Anybody can train for a fight and show up all ready, but a real man just steps in there. - Chael P. Sonnen
UFC Fight Night: Stephens vs. Choi | 14.01.2018 (St. Louis, Missouri)
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UncleChaelSBR MVP
- 10-30-13
- 3979
#141Comment -
brooks85SBR Aristocracy
- 01-05-09
- 44709
#142damn just saw hall/belfort is offComment -
ShagdogySBR MVP
- 06-16-10
- 3564
#144Between this and two 48-47s in Cyborg/Holly, incompetent judging has screwed me out of over $1k in the past two fights I've had bets on.
If there were a way to handicap, strategize, or hedge poor judging, I'd really like to know. I don't recall being on the winning end of a controversial decision in 2017.Comment -
ShagdogySBR MVP
- 06-16-10
- 3564
#145I'm capping Danielle Taylor right now and as a fan I'm bored out of my mind. Every fight is the same... she circles nonstop and occasionally plants and looks to land her right hand. In her fight vs. Moroz her coach tells her "jab, jab, right hand" and that's basically her only move in every fight. If she wasn't faster and more powerful than most of her opponents she would have nothing. I really don't enjoy watching her. move move move move move move, punch, move move move move, punch, etc. etc.Comment -
TPowellSBR Posting Legend
- 02-21-08
- 18842
#146I'm capping Danielle Taylor right now and as a fan I'm bored out of my mind. Every fight is the same... she circles nonstop and occasionally plants and looks to land her right hand. In her fight vs. Moroz her coach tells her "jab, jab, right hand" and that's basically her only move in every fight. If she wasn't faster and more powerful than most of her opponents she would have nothing. I really don't enjoy watching her. move move move move move move, punch, move move move move, punch, etc. etc.Comment -
KingHawkinsSBR MVP
- 04-18-13
- 1311
#147
On a side note, I couldn't help myself and fired a little bit on Paige by KO/TKO/DQ at +450 (at a shitty book, I am sure I am getting a bad # there)...Comment -
ShagdogySBR MVP
- 06-16-10
- 3564
#148I am really hoping you are right about not being a TD threat. I think D.T.'s best path to victory here is with takedowns and control. Her hands suck, she is boring to watch (echoing Shag there), and I think Aldrich could and should dominate. But man, I am worried about that pesky little thing taking down my red little stringbean girl a few times and stealing rounds.
On a side note, I couldn't help myself and fired a little bit on Paige by KO/TKO/DQ at +450 (at a shitty book, I am sure I am getting a bad # there)...Comment -
ShagdogySBR MVP
- 06-16-10
- 3564
#149Man... Aldrich was day and night from her short notice debut to her fight with Chan Mi Jeon. She did not show what she is capable of against Lima and she put on a very nice display of striking vs. Jeon.
Against Taylor I think she will be the more varied, crisp, fluid striker. She does well slipping strikes against fighters with much more reach than Taylor and Jeon had decent speed in her hands too. I think Aldrich holds a pretty clear edge here. Taylor is very static. Unless she has added more attacks to her arsenal then I think she will struggle to edge Aldrich in a striking match.
And King - I don't worry too much about the TD game of Taylor. She hasn't implemented it yet in the UFC, and she wasn't clearly winning any of those bouts. Aldrich stuffed Lima's initial shots but could not avoid the TD once Lima worked against the cage and got bodylock. Even still, she was able to get up a number of times. Since that fight, working out there with champ Rose, I have to imagine she's put some effort into the TDD against the cage.
I also suspect that we could see even more improvement out of Aldrich this time. She's at a good place in her training, a camp that has momentum, and she is at a ripe age. Gotta take a shot with her here. Never thought I'd be betting all these women's fights...Comment -
KingHawkinsSBR MVP
- 04-18-13
- 1311
#150Sorry King but you coulda done literally anything else with that Paige money IMO. Clark has never been finished and outside of that head kick against Rawlings (which really should not have landed), Paige has very little KO/TKO threat. Just my two cents - but I was terrible with props last year so I guess I shouldn't act like I really have a clue. I'm on the Clark ML though.Comment -
KingHawkinsSBR MVP
- 04-18-13
- 1311
#151Man... Aldrich was day and night from her short notice debut to her fight with Chan Mi Jeon. She did not show what she is capable of against Lima and she put on a very nice display of striking vs. Jeon.
Against Taylor I think she will be the more varied, crisp, fluid striker. She does well slipping strikes against fighters with much more reach than Taylor and Jeon had decent speed in her hands too. I think Aldrich holds a pretty clear edge here. Taylor is very static. Unless she has added more attacks to her arsenal then I think she will struggle to edge Aldrich in a striking match.
And King - I don't worry too much about the TD game of Taylor. She hasn't implemented it yet in the UFC, and she wasn't clearly winning any of those bouts. Aldrich stuffed Lima's initial shots but could not avoid the TD once Lima worked against the cage and got bodylock. Even still, she was able to get up a number of times. Since that fight, working out there with champ Rose, I have to imagine she's put some effort into the TDD against the cage.
I also suspect that we could see even more improvement out of Aldrich this time. She's at a good place in her training, a camp that has momentum, and she is at a ripe age. Gotta take a shot with her here. Never thought I'd be betting all these women's fights...Comment -
turbozedSBR MVP
- 10-15-08
- 2435
#152Man... Aldrich was day and night from her short notice debut to her fight with Chan Mi Jeon. She did not show what she is capable of against Lima and she put on a very nice display of striking vs. Jeon.
Against Taylor I think she will be the more varied, crisp, fluid striker. She does well slipping strikes against fighters with much more reach than Taylor and Jeon had decent speed in her hands too. I think Aldrich holds a pretty clear edge here. Taylor is very static. Unless she has added more attacks to her arsenal then I think she will struggle to edge Aldrich in a striking match.
And King - I don't worry too much about the TD game of Taylor. She hasn't implemented it yet in the UFC, and she wasn't clearly winning any of those bouts. Aldrich stuffed Lima's initial shots but could not avoid the TD once Lima worked against the cage and got bodylock. Even still, she was able to get up a number of times. Since that fight, working out there with champ Rose, I have to imagine she's put some effort into the TDD against the cage.
I also suspect that we could see even more improvement out of Aldrich this time. She's at a good place in her training, a camp that has momentum, and she is at a ripe age. Gotta take a shot with her here. Never thought I'd be betting all these women's fights...Comment -
eligibletackleSBR High Roller
- 12-20-11
- 149
#154Johnson (scorecards = no action)* -282
I like the payout profile on the above. Are we worried about chalk plays against elkins?Comment -
JIBBBYSBR Aristocracy
- 12-10-09
- 83686
#155MMA MANIA - parts 1 and 2
125 lbs.: Kalindra Fariavs. Jessica Eye
Kalindra Faria (18-6-1) put losses to Jessica Aguilar and Karolina Kowalkiewicz behind her with three consecutive wins, including a rubber match victory over Carina Damm for the Titan FC Bantamweight title. This earned her a spot in UFC, where she suffered an upset submission loss to late replacement Mara Romero Borella in her Octagon debut.
She owns seven professional wins by form of knockout and another five via submission.
The good news for Jessica Eye (11-6) is that she’s finally in her proper division. The bad news is that “Evil” re-enters it on a four-fight losing streak, although she deserved the win over Bethe Correia last time out.
She has not fought since Sept. 2016 due to both Aspen Ladd and Paige VanZant pulling out of planned bouts.
I feel like I say this every time I predict one of her fights, but Eye is legitimately better than her 1-5 UFC record would suggest. The decisions against Alexis Davis and Bethe Correia could have easily gone her way and the three women she lost clearly to were Miesha Tate, Sara McMann and Julianna Pena, all powerhouse grapplers and considerably larger than Eye.
At 125 pounds, she’ll do much better. Faria is a dangerous, powerful slugger, but Eye’s boxing is significantly sharper. She picks apart Faria to finally get back on track.
Prediction: Eye via unanimous decision
135 lbs.: Talita Bernardo vs. Irene Aldana
Talita Bernardo (5-2) — riding a four-fight win streak — stepped up on less than a week’s notice to face Marion Reneau in Rotterdam last September. While she started strong, Reneau eventually overpowered her with ground-and-pound en route to a stoppage with just six seconds to go.
She is a full six inches shorter than Mexico’s Irene Aldana (7-4).
Aldana entered UFC with some hype following a pair of impressive knockouts in Invicta. She’s since struggled to regain that form, losing decisions to Leslie Smith and Katlyn Chookagian but earning “Fight of the Night” against the former.
She owns five professional wins by (technical) knockout and another two by submission.
I won’t deny that I’ve been disappointed with Aldana’s UFC run, but she’s still way too much for Bernardo. In addition to the massive height discrepancy, Bernardo looks like a complete novice on the feet, wholly unequipped to handle Aldana’s power and aggression.
She’s solid on the ground, of course, but her takedowns are inconsistent and Aldana shut down Chookagian’s wrestling in their fight. “Robles” sprawls-and-brawls to her first UFC victory.
Prediction: Aldana via second-round technical knockout
115 lbs.: Danielle Taylor vs. J.J. Aldrich
Danielle Taylor (9-2) won the King of the Cage Strawweight title twice before joining UFC, where she lost a snoozer to Maryna Moroz in her debut. She has since picked up controversial victories over Seo Hee Ham and Jessica Penne, which the majority of the mixed martial arts (MMA) media scored for her opponents.
She stands five inches shorter than J.J. Aldrich (5-2) at 5’0” and will give up seven inches of reach.
Aldrich impressed Joanna Jedrzejczyk enough to be her first pick on The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 23, only to fall in a clash with Team Claudia top pick Tatiana Suarez. Things didn’t go much better in her UFC debut against Juliana Lima, but she did manage to defeat Chan Mi Jeon at UFC Fight Night 110.
Two of her five professional wins have come by form of knockout.
I firmly believe Taylor has not won a single fight in UFC. She deserved to lose against Ham and certainly did not get the better of Jessica Penne. She has zero urgency or volume — it’s like judges look at her build and decide that any strike she lands must be a fight-changer.
Unfortunately for her, Aldrich is a skilled and active striker who defused a decent slugger in Jeon last time out and will have an unreasonably amount of range on her. She picks apart Taylor at range so thoroughly that even Taylor’s hypnosis fails to win enough judges over.
Prediction: Aldrich via unanimous decision
145 lbs.: Mads Burnell vs. Mike Santiago
Mads Burnell (8-2) — riding a three-fight win streak — stepped up on short notice to face the human bulldozer that is Michel Prazeres in Rotterdam. His submission defense held up for two rounds, but the Brazilian — who came in overweight — caught him in a north-south choke early in the third.
His five submission wins include two by Japanese necktie.
The good news for Mike Santiago (21-10) was that his knockout victory on Dana White’s “Tuesday Night Contender Series” earned him a spot in UFC. The bad news was that he had to welcome Zabit Magomedsharipov to the Octagon, suffering a submission loss in the process.
He has just one decision win since May 2011.
Burnell had basically the worst possible stylistic match up in his UFC debut. I expect him to do much better at his proper weight class against someone who isn’t as wide as Burnell is tall. Santiago is aggressive and well-rounded, but those 10 losses include eight by submission and Burnell has some nasty chokes.
The jury’s out on whether Burnell has the wrestling to be a real threat, but he’s fighting out of a decent camp and has lots of time to improve at age 23. Santiago’s onslaught opens him up to a takedown, after which Burnell locks up something unpleasant as they scramble.
Prediction: Burnell via first-round submission
135 lbs.: Kyung Ho Kang vs. Guido Cannetti
Kyung Ho Kang (13-7) got off to a shaky UFC start, losing close decisions to Alex Caceres and Chico Camus, before finally picking up a win over Shunichi Shimizu in Singapore. He went on to scrape past Michinori Tanaka in hostile territory, winning “Fight of the Night” in the process.
This will be his first fight in more than three years because of South Korea’s mandatory military service.
Guido Cannetti (7-2) got a second chance on TUF: “Latin America” when teammate Marlon Vera suffered a skin infection, only to get demolished by eventual winner Alejandro Perez in the semifinals. He has since split his UFC bouts, falling to Enrique Briones in his promotional debut before upsetting Hugo Viana his next time out.
He has not fought in more than two years because of a failed drug test.
Three years is a long-ass time, but not long enough to keep this from being a one-sided wipeout. Cannetti is a limited, chinny brawler who cannot match Kang’s size, wrestling ability or submission skills. Though Kang has had issues with maintaining position, Cannetti isn’t anywhere near the caliber of scrambler Caceres or Tanaka is and his wild rushes are perfect double-leg fodder.
The only question in this fight is whether Kang is too rusty to get the finish. I say no. He taps Cannetti in the first round.
Prediction: Kang via first-round submission
145 lbs.: Darren Elkins vs. Michael Johnson
Darren Elkins (23-5) — once an afterthought at 145 pounds — has emerged as an unexpected contender under the tutelage of Team Alpha Male. His current five-fight run includes wins over Chas Skelly, Mirsad Bektic and Dennis Bermudez, all fights in which he was an underdog.
“The Damage” will give up two inches of arm and leg reach to Michael Johnson (17-12).
It’s been a rocky road for Johnson, who snapped a two-fight losing streak with a stunning knockout of Dustin Poirier before dropping two straight to Khabib Nurmagomedov and Justin Gaethje. To his credit, the latter battle earned several “Fight of the Year” accolades, but he’s taking the plunge to 145 nonetheless.
He has scored eight professional wins by (technical) knockout.
I’ve picked against Elkins in three of his last four fights and the crow is starting to taste bad. I’m going to put my faith in him here, which will probably result in him losing, but I’ve actually got good reason.
Frankly, I think moving to 145 pounds is a terrible decision for Johnson. That 1-4 run he’s on should be 2-3 -- he deserved the win against Beneil Dariush. And losing to monsters like Khabib Nurmagomedov and Justin Gaethje is nothing to be ashamed of. A fully equipped Johnson has the firepower to take out Ekins, but I can’t pick him to win his Featherweight debut against a guy with this sort of pressure. Elkins, as always, walks through fire to wear down Johnson and eke out the decision.
Prediction: Elkins via split decision
155 lbs.: James Krause vs. Alex White
James Krause (24-7) — despite a two-fight win streak — decided to try his luck on The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 25, where he reached the semifinals before getting overpowered by Jesse Taylor. He got back on track on the Finale with a decision over Tom Gallicchio, upping his UFC record to 5-3.
He is two inches taller than Alex White (12-3) and will have as many inches of reach on him.
White started his UFC as a Featherweight, going 2-2 with wins over Estevan Payan and Artem Lobov. Following the latter victory, he made the jump to lightweight, where he’s suffered a decision loss to Tony Martin and scored a technical knockout finish of Mitch Clarke.
He owns five professional wins each by knockout and submission.
White is tough, powerful and relentless. What he isn’t is slick enough to get inside on Krause or sufficiently equipped to exploit Krause’s iffy takedown defense. All the grit in the world isn’t worth squat if he’s getting picked off by jabs and long kicks the entire time.
Krause’s skillset (strong striking and grappling without the wrestling to support it) isn’t enough to carry him into the division elite. It is, however, more than sufficient to take out mid-tier sluggers like White. Krause pieces him up at range and threatens a few takedowns to take home the decision.
Prediction: Krause via unanimous decision
155 lbs.: Matt Frevola vs. Polo Reyes
Five consecutive victories, including one each in World Series of Fighting and Titan FC, put Matt Frevola (6-0) in center stage on the “Tuesday Night Contender Series” season finale. There, “The Steamrolla” took on fellow unbeaten Jose Flores and picked up his third professional submission victory.
In addition to his professional record, he went 8-0 as an amateur.
Polo Reyes (7-4) was outgunned by teammate Horacio Gutierrez on TUF: “Latin America” 2, but proved his chops with three wins in his first three UFC appearances, including a “Fight of the Year” contender against Dong Hyun Kim. The momentum was not to last, however, as he was beaten down by James Vick this past May.
At 5’11,” he is two inches taller than Frevola.
Frevola is built for entertainment. What he isn’t built for is consistent success. He keeps his hands low and marches forward, winging haymakers and looking for poorly disguised takedowns. Reyes is right at the threshold of people he has a shot against.
And, I think, just ever-so-slightly on the wrong side of it. Frevola is going to slug it out with Reyes, which is the worst possible way to fight him. Unless Frevola’s wrestling is sharper than it’s looked, Reyes outbrawls him on his way to a late stoppage.
Prediction: Reyes via second-round technical knockout
170 lbs.: Thiago Alvesvs. Zak Cummings
A tough loss to Carlos Condit sent Thiago Alves down to 155 pounds, where he promptly missed weight by over six pounds, and lost a decision to Jim Miller. He went back to 170 pounds and handily beat Patrick Cote, but Hurricane Irma left him unable to face Mike Perry in September.
He owns eight UFC wins by knockout, though just one since 2008.
Though he fell short on TUF 17, Zak Cummings (21-5) has established himself as a capable Welterweight despite a couple of scale fails. He is currently on a 4-1 streak wherein he survived the distance against Santiago Ponzinibbio and earned a stoppage in three of the four wins.
He stands three inches taller than Alves at 6’0.”
Cummings is definitely on a role and his pressure game is deceptively effective. Even so, Alves’ performance against Cote has me leaning “The Pitbull’s” way. Cummings is fairly straightforward in his attack and is almost certainly slower than Alves, who will have the edge in footwork and the takedown defense to force prolonged striking engagements.
Though Cummings packs a decent punch, it’s not enough to rattle Alves, who’s proven he can do real damage on the counter. He piles up leg kicks and counter punches on his way to a decision victory.
Prediction: Alves via unanimous decisionComment -
Hugo de NaranjaSBR Posting Legend
- 04-14-16
- 14140
#156UFC Fight Night 124: Stephens vs. Choi Picks:
Mike Santiago Round 1 TKO (Punches)
J.J. Aldrich Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28 x2)
Kalindra Faria Split Decision (29-28 x2, 28-29)
Kyung Ho Kang Round 2 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Irene Aldana Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Matt Frevola Round 1 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Alex White Round 2 TKO (Punches)
Darren Elkins Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)
Kamaru Usman Round 2 TKO (Punches)
Jessica-Rose Clark Unanimous Decision (30-27 x2, 29-28)
Doo Ho Choi Unanimous Decision (49-46 x3)Comment -
Hugo de NaranjaSBR Posting Legend
- 04-14-16
- 14140
#157UFC Fight Night 124: Stephens vs. Choi
Fight Pass Prelims:
Fight #1: Santiago vs. Burnell
Santiago ITD (+217) 1u
Santiago Submission (+613) .5u
Hedge:
Burnell Submission (+490) .5u
Fight #2: Taylor vs. Aldrich
No Bet
Fight #3: Faria vs. Eye
No Bet
Fox Sports 1 Prelims:
Fight #4: Kang vs. Cannetti
Kang Submission (+259) 1.5u
Fight #5: Aldana vs. Bernardo
Aldana ITD (+293) 1.5u
Hedge:
Bernardo ITD (+475) .5u
Fight #6: Frevola (DEBUT) vs. Polo Reyes
Frevola Submission (+832) 1u
Hedge:
Reyes ITD (+349) 1u
Fight #7: White vs. Krause
White ITD (+395) 1u
Main Card:
Fight #8: Elkins vs. Johnson
Elkins (+140) 1.5u
Elkins Submission (+1305) .25u
Elkins Round 3 (+2325) .25u
Fight #9: Usman vs. Meek
Usman KO/TKO (+270) 1u
Usman Round 2 (+500) 1u
Usman Round 3 (+900) .5u
Hedge:
Meek KO/TKO (+1049) 1u
Fight #10: Clark vs. VanZant
Clark+VanZant WGD (+210) .5u
VanZant ITD (+499) 1u
Hedge:
Clark Submission (+1450) .5u
Fight #11: Choi vs. Stephens
Choi+Stephens Goes Distance (+235) 2u
Choi Decision (+449) 2u
Choi Round 1 (+388) 1u
Straight Parlays:
Aldana/Clark (+230) 1u
White/Clark (+369) .5u
White/Elkins (+536) .25u
Prop Parlays:
Santiago/Hall -3.5 (+147) 1u
Usman -3.5/Clark/Choi (+315) .25u
Kang/Aldana/Frevola -3.5 (+351) .25u
Santiago+Burnell WGD/Aldrich/Faria (+566) .25u
Full Card Props:
Over 6.5 Fights Go Distance (+129) 1.25u
Choi+Stephens FOTN (+250) 1u
Over 7.5 Fights Go Distance (+413) .5u
Over 8.5 Fights Go Distance (+1288) .25u
Multi-Event Parlays:
Usman -3.5/Open (+xxx) 5uComment -
ShagdogySBR MVP
- 06-16-10
- 3564
#158Hugo I like the way you played Aldana/Bernardo. If either girl keeps it in their wheelhouse it's hard to imagine they don't get the finish.Comment -
firekillexSBR Hall of Famer
- 09-18-13
- 6420
#160elkins getting exposed tonight
lucks gonna run outComment -
SatoSBR MVP
- 07-10-12
- 1201
#161Im not sure where Johnson heart is coming off Khabib and Gaethje like that. Weird fight.Comment -
KingHawkinsSBR MVP
- 04-18-13
- 1311
#163Danielle Taylor up to -140 at some books, and now the favorite at most. Pinnacle showing Aldrich at +118Comment -
TPowellSBR Posting Legend
- 02-21-08
- 18842
#164VanZant is +210 by decision? I didn't realize she had so many finishes but no matter. She's FAR more likely to win by decision than by finish.Comment -
TPowellSBR Posting Legend
- 02-21-08
- 18842
#165I'm not sure what people are thinking here but this is STILL a 125 pound fight between women that are very durable. I get that PVZ has a lot of finishes on her record but that crazy kick against Bec or subbing a jobber like Chambers doesn't impress me. This fight will go the distance more often than not for sure and I think this is a close fight to call. +225 is real value.Comment -
TPowellSBR Posting Legend
- 02-21-08
- 18842
#166My card
UFC Fight Night 124, St Louis, Missouri, 14th Jan '18Straight Pick Opponent Odds Unit Bet Jessica Eye Kalindra Faria -120 2 J.J. Aldrich Danielle Taylor -120 2
Comment -
ShagdogySBR MVP
- 06-16-10
- 3564
#169Hugo got me into ToutMaster this year so I'm gonna take a page from his playbook and post my picks and my plays, just for fun.
Fight Night 124 Picks:
Santiago, decision.
Aldrich, decision.
Eye, decision.
Kang, sub.
Aldana, TKO/KO.
Reyes, TKO/KO.
White, decision.
Johnson, decision.
Usman, TKO/KO.
Clark, decision.
Choi, decision.Comment -
ShagdogySBR MVP
- 06-16-10
- 3564
#170Fight Night 124 Bets:
Aldrich -115, 1.15u
Eye -120, 1.2u
Kang/Aldana parlay +113, 1u
Reyes +185, .54u
White +140, 1.5u
Clark -110, 2u
Good luck everyone!Comment -
TPowellSBR Posting Legend
- 02-21-08
- 18842
#171So I got +225 on PVZ by decision and then minutes late it shoots down to +181. I just don't understand how PVZ could EVER be over +200 by decision in a fight with a durable, evenly matched opponent. Glad I got a couple units on that.Comment -
turbozedSBR MVP
- 10-15-08
- 2435
#172Just as I hoped and expected, JRC is now +105. Gotta love the public action.Comment -
PhoKingSBR High Roller
- 07-04-16
- 247
#174fock i didn't know there was a ufc fight tonight...
anyone got one play that's -300 or better that they're really confident in? i just want to win 1 unit and enjoy the rest of the fight card tonightComment -
TPowellSBR Posting Legend
- 02-21-08
- 18842
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