Vaughany's MMA Picks...

**NunyaBidness** · 02-21-12, 06:44 PM

Originally posted by gabe

Nun, which State are you in?

Oaxaca

**gabe** · 02-21-12, 06:46 PM

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

That argument would hold more merit if arbs constantly had 60% edges and near unlimited scalability. Sportsbetting has small limits, small edges, and juice to be paid on both sides. In addition you have to manage numerous bankrolls and keep from being noticed. The more reasonable argument is, you bought Apple at 300, thinking it had great value at the time. The next day its at 303 do you sell? If its at 500 a few years later, did you make a mistake?

how i've transitioned from disliking you to loving you.

oh my. (george takei voice)

**NunyaBidness** · 02-21-12, 06:46 PM

Originally posted by The HOFF

So getting a good line automatically means that side wins?

If you have x% edge over several hundred trials your results should converge pretty well, if you're not overbetting.

**NunyaBidness** · 02-21-12, 06:47 PM

Originally posted by gabe

If Nunya hadn't agreed with me, this could have been an argument that went on for days.

Let the record show that you're agreeing with me preemptively.

**gabe** · 02-21-12, 06:48 PM

Originally posted by The HOFF

So getting a good line automatically means that side wins?

Did you see me talking about getting good lines or arbing against guys he's confident in? Think before you say anything. Seriously.

**The HOFF** · 02-21-12, 06:52 PM

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

If you have x% edge over several hundred trials your results should converge pretty well, if you're not overbetting.

In math and statistics, yes. But this is fighting with so many other factors. Just because fighter A is given a line that says he wins 60% of the time, doesn't mean it averages out that he wins 60% of the time in that fight.

I'm not trying to prove you wrong or anything, you know way more than I do. I'm just saying you still have to pick the winner of the fight.

**NunyaBidness** · 02-21-12, 06:58 PM

Originally posted by The HOFF

In math and statistics, yes. But this is fighting with so many other factors. Just because fighter A is given a line that says he wins 60% of the time, doesn't mean he it averages out that he wins 60% of the time in that fight.

I'm not talking about the edge in the individual fight, sorry I didn't make that clear. I mean in this instance V's overall edge as a handicapper.

If after say 500 events you show an ROI of 5%. And there has been no significant changes in the overall market, you can be pretty sure that your true ROI is very close to 5% and you will likely continue down that path.

**The HOFF** · 02-21-12, 07:02 PM

Originally posted by gabe

Did you see me talking about getting good lines or arbing against guys he's confident in? Think before you say anything. Seriously.

Originally posted by gabe

BTW- if he didn't arb, his total profits would be a lot more than that

If he didn't arb, he would have plays on every fighter with a soft line. How do you know he would profit more than he has? All the fighters with a soft line would have to win.

**Beelzebubzy** · 02-21-12, 07:11 PM

Great counter points nunya

On a side note v keep posting your picks you are still the man despite this argument

**gabe** · 02-21-12, 07:13 PM

Originally posted by The HOFF

If he didn't arb, he would have plays on every fighter with a soft line. How do you know he would profit more than he has? All the fighters with a soft line would have to win.

Allow me to repeat myself: I was talking about arbing against fighters he's confident in, not every line he has no feel for. If he see's value in a line in a fight he has no opinion of and he knows he could arb out by fight time, then it would be smart for him to bet that line and arb... that's not what we're discussing, we're discussing arbing against fighters he believes will likely win.

Repeated myself twice, just to make sure you got it this time.

**NunyaBidness** · 02-21-12, 07:15 PM

Originally posted by The HOFF

If he didn't arb, he would have plays on every fighter with a soft line. How do you know he would profit more than he has? All the fighters with a soft line would have to win.

That's not true.

Easy example.

Guy A is rolling a 10-sided die, he says he'll give you +1000 if it lands on the 8. Guy B comes up and says he'll take -950 on it not landing on the 8. They are willing to play this game 1000 times.

We have an easy arb here by betting $1 with guy A and $9.95 with B each throw of the dice. Over 1,000 trials we will gain exactly $50. With zero risk!

However, if we were to only bet $1 with guy A on each throw, we expect to win 100 of the trials for $100 profit. We have doubled our income and lost 90% of the time.

What happened to the $50?

**Hannibal** · 02-21-12, 07:52 PM

All the fighters with a soft line wouldnt have to win...but they'd have to be winning according to the lines they have been capped at.

With a 10 sided dice the odds are always 1 in 10, but when it comes to a fight can you really be sure its capped correctly? that fighter A is really going to win X% of times over fighter B? I think when there is uncertainty, the free money or even just the free play on the soft side can have its merits.

**The HOFF** · 02-21-12, 07:55 PM

But again we're back to mathematics and not an individual breakdown of each fight. There is no set probability in a given fight. A coin flip will average 50/50 over the course of so many flips. But that doesn't happen with fights. There is a chance that he could lose every MMA bet he makes.

**Hannibal** · 02-21-12, 07:56 PM

An experienced fund manager would use options and futures in his portfolio, isnt this a similar idea?

**The HOFF** · 02-21-12, 07:56 PM

Originally posted by Hannibal

With a 10 sided dice the odds are always 1 in 10, but when it comes to a fight can you really be sure its capped correctly? that fighter A is really going to win X% of times over fighter B? I think when there is uncertainty, the free money or even just the free play on the soft side can have its merits.

This is what I'm kind of trying to say. But again Nunya, you know more than I do.

**Hannibal** · 02-21-12, 07:57 PM

Originally posted by The HOFF

But again we're back to mathematics and not an individual breakdown of each fight. There is no set probability in a given fight. A coin flip will average 50/50 over the course of so many flips. But that doesn't happen with fights. There is a chance that he could lose every MMA bet he makes.

I agree. The mathematics is one thing, but there is no set probability in a given fight.

**NunyaBidness** · 02-21-12, 07:59 PM

Originally posted by Hannibal

With a 10 sided dice the odds are always 1 in 10, but when it comes to a fight can you really be sure its capped correctly? that fighter A is really going to win X% of times over fighter B? I think when there is uncertainty, the free money or even just the free play on the soft side can have its merits.

No, you can't be sure that its capped correctly, but if I've got a 5% ROI over $1,000,000 in churn in the same market, I can be confident that my edge is significant. Whether or not you win an individual bet is immaterial.

**NunyaBidness** · 02-21-12, 08:01 PM

Originally posted by Hannibal

I agree. The mathematics is one thing, but there is no set probability in a given fight.

There absolutely is. How close a human can come to estimating it is another issue.

**NunyaBidness** · 02-21-12, 08:04 PM

Originally posted by The HOFF

There is a chance that he could lose every MMA bet he makes.

The chance of losing every pick for even a breakeven handicapper > 15 trials approaches zero very quickly.

**Hannibal** · 02-21-12, 08:04 PM

Well sounds like you've been capping fights very well.
i could use some of that edge myself buddy...
what are your plays this card?

**Hannibal** · 02-21-12, 08:05 PM

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

There absolutely is. How close a human can come to estimating it is another issue.

That was my meaning. I guess i did not articulate that thought accurately

**NunyaBidness** · 02-21-12, 08:09 PM

Originally posted by Hannibal

All the fighters with a soft line wouldnt have to win...but they'd have to be winning according to the lines they have been capped at.

This isn't so. You simply have to be beating the ones you're beating at a higher rate than the ones you're losing at.

**NunyaBidness** · 02-21-12, 08:11 PM

Originally posted by Hannibal

Well sounds like you've been capping fights very well.
i could use some of that edge myself buddy...
what are your plays this card?

You don't need to cap fights to win.

**Hannibal** · 02-21-12, 08:14 PM

close to pretentious now

**FightFightFight** · 02-21-12, 09:16 PM

You and your math nunya. Do you use voodoo dolls too? Free money is free money and value betting is for fools. Bet on the winner.

**NunyaBidness** · 02-21-12, 09:36 PM

Originally posted by Hannibal

close to pretentious now

LOL. Trying to share what I know to help the forum. You can be a dick all you want.

**Hannibal** · 02-21-12, 09:54 PM

and surely you have a lot to share.
Just wanted to have an idea of what your plays are like. It would be easier to share your methodology with an example.

**NunyaBidness** · 02-21-12, 10:13 PM

Searching is hard.

**gabe** · 02-21-12, 10:27 PM

Only plays I recall Nun being on are Nurmagomedov, Damien Maia, and Jared Papazian.

**Educ8d Degener8** · 02-21-12, 11:03 PM

F*ck all this complicated math mumbo jumbo Nunya!

Tell the people the simple way to make caaaaaaaaaaaaash mun-neeeeee...

Put all your money on AAPL and the Facebook IPO, and Anderson Silva + Jon Jones.

(keep some liquid funds for hookers, lap dances and party favors)

**The HOFF** · 02-21-12, 11:15 PM

Originally posted by FightFightFight

Bet on the winner.

This is my favorite capping strategy.

**Vitooch** · 02-21-12, 11:17 PM

I dont care for this math mumbo jumbo

**gabe** · 02-22-12, 12:00 AM

Math is the Devils language.

**cheeese** · 02-22-12, 12:05 AM

Chase steam man

**NunyaBidness** · 02-22-12, 02:27 AM

Originally posted by gabe

Only plays I recall Nun being on are Nurmagomedov, Damien Maia, and Jared Papazian.

I wasn't on Papazian.

I was on the other two. I've posted at least two dozen times in agreement in a thread here or there with whom I'm on without listing a specific play. I've made it clear if you look around that I will be playing Hioki and Lee on this card.

I also have a thread with around 20 'official plays' listed, in which this play is listed as pending:

UFC 144
Ben Henderson +125 3u to win 3.75u

None of these plays really indicate what my real action is however. On UFC 143 I had 97 individual bets placed, for example. I do most of my betting once limits open up and lines start moving around.