Hugo, what do you think of Phillips's quality of competition and TDD? I felt very ready to fade him on account of his horrendous TDD and getups until I rewatched Byrd and remembered that he rarely shoots single or double leg TDs but wades into the clinch instead where he will face Phillips's striking in the pocket all the way in. Even still, it really seems to me like Phillips just simply isn't UFC level with his grappling game at all. Am I missing something?
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He fought mostly low to mid level fighters on the Regional Scene and was not much of a roundwinner. His TDD also looked abysmal in the fights I watched. I expect Philips to be a dog here and might look to play him ITD or something like that. I don't think you're missing anything. Phillips is an exciting but very stylistically limited fighter as of now. I'd like to see him in there against someone like Gokhan Saki.Comment -
I noticed against Charlie Ward he benefited from a very quick ref standup in round 2 that helped lead to his finish. And then again in his most recent fight he did not earn his way back to the feet after a TD. He got stood up when his opponent's finger came out of his glove and they restarted on the feet. Two KO wins where he was taken down exceptionally easily and then didn't earn his way back to the feet.
Byrd has never been KO'd. He needs to take a page out of Couture vs. James Toney and shoot an ankle pick TD and just get this fight on the mat ASAP. There's no indication that Phillips can stop any TDs shot at his hips and below.Comment -
Event is 5 days out with no odds. Well, odds on only 3 fights which is a bit abnormal. Usually we have full odds around 7 days out.
Wonder if books are losing money on MMA events & changing up their procedure.Comment -
Lots of intriguing prospects on this card based on what I've researched so far. Sos/Godbeer is particularly intriguing because Sos is such a specimen, but mostly an unknown: hasn't fought since May 2015, and almost all of his fights (with the exception of Aleksander Emelianeko, perhaps) have been against scrubs that he has made quick work of. There's not a whole lot of information available about him online, but I know he has trained or still trains with Oleksiy Oliynyk. I didn't see a whole lot of composure and craft in his last few fights, just essentially putting his head down and trying to get in the clinch, where he is brutally strong. However, I tend to think a competent HW that has any sort of athletic acuity and doesn't completely panic if he finds himself on his back will be able to handle Sos. There is also a question of Sos' cardio, considering just how large and muscular he is. I would have been much more willing to put action on Sos' original opponent Ledet dependent upon the odds, because Ledet is a more malleable fighter and much more athetically gifted than Godbeer. I don't think Sos will have any difficultly getting Godbeer down (Godbeer has shown some very poor TDD), unless Godbeer cracks him on the way in, but I do think Godbeer has shown decent defensive BJJ off his back and has shown a decent ability to get back up to his feet. Still, I think Godbeer is so athletically limited and limited in the amount of different pathways to victory that I am not sure if a wager on him is appealing.Comment -
Looks like Edwards and Duquensoy both opened at -225 on UK books. Haven't really looked into Edwards/Dobotta, but that sounds about right for Fire Kid/Ware.Comment -
Duquesnoy/Ware and Sobotta/Edwards lines are out.
Werdum is back down to -190.
Blachowicz KO paying out +900Comment -
Euro people saying Ankalaev is -185 range and Matshman is +175. Both of those would be insta plays for me.
I wanted to wait to see both Marshman and Scott on the scale at 170, but with Scott dropping down and on late notice it's hard to think Marshman will have the rougher cut.
And Ankalaev... he's gonna put Craig out on the mat.Comment -
Currently on 5D
Marshman -260
Dawodu -350Comment -
MMA mania write ups...
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205 lbs.: Paul Craig vs. Magomed Ankalaev
Paul Craig (9-2) followed up his submission of Irish prospect Karl Moore and subsequent defeat of Marcin Lazarz for the BAMMA Light Heavyweight title by submitting unbeaten Luis Henrique in his Octagon debut, earning a “Performance of the Night” bonus for his efforts. Subsequent fights with Tyron Pedro and Khalil Rountree proved a tad more disastrous, though, as both men brutalized “The Bearjew” inside of one round.
Eight of his nine professional wins have come by submission, the ninth by (technical) knockout.
Dagestan’s Magomed Ankalaev (10-0) caught Bloody Elbow’s eye just three fights into his professional career and has since continued to impress on the Russian circuit. His current three-fight knockout streak includes finishes of veteran Maxim Grishin and two-time UFC competitor Wagner Prado.
He will give up two inches of height to the 6’4” Scotsman.
Ankalaev really looks like a top prospect. Though he still has some trouble with volume when his opponents don’t give him countering opportunities, he’s got serious stopping power in his hands, bone-crushing ground-and-pound and solid overall wrestling. Best of all, he’s only 25, meaning he’s got plenty of time to grow.
Craig’s grappling is for real, but unfortunately, the rest of his game just isn’t there. His striking and wrestling are way too lacking for him to impose his will on quality light heavyweights. He’s not going to be able to handle Ankalaev on the feet or take him down, and if Ankalaev decides to play Craig’s game and take him down instead, the Dagestani’s ground striking is terrifying. In short, Ankalaev steadily breaks him down on the feet before pounding him out in the second.
Prediction: Ankalaev via second-round technical knockout
155 lbs.: Stevie Ray vs. Kajan Johnson (22-12-1)
Scotland’s Stevie Ray (21-7) won five of his fist six UFC bouts in impressive fashion, including a bonus-winning knockout of Leonardo Mafra and decisions over veterans Ross Pearson and Joe Lauzon. Fellow banger Paul Felder proved a tougher nut to crack, though, dispatching Ray with ground-and-pound in Glasgow.
He steps in for Rustam Khabilov on around one month’s notice.
Kajan Johnson (22-12-1) unsuccessful run on The Ultimate Fighter (TUF): “Nations” didn’t stop him from winning two of his first three UFC bouts. After a two-year hiatus, he returned in Sept. 2017 to knockout Adriano Martins in Edmonton.
“Ragin” has submitted eight professional opponents and (T)KO’d another seven.
I firmly believe Martins could have smashed the bejeezus out of Johnson if he had just been a little more active. Johnson — skilled as he is — lacks the durability to survive prolonged exchanges. Unfortunately for him, Ray is a very willing striker who is as sharp or sharper than his Canadian foe.
Johnson has neither the firepower to overwhelm Ray on the feet nor the wrestling prowess to drag him out of his element and finish him on the ground. Ray holds his own in the stand up for about 1.5 rounds before finally finding the mark with something dramatic.
Prediction: Ray via second-round knockout
265 lbs.: Mark Godbeer vs. Dmitry Sosnovskiy
Mark Godbeer (13-3) — after a submission loss to Justin Ledet in his UFC debut — proved he was more than just an awesome name with a decision over Daniel Spitz last March. Things took a turn for the bizarre in his next fight, however, as Walt Harris kicked him in the face while the referee was pausing the action because of a low blow, resulting in a disqualification win for Godbeer.
Ten of his 13 victories have come via (technical) knockout within two rounds.
The 10 victories for Dmitry Sosnovskiy (10-0) include five (technical) knockouts, two submissions via choke, and forcing Aleksander Emelianenko to tap to strikes in 2014. UFC twice tried to book him against Justin Ledet, but the fight fell through each time.
He replaces the injured (and now released) Dmitry Pobrezhets on short notice in his first fight since May 2015.
Godbeer is legitimately powerful and boatloads of fun against opponents either willing to exchange with him or unable to take him down. Sosnovskiy is neither. The Russian’s only goal is to take his opponent down as quickly as possible before moving to mount/the back and punching away. He doesn’t so much strike as move his arms in various directions while charging forward.
Godbeer could certainly tear him up on the feet if Sosnovskiy can’t drag him down early or burns himself out looking for the finish, but the Brit has not shown stout enough takedown defense to survive the early onslaught. Sosnovskiy scores an early takedown, moves to a dominant position, and drops punches until the ref steps in.
Prediction: Sosnovskiy via first-round technical knockout
185 lbs.: John Phillips vs. Charles Byrd
John Phillips (21-6) has racked up 18 (technical) knockout victories since first entering the cage in 2005. “The White Mike Tyson” (yes, really) joins Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) having won six of his last seven, winning the BAMMA Middleweight belt along the way.
This will be his first fight since Sept. 2016 and the third time he’s been booked to debut, as injuries to Phillips scuttled fights with Marcos Rogerio de Lima and Eryk Anders.
Charles Byrd (9-4) submitted Jamie Pickett on the inaugural episode of Dana White’s “Tuesday Night Contender Series” and, though he didn’t get the contract, was invited back for episode six. There, he showed his finishing skills once again with a second-round tapout of late replacement Randall Wallace to earn a shot in the Octagon.
His seven finishes are split 4:3 between submissions and knockouts.
One would think that after almost 13 years in the game, Phillips would have developed any kind of mixed martial arts (MMA) game outside his sheer power. One would be incorrect. He wings haymakers until he either knocks out his opponent or gets taken down, after which he generally doesn’t get up. Hell, the man was getting repeatedly taken down by Charlie Ward in the latter’s professional debut until a referee stand up gave him the opportunity to drop the hammer.
Unfortunately for Phillips, Byrd is both faster than him and a very capable grappler. Unless Phillips’ move to SBG has produced monumental results, expect Byrd to take him down early and choke him out soon after.
Prediction: Byrd via first-round submission
170 lbs.: Danny Roberts vs. Oliver Enkamp
Danny Roberts (14-3) put his knockout loss to Mike Perry behind him with a drubbing of Bobby Nash, raising his UFC record to 3-1. Late replacement Nordine Taleb had no interest in letting him reclaim his momentum, though, putting him away in just 59 seconds with a nasty head kick and follow-up right hand.
Though taller than Oliver Enkamp (7-1) by one inch, he will give up three inches of reach.
Less than two months after his first career knockout victory, Enkamp stepped up on short notice to face the aforementioned Taleb in his native Stockholm. Home-field advantage wasn’t enough to save the Swede, however, and he walked away with a unanimous decision loss.
While known for his karate, Enkamp has submitted four opponents.
Roberts is a strong, well-rounded fighter held back by iffy defense. Luckily for him, Enkamp lacks stopping power and his ground game is insufficient to mitigate the threat of Roberts’ wrestling. The Brit has the skills to control the fight wherever it goes so long as his chin stays intact.
Enkamp really doesn’t appear to have any definitive avenues of victory. Outgunned on the feet and in the takedown department, expect him to lose a somewhat rote decision, although Roberts has had fights that were closer than they should have been.
Prediction: Roberts via unanimous decision
170 lbs.: Jack Marshman vs. Brad Scott
Jack Marshman (22-7) came up big in his Octagon debut, battering Magnus Cedenblad in a fairly sizable upset and earning a “Performance of the Night” bonus in the process. He’s gone on to have mixed success, beating Ryan Janes but suffering stoppage losses to Thiago Santos and Antonio Carlos Junior.
Thirteen of his 18 stoppage victories have come by form of knockout.
Brad Scott (11-5) has alternated wins and losses since losing to current champ Robert Whittaker in The Ultimate Fighter (TUF): “Smashes” finale back in 2012. Following his third UFC upset victory, this one over Scott Askham, Scott took on Jack Hermansson and succumbed to ground-and-pound for his first stoppage loss since 2009.
He replaces the injured Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos on less than three weeks’ notice.
I’m genuinely bummed that Zaleski dos Santos had to bow out, because he and Marshman could have put on a “Fight of the Year” candidate. Still, this ought to be fairly entertaining so long as neither man is overly drained by the cut to 170 pounds.
Working off that assumption, we’re looking at a competitive striking battle where Scott’s wrestling could be the key factor. That edge isn’t enough to overcome Marshman’s raw power, however, especially since “The Bear” has been very hit-and-miss with his takedowns. In the end, Marshman outboxes him for a fun 15 minutes.
Prediction: Marshman via unanimous decision
145 lbs.: Danny Henry vs. Hakeem Dawodu
Danny Henry (11-2) — a two-time Featherweight champion of South Africa’s EFC promotion — stepped up in weight to welcome knockout artist Daniel Teymur to UFC last September. “The Hatchet” made his fellow Scots proud by weathering an early storm to pummel Teymur in the last two rounds and pick up his fourth consecutive victory.
He stands three inches taller than Hakeem Dawodu (7-0-1) at 5’11.”
“Mean” Hakeem emerged as a top attraction for World Series of Fighting (WSOF), ultimately spending the entirety of his pre-UFC career under its banner. The Canadian suffered the first blemish of his career in 2015 with a majority draw against unbeaten Marat Magomedov, but knocked him out in the rematch before defeating UFC veteran Steven Siler last March.
All but one of his wins have come by form of knockout.
Dawodu is one of the most promising 145-pound prospects to join UFC in recent years. He’s an absolutely lethal offensive striker with quality submission defense and a lovely left hook to the body ... not to mention cardio that can handle three hard rounds. Henry is absurdly tough and managed to outlast a quality slugger in Teymur, but he’s way too hittable to survive long against Dawodu.
Can’t Homer Simpson his way out of this one.
Even with Henry’s height advantage, Dawodu’s sharp enough to control the striking both at range with his punches and inside with his elbows. “Mean” Hakeem circumvents his foe’s durability by ripping to the body for an early finish.
Prediction: Dawodu via first-round technical knockout
155 lbs.: Nasrat Haqparast vs. Nad Narimani
Nasrat Haqparast (8-2) tasted defeat in his first professional bout and promptly decided not to deal with that again for a while, winning his next eight fights by form of knockout. He ultimately made his UFC debut last October in Gdansk, where he managed to rock grappling stud Marcin Held but ultimately could not shut down his wrestling.
Nad Narimani (10-2) came up short in his first crack at Cage Warriors Featherweight gold, losing a decision to eventual UFC-signee, Alex Enlund. He made the most of his second opportunity, though, dominating prospect Paddy Pimblett for the belt last April.
He replaces the injured Alex Reyes on a week’s notice.
I’m fairly high on Haqparast’s potential — he’s got crushing power, good speed and moves well. He’s just a bit too green at the moment, too overzealous in his pursuit of the knockout. Narimani, meanwhile, is the sort of well-rounded tank of a man that can take Haqparast’s best shot and exploit his inexperience at the highest level.
While the short notice and weight difference could be an issue, Narimani has gone five rounds twice before and has the physicality to at least hold his own at lightweight. Narimani’s durability, cardio, and greater experience carry him to a decision victory.
Prediction: Narimani via unanimous decision
Current UFC “Prelims” Prediction Record for 2018: 42-14
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Well then. These are some pretty disappointing lines.Comment -
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Hugo's 100 Point Trivia Question:
Which fighter will be facing his fourth consecutive Southpaw opponent on Saturday? Who were the other three that he faced?
Hint: One of them fought only Round 1 of their fight Southpaw but is capable of fighting from either stance.Last edited by Hugo de Naranja; 03-14-18, 09:46 PM.Comment -
I was actually looking for Peter Sobotta who fought Kyle Noke, Nicholas Dalby (Switch Stance but fought Southpaw in R1), Ben Saunders, and now Leon Edwards BUT after further review, Kajan Johnson also satisfies the requirements that I laid out. Great job Shag. Crazy that two guys on this card are fighting four Southpaws in a row.Comment -
Does anyone know where I can find the tape for Dawodu's fights with Marat Magomedov?Comment -
Speaking of southpaws, I looked up what the percentage of fighters are southpaw and this answer came up below.
Looks like southpaws represent 20% of all fighters in MMA. I feel like there are even a bit more in the UFC. Would be nice to know whether UFC has a higher rate, because it was would be evidence of the southpaw advantage. I'm a right-handed southpaw so been thinking about this recently since many of the greatest Thai fighters have been southpaws: Saenchai, Sittichai, Yodsanklai, Samart (mostly southpaw at least).Comment -
Going the Bruce Lee route with dominant hand up front?Speaking of southpaws, I looked up what the percentage of fighters are southpaw and this answer came up below.
Looks like southpaws represent 20% of all fighters in MMA. I feel like there are even a bit more in the UFC. Would be nice to know whether UFC has a higher rate, because it was would be evidence of the southpaw advantage. I'm a right-handed southpaw so been thinking about this recently since many of the greatest Thai fighters have been southpaws: Saenchai, Sittichai, Yodsanklai, Samart (mostly southpaw at least).Comment -
I've always wondered if its due to many wrestlers preferring the southpaw stance.Speaking of southpaws, I looked up what the percentage of fighters are southpaw and this answer came up below.
Looks like southpaws represent 20% of all fighters in MMA. I feel like there are even a bit more in the UFC. Would be nice to know whether UFC has a higher rate, because it was would be evidence of the southpaw advantage. I'm a right-handed southpaw so been thinking about this recently since many of the greatest Thai fighters have been southpaws: Saenchai, Sittichai, Yodsanklai, Samart (mostly southpaw at least).Comment -
*ARBITRAGE ALERT*
MANUWA -199 (BETONLINE)
BLACHOWICZ +310 (5dimes)
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