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Who gives a shit about that anymore. All that it does POSSIBLY affect the way the opener comes out. But they only let you fire air at the openers anyway, so even it comes out weak and all the little focks will POUND it and then the line will be corrected for cheap.
Believe me, I would love to just snap the necks of all posters on sbr so that the opener would remain untouched until they raised the limits. No point in actually trying to explain this or anything, you just can't convince "ballers" to leave that 20$ on the table.Comment -
Yeah I get what you mean but value is value right? I mean the fight should be priced up pretty even like you say, I'd even make McCall a very slight favourite as i agree with you about him being more likely to finish (even though i doubt either will).
The point about the decision going either way is very valid as we saw last time out, Only thing i would say in defense of a McCall pick is that I think he'll fight a little different this time.
If he does what i expect and uses his wrestling a bit more we should see him on top for a higher % of the time per round which should stick with the judges, unless Johnson owns him in some other way that is (knockdown, outpointing him etc).
Close fight though, thanks for the input mate.Comment -
This is a very stupid argument that I've debunked here before. But we can hit it from a different angle today.
While it would be optimal for large bettors for lines to remain stagnant until limits are raised, it makes no difference to small bettors to allow this. And since other bettors are going to come in and move the line to parity anyway, they would be sacrificing EV for no gain at all.
Because of this you can use game theory to show that the nash equilibrium for all actors regardless of bankroll size is to hit openers. If you do not, you are acting suboptimally, and losing value to both other actors and the books themselves.Comment -
Your argument is akin to saying, "I wish no one else would pick up the pennies on the ground, because I want to pick them all up and I'm not going to bend over until there's at least 5 of them"Comment -
This is true. But what argument am I trying to make? That people shouldn't bet openers? All I was saying is that people who bet openers are ******* over "large bettors" so why the fock are you concerned with talking about the line before it comes out because you are only focking over yourselves, not me, lol.Comment -
ha In before "Nunya showing his aspergers again" response by Smarterthanu or defacto!Comment -
ha wasnt quick enoughComment -
But it is not as simple as picking up a penny. What if I don't want to get off my ass and goto ** to transfer money to an illegal operation thereby commiting a federal crime so I can hit an opener for $100.
What if (for me) it is +EV to just mow my neighbours lawn for the 20$, lol.Comment -
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Don't have an argument for justifying pyle at -190, I agree its steep. Prob will stay away as a few people here are high on neer, but in the end I just think neer, while looking good in defeat, really hasn't beat anyone of note, everyone that is a top 10-20 guy he fights he loses to for the most part, epsecially guys with better wrestling and top control, aka pyle.Well I can't comment on hecht/pierson because I haven't seen enough of those guys. In what I have seen neither have exhibited much talent, I guess if forced to pick the slight lean goes to hecht but I won't be playing the -165 line.
As far as the pyle fight, I actually can say that I have watched a lot of footage on both guys over the years and then recently watched more tape again for the purpose of capping their friday bout. Initially I was favoring pyle but after re-watching each of both of their last 5 fights, I am seriously questioning why most ppl are big on him. Both men have average striking and I def wouldn't say pyle has a definitive edge on the feet, I'd say it's close to even. (and yes, this is still taking into consideration the fact that pyle has faced tougher opposition). On the ground I will agree pyle has the edge (neers wrestling is weak) but neers jitz game is no joke and is very solid. In light of these observations I'd say a small play on neer by decsion at +500 is justified, or to stay away completely. However, if someone could provide a reasonable argument to justify the -190 line on pyle, I'm always open to opinions with the ability to influence me one way or the other. Please feel free to disagree with me ppl, I actually welcome it because it helps me be secure in my pick. Gabe, don't worry I don't ostracize ppl for politely disagreeing
This is just how I see things at the moment subject to change.
And yea I don't know why I was intersted in hecht, I started looking more into it and I really can't break it down with confidence, therefore no way I would pay -160 on a fight I can't break down. GL and thanks for the feedback man.Comment -
I couldn't get ANYTHING down at sportsbook. Salas is a focking evens now. They focking flipped the line and are forcing me to go the other way.
Dude i can't blame you for doing your thing. And while Nunya is correct in saying that it is the right proposition for everyone to bet openers, because it's either that or nothing.
I'm just saying he books have set it up this way, and it is the most profitable model for them. And it will remain because like Nunya said if "we" don't bet the openers someone else will. Which is a vicious cycle.Comment -
Pyle is gonna be gassed out in rd 2.Comment -
Dont think anybody should go in cocky against somebody like Neer! But as I say, it might just be confidence...not something u can really gauge...its not like Pyle is saying "I'll run through Neer" or anything...jus seemed very relaxed and joking about a bit...my main point I guess is that I doubt he'd be like tht if his weight-cut was going badly!Comment -
Where has pyle gassed / dramatically slowed down before? I did some heavy research, both watching fights and reading play by plays on pyle, and nothing popped up in my head / nothing I saw or read would lead me to believe he has questionable cardio...
Was there info out there that this was an extremely tough weight cut for him, is that why you said that he'd come in overweight Beelzy???Comment -
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There were some rumors on Shhhhhherdog saying he's having trouble making weight. Take it for what you will.Comment -
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My post comes from the junkie article on neerComment -
Ring probably ass-raped the assailants!...
UFC 149's Nick Ring breaks up mugging, helps Calgary police apprehend attackers
by John Morgan on Jun 07, 2012 at 5:15 pm ET
UFC middleweight Nick Ring (12-1 MMA, 2-1 UFC) doesn't consider himself any type of vigilante, but he refuses to sit idly by and watch innocent people fall pray to thuggery.
And so it was on Wednesday night, when "The Promise" happened upon a pair of victims being beaten by an assailing group of 10 youngsters who Ring asserts "probably thought they were way tougher than they really are."
While Ring is busy preparing for a UFC 149 rematch with fellow "The Ultimate Fighter 11" cast member Court McGee, for him, the choice to get involved was a no-brainer.
"I was leaving Starbucks last night in Calgary, and I see a big group of, uh, I don't know what you want to call them – wannabe gangster guys – beating up a couple," Ring told MMAjunkie.com Radio (www.mmajunkie.com/radio). "It was a boyfriend-girlfriend. They were beating them up and robbing them, basically. It was 10 against two. It didn't look right. I pulled the car over and everything to see one of them kneeing a girl in the face. I'm not even joking. It was so hardcore, I can't even tell you.
"I get out of the car, and I yell, 'What's going here?' The girl takes off, rips this other girl's backpack away from her, and the whole group of them, the 10 of them, they run down the street. I went to check on the two, and they got their faces cut open, and they're bleeding everywhere. It was me and another stranger who just arrived on the scene."
Once Ring established that the victims weren't facing life-threatening injuries, he made a split-second decision, but one he said really didn't require much thought. Ring and the stranger took off after the assailants.
"We just looked at each other, and we said to each other, 'Let's go get them,'" Ring said. "We ran after them. We tackled one of them, and we called the police. The police came, and I got into another little foot chase with them as I was on the phone with the police."
Ring, who said the assailants appeared to be in their late teens, said the group stayed close by while waiting to learn the fate of the one member of the group who was tackled. That allowed Ring to direct police in their direction, as well as aid in a secondary chase, and seven of the 10 attackers were eventually nabbed.
"They need to be straightened out," Ring said. "This is not behavior that can be condoned. And you know what, turning a blind eye to it, and this goes for everyone in society, don't turn a blind eye to it. If you see something wrong, you go out there, and you straighten it out. The cops are there to help out, as well, but you've got to call them."
Of course, Ring is a highly-trained professional and knows that not everyone should take such a hands-on approach. Personal safety is paramount, but that doesn't mean potential witnesses can't at least make sure authorities are alerted.
For his part, Ring knew there was some risk in his choice, but he elected to involve himself at the highest level.
"It definitely did cross my mind that they might have weapons," Ring said. "But at the same time, I wasn't thinking about that. They had to be stopped. If they had weapons, I would have just stayed on the phone and kept enough distance to where I would have been safe.
"There was this poor guy, and he was trying to protect his girlfriend, and he's getting beat up by the dudes in the group. The girl from the antagonist side, she's beating up on the girlfriend, and she had the guy by the hair, kneeing her right in the face. I just felt so bad for the guy. He was helpless. He's watching his girlfriend get beat up, and he's getting beat up, himself. I wasn't going to stand around and watch that happen."
Ring said he has yet to learn the identities of the victims but hopes to check on them in the very near future. Officials confirmed with "The Calgary Sun" the two were not facing life-threatening injuries.
As for the assailants, Ring said they did not appear to recognize him as a UFC fighter. In fact, Ring said he even had to laugh a little when one of the attackers, who at the time was being restrained by the police, challenged him to a one-on-one confrontation.
"After they got nabbed by the cops, I went up to the group as they were getting arrested," Ring said. "'Yeah, these are the guys. Thanks, guys.' I started pointing them out to the cops.
"One of the guys said, '[Expletive] you,' to me. Then he said, 'Yeah, man. Me and you, one on one.' He said that to my face. I just told him, 'Anytime, you little bitch.'"
Ring was quick to point out he wasn't the only one involved in the apprehension process and praised those around him who also assisted. In the meantime, the Canadian fighter has vowed to assist police with anything they need in terms of witness testimony in order to fully prosecute the attackers.
"I'm very happy with the people that were on the scene," Ring said. "There were a lot of compassionate people. When they realized what was going on, all it took was that little push like, 'Yeah, let's go get them.' I had plenty of help from that point on.
"I'm glad they got arrested, and I hope they actually get some punishment for it."
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Out on a limb, please be nice Nunya =),
Except you're forgetting that nash's equilibrium assumes that all parties play or bet perfectly, meaning to deviate from it would cause you or others to lose EV.
Seeing as typically none of the above mentioned parties will be "playing" perfectly, nash is a sub optimal formula to use in this argument.Comment
