UFC 236: Holloway vs. Poirier 2 (April 13, 2019)

[PaperTrail07]

You go off who you think will win? I always stayed away from any 1.5 O/U (lie turner Farv).....some women's fight would take their strike total so high it would outpoint my guy who won in the 1st....

I'm doing a Draftkings lineup for this event..

Holloway
Adesanya
St Preux
Millender
Turner
Taha

[Teem]

I'm w him......we lose-----we lose LOL...

Thing is, is Holloway we know will come out to fight. And by that I mean he will be well-prepared, loves what he does, and he's a f'n warrior. That you can count on and I love betting on fighters that will never quit in that cage because it's exciting to bet on those fighters. That's why I always bet on Gaethje. From a betting standpoint it's worked out for me. And it's not supernatural. That kind of warrior mentally wins fight and is what legends are made of. I'm not saying DP will quit in there. He's a warrior too. I like both fighters. I'm just saying betting on Holloway is the right call imo and win or lose I'm happy to see the fight happen. It'll be a fun one.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

You go off who you think will win? I always stayed away from any 1.5 O/U (lie turner Farv).....some women's fight would take their strike total so high it would outpoint my guy who won in the 1st....

yes, preference is a finish...that said, last pick or 2 is usually not someone you would pick if there was no salary cap but has a decent shot at a win or at least get to a decision.

[Shagdogy]

Turbo and Hugo - about that Reis/Pantoja fight, I'm right down the middle of you two. Turbo, I'm with the rest that don't think Reis will have the striking edge. I think Pantoja will land the more consistent, harder shots. However, I'm not sold that he KO's Reis, and if he doesn't get the striking really on a roll then he's going to have to contend with the TDs which could keep this fight very very close. I've been making a concerted effort not to bet favorites unless I'm very high on them, and for this fight I lean Pantoja but with low confidence. No bet for me.

Agree with both of you on Izzy - this is his fight to lose. That reach advantage is just dirty and he knows how to use it. Kelvin's best bet is to try to go chin for chin and just not even worry about the striking defense so much and just rush through Izzy's strikes. Dangerous game.

[Shagdogy]

Overall I'm finding very little I really like on this card. Have not placed a single bet yet. Leans would be Griffin, Salmon, Turner, Izzy.

[PaperTrail07]

for sure.....I don't play them-tried 1-2 but remember starting to pick ones that went the distance bc of the # of strikes

yes, preference is a finish...that said, last pick or 2 is usually not someone you would pick if there was no salary cap but has a decent shot at a win or at least get to a decision.

[PaperTrail07]

Weis will win the volume as well---he throws more sloppy--sure---but the # will add up....judges could play a factor...

Turbo and Hugo - about that Reis/Pantoja fight, I'm right down the middle of you two. Turbo, I'm with the rest that don't think Reis will have the striking edge. I think Pantoja will land the more consistent, harder shots. However, I'm not sold that he KO's Reis, and if he doesn't get the striking really on a roll then he's going to have to contend with the TDs which could keep this fight very very close. I've been making a concerted effort not to bet favorites unless I'm very high on them, and for this fight I lean Pantoja but with low confidence. No bet for me.

Agree with both of you on Izzy - this is his fight to lose. That reach advantage is just dirty and he knows how to use it. Kelvin's best bet is to try to go chin for chin and just not even worry about the striking defense so much and just rush through Izzy's strikes. Dangerous game.

[Thrilla]

1.5 episodes into the embedded series watching now and if I had to pick based on this alone it would be Poirier and Adesanya.

Not feeling the will for revenge from Holloway and also Gastelum isn't giving me the energy of someone who's motivated. On the other hand Poirier's word usage and energy tells me he's on a mission. Haven't seen Adesanya yet....Will finish watching.

[firekillex]

Holloway looking healthy , i hope he stays at 55
Doesnt look really drained or out of it at all, like Porier a lot but i think Holloway is gonna be too much for him

[Thrilla]

We need inSanity C*nt's twisted and fukked up mind's take on pre-fight media stuff. But he changed his avatar...he almost looks like a normal person now.

I don't like the change.

[turbozed]

As far as the main event goes, I have bad news (or good news depending on your viewpoint)....

My friend, who's huge into UFC, and used to write a column on it, etc etc.... I used to ask him his opinions on people when NJ opened up betting and I started betting UFC.... he/we did well.

And the current streak he's on has been nothing short of horrific. A long string of losses. Long.

His pick for this fight: Holloway


I'll see myself out

Even a broken clock is right twice every day.

[Demonata]

We need inSanity C*nt's twisted and fukked up mind's take on pre-fight media stuff. But he changed his avatar...he almost looks like a normal person now.

I don't like the change.

You can just look at your garbage avatar of a terrorist and barking weirdo.

[SmellMyFinger]

gastelum by sub at +520 , not a bad play

i still think the skill gap in the striking is at least as big as the grappling skill gap in favor of kelvin

could see a failed scramble by IA leading to him having his back taken and choked out

i have a feeling gus and his team are not total retards and expect to win this by outpointing on the feet or a bliz ko

IA's lack of ko power and KG's chin and gas tank also work in the favor of the sub outcome

some of you made the correct point about the masterful range management and faints of izzy but the extra tools and experience sways me not to play the striker here

gl all

[hhuang95]

Is there any value on Soukhamthath over possibly mentally weak Montel Jackson?

[Sanity Check]

We need inSanity C*nt's twisted and fukked up mind's take on pre-fight media stuff. But he changed his avatar...he almost looks like a normal person now.

I don't like the change.

UFC 236, I don't have any leans I feel good about, unlike the last 3-4 cards.

Is there any value on Soukhamthath over possibly mentally weak Montel Jackson?

Montel's not mentally weak. He's been a professional fighter for less than 2 years and is still acclimating.

[Shagdogy]

Is there any value on Soukhamthath over possibly mentally weak Montel Jackson?

What tells you he’s mentally weak? I think this is a horrible style matchup for Souk. Jackson has everything he needs to win this fight going away.

[Shagdogy]

Question for everyone here on Gas: have you checked his fight stats? How many fights has it been since he’s landed a TD? How many UFC fights has he landed more than a single TD?

Another question for those betting KO: Have you ever seen Izzy rocked, let alone dropped, in MMA?

[Sanity Check]

Question for everyone here on Gas: have you checked his fight stats? How many fights has it been since he’s landed a TD? How many UFC fights has he landed more than a single TD?

Another question for those betting KO: Have you ever seen Izzy rocked, let alone dropped, in MMA?

Kelvin was out-wrestled by Chris Weidman. Jacare also out-wrestled Kelvin if I remember right. Whatever Kelvin's stats he's probably not one of the best wrestler's in the division.

I think "Izzy" carries his chin up in the air @ times which causes people to think someone will eventually connect on it and turn out the lights.

The same could be said about Kelvin. When have we seen him be wobbled or hurt in a fight. Nothing comes to mind.

[magpie878]

Even a broken clock is right twice every day.

His clock has been wrong for a looooong time.

And FYI, he's taking Gastelum.

[Hugo de Naranja]

gastelum by sub at +520 , not a bad play

i still think the skill gap in the striking is at least as big as the grappling skill gap in favor of kelvin

could see a failed scramble by IA leading to him having his back taken and choked out

i have a feeling gus and his team are not total retards and expect to win this by outpointing on the feet or a bliz ko

IA's lack of ko power and KG's chin and gas tank also work in the favor of the sub outcome

some of you made the correct point about the masterful range management and faints of izzy but the extra tools and experience sways me not to play the striker here

gl all

I disagree. How many takedowns has Gastelum landed at MW?

[Shagdogy]

Kelvin was out-wrestled by Chris Weidman. Jacare also out-wrestled Kelvin if I remember right. Whatever Kelvin's stats he's probably not one of the best wrestler's in the division.

I think "Izzy" carries his chin up in the air @ times which causes people to think someone will eventually connect on it and turn out the lights.

The same could be said about Kelvin. When have we seen him be wobbled or hurt in a fight. Nothing comes to mind.

I agree, his TDD is surprisingly average but Izzy won’t be testing that. But for those thinking he’s gonna be this TD guy and put Izzy on mat, I ask how often he’s been able to do that? Zero TDs in his last 6 fights. Granted styles play into it, but he’s not holding some overwhelmingly dominant wrestling in his back pocket.

As for Gas landing the KO blow, he has the power for it. I don’t think it’s impossible, but it would be a first for Izzy who gets hit very little, and when he has been cracked seems to have no chin issues. Hugo has helped drill this into me - don’t assume things are true until we’ve seen they are true. So in this case, done assume Izzy can’t eat Kelvin’s shots since there is no proof that says he can’t

[SmellMyFinger]

i don't think it would have been smart to grapple Weidman or Jacare , and this is a matcup where he can have a grappling edge, i'm not sure why you guys rule out a club and sub. just found gus sub at +750 at pokerstars , hitting it of 1 more unit

[Sanity Check]

I would like to see Kelvin fight Brad Tavares or Derek Brunson if he loses. Two good wrestlers @ 185.

In those two names, it is possible Israel Adesanya has aleady fought wrestlers on Kelvin's level.

Wrestling isn't what got Kelvin to where he is now and it would be a bit surprising if Kelvin suddenly becomes the 185 lb version of Khabib after being a stand and bang fighter for years.

[Demonata]

adensanya and max holloway parlay just seems like a lock

[PaperTrail07]

Gastelum did not seem impressed lol.....lets GO

[PaperTrail07]

He used takedowns to beat Uriah Hall and win TUF>.......so he used wrestling to start his MMA and UFC career LOL.......WHIFFF

I would like to see Kelvin fight Brad Tavares or Derek Brunson if he loses. Two good wrestlers @ 185.

In those two names, it is possible Israel Adesanya has aleady fought wrestlers on Kelvin's level.

Wrestling isn't what got Kelvin to where he is now and it would be a bit surprising if Kelvin suddenly becomes the 185 lb version of Khabib after being a stand and bang fighter for years.

[PaperTrail07]

and to also think these top fighters don't know how to mix it up is crazy...like when I called big Roy to used takedowns vs BB.......it might no be their top skillset...but it penetrating applies here LOL...

I would like to see Kelvin fight Brad Tavares or Derek Brunson if he loses. Two good wrestlers @ 185.

In those two names, it is possible Israel Adesanya has aleady fought wrestlers on Kelvin's level.

Wrestling isn't what got Kelvin to where he is now and it would be a bit surprising if Kelvin suddenly becomes the 185 lb version of Khabib after being a stand and bang fighter for years.

[PaperTrail07]

I also used to laugh at Greg Jackson and their camp slowly explaining the obvious....but after seeing Roberts , THEN ....Kennedy Nzech doing the dumbest shit ever, I see why they exist....that said....KG is smart...knows what to do and listens to his coach....I feel he can execute a gameplan.....if he does not....we may see a Rashad wobble like Machida got him lol...

[magpie878]

adensanya and max holloway parlay just seems like a lock

I was just coming here to say that PointsBet (NJ) has this parlay at boosted odds, from +100 to +160.

[Sanity Check]

He used takedowns to beat Uriah Hall and win TUF

back in.... 2013.

You know what happens to wrestlers after they knock someone out. They fall in love with their power, it becomes addicting. They don't want to wrestle anymore.

Let's see if Kelvin avoids that trap.

[Sanity Check]

and to also think these top fighters don't know how to mix it up is crazy...like when I called big Roy to used takedowns vs BB.......it might no be their top skillset...but it penetrating applies here LOL...

Derek Brunson got the better of the wrestling when he fought Yoel Romero. Yoel out-wrestled Chris Weidman.

Israel Adesanya might not have fought a Derek Brunson in top form in terms of his wrestling/grappling game.

But it is possible "Izzy" has already faced a guy who can wrestle better than Kelvin Gastelum.

[PaperTrail07]

True-but there are different style of wrestling.....Brunson takes quick shots---

Derek Brunson got the better of the wrestling when he fought Yoel Romero. Yoel out-wrestled Chris Weidman.

Israel Adesanya might not have fought a Derek Brunson in top form in terms of his wrestling/grappling game.

But it is possible "Izzy" has already faced a guy who can wrestle better than Kelvin Gastelum.

[firekillex]

Obviously Yoel would smoke Brunson wrestling, he just doesnt care if he gets taken down because he can pop up so quick
Kelvin isnt some amazing wrestler at all and he won a split decision over Uriah Hall and lost a split decision to Neil Magny similiar body types to Israel but Israel is much better at controlling distance then both, no doubt Kelvin will try to take him down and grind him against the cage , doesnt mean it will work.. Brunson tried the same thing and got absolutely destroyed, Kelvin has a much better chin though so i doubt it ends quickly.. either a late finish or decision for Israel

Israel vs Whittaker going to be fireworks

[Shagdogy]

back in.... 2013.

You know what happens to wrestlers after they knock someone out. They fall in love with their power, it becomes addicting. They don't want to wrestle anymore.

Let's see if Kelvin avoids that trap.

And also at WW.

[Shagdogy]

If Gas is going to outwrestlw Adesanya it will have to be late in the fight IMO. Don’t think he will do it early. I just think that he has cultivated a game over time that isn’t built for a guy like Adesanya. In his current form he’s cardio, chin, 1-2 combo with power. Adesanya also has cardio. His chin is not as proven but it has no known issues, and his striking abilities and variety far exceed what Kelvin does. Not even close.

I really think those betting Gas on the premise that he will just outwrestle Adesanya bell to bell are buying false goods. His path to victory is KO IMO, and if Gas lands that left hand flush and Izzy eats it no issue, then it’s gonna be a long night for Kelvin and he better get some ice ready for his ribs and legs the next day.