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Hugo, I sent an email yesterday to get into the Toutmaster tourney and haven't gotten a response... BOO!
Also, congrats on your 6th place finish. Pretty damn good.Comment -
I broke this one down at length for myself and I actually think it's a pretty tight matchup. IMO Reyes will have the more crisp, varied, and technical striking by a long shot. The problem for him is that Frevola lives up to his nickname and fights like a SteamRolla. He will happily engage in a brawl and put his chin up against Reyes's and we all know who should win in that scenario. But... if Frevola does not get the KO, I think Reyes has a very solid chance of getting points, particularly in the 2nd half of the fight.
I don't necessarily expect much ground game to come into play, but if it does, Frevola has the better shot at a game changing moment there.
All in all, I definitely favor him, but I worry that his youth and inexperience could be a big factor if Reyes can weather the early storm. For that reason I only have Frevola as a small favorite and don't see the value on his side.Comment -
PVZ looks really good at slight dog money to me. Clark is pretty much trash. She should be the faster more athletic fighter and if she decides to wrestle like she should, she should be able to win this fight.Comment -
4 chick fights on one card????? Aldrich/Taylor HAS to go to the cards. Even at -300 on OVER 2.5, I feel like there is value. Aldrich has literally not punching power (no clue how she ever finished anyone) and Taylor wings this overhand right instead of using her full arsenal to compliment her athletic ability. She is also SUPER SMALL length wise. She'll give up over 6 inches to a girl that is a volume puncher with zero desire to take fights to the ground. Taylor will have to close distance well to even get herself in position to fire that big overhand right and even then it isn't a KO shot obviously. Aldrich can eat it and survive more than likely. If I wasn't scared of Taylor walking Aldrich down and no selling her punches, I'd probably pay Aldrich by DEC but that is a possibility. I'll do some homework on this one but these girls won't take it to the mat at all and neither have finishing power. The match-up is pretty competitive as well so I doubt we see a one sided fight.Comment -
I don't see either of these girls finishing each other either, but I wouldn't say both have no punching power. Taylor landed one of the harder punches I've seen against Moroz (overhand right in the 2nd round). She's unlikely to finish because she doesn't really follow up. Aldrich doesn't have one shot power (not many girls do at 115) but her punches are so accurate that she can land a good right to the chin that stuns opponents and then follow up with strikes for a TKO.
I took Aldrich in this one because I think she's got the size, reach, and volume advantage. She's a bigger, better, and more accurate southpaw than Seohee Ham and we saw Ham land that left hand constantly on Taylor. Aldrich has more weapons and should win a clearer decision IMO.Comment -
Moroz is tall and stiff though IMO. I can't see her catching JJ with something like that. JJ moves really well but her kryptonite has been getting wrestled and less so power in her hands.Comment -
I'll be glad to give some BetPoints if anyone can find the Kamaru Usman vs. Jose Caceres fight at CFA 11 for me.Comment -
Haven't watched all the tape yet but my initial thought was that Clark might be too much for her. She was already not too strong at 115, but now she's going up to 125 to fight a former 135 lber.
Clark has looked great since switching camps from lousy Australian Top Team to Syndicate. She's also a big 125 lber. I remember Rawlings mentioning how strong she was in between rounds. Rawlings is their common opponent, and Rawlings was probably beating PVZ before getting jump kicked. Clark beat Rawlings soundly IMO (and on shortish notice).
PVZ moved camps from TAM back home to Oregon where it looks like she's training with Chael Sonnen. Also had some foot injury that took her out of a fight with Jessica Eye last October. Not sure if that sort of disruption will help her fight game and she needed a lot of improvement to begin with.
UFC clearly wants PVZ to win in this division, and maybe will set her up with a title shot (which would be absurd).Comment -
Clark is big for 125 for sure but she isn't a big power puncher. She largely counter strikes and gets pushed against the cage. She doesn't use her size well. I think PVZ at 125 will be elusive as hell and hard to pin down plus she should be able to beat Clark on the ground.Comment -
What makes you think Paige will beat Clark on the ground?
From what I see, the only way PVZ wins this is to use a pure mobile outfighting game like Elias Theodorou style. I've seen her be able to do this for at least a round in the Rawlings fight. But not sure if she can keep it up for 3 rounds.Comment -
Eye/Faria at evens (Eye opened as slight dog but the public went in on her). Eye actually has solid fundamentals and a good jab for WMMA. Her problem is she gets stuck with a one way fighting gameplan and she seems to be having trouble adapting properly during a fight. Its do or die for her as she's lost 4 straight with a horrendous 1-5-1 UFC record. The over props for this one are bad.
Any feel for this fight from anybody?Last edited by Sato; 01-09-18, 07:06 AM.Comment -
Sunday Funday
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agree with a lot of you guys that Michael Johnson should take out Elkins. Elkins is a tough out but MJ just has too much for him.Comment -
It's hard to starch Stephens.. Always fade Asian theory in the UFC in play here... I gotta go with Lil Heathen...
Stephens only loses by decision in the last 6 years.. He's fought the best of the best in the UFC.. When Jeremy loses it's by decision.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Jeremy-Stephens-12179
Choi while seemingly explosive and talented has only won decisions early on in his career against no name Asians.. It's pretty much KO or bust and it's DAMN hard to KO Stevens.. Just saying.. Numbers don't lie.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Doo-Ho-Choi-56689
In on Stevens at +135 straight. It think lil Heathen Stevens can win by KO or maybe even by Decision as crazy as that sounds in this one..
Jeremy
Stephens
"Lil' Heathen"
vs
Dooho
Choi
"The Korean Superboy"
UNITED STATES
Country
SOUTH KOREA
26-14-0
Record
14-2-0
65%
KO/TKO
79%
8%
SUB
7%
27%
DEC
14%
69 in
Height
70 in
145 lbs
Weight
145 lbs
71 in
Reach
70 in
38 in
Leg Reach
39 inLast edited by JIBBBY; 01-09-18, 09:13 PM.Comment -
You might consider hedging with Choi Decision (+520). That's crazy value!It's hard to starch Stephens.. Always fade Asian theory in the UFC in play here... I gotta go with Lil Heathen...
Stephens only loses by decision in the last 6 years.. He's fought the best of the best in the UFC.. When Jeremy loses it's by decision.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Jeremy-Stephens-12179
Choi while seemingly explosive and talented has only won decisions early on in his career against no name Asians.. It's pretty much KO or bust and it's DAMN hard to KO Stevens.. Just saying.. Numbers don't lie.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Doo-Ho-Choi-56689
In on Stevens at +135 straight. It think lil Heathen Stevens can win by KO or maybe even by Decision as crazy as that sounds in this one..
Jeremy
Stephens
"Lil' Heathen"
vs
Dooho
Choi
"The Korean Superboy"
UNITED STATES
Country
SOUTH KOREA
26-14-0
Record
14-2-0
65%
KO/TKO
79%
8%
SUB
7%
27%
DEC
14%
69 in
Height
70 in
145 lbs
Weight
145 lbs
71 in
Reach
70 in
38 in
Leg Reach
39 inComment -
I just can't wait to win money on Choi. Going to be great!Comment -
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Doo Ho Choi by KO in the 3rd round.Comment -
Sharing for input... my brief analysis of White/Krause:
While both fighters have fought some decent competition and been around a minute in the UFC, I see a clear advantage for White in this fight if he is able to keep the fight on the feet. He easily has the quicker, sharper striking than Krause, with more power as well. He also has a very strong chin so he will wear anything Krause throws with ease I think. So the question is, can he keep it standing? Against Tony Martin, he could not, but I don’t think Krause is a Tony Martin type takedown artist. He is slow, for one, and he tends to shoot some pretty lazy shots from outside range. Even if he gets White down, White is very hard to sub, and Krause loses position so often that I think he will be able to scramble to the feet. If the grappling exchanges are 50/50 or slight edge to Krause (and I’m not convinced they will be. I think White may avoid TDs well.) then I have to favor White in this fight by a decent margin. I think he will pick Krause apart on the feet and win a clear decision, if not hurt Krause first. Pick: White by UD. Line: -185-200.
Any thoughts on this one? I think White has some very real value.Comment
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