UFC Fight Night: Till vs. Masvidal, March 16, 2019 at The O2 Arena in London, England

[JIBBBY]

Thanks Jibby, TP and so many others for your contributions to this thread. The combined thoughts give me an excellent overview of the matches. I truly appreciate the hard work and generosity of you all.

That's how we all roll up in this beast!!! More information the better I always say..

[JIBBBY]

Where are the props for this event? I'm not seeing any on 5Dimes or BestFightOdds.

Slow to show for this event for sure... They'll pop up soon..

[The HOFF]

Any read on the Ige fight? Haven't looked at it, just the line movement so far, opened at +102 but sits at -155 (5D).

He comes out guns blazing in round 1 and then fades. I love that I got Henry as a dog in this fight.

[Shagdogy]

Is anybody else loving Rinaldi? I think he's going to blanket Allen all night after watching the past couple fights of each. Rinaldi will definitely have a considerable size advantage over Allen and Allen was taken down whenever Mads Burnell wanted until he left his neck out too long. Burnell isn't even in the UFC any longer. Rinaldi is 2-2 in the UFC but his loses are to Gillespie and a short notice loss to Abel Trujillo in his debut almost 3 years ago.

Don't confuse the UFC cutting Mads Burnell as a sign that he's a poor fighter. Mads Burnell is good and he just might be very good. I think the poor optics for Allen of the Allen/Burnell fight, combined with the good optics for Rinaldi from his fight with Knight have combined to keep this line close.

Imagine that Allen was coming off his win over Amirkhani and Rinaldi was coming off his absolute beating at the hands of Gregor Gillespie... this line would be more in favor of Allen if that was the case. I think MMA math is possibly playing tricks on people in this matchup. It's not as simple as: Burnell took down Allen... Rinaldi took down Knight... therefore Rinaldi will take down Allen.

[JIBBBY]

I love MMA... Pure sport.. Jibs just telling my story for no reason just to tell ...

I tried it for a time and wrenched my neck bad grappling escaping a neck choke.. Was done after that in the end, late to the game and was a stand up boxer myself. Been and seen it all though in the big boy sport of MMA living in LA.. Been inside all the biggest gyms in LA.. Total gang scene when you walk in for the first time! Bring your head gear and mouth piece they always told me and I did.. As the gang of MMA training fighters looked me down..

MMA gym training is a gang in a sense.. Wooop some asss and you are in.. Just that simple..

Brutal sport and I still believe it's a total young mans sport.. Just sharing my take..

Bellator fade the old guys..

[Hugo de Naranja]

I love MMA... Pure sport.. Jibs just telling my story for no reason just to tell ...

I tried it for a time and wrenched my neck bad grappling escaping a neck choke.. Was done after that in the end, late to the game and was a stand up boxer myself. Been and seen it all though in the big boy sport of MMA living in LA.. Been inside all the biggest gyms in LA.. Total gang scene when you walk in for the first time! Bring your head gear and mouth piece they always told me and I did.. As the gang of MMA training fighters looked me down..

MMA gym training is a gang in a sense.. Wooop some asss and you are in.. Just that simple..

Brutal sport and I still believe it's a total young mans sport.. Just sharing my take..

Bellator fade the old guys..

Thanks for sharing! You're an interesting fellow that's for sure.

[JIBBBY]

Thanks for sharing! You're an interesting fellow that's for sure.

Pretty normal guy today to be honest, just traveled alot and pushed the envelope in most sports but always came up just a little short.. Story of my life...

I did try though... No regrets Hugo just alot of stories to tell now...

[turbozed]

I'm not advocating playing Cachoeira here (although I think the odds now justify a play). I'm posting this breakdown just as a caution against playing Molly:


Molly has decentboxing technique, and she does all the hallmarks of what you expect from aboxer--good punch variety, some head movement, some footwork slipping to theright side (only to the right side). Her biggest problems on the feet are thather boxing goes to shit backing up and and she has very little power. She wasable to just put her opponents up against the fence and wail away for the mostpart, but there were some moments when her opponents pushed forward and Mollyjust backed up straight with her hands down looking uncomfortable. As far aspower is concerned, all of her stoppage wins have come against fighters withnon-winning records (0-0, 1-2, 0-2) except for the stoppage against Game ofThrones character Byrony Tyrell which looked like a bad stoppage since Tyrelllooked more flustered than hurt.


These issues will bebig problems in this fight against Cach who has an absurd granite chin and canjust walk Molly down. This girl can take punishment and not stop, which we sawon the ground against Schevchenko. She's also going to be huge compared to MollyI think since she looked bigger than even Schev. I don't think Molly has thegoods to hurt Cach which means that Molly will need to fight on her back footor play an outside game. Nothing tells me that Molly is good enough to do thatso she might just revert to her instincts and just swing with Cach. This is abad idea because Cach has the power and chin advantage. Cach finished 3 of herlast 4 wins, and the one she didn't finish looked like it should've beenstopped multiple times.


Meanwhile, Molly hasbeen dropped by a strawweight in Cage Warriors. We didn't get to see much ofCach's improvements in the Schev fight because Schev just took her down anddominated. But for the few seconds it was on the feet, Cach looked morepatient, still ate a few punches, and then actually caught Shev with a righthand that looked pretty powerful and caused Schev to go for the TD. If Mollycan't stop Cach from moving forward, whatever technical polish she has comparedto Cach will make little difference.



As far as the groundgame is concerned, we haven't seen much of Cach but her size alone probablygives her the advantage. For being as stock and spherical as Molly is, she'sgot the worst balance I've seen, getting taken down by the weakest of TDattempts. They are both BJJ blue belts and, at that low level, Cach should bebetter on physicality alone.


Finally, Molly looksterrible in the clinch. She looked lost when de Souza grabbed her neck andstarted throwing knees, just backing away straight and slooppily trying toframe away without fighting for underhooks or controlling her posture (headdown, broken posture). Priscilla really can just strike her way into a clinch,grab Molly and just throw knees.


I think this isgoing to be a sloppy and hilariously bad fight unless the fighting style ofboth have changed significantly. I think it's going to be a coinflip matchup soI might consider playing Cachoeira at +170 on odds alone. We've already seenhow a size/strength/toughness advantage at low level WMMA can trump technicaladvantages (e.g. Frota/Souza). I'd highly caution against spending -200 on afighter with "Can" in her last name and who actually fights like one.

[The HOFF]

I watched a few McCann fights last night. Seems to have no takedown defense and looks lost on her back. Huge fade if she ever fights a wrestler. Will watch a few Cachoeira fights and see if she has any sort of takedowns. I agree this fight is Cachoeira or a pass.

[bjpenn85]

I put a small bet on MCCAnn at -180 because i think she is so much better on the feet it will make a difference. Super risky bet though, i actually dont like to bet these kind of fights, cachoeira seems very tuf, but shes so fakking clumsy as well. She can easily be steamrolled as well. She has 0 defence, how long can this fighting style continue in the ufc? Chin up in the air like the eiffel tower and winging punches like a fakking moron. Fan friendly but yeah, i feel mccan will punish her, but i might be wrong, maybe she just doesnt have the confidence, cardio or whatever one needs to break down cachoeiras pressure....well seee saturday i guess.

[TPowell]

I have McCann ML in a parlay with Reyes at plus money and I have a unit on McCann by DEC at +110 as well. She's the much better technical striker and has the MUCH better gas tank. She's VERY beatable against a competent fighter but Cachoeira is an absolute brawler who NEVER looks for the TD and is just sloppy in general. She's very tough and aggressive but she should get pieced up by Molly. Neither girl has much power and since a SUB is highly unlikely, I REALLY like the FGTD prop.

[TPowell]

Wow, they really aren't screwing around with Edwards props. I thought maybe we would see close to +200 on him by DEC. It opened at +161 and was gone instantly. I'll stick with my FGTD play for a unit at -115 from last night I think.

[TPowell]

Here's what I added since my original 3 plays. I wish I would have waited on Reyes/Volkan FGTD and just put the half unit on Reyes by DEC at +370. I don't think Volkan can win a DEC here

Duffy/Diakese FGTD at +100 for 1 unit
Reyes/Volkan FGTD at +205 for 0.5 units
Edwards/Nelson FGTD at -115 for 1.15 units
Reyes by DEC at +370 for 0.5 units
McCann by DEC at -110 for 1 unit
Rinaldi by DEC at +210 for 1 unit

[TPowell]

I'm not advocating playing Cachoeira here (although I think the odds now justify a play). I'm posting this breakdown just as a caution against playing Molly:


Molly has decentboxing technique, and she does all the hallmarks of what you expect from aboxer--good punch variety, some head movement, some footwork slipping to theright side (only to the right side). Her biggest problems on the feet are thather boxing goes to shit backing up and and she has very little power. She wasable to just put her opponents up against the fence and wail away for the mostpart, but there were some moments when her opponents pushed forward and Mollyjust backed up straight with her hands down looking uncomfortable. As far aspower is concerned, all of her stoppage wins have come against fighters withnon-winning records (0-0, 1-2, 0-2) except for the stoppage against Game ofThrones character Byrony Tyrell which looked like a bad stoppage since Tyrelllooked more flustered than hurt.


These issues will bebig problems in this fight against Cach who has an absurd granite chin and canjust walk Molly down. This girl can take punishment and not stop, which we sawon the ground against Schevchenko. She's also going to be huge compared to MollyI think since she looked bigger than even Schev. I don't think Molly has thegoods to hurt Cach which means that Molly will need to fight on her back footor play an outside game. Nothing tells me that Molly is good enough to do thatso she might just revert to her instincts and just swing with Cach. This is abad idea because Cach has the power and chin advantage. Cach finished 3 of herlast 4 wins, and the one she didn't finish looked like it should've beenstopped multiple times.


Meanwhile, Molly hasbeen dropped by a strawweight in Cage Warriors. We didn't get to see much ofCach's improvements in the Schev fight because Schev just took her down anddominated. But for the few seconds it was on the feet, Cach looked morepatient, still ate a few punches, and then actually caught Shev with a righthand that looked pretty powerful and caused Schev to go for the TD. If Mollycan't stop Cach from moving forward, whatever technical polish she has comparedto Cach will make little difference.



As far as the groundgame is concerned, we haven't seen much of Cach but her size alone probablygives her the advantage. For being as stock and spherical as Molly is, she'sgot the worst balance I've seen, getting taken down by the weakest of TDattempts. They are both BJJ blue belts and, at that low level, Cach should bebetter on physicality alone.


Finally, Molly looksterrible in the clinch. She looked lost when de Souza grabbed her neck andstarted throwing knees, just backing away straight and slooppily trying toframe away without fighting for underhooks or controlling her posture (headdown, broken posture). Priscilla really can just strike her way into a clinch,grab Molly and just throw knees.


I think this isgoing to be a sloppy and hilariously bad fight unless the fighting style ofboth have changed significantly. I think it's going to be a coinflip matchup soI might consider playing Cachoeira at +170 on odds alone. We've already seenhow a size/strength/toughness advantage at low level WMMA can trump technicaladvantages (e.g. Frota/Souza). I'd highly caution against spending -200 on afighter with "Can" in her last name and who actually fights like one.

You have to look at her competition level. When she fought someone that wasn't a complete can (still a can but whatever), she went to a decision like the Souza and Torres fights. Martins wasn't bad and she finished her but Martins has also been finished three times in her 8 fight career. Cachoeira really isn't that powerful. She gets by against awful competition by swinging bombs and backing them down with her size, but if you MOVE your feet at all, she gets lost quick. Souza did a decent job early in that fight and gave her some issues. I think McCann can do the same thing here. If she makes it out of the first round, she should be able to win the last two off her volume and how bad Cachoeira typically gasses.

[HurlSweatPants]

Yeah, sitting at +135 now. Not bad for a likely outcome, but I took him at -130 SU b/c I just cant trust Gunnars striking defense. Edwards is precise and all it takes is 1 to the sweet spot. Will hedge sub prop when the line comes out.

Lot of posters liking Till DEC, sitting at +145. Interesting that ITD is not too far off at 185. Feel like Round 1 would be a better hedge, if Mas can weather the storm in the first round, I dont see him getting finished.

[JIBBBY]

From what I'm seeing this event has a 2 or 3 hour earlier start time then normal tomorrow.. Matinee venue since it's in England I guess.. Take note!!

Basic props are up now also by the way on Dimes..

Jorge Masvidal vs Darren Till - Welterweight 5 rounds - UFC on ESPN+ 5
Sat 3/16		1003 Masvidal / Till goes 5 round distance		-130
6:30PM		1004 Fight won't go 5 round distance		-110
Sat 3/16		1005 Masvidal wins inside distance		+375
6:30PM		1006 Not Masvidal inside distance		-565
Sat 3/16		1007 Masvidal wins by 5 round decision		+425
6:30PM		1008 Not Masvidal by 5 round decision		-675
Sat 3/16		1009 Till wins inside distance		+183
6:30PM		1010 Not Till inside distance		-263
Sat 3/16		1011 Till wins by 5 round decision		+145
6:30PM		1012 Not Till by 5 round decision		-185
Sat 3/16		1013 Masvidal / Till draw		+7500
6:30PM		1014 Fight not a draw		-20000

[bjpenn85]

I'm not advocating playing Cachoeira here (although I think the odds now justify a play). I'm posting this breakdown just as a caution against playing Molly:

Look at coacheiras wins as well? Horrible competition...absolutely horrible. I watched her fights man....its a joke

Molly has decentboxing technique, and she does all the hallmarks of what you expect from aboxer--good punch variety, some head movement, some footwork slipping to theright side (only to the right side). Her biggest problems on the feet are thather boxing goes to shit backing up and and she has very little power. She wasable to just put her opponents up against the fence and wail away for the mostpart, but there were some moments when her opponents pushed forward and Mollyjust backed up straight with her hands down looking uncomfortable. As far aspower is concerned, all of her stoppage wins have come against fighters withnon-winning records (0-0, 1-2, 0-2) except for the stoppage against Game ofThrones character Byrony Tyrell which looked like a bad stoppage since Tyrelllooked more flustered than hurt.


These issues will bebig problems in this fight against Cach who has an absurd granite chin and canjust walk Molly down. This girl can take punishment and not stop, which we sawon the ground against Schevchenko. She's also going to be huge compared to MollyI think since she looked bigger than even Schev. I don't think Molly has thegoods to hurt Cach which means that Molly will need to fight on her back footor play an outside game. Nothing tells me that Molly is good enough to do thatso she might just revert to her instincts and just swing with Cach. This is abad idea because Cach has the power and chin advantage. Cach finished 3 of herlast 4 wins, and the one she didn't finish looked like it should've beenstopped multiple times.


Meanwhile, Molly hasbeen dropped by a strawweight in Cage Warriors. We didn't get to see much ofCach's improvements in the Schev fight because Schev just took her down anddominated. But for the few seconds it was on the feet, Cach looked morepatient, still ate a few punches, and then actually caught Shev with a righthand that looked pretty powerful and caused Schev to go for the TD. If Mollycan't stop Cach from moving forward, whatever technical polish she has comparedto Cach will make little difference.



As far as the groundgame is concerned, we haven't seen much of Cach but her size alone probablygives her the advantage. For being as stock and spherical as Molly is, she'sgot the worst balance I've seen, getting taken down by the weakest of TDattempts. They are both BJJ blue belts and, at that low level, Cach should bebetter on physicality alone.


Finally, Molly looksterrible in the clinch. She looked lost when de Souza grabbed her neck andstarted throwing knees, just backing away straight and slooppily trying toframe away without fighting for underhooks or controlling her posture (headdown, broken posture). Priscilla really can just strike her way into a clinch,grab Molly and just throw knees.


I think this isgoing to be a sloppy and hilariously bad fight unless the fighting style ofboth have changed significantly. I think it's going to be a coinflip matchup soI might consider playing Cachoeira at +170 on odds alone. We've already seenhow a size/strength/toughness advantage at low level WMMA can trump technicaladvantages (e.g. Frota/Souza). I'd highly caution against spending -200 on afighter with "Can" in her last name and who actually fights like one.

Look at coacheiras wins as well? Horrible competition...absolutely horrible. I watched her fights man....its a joke

[TPowell]

Look at coacheiras wins as well? Horrible competition...absolutely horrible. I watched her fights man....its a joke

Nobody is wrong here. These girls aren't UFC level. McCann's striking technique and scrappyness is UFC level and Cachoeira looks the part physically and is active/aggressive enough but doesn't have any legit skills. Both girls struggle against competition that can move and make their brawling style ineffective. I think McCann is much more likely to have better footwork and movement in this one and I think that will decide it

[bjpenn85]

Nobody is wrong here. These girls aren't UFC level. McCann's striking technique and scrappyness is UFC level and Cachoeira looks the part physically and is active/aggressive enough but doesn't have any legit skills. Both girls struggle against competition that can move and make their brawling style ineffective. I think McCann is much more likely to have better footwork and movement in this one and I think that will decide it

When two fighters are this bad, ill try to 86 both of there records, and just go by their skills in isolation, in a vacuum. In that vacuum, Coacheiras skills is bullshit. But x-factors that one cant really calculate may still be really important and be the deciding factor. Main problem with betting these fights in the first place. But in a vacuum, ill go by the more skilled fighter, ill hope she uses her experience and skills in a way that isnt embarrassing hehe. Fingers crossed!!

[t dog]

Duffy/Diakese, looked more into these guys after Jibby reposted the fight prediction. Small bet added for me on Duffy. If Duffy wasn’t coming off an injury I would go big on him I believe. I see a clear mismatch going on with this one. Yes you will get juiced but I see a clear mismatch here that I don’t see on the main/ co or Reyes fight.

[Shagdogy]

Cachoeira is total garbage but Turbo isn’t wrong to warn against McCann for all the reasons he stated - most of all the size advantage and granite chin of Cachoeira. I’m all for finding an edge wherever there is on but this is such a garbage fight. Stay away.

[TPowell]

Cachoeira is total garbage but Turbo isn’t wrong to warn against McCann for all the reasons he stated - most of all the size advantage and granite chin of Cachoeira. I’m all for finding an edge wherever there is on but this is such a garbage fight. Stay away.

I think FGTD is very reasonable here. These girls aren't hard hitters really and they have ZERO ground game. Cachoeira is durable enough to take a beating on the feet and I think McCann can eat those shots as well if necessary.

[Penny2323]

Been a busy week for me wish I would have been able to chime in more LOVE all the passion for the sport on this forum. Sweats I got your PM I can’t message back until 40 posts.. but your right and thank you.

I’m excited for this card top to bottom will probably have some sort of action on every fight but I have a monster play this week and another lean against some heavy sharp money!!

The Masvidal money the past 24 hours or so has been very interesting.. any idea who the judges will be for this show?

[firekillex]

Till by decision , Gunnar by Submission
im not a rapper though

[PaperTrail07]

Final picks for me are also: Till and Gunny.....debated the Edwards /nelson fight a lot but the more I think about it GN should be able to deal with his style fairly EASILY......

[PaperTrail07]

Fighting - 24002 D. Till -230 for Game
Fighting - 24005 G. Nelson +125 for Game
Fighting - 24037 I. Heinisch -105 for Game
Figured the Heinisch line would drop a tad...

[bjpenn85]

What the devil? grundy +320? How did that happen? he was +110 before i went out to buy groceries?

Enlightenment please?

[PaperTrail07]

? take another look lol

What the devil? grundy +320? How did that happen? he was +110 before i went out to buy groceries?

Enlightenment please?

[bjpenn85]

? take another look lol

technical issue on bestfightodds.com. It happens from time to time.

[HurlSweatPants]

Fighting - 24002 D. Till -230 for Game
Fighting - 24005 G. Nelson +125 for Game
Fighting - 24037 I. Heinisch -105 for Game
Figured the Heinisch line would drop a tad...

Paper- I was going to ask if you wanted to put some points on the Breese fight? I still owe you a butt kicking for Daley even though we never put anything on it.

[HurlSweatPants]

Been a busy week for me wish I would have been able to chime in more LOVE all the passion for the sport on this forum. Sweats I got your PM I can’t message back until 40 posts.. but your right and thank you.

I’m excited for this card top to bottom will probably have some sort of action on every fight but I have a monster play this week and another lean against some heavy sharp money!!

The Masvidal money the past 24 hours or so has been very interesting.. any idea who the judges will be for this show?

Looking forward to it, and again awesome prediction on Schnell. I went back and read your write up and you couldn't have nailed it any better.

[HurlSweatPants]

Had no idea Saki was supposed to be on this card, would like to see him back soon. Feel like he beats Roundtree 8 out of 10 times, but thats the fight game.

[Penny2323]

Leon Edwards will get the due respect he has deserved after Saturday more detail to come.

[UncleChael]

Had no idea Saki was supposed to be on this card, would like to see him back soon. Feel like he beats Roundtree 8 out of 10 times, but thats the fight game.

We need guys like you.
Edit: He gets his a** kicked everytime

[HurlSweatPants]

We need guys like you.
Edit: He gets his a** kicked everytime

Hush up before I ankle pick you and spray you with Holy Water.