UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Volkov (March 17, 2018)

[Pinoy-T-X]

*ARBITRAGE ALERT*

MANUWA -199 (BETONLINE)

BLACHOWICZ +310 (5dimes)

https://www.bestfightodds.com/#

[Hugo de Naranja]

https://www.bestfightodds.com/#

This is a typo on BFO. Blach is only (+165) right now

[Pinoy-T-X]

This is a typo on BFO. Blach is only (+165) right now

Fudge!

[turbozed]

*ARBITRAGE ALERT*

MANUWA -199 (BETONLINE)

BLACHOWICZ +310 (5dimes)

That seems to be some sort of BFO error.

On 5Dimes itself Blach is like a +160 or +170 dog.

[turbozed]

He fought mostly low to mid level fighters on the Regional Scene and was not much of a roundwinner. His TDD also looked abysmal in the fights I watched. I expect Philips to be a dog here and might look to play him ITD or something like that. I don't think you're missing anything. Phillips is an exciting but very stylistically limited fighter as of now. I'd like to see him in there against someone like Gokhan Saki.

Since you mentioned you like Phillips ITD, how likely do you think it is that he can land something big? It looks like Phillips' game is predicated on having an opponent that stands still exactly at his range to take a huge punch from him.

Phillips' TDD is atrocious. I'm not sure which is a bigger factor in that: the fact that he's always coming forward throwing hooks at 100% power, or perhaps the fact that he has the upper body of a LHW but the lower body of a lightweight. At even odds, I'm having a hard time stopping myself from making a multiple unit play on Byrd here.

I don't even know if I'd care to hedge Phillips KO or Rd1 since I imagine those would be +1xx. Byrd doesn't stand in the pocket long enough where it seems likely he eats a home run.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Since you mentioned you like Phillips ITD, how likely do you think it is that he can land something big? It looks like Phillips' game is predicated on having an opponent that stands still exactly at his range to take a huge punch from him.

Phillips' TDD is atrocious. I'm not sure which is a bigger factor in that: the fact that he's always coming forward throwing hooks at 100% power, or perhaps the fact that he has the upper body of a LHW but the lower body of a lightweight. At even odds, I'm having a hard time stopping myself from making a multiple unit play on Byrd here.

I don't even know if I'd care to hedge Phillips KO or Rd1 since I imagine those would be +1xx. Byrd doesn't stand in the pocket long enough where it seems likely he eats a home run.

I ended up parlaying Phillips+Byrd WGD/Werdum at like (+140) for 3.75u. I think Byrd has poor fight IQ and doesn’t really know where he wants a fight. If this fight stays standing, I feel pretty good about Phillips stopping Byrd. If Byrd gets Phillips down (as he should) I think he has a pretty good chance to submit him. Either way I see this fight ending ITD and was glad to get it as a parlay piece at the (-180) opener.

[turbozed]

I ended up parlaying Phillips+Byrd WGD/Werdum at like (+140) for 3.75u. I think Byrd has poor fight IQ and doesn’t really know where he wants a fight. If this fight stays standing, I feel pretty good about Phillips stopping Byrd. If Byrd gets Phillips down (as he should) I think he has a pretty good chance to submit him. Either way I see this fight ending ITD and was glad to get it as a parlay piece at the (-180) opener.

This makes a lot of sense to me. I was looking at the Byrd sub line but looks like it's down to +360 (was +500 at some euro book yesterday).

Ended up hitting Phillips Rd1 as a hedge instead of KO since it pays out almost double. Phillips did finish Ward in Rd2 but Ward was 0-0 and was gassed and standing completely still for like half a minute before getting KO'd.

[Thrilla]

19:10 min.
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[Thrilla]

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[Thrilla]

High stake high confidence play on the first bout.

Haqparast ml. Too bad it got bet down. Maybe il sprinkle some more if the odds rise. Haqparast better everywhere, against a short notice fighter in Narimani.

Jibbbys MMA Mania donks wrong here again. Several reasons not to pick Narimani mentioned in write-up, yet the fool picks Narimani. WTF!

[Shagdogy]

High stake high confidence play on the first bout.

Haqparast ml. Too bad it got bet down. Maybe il sprinkle some more if the odds rise. Haqparast better everywhere, against a short notice fighter in Narimani.

Jibbbys MMA Mania donks wrong here again. Several reasons not to pick Narimani mentioned in write-up, yet the fool picks Narimani. WTF!

I am with you on Haqparast. I think Narimani relies on motor and strength and he's coming into this fight on 4 days notice and up a weight class. Not a good spot.

[Shagdogy]

I try not to be this way, but sometimes it's not so far fetched... Narimani has added a lot of chest and back acne since his last few fights... if he motors and controls the bigger fighter on 4 days notice I won't be able to help but wonder...

[Richard Clock]

I am with you on Haqparast. I think Narimani relies on motor and strength and he's coming into this fight on 4 days notice and up a weight class. Not a good spot.

I agree here, but do you think there is any play here that has value at this point? I think the line for ML and ITD for Haq is fairly sharp, maybe he surprises with a submission? Wondering if they are going to realease a handicap for the fights...

[Thrilla]

I agree here, but do you think there is any play here that has value at this point? I think the line for ML and ITD for Haq is fairly sharp, maybe he surprises with a submission? Wondering if they are going to realease a handicap for the fights...

Says in interview.
He is going for a finish this time. Mistake not to vs Held.

[Thrilla]

I try not to be this way, but sometimes it's not so far fetched... Narimani has added a lot of chest and back acne since his last few fights... if he motors and controls the bigger fighter on 4 days notice I won't be able to help but wonder...

Sharp eyes.
Noticed that aswell, didnt connect it to a performance enhancer.

[Shagdogy]

I agree here, but do you think there is any play here that has value at this point? I think the line for ML and ITD for Haq is fairly sharp, maybe he surprises with a submission? Wondering if they are going to realease a handicap for the fights...

I don't mind -160 for Haqparast ML and will likely play it straight.

[Richard Clock]

I don't mind -160 for Haqparast ML and will likely play it straight.

I lean on the side of Haq getting the finish a little more often than the odds indicate, but maybe not often enough for me to consider a bet. The Haq by decision prop seems a little overpriced, which is why I am shying away from the ML. Perhaps I am undervaluing Nad's durability, but the size and technique advantage of Haq combined with both fighters' aggressiveness leads me to believe that Haq finishes this fight often, if he does win.

[Teem]

Speaking of short notice... I'm having a hard time being confident in picking Ray on short notice over Johnson...

[turbozed]

I might be the only one who's not very keen on Nasrat. His best fight is a losing performance was against Held whose own best performance was beating Nasrat.

Nas's record is very padded fighting guys with 0 wins for like 4 years. He's only comfortable striking from one side (his left). We have not seen him against a competent striker yet who is looking for this tendency.

If he shows up looking good, it's because he's young and improving. But that takes a small leap of faith.

[Teem]

Hasn't Nad been at TAM for the past few months too? That's what I heard.

[Richard Clock]

I might be the only one who's not very keen on Nasrat. His best fight is a losing performance was against Held whose own best performance was beating Nasrat.

Nas's record is very padded fighting guys with 0 wins for like 4 years. He's only comfortable striking from one side (his left). We have not seen him against a competent striker yet who is looking for this tendency.

If he shows up looking good, it's because he's young and improving. But that takes a small leap of faith.

I battled with this as well. I find the FightMatrix Quality Perf % to be somewhat useful in determining a fighter's consistency and strength of competition over his entire career. Nasrat's QP is currently at 20%, which indicates that his strength of competition outside of the UFC was very poor. This was initially worrisome, but I have come away more impressed in Nasrat's loss to Held than Nad's last 3 wins, 2 of which were to limited lower level guys. Held is a brilliant grappler and had to work really, really hard to get Nasrat down and to keep him there, and Nasrat still showed good ability to get back to his feet and defend takedowns. Nad doesn't have that same craft as a grappler to dictate the style of this fight, and he won't have the size and strength advantages he had moving up a weight class. I came away very suspect of Nad's grappling vs Daniel Requeijo, as he routinely forced ill-advised takedowns and was swept by Req off his back. He also left his neck exposed, but Req didn't quite have the strength and athletic juice to even threaten with it. I also think you may be overestimating Nad's striking and ability to expose the holes in Nasrat's striking game. Nad's striking defense was truly awful against Requeijo, who was fairly limited as a striker, yet still landed cleanly routinely. Nad looked a little more composed on his feet vs Pimlett, but I don't think Pimlett offered much to Nad as a striker. Nasrat has better footwork, more diverse striking, and lands with more power than Nad's last few opponents, even if Nasrat still has his own holes as a striker. I also think Nasrat's age and training at very good camps leads me to believe he will be taking nice improvements in his abilities each time we see him. Tristar gym seemed to be very high on this kid, and you can see why.

[Richard Clock]

Hasn't Nad been at TAM for the past few months too? That's what I heard.

I saw him in a Youtube video wrestling with Sage and Faber, but I am not sure if he is training there full time.

[Pinoy-T-X]

Parlay of
Ankalaev & Haqparast
Is my only bet.

GL gents

[Sanity Check]

So weird to watch Duquesnoy's past fights and not have Joe Rogan butcher his last name.

Since when did UFC commentators begin pronouncing pplz names correctly?

[Shagdogy]

Parlay of
Ankalaev & Haqparast
Is my only bet.

GL gents

Ended up playing it this way as well. Saved 0.5 unit to add Ankalaev.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Parlay of
Ankalaev & Haqparast
Is my only bet.

GL gents

Best of luck sir!

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC Fight Night 127: Werdum vs. Volkov Picks:
Nasrat Haqparast Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Dmitriy Sosnovskiy Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Stevie Ray Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
Magomed Ankalaev Round 1 KO (Punches)
Hakeem Dawodu Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
Danny Roberts Split Decision (29-28 x2, 28-29)
Charles Byrd Round 1 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Peter Sobotta Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)
Tom Duquesnoy Unanimous Decision (30-27 x2, 29-28)
Jan Blachowicz Round 2 TKO (Punches)
Fabricio Werdum Unanimous Decision (50-45 x2, 49-46)

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC Fight Night 127: Werdum vs. Volkov

Fight Pass Prelims:

Fight #1: Haqparast vs. Narimani (DEBUT)
Haqparast ITD (+256) 1u

Fight #2: Sosnovskiy (DEBUT) vs. Godbeer
Sosnovskiy ITD (-108) 1.62u to win 1.5u

Fight #3: Ray vs. Johnson
Ray+Johnson Goes Distance (-120) 1.2u to win 1u
Ray -3.5 (+130) .5u

Fight #4: Ankalaev (DEBUT) vs. Craig
Craig Submission (+1200) .75u

Fight #5: Dawodu (DEBUT) vs. Henry
Dawodu -3.5 (-125) .625u to win .5u
Dawodu Decision (+168) .5u

Fight #6: Roberts vs. Enkamp
Enkamp ITD (+350) 1u
Enkamp KO/TKO (+650) .5u

Fight #7: Byrd (DEBUT) vs. Phillips (DEBUT)
Byrd Submission (+376) 1u

Hedge(s):
Phillips Round 1 (+335) 1u
Phillips Submission (+1050) .25u

Main Card:

Fight #8: Sobotta vs. Edwards
Sobotta (+180) 2u
Sobotta Decision (+391) 1u
Sobotta KO/TKO (+960) .5u

Fight #9: Duquesnoy vs. Ware
Duquesnoy+Ware Goes Distance (+100) 1.5u

Fight #10: Manuwa vs. Blachowicz
Blachowicz (+175) 1u
Blachowicz Scorecards = No Action (+203) 1u
Blachowicz ITD (+442) .5u
Blachowicz KO/TKO (+1050) .5u
Blachowicz Round 2 (+1450) .5u

Fight #11: Werdum vs. Volkov
Werdum+Volkov Goes Distance (+210) 1u
Werdum Unanimous Decision (+475) .5u
Werdum KO/TKO (+725) .75u

Hedge:
Volkov Decision (+610) 1u

Straight Parlays:
Sosnovskiy/Werdum (+111) 1u
Ankalaev+Craig Under 1.5/Dawodu (+126) 2u
Phillips+Byrd Won’t Go Distance/Werdum (+140) 3.75u

Prop Parlays:
Ankalaev -3.5/Phillips+Byrd Under 1.5 (+135) 1u
Ankalaev KO/Dawodu -3.5/Roberts (+342) .25u
Manuwa+Blachowicz Under 2.5/Werdum+Volkov Goes Distance (+430) .25u
Haqparast/Sosnovskiy+Godbeer Under 1.5/Ray Decision (+660) .25u
Byrd/Duquesnoy Decision/Sobotta (+970) .25u

Full Card Props:
Over 5.5 Fights Go Distance (+124) 1.25u
Over 6.5 Fights Go Distance (+338) .5u
No Fights End in Submission (+519) .5u
Over 7.5 Fights Go Distance (+1017) .25u

Multi-Event Parlays:
None

[Pinoy-T-X]

Best of luck sir!

Thank you, Hugo.
BOL to you too, sir.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Haqparast vs. Narimani has been cancelled. WTF.

https://twitter.com/mma_kings?lang=en

[Pinoy-T-X]

Haqparast vs. Narimani has been cancelled. WTF.

https://twitter.com/mma_kings?lang=en

that sucks!

[Hugo de Naranja]

Sounds like Haqparast got Pink Eye

[JC2008]

Does anyone have a good stream for the Fight Pass prelims?

[Shagdogy]

Sounds like Haqparast got Pink Eye

whaaaaaaat? cmon.

[Thrilla]

Motherf*ckers Haqparast was the only and best play.