UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Volkov (March 17, 2018)

[Sanity Check]

I lost about $300 on this event.

$200 on Hakeem Dawudo and $100 on Oliver Enkamp.

Good learning experience despite the negatives.

I didn't want to give Volkov the credit he deserves, good thing about MMA, you can actually force people to recognize your value by winning your fights. That must be a plus in the job satisfaction category.

[JIBBBY]

Kind of an unrelated note, but i saw that fool Gabe's (who used to post on this forum) twitter account and he presents himself as a profitable MMA tout, and I just found it really funny. I think I remember him begging for money on here and just being an overall huge degenrate. I think he laid almost 8 to 1 on Ankaleav for several units yesterday and it just makes me happy.

I think I remember he was exposed on this forum for living in his mom's basement and being broke and in debt a few years ago.. I think that was Gabe if I remember correctly?.. Someone posted up court documents concerning Gabe also as he was in some kind of legal trouble..

Touts are all broke.. If they were good at sports gambling they'd never need to go tout in the first place..

[Hugo de Naranja]

Kind of an unrelated note, but i saw that fool Gabe's (who used to post on this forum) twitter account and he presents himself as a profitable MMA tout, and I just found it really funny. I think I remember him begging for money on here and just being an overall huge degenrate. I think he laid almost 8 to 1 on Ankaleav for several units yesterday and it just makes me happy.

Is that Gabe Killian?

[Richard Clock]

Is that Gabe Killian?

Yes, he writes for OddsBreaker along with another fraud tout Luca Fury, who also posted on here.

[Richard Clock]

I think I remember he was exposed on this forum for living in his mom's basement and being broke and in debt a few years ago.. I think that was Gabe if I remember correctly?.. Someone posted up court documents concerning Gabe also as he was in some kind of legal trouble..

Touts are all broke.. If they were good at sports gambling they'd never need to go tout in the first place..

I remember parts of that drama, but must have missed the real good stuff after I stopped posting on here the first time. He always really seemed really shady and pathetic. How naive and desperate must you be to rely on anything that fraud says?

[Hugo de Naranja]

Yes, he writes for OddsBreaker along with another fraud tout Luca Fury, who also posted on here.

In related news...

http://www.foxnews.com/food-drink/2018/02/28/la-restaurateur-threatens-to-knock-yelp-user-into-unconsciousness-over-bad-review.html

[Sanity Check]

Yes, he writes for OddsBreaker along with another fraud tout Luca Fury, who also posted on here.

That's one of the reasons why I never post picks anywhere.

If I was winning and doing well, people like that would probably be lurking in here tailing me.

[JIBBBY]

All the old SBR players are still on oddsbeast forum posting as I checked.. There is a couple legit MMA cappers from what I can tell that usually start the threads but we still got it better over here on SBR.. I know some of those old SBR PRO's are missing the bet points deal..

Pride is a bitch!!! Sheep followed their leader over there once I bounced Nunyabidness. It's too bad..

This little SBR MMA section produces more often then not though.. We all get it done!!!!

http://oddsb.com/forum/index.php?forums/gambling-and-betting-forum.3/

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC Fight Night 127: Werdum vs. Volkov Picks:
Nasrat Haqparast Round 1 TKO (Punches) -> Fight Cancelled
Dmitriy Sosnovskiy Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Stevie Ray Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
Magomed Ankalaev Round 1 KO (Punches)
Hakeem Dawodu Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
Danny Roberts Split Decision (29-28 x2, 28-29)
Charles Byrd Round 1 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Peter Sobotta Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)
Tom Duquesnoy Unanimous Decision (30-27 x2, 29-28)
Jan Blachowicz Round 2 TKO (Punches)
Fabricio Werdum Unanimous Decision (50-45 x2, 49-46)

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC Fight Night 127: Werdum vs. Volkov

Fight Pass Prelims:

Fight #1: Haqparast vs. Narimani (DEBUT)
Haqparast ITD (+256) +0u

Result: Fight Cancelled
Fight: +0u
Card: +0u

Fight #2: Sosnovskiy (DEBUT) vs. Godbeer
Sosnovskiy ITD (-108) +1.5u

Result: Dmitriy Sosnovskiy Round 2 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Fight: +1.5u
Card: +1.5u

Fight #3: Ray vs. Johnson
Ray+Johnson Goes Distance (-120) +1u
Ray -3.5 (+130) -.5u

Result: Kajan Johnson Split Decision (29-28 x2, 28-29)
Fight: +0.5u
Card: +2u

Fight #4: Ankalaev (DEBUT) vs. Craig
Craig Submission (+1200) +9u

Result: Paul Craig Round 3 Submission (Triangle Choke)
Fight: +9u
Card: +11u

Fight #5: Dawodu (DEBUT) vs. Henry
Dawodu -3.5 (-125) -.625u
Dawodu Decision (+168) -.5u

Result: Danny Henry Round 1 Technical Submission (Standing Guillotine Choke)
Fight: -1.125u
Card: +9.875u

Fight #6: Roberts vs. Enkamp
Enkamp ITD (+350) -1u
Enkamp KO/TKO (+650) -.5u

Result: Danny Roberts Round 1 KO (Punch)
Fight: -1.5u
Card: +8.375u

Fight #7: Byrd (DEBUT) vs. Phillips (DEBUT)
Byrd Submission (+376) +3.76u

Hedge(s):
Phillips Round 1 (+335) -1u
Phillips Submission (+1050) -.25u

Result: Charles Byrd Round 1 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Fight: +2.51u
Card: +10.885u

Main Card:

Fight #8: Sobotta vs. Edwards
Sobotta (+180) -2u
Sobotta Decision (+391) -1u
Sobotta KO/TKO (+960) -.5u

Result: Leon Edwards Round 3 TKO (Punches)
Fight: -3.5u
Card: +7.385u

Fight #9: Duquesnoy vs. Ware
Duquesnoy+Ware Goes Distance (+100) +1.5u

Added:
Duquesnoy KO/TKO (+285) -.5u

Result: Tom Duquesnoy Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28 x2)
Fight: +1u
Card: +8.385u

Fight #10: Manuwa vs. Blachowicz
Blachowicz (+175) +1.75u
Blachowicz Scorecards = No Action (+203) +0u
Blachowicz ITD (+442) -.5u
Blachowicz KO/TKO (+1050) -.5u
Blachowicz Round 2 (+1450) -.5u

Added:
Blachowicz Decision (+360) +2.7u

Result: Jan Blachowicz Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28 x2)
Fight: +2.95u
Card: +11.335u

Fight #11: Werdum vs. Volkov
Werdum+Volkov Goes Distance (+210) -1u
Werdum Unanimous Decision (+475) -.5u
Werdum KO/TKO (+725) -.75u

Hedge:
Volkov Decision (+610) -1u

Added Hedge:
Volkov KO/TKO (+409) +4.09u

Result: Alexander Volkov Round 4 KO (Punches and Elbow)
Fight: +0.84u
Card: +12.175u

Straight Parlays:
Sosnovskiy/Werdum (+111) -1u
Ankalaev+Craig Under 1.5/Dawodu (+126) -2u
Phillips+Byrd Won’t Go Distance/Werdum (+140) -3.75u

Results: See Above
Fights: -6.75u
Card: +5.425u

Prop Parlays:
Ankalaev -3.5/Phillips+Byrd Under 1.5 (+135) -1u
Ankalaev KO/Dawodu -3.5/Roberts (+342) -.25u
Manuwa+Blachowicz Under 2.5/Werdum+Volkov Goes Distance (+430) -.25u
Haqparast/Sosnovskiy+Godbeer Under 1.5/Ray Decision (+660) -.25u
Byrd/Sobotta/Duquesnoy Decision (+970) -.25u

Results: See Above
Fights: -2u
Card: +3.425u

Live Betting:
Manuwa+Blachowicz Goes Distance (+220) +2.2u
Manuwa (+240) -.5u

Results: See Above
Fights: +1.7u
Card: +5.125u

Full Card Props:
Over 5.5 Fights Go Distance (+124) +0u
Over 6.5 Fights Go Distance (+338) +0u
No Fights End in Submission (+519) +0u
Over 7.5 Fights Go Distance (+1017) +0u

FOTN: Manuwa+Blachowicz
POTN: Volkov, Craig
Fastest Submission: Henry R1 (0:39)
Fastest KO: Roberts R1 (2:12)
Decisions: 3
Results: Cancelled due to Haqparast+Narimani Cancellation
Fights: +0u
Final Card Total = +5.125u

[Hugo de Naranja]

With all the upsets I didn't do well on picks but still booked a little over 5u profit. Thanks Paul Craig!

[JIBBBY]

With all the upsets I didn't do well on picks but still booked a little over 5u profit. Thanks Paul Craig!

Nice Hugo.. You profited and that's always good...

[Shagdogy]

Fight Night 127 Bets

Byrd -115, 1.5u
Byrd by sub +450, .25u

Blachowicz KO/TKO +700, .25u
Blachowicz Round 2 +1400, .25u

Werdum/Dawodu/Ankalaev +145, 1u
Duquesnoy/Dawodu -130, 1.3u
Blachowicz/Ankalaev +190, 1u

Strange card from a betting standpoint. Some interesting fights. Hoping to see some interesting stuff from prospects. Pissed Haqparast fight is off. That sucks.

Lost an additional 2.5u on two Dawodu parlays (1u each) that I added after the Ankalaev loss, and God/Sos under 1.5 (.5u).

I lost my ass this event. Somehow the total doesn't come out quite as bad as I thought as the event was going on... the Ankalaev and Dawodu losses, no more than 10 mins apart, were two brutal gut punches. Killed every parlay I had, and even more after I chased like a dummy.

Card Total: 2-8, -3.87u

YTD: 35-36, +9.16u

Event Total: 5-4

[turbozed]

With all the upsets I didn't do well on picks but still booked a little over 5u profit. Thanks Paul Craig!

The fact that you can profit on a card like this one shows that you have a good process going. Those hedges and props really help to limit variance even when things don't go as planned.

I had about 2.5u in parlays between Ankalaev and Dawodu, and I decided to put down $20 each (my limit) on Craig submission and on Henry submission props (which total is like under 0.1u) and it returned close to 1u back for me. Prevented me from having a big losing night. The fact that I would've had a profitable night if I had just increased those hedges to even just 0.2u each makes me think I should really try to get better at playing them.

There's quite a long break until the next UFC event but there's an Invicta card coming up soon which I've already taken a bit of time to look at so I'll go ahead and start a thread for that.

[turbozed]

Lost an additional 2.5u on two Dawodu parlays (1u each) that I added after the Ankalaev loss, and God/Sos under 1.5 (.5u).

I lost my ass this event. Somehow the total doesn't come out quite as bad as I thought as the event was going on... the Ankalaev and Dawodu losses, no more than 10 mins apart, were two brutal gut punches. Killed every parlay I had, and even more after I chased like a dummy.

Card Total: 2-8, -3.87u

YTD: 35-36, +9.16u

Event Total: 5-4

Looks like we lost our first consensus picks in Ankalaev and Werdum. Had to happen eventually. Blachowicz came through but you missed that bet by the 1s miracle bad-beat. I also contemplated adding some straight ML bets to Ankalaev but luckily ended up not doing it.

The fact that I had another bet lose at the very last second of the fight on the SAME CARD (I had Edwards by Decision) by a somewhat bullshit stoppage still boggles my mind. I'm just glad I slept through that part of the card or I think I would've lost it.