UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Correia (june 17, 2017)

[JIBBBY]

JIBBERS you gonna manage to watch this thing live? ??

Does the sun shine Paper? ..

I'll take an afternoon nap, maybe an early evening nap set the alarm and power it.. Next day be a zombie if need be on Sunday...

[turbozed]

I'm fading all Asians with this event except for Li Jingliang..

Not really an exception since Leech is fighting a Guamanian which is pretty much Asian (Pacific Islander Asian). Inoue should win but he's also fighting an asian dude (Filipino).

[PaperTrail07]

Awesome----Ill be up as welll

Does the sun shine Paper? ..

I'll take an afternoon nap, maybe an early evening nap set the alarm and power it.. Next day be a zombie if need be on Sunday...

[NUTSonYAchin]

Jibbby betting strategy that I agree with: If the talent/skills appear to be equal, bet on black or fade yellow

[Shagdogy]

Do a Youtube search for his name in kanji, which is "井上直樹" and a few his fights will show up. I usually do this for Korean and Chinese fighters to find tape as well.

Edit: Just watched all three fights. Kid is slick. Great transitions on the ground and a lightning fast armbar. Striking looks pretty crisp and he is super lanky. He's Mizuki Inoue's kid brother. I'd have to imagine that DEEP and the Japanese regionals are at another level than URCC in the Philippines.

Great post. Thanks. Keep coming back with the name translations in the future!

[Shagdogy]

Early stages of capping and right now I really like Russell Doane at underdog value. This guy has fought some very very tough competition and managed to have moments in each of his most recent fights minus a short notice task against Bektic which is an extremely tough spot. From what I can see on Kwak, he doesn't have the ability to dictate the fight. Has some good crisp striking, but his chin isn't as good as Doane's and he hasn't put anyone away in years. Doane stays even on the feet, does more damage to the less durable Kwak and if he drops him or needs to change it up, can get him on the ground and have a strong advantage. Liking Doane here a lot.

[JIBBBY]

Jibbby betting strategy that I agree with: If the talent/skills appear to be equal, bet on black or fade yellow

That has always been my strategy at the UFC level and it usually works as silly as it sounds.. When I go against it I usually lose...

[Shagdogy]

Not really an exception since Leech is fighting a Guamanian which is pretty much Asian (Pacific Islander Asian). Inoue should win but he's also fighting an asian dude (Filipino).

Camacho is from Guam but trains stateside, which I think is relevant. Been around this guy before, many years ago at a Lloyd Irvin BJJ gym. He was always viewed as one of the up and comers around there, strong BJJ and some judo I think. Can't remember if I ever actually rolled with him, though he woulda destroyed me either way. I remember watching him lose his fight to get into the TUF house and then never really heard much since. Haven't been around that gym in a long time.

Anyway, the BJJ and judo is relevant because I remember Jingliang struggles with takedowns, especially early in fights when both fighters are fresh. Don't write Camacho off as a random local circuit southeast Asia guy. He has American ground game training and has for a long time. I haven't really watched his fights yet, but give him a look before you assume he won't be able to get this fight down. Jingliang doesn't offer much off his back.

[Sanity Check]

One thing about chinese fighters, a lot of them seem to be based out of beijing.

Have to wonder what condition their lungs are in training out of one of the most polluted cities in the world.

Smog cardio training doesn't seem like a winning strategy to me for some whatever reason.

[JIBBBY]

One thing about chinese fighters, a lot of them seem to be based out of beijing.

Have to wonder what condition their lungs are in training out of one of the most polluted cities in the world.

Smog cardio training doesn't seem like a winning strategy to me for some whatever reason.

If anything it lets them breath better during the fights... Lol... It's like altitude training.. ...

If you are doing cardio daily a little smog won't slow you down.. Lungs are self cleaning... I don't think that's as big of an issue as whether or not they are training with really legit wrestlers and Jits practitioners in China like the do here in the States...

Leech by KO for me..

[Sanity Check]

Ning Guangyou is one beijing fighter whose cardio never seems to last more than 1 round.

Li Jingliang hasn't been pushed by anyone in recent times to show how good or bad his cardio is.

Jingliang was given some of the easiest opponents the UFC could find to try to build up a chinese MMA star and help grow MMA in china.

China is so corrupt. Its hard to support chinese fighters.

[Sanity Check]

BTW

Winkeljohn says Andrei Arlovski wasn't able to make it to Jackson's MMA to train for this fight.

That could be one reason Arlovski is a big underdog.

[Shagdogy]

Camacho is from Guam but trains stateside, which I think is relevant. Been around this guy before, many years ago at a Lloyd Irvin BJJ gym. He was always viewed as one of the up and comers around there, strong BJJ and some judo I think. Can't remember if I ever actually rolled with him, though he woulda destroyed me either way. I remember watching him lose his fight to get into the TUF house and then never really heard much since. Haven't been around that gym in a long time.

Anyway, the BJJ and judo is relevant because I remember Jingliang struggles with takedowns, especially early in fights when both fighters are fresh. Don't write Camacho off as a random local circuit southeast Asia guy. He has American ground game training and has for a long time. I haven't really watched his fights yet, but give him a look before you assume he won't be able to get this fight down. Jingliang doesn't offer much off his back.

Nevermind. Watched some Camacho. I'm with you all, Jingliang by KO/TKO, maybe hedge with Camacho KO/TKO just in case, but prob not necessary. Jingliang should be too much for him.

[Thor4140]

Fight three and four is better than fight 1 and 2

[JIBBBY]

BTW

Winkeljohn says Andrei Arlovski wasn't able to make it to Jackson's MMA to train for this fight.

That could be one reason Arlovski is a big underdog.

I read that.. I'm gonna fade him and by KO as he's facing a decent striker..

I was originally giving AA a chance at first glance but not anymore..

[turbozed]

One thing about chinese fighters, a lot of them seem to be based out of beijing.

Have to wonder what condition their lungs are in training out of one of the most polluted cities in the world.

Smog cardio training doesn't seem like a winning strategy to me for some whatever reason.

It's going to be better than Camacho's cardio for sure. Camacho on 11 day notice (not sure if he was already in fighting shape). Camacho's striking gets pretty sloppy after the first half of Round 1 (see the Han Seul Kim and Yusuke Kasuya fights).

[Hugo de Naranja]

Early stages of capping and right now I really like Russell Doane at underdog value. This guy has fought some very very tough competition and managed to have moments in each of his most recent fights minus a short notice task against Bektic which is an extremely tough spot. From what I can see on Kwak, he doesn't have the ability to dictate the fight. Has some good crisp striking, but his chin isn't as good as Doane's and he hasn't put anyone away in years. Doane stays even on the feet, does more damage to the less durable Kwak and if he drops him or needs to change it up, can get him on the ground and have a strong advantage. Liking Doane here a lot.

I think Doane finds ways to lose but he has mostly fought wrestlers and grapplers. His striking is very good but Fight IQ is terrible. Seems like a winnable matchup for him.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Leech's GnP is amazing

[Hugo de Naranja]

@JIBBBY Did Leech ever fight Erick Silva? I think that is Dong Hyun Kim in the second gif

[Hugo de Naranja]

BTW

Winkeljohn says Andrei Arlovski wasn't able to make it to Jackson's MMA to train for this fight.

That could be one reason Arlovski is a big underdog.

He's a big underdog because he's been finished in four straight fights

[JIBBBY]

@JIBBBY Did Leech ever fight Erick Silva? I think that is Dong Hyun Kim in the second gif

Oh I think you are right..Couldn't tell from the back side of the Asian.. Wrong gif my bad.. Good eye Hugo..

Never the less I was trying illustrate that the Leech has some KO power.. 3 of his last 4 fights were won by KO in the UFC. I always look at what have you done lately in fighters and at the UFC level....http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Jingliang-Li-26381

[JIBBBY]

He's a big underdog because he's been finished in four straight fights

To AA's credit he has been fighting beasts and some of the best strikers in the HW division in those last 4 fight losses. He has been looking for outs quickly in those fights after being lightly touched. He may just be showing up for those Zuffa paychecks now...http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Andrei-Arlovski-270

[turbozed]

Early stages of capping and right now I really like Russell Doane at underdog value. This guy has fought some very very tough competition and managed to have moments in each of his most recent fights minus a short notice task against Bektic which is an extremely tough spot. From what I can see on Kwak, he doesn't have the ability to dictate the fight. Has some good crisp striking, but his chin isn't as good as Doane's and he hasn't put anyone away in years. Doane stays even on the feet, does more damage to the less durable Kwak and if he drops him or needs to change it up, can get him on the ground and have a strong advantage. Liking Doane here a lot.

Thanks for sharing.

Just watched the tape on both and agree. Doane's striking against Pedro Munhoz looked at least as good as Kwak's. Even Jerrod Sanders was able to touch Kwak in the 2nd round by level changing and faking the shot. If Doane can mix up the striking and takedowns, he's got a better shot at winning. There's also the possibility that Doane is able to just keep top control on Kwak. He was able to get on top of Alcantara in their fight for most of the 3rd round. Kwak was able to stand up each time against Brett Johns' repeated takedowns, but not sure if Johns has good top control with a Judo background as Doane will be able to as a wrestler. Doane decision +389 is great value, and even straight up ML as underdog looks good.

[JIBBBY]

^ Good stuff from both Shag and Turbo..

[turbozed]

I think Doane finds ways to lose but he has mostly fought wrestlers and grapplers. His striking is very good but Fight IQ is terrible. Seems like a winnable matchup for him.

Agree that Doane's fight IQ is his biggest weakness. He doesn't lack in the athleticism, striking, chin, or wrestling departments. He also is way too comfortable giving up his back. Lucky for him, Kwak doesn't have a submission victory. If Doane has any semblance of a gameplan, it's too mix up the striking and takedowns and tire Kwak out since his strikes lose their snap and he's a lot more hittable (like in his fight against Brett Johns).

If Doane isn't able to take Kwak down, it might look a lot like the Kwak vs. Kyle Aguon fight. But Doane seems to be a much better striker and wrestler, so I don't think Kwak will be quite as comfortable.

[JIBBBY]

MMA prelims - parts 1 and 2...




170 lbs.: Li Jingliang vs. Frank Camacho

Li Jingliang (12-4) — thankfully re-signed after a brief scare — has established himself as China’s top mixed martial arts (MMA) fighter with three brutal knockouts in his last four fights. His last fight in particular was one for the ages, an absolute slugfest with Bobby Nash that Li ended violently in the waning seconds of the second round.
“The Leech” has knocked out and submitted four opponents apiece.
Brazilian jiu-jitsu standout Frank Camacho (20-4) returned to the Pacific circuit after his unsuccessful bid on The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 16, winning eight of his last 10 bouts. The run includes five knockouts, two submissions and a decision over UFC vet Keita Nakamura.
Redditor Frank “The Crank” steps in for the injured Jonathan Meunier on less than two weeks’ notice.
This could wind up being a whole lot of fun. Both men are capable on the ground, but completely down to brawl. I’ve got Li winning this, and it’s not just because of the short notice.
Camacho appeared to gas early in an intense brawl with Gun Hwan Park last month, while Li proved he could slug it out well into the second round against Nash. Further, Li’s enormously strong and a skilled enough wrestler to dictate the ground engagements, an advantage buoyed by the fact that Camacho is small enough to regularly make Lightweight. Li trades bombs with him until Camacho’s gas tank starts to empty, then polishes him off with ground-and-pound.
Prediction: Li by second-round technical knockout

135 lbs.: Kwan Ho Kwak vs. Russell Doane

During his run on the Asian and Pacific circuits, Kwan Ho Kwak (9-1) picked up both the Top FC and PXC Bantamweight belts, defending the former with a decision over former UFC fighter Alptekin Ozkilic. This set up a UFC debut against fellow prospect Brett Johns, who defeated Kwak by decision in a terrific fight.
Six of his nine wins have come by knockout.
Russell Doane (14-7) — who won the Tachi Palace Fights Bantamweight belt with a knockout of Jared Papazian — started his UFC career strong with wins over Leandro Issa and Marcus Brimage. He’s since lost four straight, including first-round submission losses to Mirsad Bektic and Pedro Munhoz in his last two fights.
He has knocked out six professional opponents and submitted another five.
Doane’s current stretch isn’t as bad as it looks on paper considering that two of those losses came against the aforementioned Bektic and Munhoz and a third was a close defeat against Iuri Alcantara. Still, I think Kwak’s got this. He’s got the heavier hands of the two and excels at beating up opponentswhile they pursue takedowns or try to disengage.
The big issue is that Kwak doesn’t pace himself well, but Doane doesn’t offer the sort of suffocating pressure that Brett Johns does. Kwak is a strong enough scrambler to avoid submission threats and the power differential gives him the edge in a ranged striking battle. He wears down Doane on the inside before putting him away with punches.
Prediction: Kwak by second-round technical knockout

125 lbs.: Naoki Inouevs. Carls John de Tomas

Naoki Inoue (10-0) — brother of Invicta standout Mizuki — has emerged as one of Japan’s brightest young talents at the age of just 19. His run in the venerable DEEP promotion has seen him score seven submission wins, six of them in the first round.
He stands an inch taller than Carls John de Tomas (8-0) at 5’8.”
CJ “The Golden Boy” de Tomas has spent his entire professional career in his native Philippines, seven of his eight fights taking place under the URCC promotion. He won its Flyweight title in 2016 with a decision over champion Hideo Morikawa, then defeated Alvin Ramirez in his first title defense.
He has submitted at least three opponents as a professional, depending on which site you take as gospel.
The only footage I could find of Inoue came from his quick finishes, which doesn’t tell me all that much. I do like what I saw, though — he’s got solid movement, a crisp jab and a heavy right hand behind it to complement his powerful grappling. The takedown defense is still a question mark, though, and that could cost him here.
Meanwhile, de Tomas, I have a better idea of. He fights cautiously, engaging with the occasional roundhouse or straight left until his opponent gives him an opening for the takedown. From there, he works from guard until they either slip out or the referee stands them up, at which point he repeats. It’s not a style that’ll win many fans, but it’s one that could trouble Inoue if he gets too comfortable off of his back.
In the end, though. I’m leaning toward Inoue’s submission prowess. He locks up something from the triangle series early on.
Prediction: Inoue via first-round submission

135 lbs.: Lucie Pudilova vs. Ji Yeon Kim

Lucie Pudilova (6-2) put her 2015 loss to Lina Lansberg behind her with three straight wins, two of them by submission. When Veronica Macedo pulled out of a fight with Lansberg on short notice, Pudilova stepped up and very nearly beat the Swedish striker, inducing some grotesque swelling with sharp punches.
At 5’8,” she is two inches taller than the debuting Ji Yeon Kim (6-0-2).
Kim faced 10-3 Shizuka Sugiyama and 14-4 Takayo Hashi in her first two professional bouts, fighting both of them to draws. She has since won six straight, including a decision over Hashi to become the DEEP Jewels Bantamweight champion.
She’s submitted three professional opponents and (T)KO’d another.
This fight reminds me a lot of last Saturday’s J.J. Aldrich vs. Chan-Mi Jeon fight ... and not just because of the debutant’s nationality. Kim has that same sort of deliberate, gritty striking style and she’s going up against an experienced striker with the tools to exploit the holes in her game.
Pudilova showed that she can handle herself against a top-tier Muay Thai fighter in the Lansberg rematch. She ought to have even more success against Kim, whose lack of speed and fluidity will doom her to a decision loss.
Prediction: Pudilovavia unanimous decision


155 lbs.: Takanori Gomi vs. Jon Tuck

Once seemingly on the verge of a resurgence with a 3-1 run -- the sole loss a garbage decision against Diego Sanchez — Takanori Gomi (35-12) enters Saturday’s bout on the longest losing streak of his career. “Fireball Kid” has been stopped in the first round three straight times, most recently by Jim Miller back in Sept. 2016.
He stands three inches shorter than the 5’11” Jon Tuck (9-4).
“Super Saiyan” rebounded from the broken toe that ended his The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 15 run to win three of his first five UFC bouts, including a bonus-winning submission of Tae Hyun Bang in Manila. He has since lost consecutive split decisions to Josh Emmett and Damien Brown, the latter of which saw several media observers score it for Tuck.
Tuck — who has never been stopped — has knocked out and submitted four foes apiece.
Look, I’m the biggest Gomi fan on this site and even I know how this one’s going to go. Gomi’s going to land a couple of jabs and body shots, just enough to get some hope a-brewing, and then Tuck’s going to take him down and beat him to a pulp. The only thing I’m unsure of is whether Tuck will decide to pound him out or just lock up the rear-naked choke.
Gomi’s submission defense has never been elite and he no longer has the takedown defense to compensate. Tuck’s iffy gas tank isn’t enough for me to pick the fading Fireball, no matter how much my heart wants to. Tuck takes a couple of hard punches before dragging him to the mat and securing the early finish.
Prediction: Tuck via first-round submission

265 lbs.: Cyril Asker vs. Walt Harris

After a loss to top Irish prospect Karl Moore in his third professional fight, Cyril Asker (8-2) went on to win five straight, submitting UFC vet Ruan Potts and winning the EFC Heavyweight title one fight later. Jared Cannonier gave him a rude welcome to the world’s largest mixed martial arts (MMA) organization via first-round knockout, but Asker evened up his UFC record in January with a first-round technical knockout of Dmitry Smolyakov.
He will give up three inches of both height and reach to Walt Harris (9-5).
Winless in his first three UFC appearances, Harris finally got over the hump with a knockout of “Lookin’ for a Fight” product Cody East, only to drop a split decision to Shamil Abdurakhimov soon after. Undaunted, he took on fellow hulk Chase Sherman in January and unleashed one of the year’s most brutal finishes.
All nine of his wins have come by knockout, eight of them in the first round.
I will be very, very surprised if Harris doesn’t tear Asker to pieces. The big man looks to finally have gotten his game together and his power and speed are legitimately frightening. Asker’s game, no doubt, but he’s also slow and easy to hurt. He simply doesn’t have the technique to pick apart Harris at range the way Abdurakhimov did or overwhelm him on the mat the way Jared Rosholt and Soa Palelei did.
Harris’ massive physical advantages are too much for Asker to just grit his way through. Harris thumps him in the first round.
Prediction: Harris via first-round knockout

145 lbs.: Alex Caceres vs. Rolando Dy

After his five-fight unbeaten streak gave way to three consecutive losses, Alex Caceres (12-10) returned to Featherweight and promptly defeated Masio Fullen and Cole Miller to earn a main event slot opposite Yair Rodriguez. “Bruce Leeroy” couldn’t quite top the athletic “Pantera,” nor survive the venomous grappling of Jason Knight one fight later.
He owns five professional wins by submission and two by knockout.
Rolando Dy (8-4) — the son of former WBC Super Featherweight champion Rolando Navarrete — made his name in PXC with two wars against Bantamweight champ Kyle Aguon. Though he came up on the wrong end of a split decision both times, he proved his mettle by defeating his next three opponents. He replaces the injured Guan Wang on around three weeks’ notice.
Looking at Dy’s PXC fights, I see a capable, no-frills Muay Thai specialist with decently heavy hands and a knack for finding the Thai plum and other advantageous grips when his opponent ties up. His main issue is that he doesn’t set up his kicks, which makes it easy to catch them and maneuver him around the cage.
Caceres has never been a noteworthy takedown artist, but when given these sorts of opportunities, it wouldn’t surprise me to see him down Dy and dominate from top position. Even if he doesn’t, he’s busier on the feet and hard enough to hit that he’ll cruise to a decision win.
Prediction: Caceres via unanimous decision

125 lbs.: Justin Scoggins vs. Yuta Sasaki

A disastrous weight cut sent Justin Scoggins (11-3) back to the Bantamweight division, where he took on fellow prospect Pedro Munhoz in Sao Paulo. “Tank” appeared firmly in control, but a slip and subsequent ill-advised shot put him right in Munhoz’s signature guillotine.
Six of his seven stoppage wins have come by knockout.
Despite a win over Willie Gates in his Flyweight debut, few gave Yuta Sasaki (19-4-2)much of a chance against Wilson Reis when they squared off at UFC 208. Sasaki — heedless of the +455 odds — gave Reis everything he could handle, though he ultimately lost a unanimous decision.
At 5’10”, he is three inches taller than Scoggins.
I firmly believe that Scoggins has the potential to be a champion. His wrestling is terrific, stout enough to let him flick out side and hook kicks with impunity, and he has legitimate stopping power when he decides to go for it.
That fight IQ, though ...
He was running roughshod over John Moraga and Pedro Munhoz before he decided to stick his neck in their signature chokes. That said, he’ll need a brain fart of epic proportions to lose this one. Sasaki’s no joke, but he does his best work in the clinch and Scoggins is incredibly adept at maintaining range. “Tank” chews up “Ulka” with hard kicks before putting him away somewhere in the second round.
Prediction: Scoggins via second-round technical knockout


Current UFC "Prelims" Prediction Record for 2017: 67-34 (1 NC)

[Shagdogy]

Agree that Doane's fight IQ is his biggest weakness. He doesn't lack in the athleticism, striking, chin, or wrestling departments. He also is way too comfortable giving up his back. Lucky for him, Kwak doesn't have a submission victory. If Doane has any semblance of a gameplan, it's too mix up the striking and takedowns and tire Kwak out since his strikes lose their snap and he's a lot more hittable (like in his fight against Brett Johns).

If Doane isn't able to take Kwak down, it might look a lot like the Kwak vs. Kyle Aguon fight. But Doane seems to be a much better striker and wrestler, so I don't think Kwak will be quite as comfortable.

Yup... we all seem to have this fight nailed down. Fight IQ is definitely a weakness for Doane, but if anything it's because he wrestles more than he should, but against Kwak, that's probably not a bad thing. I think worst case scenario, Kwak is able to defend takedowns and keep it a striking match, but he's not going to take over in the grappling and do anything offensive to Doane. On the feet, they both have similar skills and good chins but I would argue Doane's chin is a bit better and his strikes are more varied.

A few points that also seem to sway in Doane's favor: 1) the level of competition he's faced is much better. He is clearly the more seasoned and tested fighter. 2) He fights out of Max Holloway's camp, right? Momentum coming out of there is at an all time high. He should be carrying some confidence and excitement into the cage as well.

The only negative? That trip to Singapore... long way to go for a fight. I have Doane capped around -180 so I like the value here. It's already moving for him a bit.

[Shagdogy]

^ Also, Doane/Kwak is set at o/u 1.5 rounds. I don't see this fight ending early. At -220 the over is a bit juicy but I just don't see a quick end to this one.

[Shagdogy]

I've won some good bets on Walt Harris against East and Sherman, but I just can't take him here vs. Asker. Not at this price. Asker's cardio is a serious threat to Harris as long as he doesn't get KO'd early. It's no easy task but I think Asker's a live dog here. He either gets his lights put out, or wins the fight IMO.

[GunShard]

Jibbby betting strategy that I agree with: If the talent/skills appear to be equal, bet on black or fade yellow

I thought about that betting theory many years ago. As racist as it sounds it seems like the black fighter has a high chance of defeating the asian fighter when they are matched up. I can't confirm this though.

[turbozed]

145 lbs.: Alex Caceres vs. Rolando Dy

After his five-fight unbeaten streak gave way to three consecutive losses, Alex Caceres (12-10) returned to Featherweight and promptly defeated Masio Fullen and Cole Miller to earn a main event slot opposite Yair Rodriguez. “Bruce Leeroy” couldn’t quite top the athletic “Pantera,” nor survive the venomous grappling of Jason Knight one fight later.
He owns five professional wins by submission and two by knockout.
Rolando Dy (8-4) — the son of former WBC Super Featherweight champion Rolando Navarrete — made his name in PXC with two wars against Bantamweight champ Kyle Aguon. Though he came up on the wrong end of a split decision both times, he proved his mettle by defeating his next three opponents. He replaces the injured Guan Wang on around three weeks’ notice.
Looking at Dy’s PXC fights, I see a capable, no-frills Muay Thai specialist with decently heavy hands and a knack for finding the Thai plum and other advantageous grips when his opponent ties up. His main issue is that he doesn’t set up his kicks, which makes it easy to catch them and maneuver him around the cage.
Caceres has never been a noteworthy takedown artist, but when given these sorts of opportunities, it wouldn’t surprise me to see him down Dy and dominate from top position. Even if he doesn’t, he’s busier on the feet and hard enough to hit that he’ll cruise to a decision win.
Prediction: Caceres via unanimous decision

I don't think whoever wrote this analysis got a chance to see Rolando Dy's latest fight against Aydin Mrouki in PXC 55. Dy sets up those leg kicks pretty damn well, either coming off a counter, or finishing his combos with them. Some of them look pretty damn good actually. Dutch kickboxing style.

Here is the video:

I think there may be some good value on Dy here. His strong points match up well against Caceres. If anything, it's Caceres that throws naked telegraphed kicks, which Dy would be able to exploit, being a good kick catcher. Dy has fast hands and good counter punching. For all of Bruce Leroy's reach, he doesn't use it too well, being a jump in and jump out fighter. Kanehara and, to some extent, Jason Knight was able to catch Caceres coming in on counters. Caceres showed some improvement in distance management in his latest fight with Jason Knight and showed better entrances and exist off angles, but still was too deep to stuff Knight's takedowns. Dy isn't quite the pressure fighter or wrestler as Knight but Caceres would have to manage distance much better than he has in order to avoid counters, kicks, takedowns, or clinch engagements which Dy is pretty strong at.

Small consideration but Singapore is just a short flight from Dy's home in the Philippines and Caceres did not look good at all the last time he traveled across the pond to fight in Asia. Caceres is entertaining, and probably should be a slight favorite here but his funky style leaves a lot of openings. He's not a solid gameplanner or fight-winner as his record shows.

Conclusion: At +250 or so, Dy might be worth a shot.

[Rich Benjamins]

I put a bet on Inoue. De Tomas missed weight. In addition to Inoue's other advantages, the missed weight could be a side effect of incorrect training or other issues in his life that affected his training.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I don't think whoever wrote this analysis got a chance to see Rolando Dy's latest fight against Aydin Mrouki in PXC 55. Dy sets up those leg kicks pretty damn well, either coming off a counter, or finishing his combos with them. Some of them look pretty damn good actually. Dutch kickboxing style.

Here is the video:

I think there may be some good value on Dy here. His strong points match up well against Caceres. If anything, it's Caceres that throws naked telegraphed kicks, which Dy would be able to exploit, being a good kick catcher. Dy has fast hands and good counter punching. For all of Bruce Leroy's reach, he doesn't use it too well, being a jump in and jump out fighter. Kanehara and, to some extent, Jason Knight was able to catch Caceres coming in on counters. Caceres showed some improvement in distance management in his latest fight with Jason Knight and showed better entrances and exist off angles, but still was too deep to stuff Knight's takedowns. Dy isn't quite the pressure fighter or wrestler as Knight but Caceres would have to manage distance much better than he has in order to avoid counters, kicks, takedowns, or clinch engagements which Dy is pretty strong at.

Small consideration but Singapore is just a short flight from Dy's home in the Philippines and Caceres did not look good at all the last time he traveled across the pond to fight in Asia. Caceres is entertaining, and probably should be a slight favorite here but his funky style leaves a lot of openings. He's not a solid gameplanner or fight-winner as his record shows.

Conclusion: At +250 or so, Dy might be worth a shot.

I bet Dy at (+250). He has power and Caceres should NEVER be this big of a favorite against anyone.

[Shagdogy]

I put a bet on Inoue. De Tomas missed weight. In addition to Inoue's other advantages, the missed weight could be a side effect of incorrect training or other issues in his life that affected his training.

Still wish I could see more from Inoue. De Tomas is a pretty relentless wrestler which is a nice matchup vs a BJJ guy if he can get top control and hang out, avoiding subs. Every fight you can watch of De Tomas is him getting double legs, suplexes, trips, etc. he's all about top game. Can he get that position vs. Inoue? I don't know. I only saw one takedown attempt in the total 3 mins of fighting I could watch of Inoue and he used a strong wizard to defend and reverse to mount. Looked easy. No clue what the level of the opponent was. He finished him shortly after. Real hard to compare these two guys.

[Shagdogy]

I bet Dy at (+250). He has power and Caceres should NEVER be this big of a favorite against anyone.

I wasn't able to cap Dy as the favorite (I usually only like to play people I cap as the fav) but I did make a note that I just have a hunch that he can take this. He seems to have a little more of that "IT" factor. He is super confident in a kickboxing match, and he's very good at keeping the fight there. He's also young and looks to be still improving. The video from his most recent fight is the best he's looked, but it's only highlight video. I'd like to see the whole thing.