UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Correia (june 17, 2017)

[Shagdogy]

- I do think Doane either gets the KO/SUB or Kwak gets the KO.. Doane has been stopped in 2 of his last 4 fights, he also has finishes in 11 of his 14 wins.. Kwak has 6 ko's in his 9 wins..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Kwan-Ho-Kwak-156471

I took fight won't go 3 round distance myself at plus odds.. Doane straight for small also

Also don't think the Scoggins fight lasts either.. I got Scoggins by KO, hedged with Sasaki by sub. Both fighters very capable of finishing in this fight IMO...http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Yuta-Sasaki-63070


SO YES I THINK BOTH THESE FIGHT DO NOT GO THE DISTANCE..

All of Kwak's KO's are against regional talent. Doane never been KO'd and has been in there with some tough guys. Scoggins is similar, racking up KO's vs. non UFC fighters mostly, and Sasaki just went the distance with Wilson Reis. I was actually really impressed with Sasaki's hands in that fight. He switched to primarily orthodox stance and his right hand was twice as good as it ever was before. Sasaki is SUPER aggressive though so anything can happen.

Good luck to you my friend. Let's hope for some finishes in the 2nd half of the fights! Room for both of us to win.

[rsynweap84]

358784961 - 1

Jun 16, 2017 06:40 PM

Parlay

$30.00

$725.18

Martial Arts - 24337 Russell Doane +100 for Game Martial Arts - 24309 Dong Hyun Kim +255 for Game Martial Arts - 24305 Andrei Arlovski +200 for Game Martial Arts - 24302 Holly Holm -550 for Game

We shall see...

[hwgfb]

how many fights go the distance? 8 or less? like betting the distance bets. Any infor good luck to all

[JIBBBY]

Haven't seen much talk here of Stun Gun being a live dog. I know Colby Covington is supposed to be the next coming, but has anyone ever seen Stun Gun controlled on the mat, on his back? This fight has decision written all over it and in 27 pro fights he has literally never lost a decision... and this is basically a home fight (a chance the judges favor the Asian fighters?). If I remember correctly, Barbarena had some success on the feet when he was briefly able to keep it there. I need to go back and watch that. Also, Kim has clearly fought the much better competition. This is basically Covington's first fight against top level talent. He has wins over 2, maybe 3, guys who were making their UFC debuts. Long story short - Kim isn't getting enough respect. It may be Covington's time but he hasn't proven anything yet other than he can wrestle. Kim could give him some trouble.

Double post..

[JIBBBY]

Haven't seen much talk here of Stun Gun being a live dog. I know Colby Covington is supposed to be the next coming, but has anyone ever seen Stun Gun controlled on the mat, on his back? This fight has decision written all over it and in 27 pro fights he has literally never lost a decision... and this is basically a home fight (a chance the judges favor the Asian fighters?). If I remember correctly, Barbarena had some success on the feet when he was briefly able to keep it there. I need to go back and watch that. Also, Kim has clearly fought the much better competition. This is basically Covington's first fight against top level talent. He has wins over 2, maybe 3, guys who were making their UFC debuts. Long story short - Kim isn't getting enough respect. It may be Covington's time but he hasn't proven anything yet other than he can wrestle. Kim could give him some trouble.

Covington will have a huge wrestling advantage, could grind out a win on top.. There is good value with the Stun Gun KO prop though..

I got it pegged Covington by Dec, hedged Stun Gun by KO... Profit both ways..

UFC Fight Pass Main Card



Dong Hyun
Kim
"The Stun Gun"
vs
Colby
Covington
"Chaos"

SOUTH KOREA
Country
UNITED STATES

22-3-1, 1NC
Record
11-1-0

41%
KO/TKO
27%

9%
SUB
36%

50%
DEC
36%

74 in
Height
71 in

170 lbs
Weight
170 lbs

76 in
Reach
72 in

42 in
Leg Reach
41 in

Significant Strikes

[Shagdogy]

Doane/Kwak o1.5, -222, 2u
Scoggins/Sasaki o1.5, -215, 2u
Doane -105, 1.5u
Jingliang TKO/KO -110, 1.5u
Saffiedine +220, .66u
Dy +240, .66u
Kim +248, .66u
Asker +255, .66u

Throwing lots of dog plays out there... if I can go 2-2 on those, that's great. Even if I go 1-3 it's only a very small loss. Risk/reward worth it there for me. Just can't lose em all. I probably would have played a few of these differently with some hedge plays but my book apparently didn't find this card to be interesting enough to have the full range of props. Oh well. Good luck everyone!

[JIBBBY]

Crazy hours out here on the West Coast for this event..

Will be posting to myself half asleep tonight. .. We will see who the die hard MMA betting people posting are tonight!!

Locked and loaded.. Will post pending as I go tonight or should I say early morning hours for me....

Good luck fellas!!! Just win baby!!!

[turbozed]

I'm on a lot of dogs and prop plays here.

Doane decision +389 0.5u
Pudilova decision +180 0.5u
Gomi TKO +450 0.25u
Inoue submission +180 0.5u (tiny hedge De Tomas decision +430)
Inoue/De Tomas u2.5 -105 0.75u
Jingliang ITD -120 0.5u (tiny hedge Camacho Rd1 +950)
Jingliang/Camacho u1.5 +147 0.75u (may arb out of this one)
Dy ML +247 1.5u
Doane ML +130 0.75u
Correira ML +414 0.25u

GL to all

[GoBlue77]

RDA seems to be a trap. Everyone and their mom is on him and his price continues to drop. Also he is TINY compared to Saffiedine. RDA will do good in the division but I think he stumbles in his debut. Decision loss

[turbozed]

RDA seems to be a trap. Everyone and their mom is on him and his price continues to drop. Also he is TINY compared to Saffiedine. RDA will do good in the division but I think he stumbles in his debut. Decision loss

I think you're on to something. Saffiedine neutralized a good pressure wrestler in Rick Story. Tarec doesn't get much credit since he's an overly patient, overthinking counter fighter, but he's a pretty tough test for RDA. We'll probably know within a few minutes of the fight how the rest of the fight will play out. May be a good live bet opportunity.

[mdunlap3]

Anyone staying up to watch/cap this one?

[firekillex]

rda looked huge at weigh ins
easy w

[Hugo de Naranja]

358784961 - 1

Jun 16, 2017 06:40 PM

Parlay

$30.00

$725.18

Martial Arts - 24337 Russell Doane +100 for Game Martial Arts - 24309 Dong Hyun Kim +255 for Game Martial Arts - 24305 Andrei Arlovski +200 for Game Martial Arts - 24302 Holly Holm -550 for Game

We shall see...

Why put Holm in there? I mean she should win but adds no value and line is off

[Hugo de Naranja]

Won't be able to watch this one live unfortunately. Best of luck to everyone.

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC Fight Night 111: Holm vs. Correia Picks:
Ji Yeon Kim Split Decision (29-28 x2, 28-29)
Naoki Inoue Round 1 Submission (Armbar)
Kwan Ho Kwak Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)
Li Jingliang Round 1 KO (Punches)
Justin Scoggins Unanimous Decision (30-27 x2, 30-26)
Rolando Dy Round 2 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Walt Harris Round 1 KO (Punches)
Jon Tuck Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Rafael Dos Anjos Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Colby Covington Round 3 Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke)
Marcin Tybura Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Holly Holm Round 3 TKO (Head Kick and Punches)

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC Fight Night 111: Holm vs. Correia

Fight Pass Prelims:

Fight #1: Pudilova vs. Kim (DEBUT)
Kim (+125) 1u
Kim Decision (+260) .25u

Fight #2: Inoue (DEBUT) vs. De Tomas (DEBUT)
Inoue Submission (+160) 1u

Fight #3: Kwak vs. Doane
Kwak Submission (+1020) .25u

Fight #4: Jingliang vs. Camacho (DEBUT)
Jingliang KO/TKO (+122) 3u

Hedge:
Camacho KO/TKO(+560) .5u

Fight #5: Scoggins vs. Sasaki
Scoggins+Sasaki Goes Distance (+115) 1u
Scoggins Decision (+160) 1u

Hedge(s):
Sasaki ITD (+530) .25u
Sasaki Submission (+860) .5u

Fight #6: Dy (DEBUT) vs. Caceres
Dy (+250) 1u
Dy KO/TKO (+705) .25u
Dy Submission (+1265) .25u

Fight #7: Harris vs. Asker
Asker (+220) 1u

Fight #8: Tuck vs. Gomi
Tuck+Gomi Under 1.5 (-105) 1.05u to win 1u
Tuck KO/TKO (+210) 1u
Tuck Decision (+825) .25u

Hedge:
Gomi Decision (+950) .5u

Main Card:

Fight #9: Dos Anjos vs. Saffiedine
Dos Anjos -3.5 (+130) 1u
Dos Anjos+Saffiedine Under 2.5 (+170) 1u
Dos Anjos ITD (+280) .5u
Dos Anjos KO/TKO (+450) .25u

Hedge:
Saffiedine Decision (+337) 1u

Fight #10: Covington vs. Kim
Covington -3.5 (+100) 2u
Covington+Kim Under 2.5 (+190) .5u
Covington ITD (+256) .5u
Covington Submission (+500) .25u
Covington Round 3 (+1100) .25u

Hedge(s):
Kim ITD (+513) .5u
Kim KO/TKO (+1040) .25u

Fight #11: Tybura vs. Arlovski
Tybura ITD (-121) 1.21u to win 1u
Tybura Submission (+590) .25u

Hedge:
Arlovski KO/TKO (+461) .5u

Fight #12: Holm vs. Correia
Correia (+250) 2u
Correia Decision (+800) .25u
Correa Split/Majority Decision (+1720) .25u

Hedge(s):
Holm KO/TKO (+160) 1u
Holm Decision (+170) .5u

Straight Parlays:
Kwak+Doane O1.5/Scoggins+Sasaki O1.5 (+101) 1u
Inoue/Tuck -3.5 (+106) 1u
Tuck/Tybura -3.5 (+110) 2u
Covington/Tybura (+111) 2u
Dos Anjos/Covington (+129) 2u
Kwak/Dos Anjos (+143) 2u
Tuck+Gomi Under 1.5/Tybura (+170) 1u

Prop Parlays:
Jingliang+Camacho WGD/Scoggins -2.5/Tuck (+164) 1u
Pudilova+Kim GD/Inoue Submission/Kwak (+649) .25u
Harris ITD/Tuck Round 1/Dos Anjos Decision (+654) .25u
Jingliang ITD/Scoggins+Sasaki Starts Round 3/Dy (+871) .25u
Covington Decision/Tybura -3.5/Correia (+1470) .25u

Full Card Props:
Over 6.5 Fights Go Distance (+231) 1.25u
Over 7.5 Fights Go Distance (+595) .5u
Caceres+Dy FOTN (+800) .25u
Over 8.5 Fights Go Distance (+1810) .25u

Multi-Event Parlays:
Scoggins -2.5/Open (+xxx) 4u

[Hugo de Naranja]

I'm mostly liking the favorites on this card and parlaying them up. See most other posters are on the dogs but I've got to stick with my reads from tape study and roll with the punches.

[UncleChael]

Don't over think the main event boys, Ronda Rousey knocked out Correia. YW.

[spurginobili]

Slim pickens for betting this time of year, now that baskets is over & don't bet bases much, looking forward to this card.

Just started studying for this a couple hours ago.

Watched one fight of each girl in the opener...Pudilova looked pretty average & lost. This Yeon Kim girl is a fukking zombie psychopath, lol. She won the fight by sub.

Gonna have to go with Kim. GL

[JIBBBY]

I'm awake and in... Sleep is over rated...

First fight is sketchy I think. I played it like this but not confident.. Small stuff in this first chick fight..

$68.00

$105.40

Pending

6/17/17 4:30am MMA Props Fighting 2107 Pudilova wins by 3 round decision +155* vs Not Pudilova by 3 round decision

Ji Yeon
Kim
"Firefist"
vs
Lucie
Pudilova
"Bullet"

Country
CZECH REPUBLIC

6-0-2
Record
6-2-0

17%
KO/TKO
33%

50%
SUB
33%

33%
DEC
33%

66 in
Height
68 in

135 lbs
Weight
135 lbs

72 in
Reach
67 in

37 in
Leg Reach
42 in

[JIBBBY]

Fight 2 - Going against the Asian fade in this fight.. Took a closer look and had play this...

$50.00

$85.00

Pending

6/17/17 4:45am MMA Props Fighting 2031 Inoue wins by submission +170* vs Any other result

fight 3 -

$100.00

$105.00

Pending

6/17/17 5:00am MMA Props Fighting 1904 Fight won’t go 3 round distance +105* vs Doane / Kwak goes 3 round distance

Here we go!!!

[turbozed]

I'm with you in fights 1 and 2 Jibby. Have over in Doane Kwak tho

[turbozed]

Pudilova walking out like she already ran a marathon. What's wrong with her.

[spurginobili]

How do you score that?

Freakin slugfest

[JIBBBY]

Right on Turbo.. Hoping to get off to good start here..

Spurg is up and in I see...

[spurginobili]

Good luck Jibby

Scored rd 2 narrowly for Pudilova

[spurginobili]

Pudilova's got this...damn you Kim

[turbozed]

A little closer than I wanted it, but good start to begin the night

Now for an Inoue submission plz

[JIBBBY]

That works ..

[slikec]

Hugo i am surprised you liked Correia at +250 for 2u and surprised you didnt add at least unit when you get almost double the price.

[spurginobili]

[QUOTE=JIBBBY;27033610]Fight 2 - Going against the Asian fade in this fight.. Took a closer look and had play this...

$50.00

$85.00

Pending

6/17/17 4:45am MMA Props Fighting 2031 Inoue wins by submission +170* vs Any other result

Same here

[Ty$]

Morning boys!!! Main play so far is Scoggins by TKO... GL

[turbozed]

Very close to a sub in round 1. HOpe he gets it in round 2

[spurginobili]

Thought he had the choke

[mdunlap3]

Great fight here so far.