UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. Brunson (October 28, 2017)

[JIBBBY]

Maia ITD is (+400) but somehow Maia Sub is only (+275) lol

LOL... Good eye Hugo... Everyone is slamming the sub prop, nobody even thinking about the ITD prop.. 5dimes not adjusting accordingly.. Happens all the time...

1105 Maia wins inside distance

+400

1127 Maia wins by submission

+275

[JIBBBY]

say what?? maia threw sonnen on his back in round 1 and triangled him from full mount ????

also that twood fight was very short notice, woodley was fighting with defensive wrestling and hes much shorter at 5'9 way harder to take down imo..... covington will probably try to take maia down unless he wants to keep this standing for 3 rounds? but i could see maia pulling guard or something here... underdog price im on it all day .. covington is no twood

I ment Jake Shields when he controlled Maia on the ground with his top game and wrestling.. Not Chael Sonnen.. My bad..

Brain fart post of mine.. I think I confused Anderson Silva with Maia against Chael Sonnen in the last post or something

[turbozed]

Just getting around to taking a look at this card.

Is there an mma fighter with more names than Deiveson "Daica Deus da Guerra" Figeuredo Alcantra?

[turbozed]

Maia ITD is (+400) but somehow Maia Sub is only (+275) lol

Lol good catch. "Not Maia by submission" is only -395. So that's a rare concurrent arbitrage opp that I haven't seen in a while.

[Demonata]

I can't to watch maia and machida win. Covington is no woodly and maia can strike and grapple with him. Also experience. Machida striking i love and can pick brunson apart from all angles with his counters, also machida a really high fight iq

[MMANick]

I ment Jake Shields when he controlled Maia on the ground with his top game and wrestling.. Not Chael Sonnen.. My bad..

Brain fart post of mine.. I think I confused Anderson Silva with Maia against Chael Sonnen in the last post or something

I'm on Covington, but I'd say Shields Jits is light years ahead of Covington's.

[JIBBBY]

I'm on Covington, but I'd say Shields Jits is light years ahead of Covington's.

That is true.. Do you really need elite Jits when you are the better wrestler and controlling the fight in top position though? I don't remember Jake defending very many sub attempts by Maia when he had him on his back..

One mistake by Covington though and Maia can turn the tables in a flash, a sweep late perhaps and Covington will be in trouble... If Maia can leach and work his way onto Covington's back in a clinch against the cage or something and Covington will be in trouble also..

[PaperTrail07]

Have to Agree Jibbs...Maia is willing to go to his back and he will expect to sweep Cov and I don't see it happening......he went from -130 to -175 most places....Covington's clinch and grappling is SUPER strong and his top game is even better....would be a tough W for Maia IMO...

That is true.. Do you really need elite Jits when you are the better wrestler and controlling the fight in top position though? I don't remember Jake defending very many sub attempts by Maia when he had him on his back..

One mistake by Covington though and Maia can turn the tables in a flash, a sweep late perhaps and Covington will be in trouble... If Maia can leach and work his way onto Covington's back in a clinch against the cage or something and Covington will be in trouble also..

[PaperTrail07]

For sure....Cov will need to fight very smart but his strength could help him wiggle out of a few bad spots....

That is true.. Do you really need elite Jits when you are the better wrestler and controlling the fight in top position though? I don't remember Jake defending very many sub attempts by Maia when he had him on his back..

One mistake by Covington though and Maia can turn the tables in a flash, a sweep late perhaps and Covington will be in trouble... If Maia can leach and work his way onto Covington's back in a clinch against the cage or something and Covington will be in trouble also..

[MMANick]

I'm guessing Covington has ENOUGH jits to feel and react to what Maia will be trying to do. You can be a strong ass wrestler, but going up against Maia w/ minimal Jits will get you subbed quick.

Again, I'm on Colby, just saying...

[Shagdogy]

Just getting around to taking a look at this card.

Is there an mma fighter with more names than Deiveson "Daica Deus da Guerra" Figeuredo Alcantra?

Nope. I do think he's got a decent shot here. If he gets to 2-1 I'd take him. He seems to have real deceptive power.

[Shagdogy]

Jared Gordon is a good bet vs Dias IMO. Seems like Dias only really could win by sub or shady decision. I think if it goes the distance Gordon will control too much of the action to even lose in Brazil. He should be the aggressor on the feet, have the better hands, higher volume, and control the grappling too. Outside of getting a deep body lock to trip, Dias really has nothing to offer Gordon. Even if he gets that takedown, like he did 3 times vs Fili, Gordon will likely get up without facing much trouble at all.

[JIBBBY]

Have to Agree Jibbs...Maia is willing to go to his back and he will expect to sweep Cov and I don't see it happening......he went from -130 to -175 most places....Covington's clinch and grappling is SUPER strong and his top game is even better....would be a tough W for Maia IMO...

I'm just interested to see if Covington try's to keep the fight standing like T-Wood did? It's a possibility, but I don't think Cov is all that much better of a striker then DM if that's the case.. We'll see?

It's an interesting fight to try reason out and where it could and will go.. Covington's bread and butter is his pressure, pace, wrestling and top game that's all I know... He's damn good at it too...

[Shagdogy]

I think Marshman is too big of a dog. His hands are fast, accurate, and powerful and he should have an advantage in all of those areas over ACJ. On the ground, obviously it's no contest and ACJ will dominate, but he hasn't really shown especially good offensive wrestling. If Marshman can be on feet more often than not, there's a chance his hands do some good work. ACJ is rightly favored, but I think the line is too wide.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I think Marshman is too big of a dog. His hands are fast, accurate, and powerful and he should have an advantage in all of those areas over ACJ. On the ground, obviously it's no contest and ACJ will dominate, but he hasn't really shown especially good offensive wrestling. If Marshman can be on feet more often than not, there's a chance his hands do some good work. ACJ is rightly favored, but I think the line is too wide.

Can Marshman win by anything other than a KO/TKO here?

[Hugo de Naranja]

Nope. I do think he's got a decent shot here. If he gets to 2-1 I'd take him. He seems to have real deceptive power.

Although I think Brooks Decision is the most likely outcome in this bout, I love the value on Figueredo ITD at (+450). Already tossed some coin on it.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I think if Lineker does lose to Vera, it will look very similar to Jessica Andrade vs. Marion Reneau where Andrade Knocked Reneau Down before diving into a Triangle Choke in a fight where she was winning.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I really like Font as a parlay piece at (-145) since betting action has been coming on Munhoz. Font has a much more well put together game and I think he will be able to control where the fight happens. That said, Munhoz has an AMAZING Guillotine (the best in the UFC imo) and he is capable of finding it from all sorts of different positions. So I'm playing Font ML and Font -3.5 (+125) with a hedge on Munhoz Sub, which is still at (+609) after opening at a crazy (+1020).

[turbozed]

I like the Figueiredo scorecards = no action line at -115. Down to -140 but think that's still good too.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I like the Figueiredo scorecards = no action line at -115. Down to -140 but think that's still good too.

Agreed. I think he is the much more likely finisher. Figgy has 11 finishes in his 12 fights including his UFC debut and wins over some solid Brazilian regional fighters.

[Shagdogy]

Agreed. I think he is the much more likely finisher. Figgy has 11 finishes in his 12 fights including his UFC debut and wins over some solid Brazilian regional fighters.

Brooks is hittable in the standup too, and was rocked by Shelton. I don't think Fig can stuff a deep takedown but maybe he can move enough and strike enough to keep distance. Maybe? He does have a problem with caught kicks but that was in a fight against a primarily striker that I saw so maybe he will chill with that vs Brooks.

[Shagdogy]

Can Marshman win by anything other than a KO/TKO here?

No I don't think so. Also remember in Brazil you have to damn near kill a Brazilian to get the ref to stop it for TKO. But Marshman should have every advantage on the feet except chin, which is probably even. Marshman TKO/KO would be the only way to play him.

[turbozed]

Santos/Hermansson

Jack H is coming off of two very dominant wins via dominant position GnP. It seems pretty obvious that he'll have the same gameplan here against Santos. Santos has shown huge improvement since b2b losses to Moose and Spicely. His sub loss to Spicely knocked his market price way down and we profited from that in his two wins since. Santos has the advantage in the size, strength, and striking department. If Santos shows same level of counterwrestling as in Meerschardt fight, he may be able to keep this standing and punish JH for any bad shots. In that fight, Santos was very quick to get his hips back and, more impressively, was so comfortable that he immediately looked to punish GM with strikes which made it difficult for GM to chain TD attempts. On the feet, Santos has the advantage with power and range. He may not choose to kick in the early stages since he has had it caught before. Santos switches stances but doesn't throw many punches in SP. If he employs that as a tactic, he could have an even bigger advantage as Vivisection pointed out that JH's ability to close distance against SP is poor with a lacking jab. Just from eyeball test, it looks like Santos is a level of strength above JH. More likely than not, he can throw JH around and keep the fight standing. It'll be tough to get Santos down and he is quick to get up. Santos as an underdog at home is hard to pass up. If Santos continues to improve from fight to fight as he has since Spicely loss, he's got the athleticism to run through JH and potentially higher ranked fighters at 185. So I hit the ML at +110 now.


I also think the even odds for over 1.5 rounds is a good price. Both Santos and JH have solid chins and I don't think either guy is going to steamroll the other. The two might neutralize each other on the ground. They've been finishing their own opponents quickly, but JH has trouble getting into range to work his game if Santos is in southpaw stance. Also, Santos has been working on his pacing and patience. He'll pounce on an opportunity or a bad shot, but he doesn't go balls out for the finish.

Let me know if you guys have anything to add or criticize from the above.

[turbozed]

Luque vs. Price


Been looking for a good time to fade Niko Price. He seems to have overperformed in his UFC appearances. Prior to getting called up to the UFC, he had never faced a tough test in the Florida regional circuit. Going into the UFC, he got Thatch who apparently any competent grappler can beat. Was losing the striking exchanges with Morono before the odd KO at the end of Rd2. The huge KO win against Jouban also didn't tell us much except that Price has 'weird power' like Oezdemir.

Of course this means that he's always a threat. Luque took this fight in place of Chagas on short notice. Appears to be only around 10 days based on mma news. Hopefully he was already prepared because his cardio was a huge factor in his loss to Edwards. That's something we hadn't seen in his prior fights so maybe it was the international travel to England that phased him? In 100% condition, Luque should probably be a big favorite. He has more technically sound striking, his hands appear to be faster, and he has good distance control and movement. He throws feints and mixes up his timing and movement well. He also pressures well, which should be a problem for Price who is used to having space to work his rangy awkward striking game.

Even losing the striking exchanges to Morono for the better part of 2 rounds, Price didn't mix in a single takedown, which may indicate a weakness in wrestling (either guy could've sealed or stole rounds with a TD and a minute of top control in that fight). Luque can and does mix up striking and grappling well. And if he's able to take down Price during exchanges, this will increase his advantage further. If not for his poor performance in the last Edwards fight and the late notice, we should be licking our chops to back Luque here. Unfortunately the conditioning is a worry so will need to see how Luque looks and possibly find out what he was up to in the weeks leading up to getting the call to be in this fight.

No bet so far

[PaperTrail07]

Where I stand HUGO
Leaning in the direction of the home team

Dias +140 (by decision)
Niko Price +110 TKO
Santos +100 LATE TKO possible DEC
Columbo/Golm Over 1.5 +105
Brooks -160
Santos/Hermannson over 1.5 -110


Straight Cash

[Hugo de Naranja]

Where I stand HUGO
Leaning in the direction of the home team

Dias +140 (by decision)
Niko Price +110 TKO
Santos +100 LATE TKO possible DEC
Columbo/Golm Over 1.5 +105
Brooks -160
Santos/Hermannson over 1.5 -110


Straight Cash

I hope we both hit Price. I'm against you on some of the others.

[PaperTrail07]

Good Breakdown....Feel price is loaded with intangibles-weird to say I know....but he has crazy heart and determination to win....might have to kill the guy to get him out...also like you said...weird power...just cant explain it....gritty fighter....Rocky Edwards is a physical presence and wears people down so I don't even hate on Luque for that loss but besides catching BM early he does not really have any impressive wins either....I think if it turns into a war it will favor price GLL

Luque vs. Price


Been looking for a good time to fade Niko Price. He seems to have overperformed in his UFC appearances. Prior to getting called up to the UFC, he had never faced a tough test in the Florida regional circuit. Going into the UFC, he got Thatch who apparently any competent grappler can beat. Was losing the striking exchanges with Morono before the odd KO at the end of Rd2. The huge KO win against Jouban also didn't tell us much except that Price has 'weird power' like Oezdemir.

Of course this means that he's always a threat. Luque took this fight in place of Chagas on short notice. Appears to be only around 10 days based on mma news. Hopefully he was already prepared because his cardio was a huge factor in his loss to Edwards. That's something we hadn't seen in his prior fights so maybe it was the international travel to England that phased him? In 100% condition, Luque should probably be a big favorite. He has more technically sound striking, his hands appear to be faster, and he has good distance control and movement. He throws feints and mixes up his timing and movement well. He also pressures well, which should be a problem for Price who is used to having space to work his rangy awkward striking game.

Even losing the striking exchanges to Morono for the better part of 2 rounds, Price didn't mix in a single takedown, which may indicate a weakness in wrestling (either guy could've sealed or stole rounds with a TD and a minute of top control in that fight). Luque can and does mix up striking and grappling well. And if he's able to take down Price during exchanges, this will increase his advantage further. If not for his poor performance in the last Edwards fight and the late notice, we should be licking our chops to back Luque here. Unfortunately the conditioning is a worry so will need to see how Luque looks and possibly find out what he was up to in the weeks leading up to getting the call to be in this fight.

No bet so far

[PaperTrail07]

HUGO-not sure if you noticed at all but that 490 I lost to you is 32 points AWAY LOL..... Been putting points on that post

[Hugo de Naranja]

HUGO-not sure if you noticed at all but that 490 I lost to you is 32 points AWAY LOL..... Been putting points on that post

Yup I was just checking that actually. Thank you for following through

[Hugo de Naranja]

No I don't think so. Also remember in Brazil you have to damn near kill a Brazilian to get the ref to stop it for TKO. But Marshman should have every advantage on the feet except chin, which is probably even. Marshman TKO/KO would be the only way to play him.

Yup I think that is a great play/hedge at (+850).

[JIBBBY]

Cage Warriors 88 later today if you guys get bored and want a little action...

Cage Warriors 88 - Lightweight 5 rounds - Echo Arena - Liverpool, England - UFC Fight Pass
Sat 10/28		4001 Alexander Jacobsen		+130
5:00PM		4002 Chris Fishgold		-170
Cage Warriors 88 - Middleweight 5 rounds - Echo Arena - Liverpool, England - UFC Fight Pass
Sat 10/28		4101 Victor Cheng		-150
4:30PM		4102 Lee Chadwick		+110
Cage Warriors 88 - Lightweight 3 rounds - Echo Arena - Liverpool, England - UFC Fight Pass
Sat 10/28		4201 Soren Bak		-180
4:00PM		4202 Martin Stapleton		+140
Cage Warriors 88 - Flyweight 3 rounds - Echo Arena - Liverpool, England - UFC Fight Pass
Sat 10/28		4301 Priscilla de Souza		+130
3:30PM		4302 Molly McCann		-170

http://cagewarriors.com/hometown-heroes-fight-for-2-world-titles-at-cw88/

[PaperTrail07]

Always

Yup I was just checking that actually. Thank you for following through

[PaperTrail07]

Hacran Dias looked JACKED.....leggo
ACJ looked like he has a lot of size over jack Marshman...

[Hugo de Naranja]

Looks like everyone made weight for this event, even my boy Lineker.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

Deiveson Figueiredo stuck out to me during the official weigh-ins as looking sucked in and sickly...looks like he had a rough weight cut

everyone else looked pretty good