UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. Brunson (October 28, 2017)

[GoBlue77]

Covington needs a taste of humble pie. Guy acts like he's king sh1t. He's fought cans compared to Maia

[JIBBBY]

Covington needs a taste of humble pie. Guy acts like he's king sh1t. He's fought cans compared to Maia

He'll get knocked out soon enough but you gotta appreciate his style.. He comes to bang and even though he gets rocked he keeps coming.. Throws hard too... My favorite fighter to watch right now.. Hense the Avatar pic..

[Hugo de Naranja]

He'll get knocked out soon enough but you gotta appreciate his style.. He comes to bang and even though he gets rocked he keeps coming.. Throws hard too... My favorite fighter to watch right now.. Hense the Avatar pic..

You're talking about Gaethje, not Covington right?

[Hugo de Naranja]

Covington needs a taste of humble pie. Guy acts like he's king sh1t. He's fought cans compared to Maia

Let's go Maia Sub!

[GoBlue77]

You're talking about Gaethje, not Covington right?

ya has to be. and agree Goethje is a MUST WATCH

[JIBBBY]

You're talking about Gaethje, not Covington right?

Yes Geathje, I read the name wrong..

I really don't know Covington well.. Most wrestlers have tude though.. They feel they can take down everyone and beat on them I guess ...

[JIBBBY]

Let's go Maia Sub!

I'm thinking Maia is gonna go for those one leg grabs and take downs all fight long like he tried against Woodley.. There is chance he might get one in just a 3 round fight.. If he gets Covington down we could see the sub happen...

I'm getting excited to see this fight actually!!! Maia is just getting so old now and I'm not sure how much he has left in the tank?... He should give maximum effort in the just a 3 round fight compared to those championship 5 rounders...

I just don't know how each fighter is going to approach this fight?.. Is Covington gonna try and put Maia on his back or just try to defend the take downs and keep it standing? Is Maia gonna try and box the wrestler maybe? Can Maia get trip or one leg grab and take down if he goes all out for it against the stellar wrestler? Lot of questions that I don't have answers for in this scrap?????

[JIBBBY]

http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Colby-Covington-57269

Warlley Alves did sub out Covington a few years ago... Does Maia have this sub in him? If Maia does try this when Covington shoots they better be dry and he better be fresh.. Takes torque and strength to pull this sub off.. Warlley Alves is a strong dude with these chokes and he got it in the 1st round...

[Sanity Check]

Warlley Alves did sub out Covington a few years ago...

Covington might have been injured leading into that fight. Don't know if it affected the outcome.

Colby Covington says being 'broke' forced him to fight Warlley Alves with fractured rib

LAS VEGAS -- Colby Covington talks to the media about his technical knockout win over Max Griffin at UFC 202, why he fought Warlley Alves with a fractured rib, wanting to fight Dong Hyun Kim or Gunnar Nelson next, and much more.

https://www.mmafighting.com/2016/8/2...-warlley-alves

[Shagdogy]

Santos/Hermansson

Jack H is coming off of two very dominant wins via dominant position GnP. It seems pretty obvious that he'll have the same gameplan here against Santos. Santos has shown huge improvement since b2b losses to Moose and Spicely. His sub loss to Spicely knocked his market price way down and we profited from that in his two wins since. Santos has the advantage in the size, strength, and striking department. If Santos shows same level of counterwrestling as in Meerschardt fight, he may be able to keep this standing and punish JH for any bad shots. In that fight, Santos was very quick to get his hips back and, more impressively, was so comfortable that he immediately looked to punish GM with strikes which made it difficult for GM to chain TD attempts. On the feet, Santos has the advantage with power and range. He may not choose to kick in the early stages since he has had it caught before. Santos switches stances but doesn't throw many punches in SP. If he employs that as a tactic, he could have an even bigger advantage as Vivisection pointed out that JH's ability to close distance against SP is poor with a lacking jab. Just from eyeball test, it looks like Santos is a level of strength above JH. More likely than not, he can throw JH around and keep the fight standing. It'll be tough to get Santos down and he is quick to get up. Santos as an underdog at home is hard to pass up. If Santos continues to improve from fight to fight as he has since Spicely loss, he's got the athleticism to run through JH and potentially higher ranked fighters at 185. So I hit the ML at +110 now.


I also think the even odds for over 1.5 rounds is a good price. Both Santos and JH have solid chins and I don't think either guy is going to steamroll the other. The two might neutralize each other on the ground. They've been finishing their own opponents quickly, but JH has trouble getting into range to work his game if Santos is in southpaw stance. Also, Santos has been working on his pacing and patience. He'll pounce on an opportunity or a bad shot, but he doesn't go balls out for the finish.

Let me know if you guys have anything to add or criticize from the above.

Santos's success against Meerschaert was 100% strength and athleticism IMO. We knew Meerschaert wasn't going to win the standup. When he couldn't secure his first couple of takedown attempts and gassed, it got real ugly as Santos threw his weight down on him with heavy sprawls. Simply put, Meerschaert lacked the physicality to stay in that fight. BUT he got in deep on some bland takedown attempts early, and even at the start of the 2nd. A more physical fighter would easily finish from those spots. I still think Santos is vulnerable to someone who can stay in clinch and secure top position. JH is certainly stronger than Meerschaert, but is he strong enough to handle Santos? The oddsmakers certainly seem to think that he has a good shot. I think the line is about right. I don't see too much value on either guy now.

Your read on the over seems good. I like that better. But I'm also pretty bad with O/U's.

[Shagdogy]

Luque vs. Price


Been looking for a good time to fade Niko Price. He seems to have overperformed in his UFC appearances. Prior to getting called up to the UFC, he had never faced a tough test in the Florida regional circuit. Going into the UFC, he got Thatch who apparently any competent grappler can beat. Was losing the striking exchanges with Morono before the odd KO at the end of Rd2. The huge KO win against Jouban also didn't tell us much except that Price has 'weird power' like Oezdemir.

Of course this means that he's always a threat. Luque took this fight in place of Chagas on short notice. Appears to be only around 10 days based on mma news. Hopefully he was already prepared because his cardio was a huge factor in his loss to Edwards. That's something we hadn't seen in his prior fights so maybe it was the international travel to England that phased him? In 100% condition, Luque should probably be a big favorite. He has more technically sound striking, his hands appear to be faster, and he has good distance control and movement. He throws feints and mixes up his timing and movement well. He also pressures well, which should be a problem for Price who is used to having space to work his rangy awkward striking game.

Even losing the striking exchanges to Morono for the better part of 2 rounds, Price didn't mix in a single takedown, which may indicate a weakness in wrestling (either guy could've sealed or stole rounds with a TD and a minute of top control in that fight). Luque can and does mix up striking and grappling well. And if he's able to take down Price during exchanges, this will increase his advantage further. If not for his poor performance in the last Edwards fight and the late notice, we should be licking our chops to back Luque here. Unfortunately the conditioning is a worry so will need to see how Luque looks and possibly find out what he was up to in the weeks leading up to getting the call to be in this fight.

No bet so far

All pretty dead on. I do think Price has some solid grit, but his chin is a question mark. Luque has serious power in the pocket. I agree Luque may attempt some TD's but I'm not sure how successful he will be. We haven't seen much counter wrestling from Price but he does appear to be physically strong.

I think no bet is the way to go in this fight. I think it may just be a brawl until someone falls. Leaning Luque.

[JIBBBY]

Covington might have been injured leading into that fight. Don't know if it affected the outcome.

Colby Covington says being 'broke' forced him to fight Warlley Alves with fractured rib

LAS VEGAS -- Colby Covington talks to the media about his technical knockout win over Max Griffin at UFC 202, why he fought Warlley Alves with a fractured rib, wanting to fight Dong Hyun Kim or Gunnar Nelson next, and much more.

https://www.mmafighting.com/2016/8/2...-warlley-alves

Well Covington didn't look injured to me, he ducked in for the takedown and Warlley's strength is those Guillotine chokes.. He gets most of his wins by those.. That's why I said I'm not so sure Maia has the strength to pull off that same kinda choke.. Warlley really torques those...

As far as being injured he picked up Warlley and slammed him as he didn't look injured or weak in that fight.. I just think he got caught and underestimated the danger he was gonna be in...

Either way that was a few years ago and it probably will be hard for Maia to pull off that same guil choke.. Covington is a better fighter I think then he was 2 years ago..

[Shagdogy]

Good Breakdown....Feel price is loaded with intangibles-weird to say I know....but he has crazy heart and determination to win....might have to kill the guy to get him out...also like you said...weird power...just cant explain it....gritty fighter....Rocky Edwards is a physical presence and wears people down so I don't even hate on Luque for that loss but besides catching BM early he does not really have any impressive wins either....I think if it turns into a war it will favor price GLL

In a strange way, I agree about the intangibles with Price. On logic and knowlede alone I can't bet him, but there is something to the guy. I think Luque can bring the kind of fight to show if it's real, or smoke and mirrors.

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

[UncleChael]

Welcome to the Machida Era....

[Hugo de Naranja]

Welcome to the Machida Era....

That's a Rogan quote from when he won the title, right?

[turbozed]

All pretty dead on. I do think Price has some solid grit, but his chin is a question mark. Luque has serious power in the pocket. I agree Luque may attempt some TD's but I'm not sure how successful he will be. We haven't seen much counter wrestling from Price but he does appear to be physically strong.

I think no bet is the way to go in this fight. I think it may just be a brawl until someone falls. Leaning Luque.

Thanks for the feedback as always Shagy

[turbozed]

So Luque finally did an interview to explain his situation. He was offered the fight 3 weeks ago but they didn't announce it until a couple weeks later. Was already training to take a fight in October or November. Explained his poor showing against Edwards by saying he was too drained from fighting and cutting 4 times in 8 months and he wasn't 100%.

This answers enough questions and he looked healthy enough on the scales for me to back Luque here. Think Price won't be able to handle someone who will get in his face with more technical striking and disrupt his awkward range game.

[UncleChael]

That's a Rogan quote from when he won the title, right?

Yes. He could win.
Kids, don't get tattoos on ur face till your old enough and living your dreams - Mike Perry

[Hugo de Naranja]

Love the price on Brunson R1 at (+350). Think an early finish is his most likely path to victory.

[Shagdogy]

Hugo I'm with you on Font. I think he can control the range and land from the outside. Physically he's longer, and he strikes longer too. He should prob just stick to that and avoid shooting in at all so he doesn't risk the guillotine. He's better when he can keep opponents guessing by mixing in the takedowns but his striking alone would prob be enough tonight vs Munhoz. I think his advantage there could carry him.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

Covington might have been injured leading into that fight. Don't know if it affected the outcome.

Colby Covington says being 'broke' forced him to fight Warlley Alves with fractured rib

LAS VEGAS -- Colby Covington talks to the media about his technical knockout win over Max Griffin at UFC 202, why he fought Warlley Alves with a fractured rib, wanting to fight Dong Hyun Kim or Gunnar Nelson next, and much more.

https://www.mmafighting.com/2016/8/2...-warlley-alves

I don't buy that

too many make excuses for their losses

just like Rory is saying Lawler was on steroids

take your loss like a man and carry on

[JAKEPEAVY21]

papertrail, give me a winning parlay pal

looking at lineker, antonio carlos jr, font, brooks, brunson

[Shagdogy]

papertrail, give me a winning parlay pal

looking at lineker, antonio carlos jr, font, brooks, brunson

I don't see the value on Lineker at -500. I think he will win since I expect this fight to be on the feet without Vera being able to keep Lineker off balance like TJ could by mixing takedowns. BUT, Vera has never been finished and he has started looking more consistent recently. If he shows more progression, as he is the greener fighter, he could make this much closer than a -500 fight.

[Demonata]

Maybe i will parlay maia and machida. Hmmmmm. Or i might just wait to bet the ufc event next week. Just really feel its destiny fir gsp to beat bisping.

[Shagdogy]

Maybe i will parlay maia and machida. Hmmmmm. Or i might just wait to bet the ufc event next week. Just really feel its destiny fir gsp to beat bisping.

I would love to see GSP get Matt Serra'd. I think this is such a bitch move by him to come back now straight to a title shot against one of the weaker champs 170 or 185 has seen in his absence.

[Demonata]

I would love to see GSP get Matt Serra'd. I think this is such a bitch move by him to come back now straight to a title shot against one of the weaker champs 170 or 185 has seen in his absence.

I would hate that. I think he deserves it more than jon jones did against cormier. Gsp well respected and didn't do steroids etc and had an amazing record. I think he 100% deserves it.also i think bisping is really good as well. I don't think this is an easy fight. Gsp will fight anyone. It's also not like he or bisping has many fights left maybe 2 at best before they retire for good. Nothing wrong with letting gsp have a chance to become champion one more time when he didn't lose the belt from a loss, then after he beats bisping he fights mcgregor and retires for good.

[Shagdogy]

Me so far:

Golm -200, 3u
Gordon -160, 3u
Font -150, 2u

[JIBBBY]

Love the price on Brunson R1 at (+350). Think an early finish is his most likely path to victory.

I agree if Brunson is to win it's gonna be early on and by KO.. I'm personally liking Machida myself though in this one either by KO or Decision.. I'm playing Machida straight as I think moves to well for Brunson if the fight stays standing..

[Sanity Check]

Well Covington didn't look injured to me, he ducked in for the takedown and Warlley's strength is those Guillotine chokes.. He gets most of his wins by those.. That's why I said I'm not so sure Maia has the strength to pull off that same kinda choke.. Warlley really torques those...

As far as being injured he picked up Warlley and slammed him as he didn't look injured or weak in that fight.. I just think he got caught and underestimated the danger he was gonna be in...

Either way that was a few years ago and it probably will be hard for Maia to pull off that same guil choke.. Covington is a better fighter I think then he was 2 years ago..

I can't comment on whether Covington was injured or if it affected the outcome of the fight.

In high school there was a guy who played football who had a cracked rib (same thing as fractured rib)?

I remember I jumped on his back thinking it wouldn't hurt because it was only a cracked rib and not a broken rib and dude practically cried.

Cracked/fractured rib might be more painful than people realize.

[JIBBBY]

I don't see the value on Lineker at -500. I think he will win since I expect this fight to be on the feet without Vera being able to keep Lineker off balance like TJ could by mixing takedowns. BUT, Vera has never been finished and he has started looking more consistent recently. If he shows more progression, as he is the greener fighter, he could make this much closer than a -500 fight.

Odds are crap on the Lineker straight at -500, I agree Shag, can't touch that even in a parlay..

I'm gonna gamble and play Lineker by Dec.. Vera has never been KO'd or stopped so I'm not convinced JL can knock him out.. Vera has a high percentage of victories by Sub on the flip and his only 3 losses have come by way of decision loss.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Marlon-Vera-97179

I'm also gonna hedge with Vera sub just cover the JL Decision since the odds are so good on that sub prop....



John
Lineker
"Hands of Stone"
vs
Marlon
Vera
"Chito"

BRAZIL
Country
ECUADOR

29-8-0
Record
10-3-1

45%
KO/TKO
20%

14%
SUB
60%

41%
DEC
20%

63 in
Height
68 in

135 lbs
Weight
135 lbs

67 in
Reach
70 in

36 in
Leg Reach
40 in

Significant Strikes

5.01
Landed per minute
2.65

39.1%
Accuracy
45.25%

4.05
Absorbed P/M
3.25

55.13%
Defense
49.08%

[Hugo de Naranja]

Odds are crap on the Lineker straight at -500, I agree Shag, can't touch that even in a parlay..

I'm gonna gamble and play Lineker by Dec.. Vera has never been KO'd or stopped so I'm not convinced JL can knock him out.. Vera has a high percentage of victories by Sub on the flip and his only 3 losses have come by way of decision loss.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Marlon-Vera-97179

I'm also gonna hedge with Vera sub just cover the JL Decision since the odds are so good on that sub prop....



John
Lineker
"Hands of Stone"
vs
Marlon
Vera
"Chito"

BRAZIL
Country
ECUADOR

29-8-0
Record
10-3-1

45%
KO/TKO
20%

14%
SUB
60%

41%
DEC
20%

63 in
Height
68 in

135 lbs
Weight
135 lbs

67 in
Reach
70 in

36 in
Leg Reach
40 in

Significant Strikes

5.01
Landed per minute
2.65

39.1%
Accuracy
45.25%

4.05
Absorbed P/M
3.25

55.13%
Defense
49.08%

Lineker Decision hedged with Vera Sub is how I played it too. I was also able to parlay Lineker up at his opening price.

[JIBBBY]

Lineker Decision hedged with Vera Sub is how I played it too. I was also able to parlay Lineker up at his opening price.

Let's get this Hugo!!!.. We just gotta hope Vera doesn't out work John and win it by decision himself.. We've seen JL lose by decision before... ..

[Hugo de Naranja]

Let's get this Hugo!!!.. We just gotta hope Vera doesn't out work John and win it by decision himself.. We've seen JL lose by decision before... ..

Yeah but both times in the UFC (Ali Bags and Dillashaw) was by him getting out-wrestled. I would be pretty surprised if that happened here.

[PaperTrail07]

#1) UFC Fighting
Selection : C. Covington 10/28/2017 9:15PM - (PST) Money Line -130 for Game

#2) UFC Fighting
Selection : R. Font 10/28/2017 8:45PM - (PST) Money Line -170 for Game

#3) UFC Fighting
Selection : T. Santos 10/28/2017 7:45PM - (PST) Money Line +100 for Game

#4) UFC Fighting
Selection : N. Price 10/28/2017 6:40PM - (PST) Money Line +105 for Game

#5) UFC Fighting
Selection : H. Dias 10/28/2017 5:40PM - (PST) Money Line +145 for Game

#6) UFC Fighting
Selection : J. Brooks 10/28/2017 4:35PM - (PST) Money Line -155 for Game

Risking : 20.00 To Win : 908.73 USD

papertrail, give me a winning parlay pal

looking at lineker, antonio carlos jr, font, brooks, brunson