"This is a spot where the market feels too tilted. Taylor already owns two victories over Serrano, and now she’s the underdog for the trilogy? That’s tough to pass up. I find the age curve doesn’t hit as hard in women’s combat sports, and it’s not like Serrano is exactly wallowing in the fountain of youth at 36, just three years younger than Taylor at 39.
The history is also hard to ignore: over 861 combined punches in 20 rounds, zero knockdowns, and Taylor’s ring IQ and footwork have consistently made the difference. With her ability to slip out of pressure, manage distance, and edge tight scorecards, grabbing Taylor on the moneyline at plus-money as part of our Taylor vs. Serrano best bets is the sharp play here. I’ll take that all day.
It also comes down to styles. Serrano is the more relentless power puncher, but her volume hasn’t been enough to break Taylor’s composure or overwhelm her defense in two tries. Taylor’s counterpunching still looks razor-sharp, and if she keeps circling and frustrating Serrano early, it’s easy to see the judges rewarding her cleaner work."