 PM

I see Cro Cop winning. But this fight could go either way.

**Vaughany** · 10-28-11, 02:59 AM

Originally posted by GunShard

I see Cro Cop winning. But this fight could go either way.

Solid insight

**GunShard** · 10-28-11, 03:34 AM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Solid insight

lol, I have an insight on another thread. I don't want to repeat myself.