vitor says he is fighting in november, so probably this card.
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oh my guess who is back bros
Karo Parisyan vs Dennis Hallman
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cant wait to be bet on hallman in that one^
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phil davis vs tim boetschComment -
Sotiropolous vs Joe LauzonComment -
Shaping up to be a great card. Bones will obliterate Griffin. Machida should really utilize leg kicks against Rampage.Comment -
Sotiropolous
sure 100%
I hope
glComment -
Interesting fight. Lauzon may be worth a play as a decent sized dog in this one.Comment -
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ufc fight of the year>Comment -
Will Karo puss out again in the week before the fight?Comment -
Signs point to yes.Comment -
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penn vs hughes
Gerald Harris vs Maiquel FalcãoComment -
mark munoz vs aaron simpsonComment -
A knee injury has forced Rory MacDonald out of next month's UFC 123 event, and Brian Foster has agreed to step in as a replacement and fight fellow welterweight Matt Brown.
MMAjunkie.com today confirmed the switch with sources close to the show, though UFC officials have not formally announced it.
Son of a bitch!!!!!!! MacDonald was going to be my play of the year. I was prepared to place my largest wager ever on him.Comment -
Pretty pissed. Im going to this card and really wanted to see him
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Anybody like Simpson and Brown as dogs on the SPIKE card? I'm liking Simpson and Munoz to go to decision and Foster to beat Brown by decision through superior wrestling, both are tough as hell and dont see a TKO or KO and should have about equal BJJ. On the flipside Larson and Petz had never been TKO'd or KO'd before being dominated by Foster but I dont think u can compare their toughness to Brown's, plus I think Brown is a better fighter than Petz or Larson.Comment -
Hoperfully Rampage trained better after his loss to Rashad he looked terrible. But I think Machida will win but should set up to be a good fight regardlessComment -
Machida-Rampage won't be a war, it will be a one-sided beatdown, and Machida's swinging the hammer
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probably, what if rampage gets a takedown? any hope there? also is everyone still going w/ hughes. just watched penn/hughes 1 again and hughes could not get up with bj on top the entire round until bj got the submission. that was awhile ago thoughComment -
Hughes as reached +151 on pinnacle now as I predicted! Was gonna jump on it but think I'm just gonna take Hughes by decision at +350 or better.Comment -
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Forgive the length, fellas. I love talking MMA bets and never had a good place to do it. My focus is to explain my thoughts and get some opposition to balance them out, not to attention-whore. I'm here as a bettor first and fan second, my view is impartial.
I'm liking Machida, Davis, Hughes, Simpson, and Brown. I plan to do a couple parlays and a straight for Machida.
RAMPAGE/MACHIDA: Rampage is tailor-made for Machida to pick apart or outright destroy. And if Lyoto feels any pressure, he won't hesitate to work his sumo trips -- in fact I think we'll see those regardless. Rampage lacks motivation and desire, Machida is the not the guy to be fighting with those deficiencies. This fight is a near lock IMO.
BOETSCH/DAVIS: I have no problem with calling Davis a full lock here, as the odds may reflect. Boetsch's 3 losses come from Vlad, Hamill, and Brilz, all wrestlers of course. If he had anything above a way-less-than-decent puncher's chance, it's out the window with that. Timmy'll be overwhelmed with control, another grappling spectacle from Phil Davis.
The rest are about 60/40 to me, in favor of the guys I stated above. Would love input on these.
PENN/HUGHES: Hughes couldn't deal with Alves' ferocity & TDD in 2008, it's plausible to think BJ could mimic Thiago's performance. Plus Hughes' speed, boxing, and footwork doesn't come close to Edgar's -- so that's no longer a looming disadvantage for BJ. He also gets a break from the weight cut, the 5 round fights, and fighting young title-contenders.
Besides the fact Hughes has the same amount of losses as Penn but a staggering 30 more wins, on paper it's looking like Penn's fight. My gut says Hughes, though.
First of all, what's BJ's way of winning here? TKO, sub, decision? I just don't see one. I chalk my feeling up to momentum - in that it's not on BJ's side. I expect him to take Matt lightly and slack in training, whereas I believe Hughes is the harder worker/more serious fighter. As for not having to cut weight; BJ shows up a little soggy-looking at WW, more of a strike than an advantage IMO. And for his break in 5 rounders; Hughes finished him in the 3rd round of their last fight.
Hughes actually evolved after his last loss, as far as technical striking goes (the leg kick clinic & TKO on Renzo, the perfectly timed hook on Almeida). BJ devolved. His performance went from "off" in his first loss to Edgar -- to "shit" in the second. How uninterested did he look in that fight? Big difference in opponents I know, but these recent wins and losses between the two have to have some effect.
Then we have BJ's low-quality, negative cornering come to light. Is his training parallel to his cornering? I would think so.
Gotta give this more thought and let my balancing play out. I'm keeping Hughes' age in mind but the gut is the gut and it says Hughes still has that "heart of a champ" and that BJ still lacks focus and preparation.
MUNOZ/SIMPSON: My biggest hunch for Simpson comes from Munoz' inability to deliver. Munoz made Hamill look like Machida in the stand-up, he looked like shit against Grove and was only saved by Grove looking shittier, and his last fight was an all-around embarrassment. Holding a leg the whole time?
I understand Okami's a tough vet and a good wrestler, but I saw no plan B from Munoz. Which leads me to think: will he ever have a plan B? I just don't see the wrestling credentials translate into the cage and I don't think I'll ever be confident that his striking can supplement when in need.
Granted, Simpson hasn't looked the best, either. Both have tough chins (that get hit more than they should) and questionable cardio. The difference to me is that I think Simpson's wrestling and striking is just a notch above Munoz'.
This is the toughest of my picks though. If I leave out any fight, this will be it.
FOSTER/BROWN: Matt Brown took the first round against Lytle, from what my vague memory and play-by-play tell me. If Brown had a win coming into this fight - any win - I don't doubt he'd be the favorite here, and a bigger one than Foster is now. Just what have we seen from Foster that gives him the edge?
I loved his destruction of Brock Larson, but this and knocking out Forrest Petz doesn't sell him for me. Brian Foster's W's are limited to a select type and I don't see Brown being that type. I expect this to stay on the feet, with Brown getting a TKO win or UD.Comment -
Welcome to the forum bro...no worries bout the length, the longer the better I say...as long as it remains profound (see what I did there)!
I agree with most of your picks, only one I'm not sure about is Brown over Foster, although I wouldnt take Foster at his current odds. Also, I've always been a big fan of Brown because of his background story and due to the epic Drago Sell destruction so tend to stay away from betting on or against my favourite fighters. Im more inclined to just bet on it going to decision. Brown is tough as hell and only get's finished by superior grapplers (usually superior BJJ practitioners more specifically like Lytle and Ricardo Almeida) but I dont think Foster's BJJ is necessarily that much better than Brown's (and defo not better than Lytle as we saw in their fight or Almeida), although he should have an advantage with the wrestling, but then Brown isnt easy to take down or keep down. Foster is similar in that he is very durable - typical Team HitSquad fighter from the Matt Hughes mould - and like Brown has only seemed susceptible against superior grapplers (Lytle and Story). With all this in mind, it makes sense to me to bet on it going to decision at odds of -125 or better.
I'll most probably also be taking Hughes/Penn to go to decision, although if I'd had to pick a winner I'd also go with Country Boy. Davis should dominate Boetsch for sure, I expect another 3 round decision win though so will probly take him to win by decision at +150 or better....Boetsch has never been submitted and TKO'd only once against Hamill.
Other than Sotiropolous by decision, my biggest play of the night will mostly likely be Machida by decision straddled with Rampage 'KO of the Night'. I expect Machida do go back to being more elusive after tht KO loss to Rua and pick apart Rampage without taking too many risks. Rampage is so flat footed nowadays that it will difficult for him to close the distance and close in on Machida or pin him against the cage. However, it is worth noting that some of Rampage's KO's have come through counter punching hooks (against Liddel and Wanderlei) so I cant rule out him catching Machida. If he does TKO/KO Machida he will definitely get KO of the Night award due to it being an upset and main event so makes sense to do that rather than just Rampage to win by TKO/KO IMO.
As you can see, similarly to what I expect from 122 tonight, I expect a lot of fights next weekend to go to decision!Comment -
Nice writeup, Profound! I got your reported post about the margin. Your new post seems OK though - let me know if you need anything else.
Reload
SBR ModeratorComment -
Thanks a lot, guys. Had these picks running through my mind non-stop all week, glad to finally have a place to write 'em out. I'll let 'em simmer the way I do and make changes accordingly, as I haven't placed a bet just yet.Comment -
I agree with all your picks Profound. Also Vaughany you don't think it's likely Machida will knock Rampage out? Rampage's typical strategy has him going forward and Rashad was almost able to capitalize in their fight. With similar fighting styles of Thiago Silva and Rashad when Machida fought them they were both knocked out. If Rampage uses his style he can potentially get knocked out. I was thinking about betting Machida by decision initially, but after reviewing previous fights I'm not so sure anymore.Comment -
Yeah I have thought about that potentially happening as well and depending on the odds I may end up even hedging the Machida by decision play with Rampage KO of the Night and Machida KO of the Night. My reasoning for thinking that Machida wont TKO/KO Rampage is simply because of Rampage's solid chin and that I think Machida will be more elusive and take less risks after the Shogun loss. Rampage has never been TKO'd or KO'd in the Octagon and his TKO/KO losses in Pride to Rua and Wanderlei were due to foot stomps (Rua fight) and against Wanderlei he took an absolute barrage of knees and took a while before he collapsed. That was a time when the Axe Murderer was at his peak IMO and was and is a lot more aggressive than Machida. Moreover, since then Rampage KO'd Wanderlei with comfortable ease through counter punching. I personally think it's more likely that Rampage beats Machida by KO than the other way round, but obviously the most likely outcome by far is Machida by decision.Comment -
I'm still looking intently at this fight. I think you have to consider that Tim was a late replacement in the Hamill fight and a super late (3 days) against Matyushenko. Not surprisingly he gassed in both fights after doing well in the first. He won the first round on the score cards against Brilz as well before gassing, showing really good takedown defense.
I don't think the first two instances with a short camp (Hamill) and no camp at all (Vlad) really should reflect fully on his record, so we are left with one conclusive case where he had poor conditioning and lost a close 29-28 decision as a result.
One instance to me isn't enough evidence to declare lock, after all I wouldn't declare Forrest Griffin as a lock over Shogun
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Davis will destroy him.Comment -
should be some good fights cant waitComment -
Forrest will whip that ass don't worry about thatComment -
But where does Boetsch threaten?
What you said is actually what I'm thinking about Boetsch: he'll make it a potent effort and the cardio it's gonna demand will reserve the majority of his struggle's success to the first round, and I feel that only equals defense, not offense. That's as far as Boey's luck (and skill) may go, IMO.
Also IMO there's no such thing as "enough evidence" for a lock. Maybe "enough research", but I feel it's a lock when my certainty is at its highest, and my certainty isn't always dominated by hard facts.
On that same token, I think letting popular opinion or a huge fav/dog sway me towards a sizable commitment (locks are big plays or not locks, I assume?) would be the "cardinal sin" to playing, a guarantee of working backwards, and at the least; an indication of amateurism. That's definitely not what I'm on -- for the record here, fellow players.
So I'm glad you questioned it, otherwise it's a "blanket lock" and we don't need those. Here are my essential reasons:
1) The actual fighting: Davis' control, athleticism, talent. Has Boestch ever amazed us? We don't know what would have happened if Tim didn't gas/lose against 3 wrestlers but he did so the possibilities for him to get the win take a big cut with this being the initial glance. Second glance only tells me Tim gassed to a 63-34 college wrestler in Brilz - minus the doctor notes. Davis has also been tested by a dangerous striker with decent TDD in Gustaffson.
2) Paper: Davis' wrestling pedigree is too reputable; 116-17 overall, four-time NCAA Division I National Champion. Boey's background: 4 time high school wrestling champ, with some-but-nothing-notable college wrestling. I'm confident I know where Tim's potential begins & ends (low/mid level) and have yet to see the extent of Davis'.
3) Resources and other comforting intangibles: Can we imagine the discrepancy between the training of the two? I know the "well he trained with" line can't benefit when stacking two top-notch fighters - but only one here is top-notch and the exposure that follows is too one-sided for me to negate Davis' training with, Machida & Velasquez, for example.
Disregarding the not-so-sweet price, this fight has the most safety and the least danger a bettor can hope for. Though IMO Machida/Page is nearly as close in the safety/danger aspects and at around half the price...Comment -
If Machida wins it will be a decision. Rampage has a granite chin. He will be fired up for this fight. I'm staying away from this fight because Machida is coming off that brutal KO loss. If Rampage lands on Lyoto's chin its all over.Comment
