UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Correia (june 17, 2017)

[PaperTrail07]

Dy only finished in 1 of 13 fights....

[PaperTrail07]

Tuck -325....learned my lesson vS Emmet.....Gomi is 100% a live dog here...

[PaperTrail07]

Lotto Ticket:

$15.00	$952.40		Pending	4 Team Parlay
					Pending	6/17/17 9:00am UFC Fighting 1102 Marcin Tybura -235* vs Andrei Arlovski
					Pending	6/17/17 7:30am UFC Fighting 1401 Takanori Gomi +265* vs Jon Tuck
					Pending	6/17/17 7:00am UFC Fighting 1501 Cyril Asker +270* vs Walt Harris
					Pending	6/17/17 4:45am UFC Fighting 2001 Carls John de Tomas +235* vs Naoki Inoue

[PaperTrail07]

Also Playing....

1342 Dos Anjos points handicap

-3½ +125

[Shagdogy]

Any leans on Saffiedine/Dos Anjos? This is a pretty good fight. Dos Anjos has the cardio and his strikes are nice and crisp, but Saff likely won't stand right in front of him, and his counters were looking accurate vs. Kim. Dos Anjos's striking defense isn't incredible. I can't decide if Dos Anjos will be too fast and push too hard of a pace, or if Saff will be able to piece him up with stiff counters.

Edit: Also the leg kicks of Saff could play a big role. Dos Anjos leaves them out there to be kicked, and Saff could use that to slow him down a little bit and keep range.

[PaperTrail07]

I think RDA by TKO......but the line is about right IMO...

Any leans on Saffiedine/Dos Anjos? This is a pretty good fight. Dos Anjos has the cardio and his strikes are nice and crisp, but Saff likely won't stand right in front of him, and his counters were looking accurate vs. Kim. Dos Anjos's striking defense isn't incredible. I can't decide if Dos Anjos will be too fast and push too hard of a pace, or if Saff will be able to piece him up with stiff counters.

Edit: Also the leg kicks of Saff could play a big role. Dos Anjos leaves them out there to be kicked, and Saff could use that to slow him down a little bit and keep range.

[turbozed]

RDA looks shredded at 170 still. Pretty crazy




Lot of talk been going out at how bad his cuts to 155 were and how they really affected his performance. Apparently walks around at damn near 200 nowadays. Very curious to see what this version of RDA can do.

[turbozed]

I put a bet on Inoue. De Tomas missed weight. In addition to Inoue's other advantages, the missed weight could be a side effect of incorrect training or other issues in his life that affected his training.

CJ De Tomas 6 pounds over the weight limit. Seems like he just stopped cutting at some point. I picked up Inoue by submission for small. To my eye, it looked like De Tomas had good power doubles but didn't really look comfortable on the ground. Inoue looked superior in scrambling and ground transitions. Didn't go very big because there's not much video of Inoue out there and what's out is only him looking good (selection bias).

[JIBBBY]

Weigh ins... ^^^RDA does look fired up and in shape turbo...

[JIBBBY]

So fellas how do we play holly Holm in this one with prop play?

Holly has a couple head kick KO's in recent fights so does she land one here on shorter bulldog Bethe?http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Holly-Holm-75125

1041 Holm wins by TKO/KO

+100

Chances are Holly is gonna use her length and try kick boxing and win rounds on points.. I don't think she is gonna trade in the pocket..

1047 Holm wins by 5 rd unanimous decision

+220

1011 Holm wins by 5 round decision

+174

Beth has gone the distance in her last 3 fights, she also gets most of her wins by decision.. She did get dropped by Rhonda Rousey, and in her last fight won a decision against Jessica Eye.. Hmmm? http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Bethe-Correia-103069

This prop is not likely but ya never know.. Bethe isn't a ground fighter and this one should stay standing.

1007 Correia wins by 5 round decision

+595

Straight odds are absurd.. Can't touch this below, not even in a parlay

UFC Fight Night 111 - Bantamweight 5 rounds - Singapore Indoor Stadium - Kallang, Singapore - UFC Fight Pass
Sat 6/17		1001 Bethe Correia		+425	o4½ -105
9:30AM		1002 Holly Holm		-550	u4½ -115

UFC Fight Pass Main Card



Holly
Holm
"The Preacher's Daughter"
vs
Bethe
Correia
"Pitbull"

UNITED STATES
Country
BRAZIL

10-3-0
Record
10-2-1

70%
KO/TKO
20%

0%
SUB
0%

30%
DEC
80%

68 in
Height
65 in

135 lbs
Weight
135 lbs

69 in
Reach
64 in

38 in
Leg Reach
36 in

[JIBBBY]

Lotto Ticket:

$15.00	$952.40		Pending	4 Team Parlay
					Pending	6/17/17 9:00am UFC Fighting 1102 Marcin Tybura -235* vs Andrei Arlovski
					Pending	6/17/17 7:30am UFC Fighting 1401 Takanori Gomi +265* vs Jon Tuck
					Pending	6/17/17 7:00am UFC Fighting 1501 Cyril Asker +270* vs Walt Harris
					Pending	6/17/17 4:45am UFC Fighting 2001 Carls John de Tomas +235* vs Naoki Inoue

Good luck with Gomi Paper.. Dude is washed up..

[Pinoy-T-X]

Parlay pick 2u to win 10u

Holm
RDA
Walt Harris
Scoggins
Jingliang Li
Andre Ward

BOL guys.

[PaperTrail07]

100% agree....if he has a win left in him...its VS tuck LOL...

Good luck with Gomi Paper.. Dude is washed up..

[Shagdogy]

RDA being fired up doesn't mean much other than he's gonna bring the fight. Problem is, that plays into Saff's strength of counters and leg kicks. I don't think RDA will take Saff down so either he pushes the pace until Saff slows down, or Saff lands enough in the meantime. Close fight. I'm on Saff super small.

[PaperTrail07]

Just not too much value with all these -3-400's.....Liking the RDA +125 -3.5 even more now...

[turbozed]

Good luck with Gomi Paper.. Dude is washed up..

Most likely, but he actually didn't look too bad in his exhibition kickboxing match with Masato 6 months ago. He's got a shot in the opening moments of the fight. If there was a time to go out with a win, Tuck will be his best shot at it. I picked up Gomi by KO at around 5-1 a while back. Probably a -ev nostalgia play for me.

[JIBBBY]

RDA being fired up doesn't mean much other than he's gonna bring the fight. Problem is, that plays into Saff's strength of counters and leg kicks. I don't think RDA will take Saff down so either he pushes the pace until Saff slows down, or Saff lands enough in the meantime. Close fight. I'm on Saff super small.

RDA is on a 2 fight losing streak.. I'm a little concerned myself on playing RDA.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Rafael-dos-Anjos-11675

Saff not much better though.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Tarec-Saffiedine-21912

I still like RDA's chances in this one..

[PaperTrail07]

6/17/2017 8:00 AM MMA Props Fighting 1342 Dos Anjos points handicap* -3½ +155 vs Saffiedine points handicap
any victory inside distance is a winner for selected fighter, see sportsbook rules for grading details

6/17/2017 7:30 AM MMA Props Fighting 1441 Gomi points handicap* +3½ +180 vs Tuck points handicap
any victory inside distance is a winner for selected fighter, see sportsbook rules for grading details

[JIBBBY]

100% agree....if he has a win left in him...its VS tuck LOL...

I guess.. I'm going with Tuck myself and probably ITD and by KO..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Jon-Tuck-45108

Gomi last 3 fights all loses by KO..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Takanori-Gomi-425


I think Gomi is washed up.. Even Tuck whom is an average fighter should take him..

[PaperTrail07]

GL jiobbers.....just seems like everytime I rely on Tuck he falls short...

I guess.. I'm going with Tuck myself and probably ITD and by KO..

[JIBBBY]

GL jiobbers.....just seems like everytime I rely on Tuck he falls short...

I reads ya.. Every time I fade Gomi lately and by KO I seem to win . Sticking with my guns...

1433 Tuck wins by TKO/KO

+220

[PaperTrail07]

$5.00	$1,537.15		Pending	3 Team Parlay
					Pending	6/17/17 8:30am MMA Props Fighting 1205 Kim wins inside distance +650* vs Not Kim inside distance
					Pending	6/17/17 8:00am MMA Props Fighting 1305 Saffiedine wins inside distance +590* vs Not Saffiedine inside distance
					Pending	6/17/17 7:00am MMA Props Fighting 1505 Asker wins inside distance +496* vs Not Asker inside distance

[PaperTrail07]

LOttooooo TIME....LOL... hoping to catch a few hundo and a nice hedge LOL

[JIBBBY]

Gomi backers the KO prop is juicy though.. I may still hedge with this just for insurance no profit.. We'll see?

1429 Gomi wins by TKO/KO

+429

[Shagdogy]

The over unders are juiced a little but there's a few set at 1.5 that I think should be 2.5.

I'm on the over 1.5 in Doan/Kwak and Scoggins/Sasaki myself. Just hope the card doesn't hit that momentum where all the fights start ending quick.

[PaperTrail07]

good EYE

The over unders are juiced a little but there's a few set at 1.5 that I think should be 2.5.

I'm on the over 1.5 in Doan/Kwak and Scoggins/Sasaki myself. Just hope the card doesn't hit that momentum where all the fights start ending quick.

[JIBBBY]

^ I also like the unders in the first 5 fights.. Fight won't go the distance props I like...

Most fights should go under.. Only the Bruce leroy, RDA, Covington and Holm fights probably go over.. All other we should see a finish..

[Shagdogy]

^ I also like the unders in the first 5 fights.. Fight won't go the distance props I like...

Most fights should go under.. Only the Bruce leroy, RDA, Covington and Holm fights probably go over.. All other we should see a finish..

I took the overs there Jibbs. You think Doane/Kwak and Scoggins/Sasaki see quick finishes?

[Hugo de Naranja]

Dy only finished in 1 of 13 fights....

Do you mean he was finished or he was the finisher in 1 of 13? Because he has 4 finishes on his record.

[PaperTrail07]

Saying he has only been KO or Submitted 1 time....rest of losses by DEC

Do you mean he was finished or he was the finisher in 1 of 13? Because he has 4 finishes on his record.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Saying he has only been KO or Submitted 1 time....rest of losses by DEC

Got it

[unitedlad]

All Americans staying up to watching tonight/tomorrow morning's event, welcome to our world. I usually don't get to bed before 6am for most events. Enjoy

[Shagdogy]

All Americans staying up to watching tonight/tomorrow morning's event, welcome to our world. I usually don't get to bed before 6am for most events. Enjoy

I'm on the east coast... looks like prelims start 4:45am?

[JIBBBY]

I took the overs there Jibbs. You think Doane/Kwak and Scoggins/Sasaki see quick finishes?

- I do think Doane either gets the KO/SUB or Kwak gets the KO.. Doane has been stopped in 2 of his last 4 fights, he also has finishes in 11 of his 14 wins.. Kwak has 6 ko's in his 9 wins..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Kwan-Ho-Kwak-156471

I took fight won't go 3 round distance myself at plus odds.. Doane straight for small also

- Also don't think the Scoggins fight lasts either.. I got Scoggins by KO, hedged with Sasaki by sub. Both fighters very capable of finishing in this fight IMO...http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Yuta-Sasaki-63070


SO YES I THINK BOTH THESE FIGHTS PROBABLY DO NOT GO THE DISTANCE.. Both do not go the distance props are at +odds so I took them both..

[Shagdogy]

Haven't seen much talk here of Stun Gun being a live dog. I know Colby Covington is supposed to be the next coming, but has anyone ever seen Stun Gun controlled on the mat, on his back? This fight has decision written all over it and in 27 pro fights he has literally never lost a decision... and this is basically a home fight (a chance the judges favor the Asian fighters?). If I remember correctly, Barbarena had some success on the feet when he was briefly able to keep it there. I need to go back and watch that. Also, Kim has clearly fought the much better competition. This is basically Covington's first fight against top level talent. He has wins over 2, maybe 3, guys who were making their UFC debuts. Long story short - Kim isn't getting enough respect. It may be Covington's time but he hasn't proven anything yet other than he can wrestle. Kim could give him some trouble.