Vaughany's MMA Picks...

**Beelzebubzy** · 04-17-12, 09:08 AM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Was hoping the Franklin wouldnt be so chalky

I was kind of suprised it was this big. I thought it would be Franklin -180 -220 at worst

**Rubber Guard** · 04-17-12, 09:22 AM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Yeah both Forrest and Tito are fighting for a paycheck now...Forrest should be clear favourite but probably not this steep, I was expecting -200 to -230 range.

I really don't even see that being the case. They were both -115 last time they fought. And it was a split decision. Tito has looked better than he did then. And Forrest has looked pretty bad for what he used to look at that time.

I think Tito is fighting for more than a check. He loves the attention. And it is his announced final bout. So I would think he will be as ready as he can be to get 1 win and go off with a cheer. He asked for this fight before he even fought Lil Nog. He said he had 1 more fight on his contract and he would like him and Forrest to settle it. So he has been looking forward to this fight for a while.

**Vaughany** · 04-17-12, 09:26 AM

Originally posted by Rubber Guard

I really don't even see that being the case. They were both -115 last time they fought. And it was a split decision. Tito has looked better than he did then. And Forrest has looked pretty bad for what he used to look at that time.

I think Tito is fighting for more than a check. He loves the attention. And it is his announced final bout. So I would think he will be as ready as he can be to get 1 win and go off with a cheer. He asked for this fight before he even fought Lil Nog. He said he had 1 more fight on his contract and he would like him and Forrest to settle it. So he has been looking forward to this fight for a while.

You may well be right, Tito is probably more motivated for this than Forrest is

**the josh** · 04-17-12, 03:24 PM

props out. see any value V?

i covered evans KO/decision and mills KO. so im profitable in those 2 fights either way. More profitable of course if jones or rory wins.

**Vaughany** · 04-17-12, 03:32 PM

Yeah I maxed Evans by TKO/KO at +1150....down to +700 now

**the josh** · 04-17-12, 03:38 PM

yea luckily i got that too. it really moved a lot, expected though.

**getlucky2win** · 04-17-12, 04:10 PM

i dont c how evans gets ko. i c jones keeping distance and controlling the clinch. how do yall c the ko happening? gnp or catch him standing. i only c evans winning by his wrestling. the last thing i can c happenin is evans by ko. please enlighten me to ur thought process of why you like this bet.

**the josh** · 04-17-12, 04:22 PM

lyoto caught jones a few times. and rashad wants to put on a lot of pressure. its betting on the chance of it happening, not betting on being convinced its gonna happen.

**Vaughany** · 04-17-12, 04:27 PM

Originally posted by getlucky2win

i dont c how evans gets ko. i c jones keeping distance and controlling the clinch. how do yall c the ko happening? gnp or catch him standing. i only c evans winning by his wrestling. the last thing i can c happenin is evans by ko. please enlighten me to ur thought process of why you like this bet.

Value - I got it at +1150, it's now at +700. Machida tagged him standing, I'd say there is at least an 8% chance (+1150) that Rashad can do the same and perhaps even drop Jones/ or can take him down and hurt him with GnP and get a stoppage. The chances of this are very slim but not 8% slim IMO

**Vaughany** · 04-17-12, 04:28 PM

Originally posted by the josh

yea luckily i got that too. it really moved a lot, expected though.

yeah, it's +600 to +750 range on Euro sites like Paddypower so knew it wouldnt stay at those odds for long

**Vaughany** · 04-17-12, 04:31 PM

The Outlaw is back!...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R8NryNFiy6I&feature=youtube_gdata_player

**DeFactoCrippler** · 04-17-12, 04:34 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Yeah I maxed Evans by TKO/KO at +1150....down to +700 now

How much did they let you get down on that?

**getlucky2win** · 04-17-12, 04:35 PM

yup there is always a chance of a ko with evans as well as most hw and lhw. i just like evans by dec more bc i think shad is goin 2 try 2 avoid standing and be relentless with his takedown attempts. still see jones destroyin him. only chance for evans is a lucky ko or use his wrestlin 4 a lnp dec win

**Vaughany** · 04-17-12, 04:37 PM

Originally posted by DeFactoCrippler

How much did they let you get down on that?

$100

**Vaughany** · 04-17-12, 04:42 PM

Originally posted by getlucky2win

yup there is always a chance of a ko with evans as well as most hw and lhw. i just like evans by dec more bc i think shad is goin 2 try 2 avoid standing and be relentless with his takedown attempts. still see jones destroyin him. only chance for evans is a lucky ko or use his wrestlin 4 a lnp dec win

I cant see him spending enough time on top to get a decision. If the fight does manage to go distance I can only imagine that Jones has scored more points standing by throwing more flashy shiit and landing more leg kicks by using his range, and on the ground I think Rashad will struggle to hold Jones down if he wants to go the positional route or LnP as you put it. Should bare in mind that Rashad is a small LHW - Jones will be considerably bigger. Obviously we haven't seen Jones on his back, so it would be amiss of me to say that he will immediately bounce back up if he is taken down. But still, with how athletic he is and his size I find it hard to imagine that he wont be able to reverse or scramble back to his feet, or get his back to the cage and wall-walk like most guys who Evans has taken down have managed to do (Ortiz and Bisping particularly).

**Vaughany** · 04-17-12, 04:50 PM

Lots of new odds released on Sportsbook...

Njokuani -150 (will probably get action)

Danzig -140 (will probably get action)

Matt Brown +175 (should improve)

Travis Browne -155 (will get action)

Clements -225 (steep, Wisniewski is a vet with better ground game)

Palhares -340 (expected)

Bermudez -220 (was hoping to get better)

Ellenberger -175 (expected)

Pyle -160 (Neer at +130 might be worth a play but will probably improve slightly)

Erick Silva -200 (No point playing The Spaniard at +160 straight-up...might as well play decision at +220 or better).

**The Fobfather** · 04-17-12, 04:56 PM

Does anybody here use Sportsbook? How has your experience been with them? I saw that they didn't have the best rating.

**the josh** · 04-17-12, 04:57 PM

they cashed me out. but it was only like 300. dont **** with unreliable books

**Vaughany** · 04-17-12, 05:00 PM

Originally posted by The Fobfather

Does anybody here use Sportsbook? How has your experience been with them? I saw that they didn't have the best rating.

Dont have an account with them....annoying when they release lines

**Vaughany** · 04-17-12, 05:29 PM

UFC 145 play:

8.474 units on Njokuani at -135 to win 6.277 units.

Will post my thoughts on this fight tomorrow.

**MMAbetMASTA** · 04-17-12, 05:45 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

UFC 145 play:

8.474 units on Njokuani at -135 to win 6.277 units.

Will post my thoughts on this fight tomorrow.

I hope I get similar odds when this fight opens on my book... Looked at this match up long and hard since it was made and this is all anthony. Glad to see you on njukuoni too

**Hannibal** · 04-17-12, 05:46 PM

been waiting for the njokuani line too!
fkn bestfightodds alerts never work
lucky i caught it at what it is now
njok should be a huge fav...
expert MT + long limbs > high level TKD with short limbs

**PunisherIND** · 04-17-12, 06:38 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Lots of new odds released on Sportsbook...

Njokuani -150 (will probably get action)

Danzig -140 (will probably get action)

Matt Brown +175 (should improve)

Travis Browne -155 (will get action)

Clements -225 (steep, Wisniewski is a vet with better ground game)

Palhares -340 (expected)

Bermudez -220 (was hoping to get better)

Ellenberger -175 (expected)

Pyle -160 (Neer at +130 might be worth a play but will probably improve slightly)

Erick Silva -200 (No point playing The Spaniard at +160 straight-up...might as well play decision at +220 or better).

mannn, im pissed these lines were released during my commute. most of the lines have moved heavily as you predicted. except matt brown is getting faded hard. im so annoyed, but thanks for the heads up as usual V.

i'm liking the number on belcher.

**more_betterness** · 04-17-12, 07:30 PM

Originally posted by PunisherIND

mannn, im pissed these lines were released during my commute. most of the lines have moved heavily as you predicted. except matt brown is getting faded hard. im so annoyed, but thanks for the heads up as usual V.

i'm liking the number on belcher.

I had just gotten out to a site for work when the alert came in... Of course my phone was in the car. Would have pounded Browne and Njokuani. Might put a unit or two on the immortal if it gets in the much better than the +300 its at right now.

**PunisherIND** · 04-17-12, 07:56 PM

actually, i misread you. you did call the matt brown line correctly also.

**The Fobfather** · 04-17-12, 08:12 PM

Wonderboy Hypetrain is in full effect. -400!

**Rubber Guard** · 04-17-12, 08:13 PM

HUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUGE Palhares fan.

And I am baffled at the -340 Palhares line. Really confused. I was thinking it would be close to a pick em.

???????????????????????

**Beelzebubzy** · 04-17-12, 09:26 PM

Originally posted by more_betterness

I had just gotten out to a site for work when the alert came in... Of course my phone was in the car. Would have pounded Browne and Njokuani. Might put a unit or two on the immortal if it gets in the much better than the +300 its at right now.

same exact thing happened to me

**MMAbetMASTA** · 04-17-12, 09:58 PM

Originally posted by MMAbetMASTA

I hope I get similar odds when this fight opens on my book... Looked at this match up long and hard since it was made and this is all anthony. Glad to see you on njukuoni too

Ask and I shall receive, unfortunately... lol already averaging -200 on best fight odds... Prob be even higher by the time it reaches my book!

That was a ridiculous swing in a short amount of time...

**the josh** · 04-17-12, 10:03 PM

all the good lines moved too much

...

**NunyaBidness** · 04-18-12, 12:23 AM

Originally posted by The Fobfather

Does anybody here use Sportsbook? How has your experience been with them? I saw that they didn't have the best rating.

I've had an account with them for 6 years or so. Never had a problem with them, I've made 50 or so 4 figure cashouts without problem. Recently they've given me a DC, I get payouts in days now instead of weeks. Unfortunately, they've limited me to $10 bets on MMA/boxing.

**volkmannthad** · 04-18-12, 12:25 AM

Efrain Escudero at +150 is a steal. I favor him 55/45 over Danzig. Superior wrestler and training with all the right people+did better than I expected against my cash cow, Volkmann. If he gets Danzig in a choke he got Volkmann in, danzig's tapping. Otherwise I think he wins 2/3 rounds.

**bjpenn85** · 04-18-12, 01:38 AM

I would be quite hesitant playing a guy that usually loses fights. Then calling it a steal, i dont know. Matt wiman that crushes people had huge problems with danzig. the fight was so even im not even sure any of the two could be called a winner.

To think that a guy A did good against another opponent B he therefor may have a good shot against a fighter C is one of my many mistakes as a better. Lets take Paby abedi for for instance this weekend. He did good against thiago alves, actually very good in the opening minutes and because of this he may have ended up as a 2 to 1 favourite over james head. Did he put on the same offence against james head as he did against thiago alves.....nope!! I think volkmann went inn with a mentality that said..i will easily beat escudero, while escudero came inn, and gave it all. Danzig is also more technical both standing and on the ground, even tho escuderos wrestling pedigree may be better. wouldnt bet on escudero. stick to the bet that is easy to predict. jones will sin, shaub will probably win etc... stop making idiotic bets like this. no point.

**Vaughany** · 04-18-12, 01:57 AM

Originally posted by PunisherIND

mannn, im pissed these lines were released during my commute. most of the lines have moved heavily as you predicted. except matt brown is getting faded hard. im so annoyed, but thanks for the heads up as usual V.

i'm liking the number on belcher.

yeah, that's what I meant when I said Brown should improve, didnt word it very well but meant the line will get improve if u like Brown in this one.... fully expected Wonderboy to get plenty of action after tht Stittgen KO, the GSP hype, and people's love of fading Brown vs whoever. I'll be playing Brown at +250 or better probably

**Vaughany** · 04-18-12, 01:59 AM

Originally posted by PunisherIND

actually, i misread you. you did call the matt brown line correctly also.

ha Ahh it did make sense (didnt see this before my post above)!