Vaughany's MMA Picks...

[Vaughany]

I would be quite hesitant playing a guy that usually loses fights. Then calling it a steal, i dont know. Matt wiman that crushes people had huge problems with danzig. the fight was so even im not even sure any of the two could be called a winner.

To think that a guy A did good against another opponent B he therefor may have a good shot against a fighter C is one of my many mistakes as a better. Lets take Paby abedi for for instance this weekend. He did good against thiago alves, actually very good in the opening minutes and because of this he may have ended up as a 2 to 1 favourite over james head. Did he put on the same offence against james head as he did against thiago alves.....nope!! I think volkmann went inn with a mentality that said..i will easily beat escudero, while escudero came inn, and gave it all. Danzig is also more technical both standing and on the ground, even tho escuderos wrestling pedigree may be better. wouldnt bet on escudero. stick to the bet that is easy to predict. jones will sin, shaub will probably win etc... stop making idiotic bets like this. no point.

yeah, on paper Escudero may seem a good play as underdog as he undoubtedly has a wrestling edge, and he did win tht last round against Volkmann. Danzig also blows hot and cold, tho more recently he's been more consistant. He showed against Stevenson and Wiman that he has decent counter striking...he lit Wiman up quite a bit but Wiman has Jesus Almighty behind him and was able to take a lot of shots and power through.

[Vaughany]

UFC 145 play:


8.474 units on Njokuani at -135 to win 6.277 units.


Will post my thoughts on this fight tomorrow.

My rambling thoughts on this one:


Njokuani advantages: Experience against better competition...although he has lost to most of these, the fact is he has faced a solid combination of solid strikers and grapplers...likes of Cerrone, Barboza, Roller, Palaszewski, Castillo.

Makdessi hasn't faced a legit striker yet. Audinwood was completely outclassed, and Kyle Watson is a very average fighter who's main strength is BJJ. I have no doubt tht Njokuani would also tear through those two with ease.

I'm sure the Njokuani/Jewtuszko fight will be in the back of some people's minds, in that fight Njokuani got caught by a spinning elbow...the kind of flashy move that Makdessi likes to do. However, I think it was pretty clear that Njokuani underestimated Jewtuszko and thought that he'd be able to handle him standing with ease. Since that fight and more since the Barboza fight Njo has realised that he needs to tighten up his defence so that it is at the same level as his offence. As he said after the Winner fight....

"I have a newborn son (Kai) now and it's really opened up my eyes and made me focus harder. I go in the gym every day and try to watch tape and improve on what I've done wrong in other fights. I'm trying to do the little things well. I keep my hands up, I move my head more. I think that showed tonight,"

And what he said was true, it was clearly obvious in the Winner fight how Njokuani has better defence now and doesnt keep his hands as low like he did in his WEC and World Combat League days, and also has better head movement. This improved awareness and implementation of defence along with his obvious height/reach advantages over Makdessi cant help but make me think that Makdessi is going to have a frustrating time connecting with Njokuani. With regards to Andre Winner, he is a decent boxer with fast hands but showed he's very one dimensional and a slow starter. He doesnt throw many kicks and tht made it easy for Njokuani to pick him apart. Makdessi on the other hand will throw a range of kicks, however with his height and Njokuani's length it's going to be difficult for him to connect.

This might be the first fight for a long time where Njokuani has the edge in grappling! He's been working a lot on his BJJ with Sergio Penha (red and black belt BJJ). He's also mentioned in a couple of interviews/blogs that he may well look to take this to the ground and that he'd like to get Submission of the Night for a change. It seems that he was frustrated by the Castillo decision and realises that a take-down seems to score a lot more than a combination of punches do. He's also spent some time training with the Team Alpha Male guys who are in Vegas for TUF (Faber, Lance Palmer, Dillashaw, and even Castillo I believe), so dont be surprised if he does attempt more take-downs than usual. Njokuani did actually attempt and get a takedown or 2 against Barboza, and also took Fallaotoloto down with a beautiful throw in the second round so it's not even like he has never looked for take-downs in the past. He also has some solid GnP which he doesnt look to use enough...his long limbs and straight punching technique means that he can stand out of the opponents guard and unleash powerful strikes.

Njokuani has dangerous knees (his favourite technique) and I'd like to see him look to clinch with Makdessi at times and either use his knees or look for trip takedowns. With the 3/4 inch height advnatage there is a good chance that he can connect with knees to Makdessi's chin.

One thing to consider is that one of Njokuani's best buddies from back home in Texas died in a motorbike accident at beginning of April. You'll see that his banner for the fight will state "In loving memory of Sam Nguyen". He'll be going in to this very emotionally charged....hard to say whether that is a good thing or bad thing. It could lead to him being reckless, or could make him even more focussed to get the win and an "unstoppable force". Njokuani didnt go back to Texas for his friend's funeral last week and instead stayed in Vegas to concentrate on training for the fight so I think he's taking it very seriously and wants to win the fight as a dedication to his buddy.

[bjpenn85]

last 10 minuts of a football match, the losing team almost always pressure the leading team. Likewise a fighter that is down 2 rounds, very often end up winning the last, because he just simply has to win that round, while the other fighter feel he needs to defend the victory.

[sirchadwick1]

Griggs at +250, Belcher at +265, and Brown at +300!

I understand why these guys are the dogs... but I don't think it should be that far off.
Loving these odds! I'll keep playing Griggs as a dog b/c he's a tough sob that keeps winning.

Also big on Hendricks and Njokuani. Can't wait for this weekend!

[Vaughany]

Griggs at +250, Belcher at +265, and Brown at +300!

I understand why these guys are the dogs... but I don't think it should be that far off.
Loving these odds! I'll keep playing Griggs as a dog b/c he's a tough sob that keeps winning.

Also big on Hendricks and Njokuani. Can't wait for this weekend!

Yeah, I'll be thinking of Griggs if the odds keep improving. Browne has the whole Dom Cruz movement style going on now which is great, but means that he keeps his hands down a lot and also uses up a lot more energy due to the constant movement. Obviously Browne is far superior athletically (which should carry him through) and he does have power, but Griggs may well have enough heart to hang in there and make it interesting.

[Beelzebubzy]

1u on Belcher at +255

Paul Harris has gassed in the past and is always carrying the extra muscle mass. Belcher has stated in the Press Conference that his is bringing in a whos who to train for leg locks.

What I do not understand is why do people not follow Nate's gameplan. 'Sweat' alot so you are greased up.

[Vaughany]

Ha yeah, greasing your legs is a must with Palhares

[Vaughany]

My rambling thoughts on this one:


Njokuani advantages: Experience against better competition...although he has lost to most of these, the fact is he has faced a solid combination of solid strikers and grapplers...likes of Cerrone, Barboza, Roller, Palaszewski, Castillo.

Makdessi hasn't faced a legit striker yet. Audinwood was completely outclassed, and Kyle Watson is a very average fighter who's main strength is BJJ. I have no doubt tht Njokuani would also tear through those two with ease.

I'm sure the Njokuani/Jewtuszko fight will be in the back of some people's minds, in that fight Njokuani got caught by a spinning elbow...the kind of flashy move that Makdessi likes to do. However, I think it was pretty clear that Njokuani underestimated Jewtuszko and thought that he'd be able to handle him standing with ease. Since that fight and more since the Barboza fight Njo has realised that he needs to tighten up his defence so that it is at the same level as his offence. As he said after the Winner fight....

"I have a newborn son (Kai) now and it's really opened up my eyes and made me focus harder. I go in the gym every day and try to watch tape and improve on what I've done wrong in other fights. I'm trying to do the little things well. I keep my hands up, I move my head more. I think that showed tonight,"

And what he said was true, it was clearly obvious in the Winner fight how Njokuani has better defence now and doesnt keep his hands as low like he did in his WEC and World Combat League days, and also has better head movement. This improved awareness and implementation of defence along with his obvious height/reach advantages over Makdessi cant help but make me think that Makdessi is going to have a frustrating time connecting with Njokuani. With regards to Andre Winner, he is a decent boxer with fast hands but showed he's very one dimensional and a slow starter. He doesnt throw many kicks and tht made it easy for Njokuani to pick him apart. Makdessi on the other hand will throw a range of kicks, however with his height and Njokuani's length it's going to be difficult for him to connect.

This might be the first fight for a long time where Njokuani has the edge in grappling! He's been working a lot on his BJJ with Sergio Penha (red and black belt BJJ). He's also mentioned in a couple of interviews/blogs that he may well look to take this to the ground and that he'd like to get Submission of the Night for a change. It seems that he was frustrated by the Castillo decision and realises that a take-down seems to score a lot more than a combination of punches do. He's also spent some time training with the Team Alpha Male guys who are in Vegas for TUF (Faber, Lance Palmer, Dillashaw, and even Castillo I believe), so dont be surprised if he does attempt more take-downs than usual. Njokuani did actually attempt and get a takedown or 2 against Barboza, and also took Fallaotoloto down with a beautiful throw in the second round so it's not even like he has never looked for take-downs in the past. He also has some solid GnP which he doesnt look to use enough...his long limbs and straight punching technique means that he can stand out of the opponents guard and unleash powerful strikes.

Njokuani has dangerous knees (his favourite technique) and I'd like to see him look to clinch with Makdessi at times and either use his knees or look for trip takedowns. With the 3/4 inch height advnatage there is a good chance that he can connect with knees to Makdessi's chin.

One thing to consider is that one of Njokuani's best buddies from back home in Texas died in a motorbike accident at beginning of April. You'll see that his banner for the fight will state "In loving memory of Sam Nguyen". He'll be going in to this very emotionally charged....hard to say whether that is a good thing or bad thing. It could lead to him being reckless, or could make him even more focussed to get the win and an "unstoppable force". Njokuani didnt go back to Texas for his friend's funeral last week and instead stayed in Vegas to concentrate on training for the fight so I think he's taking it very seriously and wants to win the fight as a dedication to his buddy.

Adding:


Parlay (double): 10 units on Njokuani (-175), & Barry (-200) to win 13.571 units.


Going to put Barry straight-up in a few parlays as only way he loses to Lavar is by TKO/KO IMO so will have option of hedging with that if previous legs are successful.

[Beelzebubzy]

Adding:


Parlay (double): 10 units on Njokuani (-175), & Barry (-200) to win 13.571 units.


Going to put Barry straight-up in a few parlays as only way he loses to Lavar is by TKO/KO IMO so will have option of hedging with that if previous legs are successful.

Tailing. 1u to win 1.22u I have both small straight up. I did not get the great opener on Njoukani. I think the size advantage will be huge here. Plus Makdessi could easily make 145.
Barry should be able to leg kick his way to a decision. I think he will find his range rather quickly without having to worry too much about a takedown threat

[Wanna Bet On It?]

Ha yeah, greasing your legs is a must with Palhares

Still remember almost punching a hole in the wall for Paul Harris' coffee break during the Marquardt fight when he thought Nate greased.

Paul Harris takea down. Paul Harris graba legg. Paul Harris no breaky. Paul Harris no understand.

I'll never bet heavy on a guy who's as weak mentally as that man. Fool me once...

[Vaughany]

Still remember almost punching a hole in the wall for Paul Harris' coffee break during the Marquardt fight when he thought Nate greased.

Paul Harris takea down. Paul Harris graba legg. Paul Harris no breaky. Paul Harris no understand.

I'll never bet heavy on a guy who's as weak mentally as that man. Fool me once...

yeah was annoying as hell!

[Rubber Guard]

1u on Belcher at +255

Paul Harris has gassed in the past and is always carrying the extra muscle mass. Belcher has stated in the Press Conference that his is bringing in a whos who to train for leg locks.

What I do not understand is why do people not follow Nate's gameplan. 'Sweat' alot so you are greased up.

Unfortunately I think a lot of guys do grease if they know getting subb'd is very possible. Not the blatant GSP grease. But with a leglock guy, why wouldn't you shave your legs that day and lotion them up a bunch and then take a shower? Add in some sweat and no one is hanging onto a leg.

It sort of sucks, but I think a lot of fighters do many things to prevent subs. That is why I never understand a guy with big frizzy hair or a big beard? Has to make hanging onto a choke a lot easier for their opponents.

I think Palhares can sub anyone in the world. I also think he has very solid wrestling. I in no way think he should be -350. I was honestly thinking Palhares might be -170 to -190. But -350 is nuts. Belcher is a good fighter and has a pretty well-rounded game. I don't think Palhares' cardio will matter. If he doesn't win in the first 2 round he probably isn't winning. I don't see him winning a decision. If he gets you down he knows how to finish. I don't see him wrestling Belcher for 3 rounds and Belcher staying out of everything.

That said I still have Palhares 1st or 2nd round sub.

[Vaughany]

Adding:



Parlay: 6.238 units on Hawn (-210), & Struve (-115) to win 10.978 units;


Parlay: 6.24 units on Hawn (-210), Not Mills by Submission (-5360), & Jones/Evans Starts Round 2 (-300) to win 6.271 units.

[Beelzebubzy]

Adding:



Parlay: 6.238 units on Hawn (-210), & Struve (-115) to win 10.978 units;

First off, thank you for picking Hawn. You moved the line and I can arb out soon.
but, what the hell is this struve parlay nonsense. Stop fading hunt already

[Vaughany]

First off, thank you for picking Hawn. You moved the line and I can arb out soon.
but, what the hell is this struve parlay nonsense. Stop fading hunt already

ha Hunt will only win this by TKO/KO if he does win. If it goes distance Struve will probably take it because he'll of landed more strikes at distance (especially leg kicks), and he'll have the superior cardio. IMO Struve can win by sub or decision while Hunt most likely can only win by TKO/KO so I'll happily put Struve in a few parlays (as I'll do with Barry) and have the option of hedging with Hunt by TKO/KO or Hunt in Round 1 if the parlays are still going strong come fight time.

[Beelzebubzy]

I agree with your logic from a betting perspective. I like Hunt in the matchup. Struves lack of head movement, plus his lack of using the range ala Kendall Grove, plus Hunts Ko power, plus Struve's chin = Bubzy liking Hunt.

Just my perspective. Odds say coinflip. V says Struve. So Struve wins.

[Vaughany]

I agree with your logic from a betting perspective. I like Hunt in the matchup. Struves lack of head movement, plus his lack of using the range ala Kendall Grove, plus Hunts Ko power, plus Struve's chin = Bubzy liking Hunt.

Just my perspective. Odds say coinflip. V says Struve. So Struve wins.

Yep, I'm not saying I think Struve necessarily wins the fight, just saying that he has more ways to win than Hunt. I've faded Struve in most of his previous fights, in fact I don't think I've ever bet on him to win before. Hunt has a great chance of TKO'ing or knocking him out, probably more chance than Struve does of getting the sub or a decision (and obviously a lot more than Struve does of getting a TKO or Hunt getting a sub) because the fight does start standing after-all and Struve doesn't exactly have amazing take-downs. I believe all his sub wins have come from being knocked down to the mat or from being taken down (maybe bar Barry were he kind of pulled-guard I think).

[The Fobfather]

Just looking at bestfightodds but did hawn really open as a dog on 5dimes or is that a mistake?

[Vaughany]

Just looking at bestfightodds but did hawn really open as a dog on 5dimes or is that a mistake?

Was one of their standard retarded errors

[BIGDAY]

Adding:



Jones/Evans Starts Round 2 (-300)

100% like these two to make it to round 2. First round will be a sparring session imo.

[Vaughany]

100% like these two to make it to round 2. First round will be a sparring session imo.

Yeah...feeling out process for sure me thinks

[PunisherIND]

Yeah...feeling out process for sure me thinks

i agree, but its interesting that the money is going the other way. -270 now.

[BIGDAY]

These lines always move a ton in both directions sometimes. Will keep an eye for sure.

[Vaughany]

I think it's because the Jones in Round 1 got some action...went from +250 to +225

[Grabaka]

600 on Macdonald @ -400
100 on McDonald @ +100
90 on Brown @ +300
87.5 on Njokuani @ -175

80 on Mcdonald by Dec @ +224
40 on Schaub by Dec @ +292

50 on Njokuani + Brimage
50 on Njokuani + Wisniewski
50 on Njokuani + Cormier
32 on Nakamura + Mcdonald
16 on Mcdonald Dec + Bahktik/Cermeño GTD
10 on Mcdonald Dec + Barry ITD
10 on Shockley + Curran ITD + Sakara vs Stann ITD + Jones ITD
10 on Curran ITD + Sakara vs Stann ITD + Jones ITD
30 on Curran vs Warren ITD + Sakara vs Stann ITD + Jones ITD
10 on Dillashaw + Brookins + Evans

[Vaughany]

600 on Macdonald @ -400
100 on McDonald @ +100
90 on Brown @ +300
87.5 on Njokuani @ -175

80 on Mcdonald by Dec @ +224
40 on Schaub by Dec @ +292

50 on Njokuani + Brimage
50 on Njokuani + Wisniewski
50 on Njokuani + Cormier
32 on Nakamura + Mcdonald
16 on Mcdonald Dec + Bahktik/Cermeño GTD
10 on Mcdonald Dec + Barry ITD
10 on Shockley + Curran ITD + Sakara vs Stann ITD + Jones ITD
10 on Curran ITD + Sakara vs Stann ITD + Jones ITD
30 on Curran vs Warren ITD + Sakara vs Stann ITD + Jones ITD
10 on Dillashaw + Brookins + Evans

Nice one getting Immortal at +300. Im hoping it goes back up to tht by fight night

[Grabaka]

TY. I hope so too. Unfortunately im already limited on 5dimes....i would have done 150-200. We'll see if Thompson is the real deal or not.

[Thor4140]

I won a lot of coin on Palhares and every dime was hard earned. I remember laying 3 to 1 against Jeremy Horn and Palhares grabbing the fence like it was legal. Wouldn't stop even after about 50 warnings. I thought for sure i was gonna lose that one with this knucklehead. Then the fence jump, the Marquart saga. (luckily i passed on that one) He is one brain freeze from losing any bout. I can't do it anymore. Im missing a few of his other fuk ups. Oh i had the one where Thomasz Drwal i believe, was screaming for him to let go of the leg lock. If he held on the hold another second i think we would have saw guys from the back come charging into the ring like in the WWE

[getlucky2win]

what lines do yall think will move alot on the fox card. last fox show there was alot of movement. hopin to get some risk free plays on barry hendricks and diaz

[Vaughany]

Added:


6.23 units on Brown/Thompson to Go the Distance at +220 to win 13.706 units.


May still play Brown straight-up as well if his odds improve again.

[Vaughany]

Interview with Schaub... I think the dude get's a lot of undeserved heat...pretty funny guy actually!...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_PJLVGcndXY&feature=relmfu

[Sano]

Interview with Schaub... I think the dude get's a lot of undeserved heat...pretty funny guy actually!...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_PJLVGcndXY&feature=relmfu

What a cool interview. Seeing Schaub in a different light. Gives me confidence on the pick.

[Vaughany]

Pending plays for Bellator 66 and UFC 145:


Parlay: 6.238 units on Hawn (-210), & Struve (-115) to win 10.978 units;


Parlay: 6.24 units on Hawn (-210), Not Mills by Submission (-5360), & Jones/Evans Starts Round 2 (-300) to win 6.271 units


8.474 units on Njokuani at -135 to win 6.277 units.


Parlay (double): 10 units on Njokuani (-175), & Barry (-200) to win 13.571 units.


6.23 units on Brown/Thompson to Go the Distance at +220 to win 13.706 units.


15.633 units on Schaub at -250 to win 6.253 units;


Parlay: 6.373 units on Miocic (-440), Simpson/Markes Starts Round 2 (-765), Ellenberger/Sanchez Starts Round 2 (-410), Not Bader Inside the Distance (-905), Schaub (-260), Rory MacDonald (-380), & JDS/Overeem to Not Go the Distance (-600) to win 18.554 units;


Parlay: 6.371 units Simpson/Markes Starts Round 2 (-593), Not Bader Inside the Distance (-905), Rory MacDonald (-380), & JDS/Overeem to Not Go the Distance (-900) to win 5.814 units;


1.578 units on Udinese Advances (-182), AC Milan 1st Halft PK (-167), Miocic (-440), Not Bader Inside the Distance (-905), Rory MacDonald (-380), & JDS/Overeem to Not Go the Distance (-600) to win 6.275 units;


5.625 units on Ellenberger (-250), Jones (-400), & Anderson Silva (-225) to win 8.594 units;


5.625 units on Sonnen (-225), & Jones (-400) to win 4.531 units;


2.273 units on Ben Henderson (+110), & Jones (-400) to win 3.694 units;


3.157 units on Noons/Thomson to Go the Distance (-185), Jones Inside the Distance (-172), & JDS/Overeem to Not Go the Distance (-750) to win 5.56 units;


Parlay (double): 15.977 units on Maiquel Falcao (-345), & Jones/Evans to Not Go the Distance (-295) to win 11.617 units;


Parlay (double): 50 units on Saunders (-275), & Rory MacDonald (-400) to win 35.327 units;


6.242 units on Hominick by Decision at +242 to win 15.106 units;

7.5 units on Hominick Inside the Distance at -150 to win 5 units;


5.625 units on Ellenberger (-250), Jones (-400), & Anderson Silva (-225) to win 8.594 units;


2.273 units on Ben Henderson (+110), & Jones (-400) to win 3.694 units;


5.625 units on Jones (-400), & Anderson Silva (-225) to win 4.531 units;


1.523 units on Jones/Evans to End by TKO/KO at -120 to win 1.269 units;


5.625 units on Rory MacDonald (-400), & Anderson Silva (-225) to win 4.531 units;


3 units on Rory MacDonald by Submission at +250 to win 7.5 units;

1.905 units on Rory MacDonald by Submission at +210 to win 4.001 units;

0.515 units on Rory MacDonald by Submission at +225 to win 1.288 units;

0.576 units on MacDonald/Mills to End by Submission at +220 to win 1.267 units;


3.297 units on Wisniewski at +187.5 to win 6.182 units.

[Vaughany]

Have also bet on Evans by TKO/KO and Mills by TKO/KO as hedges, will add them later when I've checked how much I need to add on these.

[Beelzebubzy]

6.242 units on Hominick by Decision at +242 to win 15.106 units;

7.5 units on Hominick Inside the Distance at -150 to win 5 units;


Really like this play.
Hominick is as dangerous on the ground as his striking is. I do not think Hominick has one shot power to finish Yagin, but I would not be suprised if can land a culimination of punches.