UFC Fight Night: Till vs. Masvidal, March 16, 2019 at The O2 Arena in London, England

[HurlSweatPants]

Stand corrected on the Gunnar SUB prop, hedging ITD instead since its 185 compared to 190. Books are giving him virtually no chance of KOing Edwards.

[Shagdogy]

I think FGTD is very reasonable here. These girls aren't hard hitters really and they have ZERO ground game. Cachoeira is durable enough to take a beating on the feet and I think McCann can eat those shots as well if necessary.

I don’t hate it. Forced to choose I’d say it goes the distance since McCann seems the cleaner striker and Cachoeira looks like she could eat bombs from the Black Beast no problem, but terrible fights can end pretty much any terrible way imaginable. Trying to practice discipline. Laying off.

[JIBBBY]

Stand corrected on the Gunnar SUB prop, hedging ITD instead since its 185 compared to 190. Books are giving him virtually no chance of KOing Edwards.

Always gotta compare the ITD to SUB props with all fighters. Sharp.. I always take the ITD if the odds are very close why not? It's not like Nelson can't throw a punch!!

1127 Nelson wins by submission

+190

1105 Nelson wins inside distance

+185

[Teem]

You guys think Roberts/Silva will at least start round 2?

[turbozed]

When two fighters are this bad, ill try to 86 both of there records, and just go by their skills in isolation, in a vacuum. In that vacuum, Coacheiras skills is bullshit. But x-factors that one cant really calculate may still be really important and be the deciding factor. Main problem with betting these fights in the first place. But in a vacuum, ill go by the more skilled fighter, ill hope she uses her experience and skills in a way that isnt embarrassing hehe. Fingers crossed!!

I'm the opposite. When the level is bad, I think attributes like size, power, and chin will matter a lot more. Of course, if Molly can get Cach moving backwards, she can look really good since she does her best work when her opponent is backing up and covering up. I just can't see Cach being scared off by Molly's (lack of power) and we've seen Molly dropped by a way smaller girl with no apparent power.

We've seen power and aggressiveness trump skill and technique even at higher levels of WMMA. Holm wanted no part of Anderson's striking after a minute or so. Livia Souza couldn't stop Frota's forward attack either, and was losing handily on the feet to someone everyone said the same things about Cachoeira (chin up, zombie-like, winging punches, etc.). Both these girls had to take their opponent to the ground to win, and Souza barely won by split decision despite being a heavy favorite.

It's pretty clear that Molly's technique looks a lot better than what we've seen from Cach. The more pertinent question is whether the technique will be good enough to trust her with nearly 2-1 favorite odds. IMO, it's not. I'd also be worried about the fact that Cach has been training with Andrade for the past year or so. If there's any girl that can be dominant moving forward, eating shots, and just overwhelming technically better strikers, it's Andrade. If she's taught Cach even a small bit of her pressure game, then Cach may look a lot better here.

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC on ESPN+ 5: Till vs. Masvidal Picks:
Nad Narimani Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
Molly McCann Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)
Dan Ige Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)
Ian Heinisch Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Nicolae Negumereanu Round 2 TKO (Punches)
Joe Duffy Round 1 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Arnold Allen Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28 x2)
John Phillips Round 1 KO (Punch)
Claudio Silva Round 1 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Nathaniel Wood Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Dominick Reyes Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Leon Edwards Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28 x2)
Darren Till Unanimous Decision (49-46 x2, 48-47)

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC on ESPN+ 5: Till vs. Masvidal

ESPN+ Prelims:

Fight #1: Narimani vs. Grundy (DEBUT)
Parlays

Hedge(s):
Grundy Decision (+265) 1u
Grundy Submission (+650) .5u

Fight #2: McCann vs. Cachoeira
McCann (-165) 3.3u to win 2u

Fight #3: Ige vs. Henry
No Bet

Fight #4: Heinisch vs. Breese
Heinisch (+125) 1u
Heinisch ITD (+360) .5u

Fight #5: Negumereanu (DEBUT) vs. Safarov
Parlays

Fight #6: Duffy vs. Diakiese
Parlays

Fight #7: Allen vs. Rinaldi
Allen Round 3 (+1363) .5u

Main Card:

Fight #8: Phillips vs. Marshman
No Bet

Fight #9: Silva vs. Roberts
No Bet

Fight #10: Wood vs. Quinonez
No Bet

Fight #11: Reyes vs. Oezdemir
Parlays

Hedge:
Oezdemir Round 1 (+509) .5u

Fight #12: Edwards vs. Nelson
Edwards (-131) 5.25u to win 4u

Hedge:
Nelson ITD (+240) .5u

Fight #13: Till vs. Masvidal
Till Split/Majority Decision (+680) .75u

Straight Parlays:
Duffy/Reyes (-109) 2.18u to win 2u
Narimani/Duffy (-101) 3.15u to win 3.13u
Reyes/Till (+101) 1u
McCann/Reyes (+117) 1u

Prop Parlays:
Narimani+Grundy GD/Reyes (-108) 1.08u to win 1u
Negumereanu+Safarov WGD/Till+Masvidal GD (+113) 1u

Full Card Props:
Over 6.5 Fights Go Distance (+130) .5u
Over 7.5 Fights Go Distance (+280) .5u
Over 8.5 Fights Go Distance (+775) .2u
Over 9.5 Fights Go Distance (+2400) .1u
Over 10.5 Fights Go Distance (+9500) .05u

Multi-Event Parlays:
Askren/Till (+110) 1u

[Hugo de Naranja]

Not a big card for me on pre bets. Likely to add quite a few bets throughout if early action goes well.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I'm not convinced that Cach has a "granite chin". Wasn't she rocked multiple times by light puncher Shevchenko?

[bjpenn85]

Wow, big play on Edwards. You rarely loose with your big plays so.

[turbozed]

I'm not convinced that Cach has a "granite chin". Wasn't she rocked multiple times by light puncher Shevchenko?

Her head snapped back a couple of times but she was the last one to land in their exchange before Valentina took her down.

I could be wrong but from the little ive seen from both of them leads me to believe Molly won't be able to hurt her. If Valentina is pillow fisted than scientists will have to create a new softer material to describe her compared to schev. I don't see Molly walking down Nunes with the threat of power any time soon.

[Shagdogy]

I'm not convinced that Cach has a "granite chin". Wasn't she rocked multiple times by light puncher Shevchenko?

I don’t think I’ve ever seen her wobbled. She got stopped in her tracks many times by Shev because she was connecting super square but never put down or even off balance. On the regional scene it looks like her whole game was just to catch all punches with her face and march forward. Still never saw her wobbled. Hard to imagine McCann will be the first.

But enough time on this crappy fight. Let’s talk about Edwards/Gunny and that big bet you got going. Just think it stays standing? I slightly favor Edwards but haven’t played anything. I just can’t count Gunny out.

[JC2008]

Hey Hugo, how much do you wager per one unit? Just out of curiousity.

[Shagdogy]

Grundy +194, 3.5u
Silva -145, 1.45u
Ige -135, 1.35u

Safarov/Neg u1.5 -130, 1.3u

Reyes/Wood parlay -101, 2.02u
Duffy/Edwards parlay +168, 0.89u

Looks like my day will probably make or break on the Grundy pick, so let’s go Grundy. Clear value in that line so had to hit it - let’s see if he can get it done.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

love these early fight days, been up for a few hours already

gl on your action today everyone...

Hugo, do you enter any UFC contests at draftkings?

[bjpenn85]

Grundy +194, 3.5u
Silva -145, 1.45u
Ige -135, 1.35u

Safarov/Neg u1.5 -130, 1.3u

Reyes/Wood parlay -101, 2.02u
Duffy/Edwards parlay +168, 0.89u

Looks like my day will probably make or break on the Grundy pick, so let’s go Grundy. Clear value in that line so had to hit it - let’s see if he can get it done.

Im thinking about loading up on Silva as well. He needs one little leg, and then he slams you hard into the ground. And youre not going up after that. Wise choice. Excellent line on Grundy as well. I like that youre going hard on the underdogs. Punish the bookies when their mistaken!!

[bjpenn85]

Hey Hugo, how much do you wager per one unit? Just out of curiousity.

1 unit equals 50 dollar for Hugo. One event he won like 38 units or something. Pretty savage. Those days hes a real pro.

[HurlSweatPants]

Few hours before fights and still no HC. Guess i will be riding out the Edwards line and go small this event, probably for the best.

[PaperTrail07]

Silva round 1 hugo....wow....im on that over 1.5.....….Roberts is WAY faster than silva and hopefully he wore his dancing shoes lol....if it goes to the mat....we know what happens.....Silva is ground smart, heavy and strong....Roberts need to watch his kicks and focus on the jab....Gl today everyone.….Love Rocky too but onn Gunner.....he can deal w the grinder style IMo we will see.....CHEERS

[Shagdogy]

Im thinking about loading up on Silva as well. He needs one little leg, and then he slams you hard into the ground. And youre not going up after that. Wise choice. Excellent line on Grundy as well. I like that youre going hard on the underdogs. Punish the bookies when their mistaken!!

Solid 7u win if he pulls it off. No guarantee of course but if you play this line again and again you’re coming out on top over time for sure.

[PaperTrail07]

Parlay just to show where I stand on the bets:

#1) Sport : UFC Fighting
Selection : D. Till 3/16/2019 2:40PM - (PST) Money Line -230 for Game

#2) Sport : UFC Fighting
Selection : G. Nelson 3/16/2019 2:20PM - (PST) Money Line +120 for Game

#3) Sport : UFC Fighting
Selection : N. Wood 3/16/2019 2:10PM - (PST) Money Line -310 for Game

#4) Sport : UFC Fighting
Selection : D. Roberts/C. Silva 3/16/2019 1:40PM - (PST) Total Points OVER 1½ -140 for Game

#5) Sport : UFC Fighting
Selection : J. Marshman 3/16/2019 1:10PM - (PST) Money Line -140 for Game

#6) Sport : UFC Fighting
Selection : J. Rinaldi 3/16/2019 12:50PM - (PST) Money Line +120 for Game

#7) Sport : UFC Fighting
Selection : I. Heinisch 3/16/2019 11:35AM - (PST) Money Line -105 for Game

#8) Sport : UFC Fighting
Selection : D. Ige 3/16/2019 11:05AM - (PST) Money Line -135 for Game

Risking : 22.00 To Win : 1,996.09 USD

[Shagdogy]

Silva round 1 hugo....wow....im on that over 1.5.....….Roberts is WAY faster than silva and hopefully he wore his dancing shoes lol....if it goes to the mat....we know what happens.....Silva is ground smart, heavy and strong....Roberts need to watch his kicks and focus on the jab....Gl today everyone.….Love Rocky too but onn Gunner.....he can deal w the grinder style IMo we will see.....CHEERS

Silva’s striking isn’t as fast or crisp that’s for sure, but Silva is actually decently quick himself. He is kind of a burst fighter where he will just rush forward and he’s very good at snatching a leg of a kick or with a quick single. Roberts does need to stick and move for sure but watch his fights he ALWAYS ends up fighting in close range at some point.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

Parlay just to show where I stand on the bets:

#1) Sport : UFC Fighting
Selection : D. Till 3/16/2019 2:40PM - (PST) Money Line -230 for Game

#2) Sport : UFC Fighting
Selection : G. Nelson 3/16/2019 2:20PM - (PST) Money Line +120 for Game

#3) Sport : UFC Fighting
Selection : N. Wood 3/16/2019 2:10PM - (PST) Money Line -310 for Game

#4) Sport : UFC Fighting
Selection : D. Roberts/C. Silva 3/16/2019 1:40PM - (PST) Total Points OVER 1½ -140 for Game

#5) Sport : UFC Fighting
Selection : J. Marshman 3/16/2019 1:10PM - (PST) Money Line -140 for Game

#6) Sport : UFC Fighting
Selection : J. Rinaldi 3/16/2019 12:50PM - (PST) Money Line +120 for Game

#7) Sport : UFC Fighting
Selection : I. Heinisch 3/16/2019 11:35AM - (PST) Money Line -105 for Game

#8) Sport : UFC Fighting
Selection : D. Ige 3/16/2019 11:05AM - (PST) Money Line -135 for Game

Risking : 22.00 To Win : 1,996.09 USD

Basketball - 634 Duke -360 for Game
Basketball - 637 Oregon -125 for Game
MMA - 24001 Jorge Masvidal/Darren Till O 4½ -130 for Game
MMA - 24010 Dominick Reyes -240 for Game
MMA - 24030 Joe Duffy -182 for Game
MMA - 24037 Ian Heinisch +100 for Game
MMA - 24046 Molly McCann -182 for Gam

[PaperTrail07]

I'm your man for it BUT need to finish paying hugO for a bet we made a card or so ago....

Paper- I was going to ask if you wanted to put some points on the Breese fight? I still owe you a butt kicking for Daley even though we never put anything on it.

[PaperTrail07]

Love it Tailing you on Oregon....Check this first half bet out...............
NCAA Basketball
Selection :

Oregon/Washington 3/16/2019 7:30PM - (PST) ..

Total Points OVER 52

-147 for 1st Half
Lets get it

Basketball - 634 Duke -360 for Game
Basketball - 637 Oregon -125 for Game
MMA - 24001 Jorge Masvidal/Darren Till O 4½ -130 for Game
MMA - 24010 Dominick Reyes -240 for Game
MMA - 24030 Joe Duffy -182 for Game
MMA - 24037 Ian Heinisch +100 for Game
MMA - 24046 Molly McCann -182 for Gam

[The HOFF]

Im thinking about loading up on Silva as well. He needs one little leg, and then he slams you hard into the ground. And youre not going up after that. Wise choice. Excellent line on Grundy as well. I like that youre going hard on the underdogs. Punish the bookies when their mistaken!!

Trying to cap this one right now. I'm leaning towards a bet on da Silva.

[PaperTrail07]

true but he only seems to get cornered and "bite down on his mouthpiece" and swing in the pocket when the faster guy cuts him off....like Perry...I just need him to hang in there....and I see what you mean w silva...the guy is skilled....but also pretty predictable IMO....he Roberts let him catch a kick or something and it goes to the ground,,,,yeah its over....Roberts could also dance dance dance and Silva just get slower....we will see.....I don't see any reason to go wild betting Silva either but im only on the over 1.5......you big on Silva here?.

Silva’s striking isn’t as fast or crisp that’s for sure, but Silva is actually decently quick himself. He is kind of a burst fighter where he will just rush forward and he’s very good at snatching a leg of a kick or with a quick single. Roberts does need to stick and move for sure but watch his fights he ALWAYS ends up fighting in close range at some point.

[bjpenn85]

Trying to cap this one right now. I'm leaning towards a bet on da Silva.

Breese is out, pressure on home turf may have got the best of him?

[The HOFF]

Breese is out, pressure on home turf may have got the best of him?

Damn it! Now is when I force bets because I don't have much action after this gets cancelled.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

Love it Tailing you on Oregon....Check this first half bet out...............
NCAA Basketball
Selection :

Oregon/Washington 3/16/2019 7:30PM - (PST) ..

Total Points OVER 52

-147 for 1st Half
Lets get it

oregon is red hot right now...

WOW, that first half over 52 looks too good to be true? I'd be tempted to bet ANY 2 teams over 52 for a half...good find bruh

[The HOFF]

Trying to have some discipline. Pass on Silva/Roberts for me.

[PaperTrail07]

I saw that total and about SHIT myself LOL..........and agree....they are and the 52 should be about 61 IMO so taking a chance at this one

oregon is red hot right now...

WOW, that first half over 52 looks too good to be true? I'd be tempted to bet ANY 2 teams over 52 for a half...good find bruh

[PaperTrail07]

that MF knew he was going out cold GOD DAMMIT......that was one of the better fights on the card...

Breese is out, pressure on home turf may have got the best of him?

[PaperTrail07]

Are doctors not clearing these fighters? How in the hell does Whittaker get rushing into "emergency" surgery for a hernia, now this WTF is going on?

[bjpenn85]

Are doctors not clearing these fighters? How in the hell does Whittaker get rushing into "emergency" surgery for a hernia, now this WTF is going on?

Fighters can easily hold back information + fighters are not doctors, but the weight cut probably fakks a lot of fighters up physically and mentally. Sucks, i really wanted to see this fight.