Vaughany's MMA Picks...

[DirtyX]

UFC FX 3 - Bets

I had some really bad nights the last couple of events. I took a break and didn't make any plays the last two UFC events, but on this card, there is money to be made imo... My book doesn't allow parlays or prop bets in MMA so I can't make safety bets to help out my straight bets.

Here are my plays:

ALL STRAIGHT UP

McCall (+125) over MM / $75.00 to win $94.00

Silva (-170) over Brenneman / $340.00 to win $200.00

Grice (+160) over Garcia / $75.00 to win $122.00

Rocha (+190) over Pierce / $60 to win $115.00

Martinez (-155) over Magalhaes / $155.00 to win $100.00


Risking - $705.00

Possible Payout - $631.00

[Vaughany]

I had some really bad nights the last couple of events. I took a break and didn't make any plays the last two UFC events, but on this card, there is money to be made imo... My book doesn't allow parlays or prop bets in MMA so I can't make safety bets to help out my straight bets.

Here are my plays:

ALL STRAIGHT UP

McCall (+125) over MM / $75.00 to win $94.00

Silva (-170) over Brenneman / $340.00 to win $200.00

Grice (+160) over Garcia / $75.00 to win $122.00

Rocha (+190) over Pierce / $60 to win $115.00

Martinez (-155) over Magalhaes / $155.00 to win $100.00


Risking - $705.00

Possible Payout - $631.00

Sometimes good to have a break and reset

Look good to me, although I cant bring myself to bet on Silva even with Brenneman's basic skillset. I think I'll just stick with Fight starting round 2, going distance, and Not Brenneman inside distance in a few parlays

[Vaughany]

Stann out of Lombard fight

[NunyaBidness]

Stann out of Lombard fight

He's smarter than he looks.

[The HOFF]

He's smarter than he looks.

The All-American fears no man. He's such a nice guy that he pulled out of the fight to save Lombard the embarrassment of being KTFO.

[Vaughany]

The All-American fears no man. He's such a nice guy that he pulled out of the fight to save Lombard the embarrassment of being KTFO.

ha oh golly-gosh!

BTW, jus noticed ur in this SBR poker tournament going on tht Im in

[The HOFF]

ha oh golly-gosh!

BTW, jus noticed ur in this SBR poker tournament going on tht Im in

I've seen you around a few times, but don't think we've really played against each other. Stay away from Illmatick, he's mean on the poker table.

[DublinMeUp]

McCall (+125) over MM / $75.00 to win $94.00

Silva (-170) over Brenneman / $340.00 to win $200.00

Look good to me, although I cant bring myself to bet on Silva even with Brenneman's basic skillset. I think I'll just stick with Fight starting round 2, going distance, and Not Brenneman inside distance in a few parlays

Was going to try get your opinion on McCall V, looks to me like great value. I think he was robbed last time, Johnson is fast and always a threat obv but I think McCall will fight a bit smarter and maybe employ some more wrestling, which should be where his biggest edge is. +130 @Pinnacle is money no?

Also Silva, What makes you hesitate? Brenneman is basically a lay and pray wrestler (he is quite good at it i'll admit) but even if he gets Silva down I think Silva's sub game is better than Brennemans defence, mainly i see Silva exploiting Charlies (lack of) striking.

I was thinking anything better than -200 on Silva was pretty good also.

Would appreciate any insight you had

[Vaughany]

I've seen you around a few times, but don't think we've really played against each other. Stay away from Illmatick, he's mean on the poker table.

haha Im always in top 5 for a while then lose patience and get silly...start trying to bluff to much and shiit!

[gabe]

Sometimes good to have a break and reset

Look good to me, although I cant bring myself to bet on Silva even with Brenneman's basic skillset. I think I'll just stick with Fight starting round 2, going distance, and Not Brenneman inside distance in a few parlays

I think I'm laying off playing that one straight, too... Same with the main event, might lay off that. Just keep McCall in parlays.

[gabe]

haha Im always in top 5 for a while then lose patience and get silly...start trying to bluff to much and shiit!

lol i'm that way, too.

[Imsmarterthanu]

Eric Silva is going to beast through Charlie Brenneman it won't even be competitive

brenneman is going to go airhead turn over and get pounded out

[ddream1]

well sir i liked martinez, going up it a bit seeing u like it alot.

[DirtyX]

Eric Silva is going to beast through Charlie Brenneman it won't even be competitive

brenneman is going to go airhead turn over and get pounded out

That is what I am hoping for. I think Silva inside the distance is a good bet also. I think he is going to make a statement against Charlie, similar to what Olivera did to Brookins or what McDonald did to Torress. Total domination of Brenniman is what I am predicting.

[gabe]

That fight is either gonna be all Silva or all Charlie--- I'm just gonna stay away and enjoy a knockout or yawn during a lay n pray.

I believe Brenneman could get Silva down, but could he do it before getting knocked out?

The smart play is to just go with the more experienced fighter as the underdog.

[DirtyX]

That fight is either gonna be all Silva or all Charlie--- I'm just gonna stay away and enjoy a knockout or yawn during a lay n pray.

I believe Brenneman could get Silva down, but could he do it before getting knocked out?

The smart play is to just go with the more experienced fighter as the underdog.

Even if Brenneman get's Silva down, I think Silva will be fine. Charlie will be fighting off Sub attempts the whole time, and I just don't see him holding Silva down for any significant amount of time. On the feet, Brenneman obviously has his hands full, and will have nothing for Silva. I capped Silva at -200 to -220 range, so I had to pound him at -170. I will be throwing more on him if the line moves in my favor. Calling a first round KO-TKO or Sub by Silva. And after this fight, (assuming Silva wins) we will be hard pressed to find Silva at anything less than -250.

Also, curious what your guys' thoughts are on Renan Barao at -160 to -170 over Faber. I think this kid is a future champ. However, if Faber gets to anything around +180 to +200, I see value in taking him as the underdog. Thoughts?

[The HOFF]

Also, curious what your guys' thoughts are on Renan Barao at -160 to -170 over Faber. I think this kid is a future champ. However, if Faber gets to anything around +180 to +200, I see value in taking him as the underdog. Thoughts?

Faber has nothing to offer in this fight. I already hit Barao hard at -150. Barao is a mix of Aldo and Cruz, which is a deadly combination for Faber. Faber is an old man in this sport and should receive a beat down.

[The Fobfather]

Even if Brenneman get's Silva down, I think Silva will be fine. Charlie will be fighting off Sub attempts the whole time, and I just don't see him holding Silva down for any significant amount of time. On the feet, Brenneman obviously has his hands full, and will have nothing for Silva. I capped Silva at -200 to -220 range, so I had to pound him at -170. I will be throwing more on him if the line moves in my favor. Calling a first round KO-TKO or Sub by Silva. And after this fight, (assuming Silva wins) we will be hard pressed to find Silva at anything less than -250.

Also, curious what your guys' thoughts are on Renan Barao at -160 to -170 over Faber. I think this kid is a future champ. However, if Faber gets to anything around +180 to +200, I see value in taking him as the underdog. Thoughts?

If Faber gets near +200, I might play him for a bit. While Barao has a better chance of finishing Faber, he also leaves himself open much more than Cruz.

[Vaughany]

From Ebersole's latest blog:
Athlete:
Brian Ebersole

Date:
June 4, 2012

Current Training Location:
Las Vegas, Nevada
Drysdale BJJ

Competition Countdown:
2 training weeks + fight week = June 22 Competition

This week’s list of goals:
Get submitted LESS often than last week
Do not get concussed in sparring sessions
Push through sprint sessions – test cardio
Stay out from underneath Forrest Griffin


I’ve just completed a week of training in Las Vegas, at Drysdale BJJ. It’s a fantastic facility with two mat spaces, allowing them to have two classes simultaneously. And there’s a whole lot of BJJ here, ranging from children’s classes through to pro competitors.

I’ve ventured to Las Vegas alone, which is a blessing and a curse. The blessing; I have complete freedom and silence to rest between sessions, with only food and laundry being my only outside concerns (well, and a little bit of work sending emails, writing blogs, and returning phone calls). The curse; well, I’m alone. Human beings crave contact. We’re social animals, and I’m no different. Needless to say, I’ve been on the phone a fair bit. And after training, I’ve lingered around the gym a little bit and have had a few passing conversations.

I’ve only been to Vegas for short visits, coming in from California to watch UFC bouts on multiple occasions. Being here for a longer time really doesn’t do the place justice. It’s got the reputation for being an around-the-clock adrenaline rush. Well, my previous visits were just that. Having friends around, having a fight myself, or watching a teammate compete, and then making the most of whatever portion of the weekend was left (and whatever $$ we had left); provided that adrenaline and excitement.

Being here alone, Vegas seems like any other city. The only thing that truly stands out is the architecture!!! It’s not exactly Rome, Italy; but Las Vegas was built for Gods. Everything is massive, most everything is pristine (don’t walk through alleys and backstreets if you don’t want to your idea of Vegas to be tarnished), and luxury & excess seem to rule the day. It’s impressive to look at, yes. But given that I’m a bit older, educated, and thoughtful — I certainly see the sinister side of the “magic”. Go watch a few documentaries, with an open mind, and I’m sure your view on many subjects will be altered too.

But back to training….. Monday, Wednesday, and Friday see a strong group of MMA competitors flocking to this academy, taking part in gruelling two-hour sessions. Equal parts technique drills and live application, my Wednesday and Friday were my most valued sessions. And if I were a fan, Friday would have been amazing. I was paired with Forrest Griffin during live grappling, and had him throw me around for 10 minutes. But, I’M NOT A FAN. I’M A FIGHTER. IT WAS NOT AMAZING. IT WAS THE LONGEST 10-MINUTES EVER!. He didn’t just lay on me, he kept a high pace. And that was my only strategy to defend myself, move more than him. Yeah, didn’t happen. The guy is a cardio machine, and seems to be quite ready for his UFC 148 bout vs. Tito Ortiz (their 3rd encounter and Tito’s retirement fight) on July 7th.

Last week, I predicted that I’d have a great week of training alongside some amazing athletes. And I did just that. I’m very grateful to have been welcomed into Drysdale BJJ by Robert himself, and his talented Muay Thai coach, Mark Beecher. Their classes are well-organized, their students and athletes are talented, and the room has a general feel to it that most clubs would dream of having. Gym owners and instructors talk of having a room of guys where ego does not come in as a cancer. This place has that feel. The athletes have such a level of respect, I believe, that they do not allow themselves to become selfish, act out, or close their minds to the lessons surrounding them.

One more week here, for now. I have a feeling I’ll be back in the future!

[MMAbetMASTA]

Adding:


29 units on Martinez at -140 to win 20.714 units;

31.4 units on Martinez at -151 to win 20.724 units;


23.86 units on Papazian at -115 to win 20.758 units;

20 units on Papazian at -123 to win 16.2 units;


12.9 units on Salas at +160 to win 20.64 units.

Fuckkk you and these lines!!! So jealous...

I agree with all the picks dude, had my eye on salas as well and couldn't believe he opened as a decent dog... Prob gonnna have similar plays, although I won't be going as heavy on papazian, assuming I even get a decent line on that match or a lot of these (yet I'm sure you'll have the opportunity to make a nice arb on that line)... GL meng, I have a feeling we gonna be in some nice money this weekend

Also liking pyle and hect, thoughts? think pyle is the exact type of fighter than always gives neer fits, except for the fact that he's probably the bigger than past opponents who can continuously ground neer and control him on the mat. Yet I'm worried that neer opens a cut or something, and I have seen pyle crumble when under pressure so it is a bit scary, but on paper and when comparing past opponents of neer this seems like pyle's win all day..(opponents who were much smaller and imo some with less skilled level of tds and grappling ability - I don't think neer has drastically improved his game since those fights either - he just hasn't fought that type of fighters since his current win streak)... I think pierson is just bad (not to discredit him), and old, and seems like he doesn't do any one thing too special. hect isn't a stud by any means, but I think he's a little fresher, younger, and more explosive than pierson, and probably does everyhting he does just a little better. Both have boxing background, but pierson doesn't seem to have stopping power where hect looks like he can do some damage if he lands clean... Both are wrestlers, but gotta go with American wrestling... Torn on this and I'll prob stay away as I like martinez, pyle, and papazian more as favorites...

But yea like pyle and hect and I'm curiosu what some of you think about these matches...?

[MMAbetMASTA]

If Faber gets near +200, I might play him for a bit. While Barao has a better chance of finishing Faber, he also leaves himself open much more than Cruz.

Agree 100%... I can't get the leone or escovedo fights out of my mind... Renan didn't look like the world beater in those (and even against scotty j I wasn't too impressed). He looked like the next big thing in other fights, and I agree he is a stud and deserves this fight, but faber has looked better as of late imo... Subbing bowles and mizugaki is no joke and imo 10x more than anythign barao has done as of late. Fought a damn close 5 rounds against cruz (sweating the shit outta that one as I had about 1100 on cruz in that!!).. And wineland fight was tough and impressed with faber's fight iq...Faber's speed is better than anyone renan has faced, and imo renan's speed and fluidityy both on the feet and in scrambles has given him an advantage over other opponents, an advantage he might not have here...

Stylistically this match def favors renan and I think he's the rightful fav and 'pick on paper', but man I can't not bet on a proven veteran, one with a very well rounded and fine tuned skill set, like an underdog in faber. The Cali kid gets to +175 or better I'm on it for sure.

[Beelzebubzy]

Pyle might not make weight

[GNI]

curious why everyone is so high on salas. means showed some great tdd his last fight.

[fosho14]

curious why everyone is so high on salas. means showed some great tdd his last fight.

^ this

[fosho14]

Fuckkk you and these lines!!! So jealous...


But yea like pyle and hect and I'm curiosu what some of you think about these matches...?

Well I can't comment on hecht/pierson because I haven't seen enough of those guys. In what I have seen neither have exhibited much talent, I guess if forced to pick the slight lean goes to hecht but I won't be playing the -165 line.

As far as the pyle fight, I actually can say that I have watched a lot of footage on both guys over the years and then recently watched more tape again for the purpose of capping their friday bout. Initially I was favoring pyle but after re-watching each of both of their last 5 fights, I am seriously questioning why most ppl are big on him. Both men have average striking and I def wouldn't say pyle has a definitive edge on the feet, I'd say it's close to even. (and yes, this is still taking into consideration the fact that pyle has faced tougher opposition). On the ground I will agree pyle has the edge (neers wrestling is weak) but neers jitz game is no joke and is very solid. In light of these observations I'd say a small play on neer by decsion at +500 is justified, or to stay away completely. However, if someone could provide a reasonable argument to justify the -190 line on pyle, I'm always open to opinions with the ability to influence me one way or the other. Please feel free to disagree with me ppl, I actually welcome it because it helps me be secure in my pick. Gabe, don't worry I don't ostracize ppl for politely disagreeing

This is just how I see things at the moment subject to change.

[fosho14]

O ya, something else I forgot to mention is neer is tough as nails and won't get stopped on the feet.

[NunyaBidness]

Pyle might not make weight

link?

[Educ8d Degener8]

Aw f*ck... I was just racking my brain the other day about the midget who took a fight in a weight class above his recently and held his own... Martinez!

[NunyaBidness]

Aw f*ck... I was just racking my brain the other day about the midget who took a fight in a weight class above his recently and held his own... Martinez!

Also, Gabe.

[gabe]

Also, Gabe.

lol this doesn't make sense but it made me laugh, i love you, nunsie.

[Vaughany]

curious why everyone is so high on salas. means showed some great tdd his last fight.

^ this

Great TDD against an opponent who had no idea how to set up his takedowns. Salas is a much better wrestler and more athletic than Magalhaes. I think this should be closer to Evens either way so will happily play Salas at +160.

[Vaughany]

Pyle might not make weight

Surely not with Dolce by his side?!

[Vaughany]

Fuckkk you and these lines!!! So jealous...

I agree with all the picks dude, had my eye on salas as well and couldn't believe he opened as a decent dog... Prob gonnna have similar plays, although I won't be going as heavy on papazian, assuming I even get a decent line on that match or a lot of these (yet I'm sure you'll have the opportunity to make a nice arb on that line)... GL meng, I have a feeling we gonna be in some nice money this weekend

Also liking pyle and hect, thoughts? think pyle is the exact type of fighter than always gives neer fits, except for the fact that he's probably the bigger than past opponents who can continuously ground neer and control him on the mat. Yet I'm worried that neer opens a cut or something, and I have seen pyle crumble when under pressure so it is a bit scary, but on paper and when comparing past opponents of neer this seems like pyle's win all day..(opponents who were much smaller and imo some with less skilled level of tds and grappling ability - I don't think neer has drastically improved his game since those fights either - he just hasn't fought that type of fighters since his current win streak)... I think pierson is just bad (not to discredit him), and old, and seems like he doesn't do any one thing too special. hect isn't a stud by any means, but I think he's a little fresher, younger, and more explosive than pierson, and probably does everyhting he does just a little better. Both have boxing background, but pierson doesn't seem to have stopping power where hect looks like he can do some damage if he lands clean... Both are wrestlers, but gotta go with American wrestling... Torn on this and I'll prob stay away as I like martinez, pyle, and papazian more as favorites...

But yea like pyle and hect and I'm curiosu what some of you think about these matches...?

yee in theory Pyle should be able to control him on route to a sub or more likely decision. I cant play him at those odds tho, Neer is more durable and will be able to take more punches/elbows then Pyle will. I dont think Neer's wrestling is as bad as some make out, in the past he has not defended the takedown because he is so comfortable off his back. Neer has a solid triangle which I think he thought he could lock on to anybody if he got taken down...perhaps submitting Danzig gave him the confidence to not worry if likes of Pellegrino took him down and unfortunetly tht confidence was a bit misguided as he was fighting black-belts with solid top control like Pellegrino & Tibau and ended up losing decisions. Nonetheless, if Pyle performs like he did against Hathaway then he should take this. Fact is that Pyle would also run through likes of Wisnewski and Ludwig, and would probably beat anybody else who Neer has beat in past, so I can't know anybody for playing Pyle. Only thing Im confident about in this fight is tht Neer probably wont get TKO'd or KO'd!

[Vaughany]

So Bisping injured as well now! Boetsch vs Lombard...amount of injuries is ridiculous

[Vaughany]

Was going to try get your opinion on McCall V, looks to me like great value. I think he was robbed last time, Johnson is fast and always a threat obv but I think McCall will fight a bit smarter and maybe employ some more wrestling, which should be where his biggest edge is. +130 @Pinnacle is money no?

Also Silva, What makes you hesitate? Brenneman is basically a lay and pray wrestler (he is quite good at it i'll admit) but even if he gets Silva down I think Silva's sub game is better than Brennemans defence, mainly i see Silva exploiting Charlies (lack of) striking.

I was thinking anything better than -200 on Silva was pretty good also.

Would appreciate any insight you had

Well, it's great value when u consider how close the last fight was, but not great value when u consider what odds McCall was at before tht fight when he was +300 range! I guess McCall is the smart play as I expect it will be another close fight and probably go the distance so makes sense to play the guy at + odds if it's a 50/50 fight. I also think McCall is more likely to get the finish out of the two, slightly more power in his punches. Problem is there is a good chance it goes the distance and a good chance that the judges give either a questionable decision win so I'm not to sure what I want to do with this fight