UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Browne (February 19, 2017)

[JIBBBY]

Jibby i was saying sunday funday all week lol....

Right on Paper.. I prefer the cards be held on Saturday myself... I got stuff to do Monday and don't like to drink up on Sunday nights ...

[JIBBBY]

I like Ferreira. He went through a long period of being injured, now he says he has no pain after a surgery so he can take his game to the next level. Theodoro ran from Alvey the whole fight and got pot shots, don't think he can do that vs Ferreira.

I also like Meerschaert. Here are some interviews with him for some inside info:

http://www.mmaoddsbreaker.com/news/ufc-halifax-gerald-meerschaert-this-is-going-to-be-my-first-ko-win-in-the-ufc/

https://www.spreaker.com/user/fightl...ld-meerschaert

I agree.. Ferreira should win this, maybe by decision too.. Elias if a safe fighter and probably won't get finished if I had to guess..

[Hugo de Naranja]

Theodorou +105 vs Ferreira -- I like Theodorou to win this scrap in his hometown. I think he can keep this one on the feet and win with his volume and cardio advantage. I didn't expect to get him at a dog price.

Ferreria would rather keep it on the feet as well....Ferreria needs distance....I think the pressure from Theo will be too much

Ferreira is such bad matchup for Theodorou. As long as he doesn't get knocked out early, Ferreira is going to take him down and beat him up. 30-27 for the Brazilian

[Hugo de Naranja]

Odds on Hendricks to miss weight at Middleweight?

[JIBBBY]

Odds on Hendricks to miss weight at Middleweight?

50/50 for sure ...

[UncleChael]

Ferreira is such bad matchup for Theodorou. As long as he doesn't get knocked out early, Ferreira is going to take him down and beat him up. 30-27 for the Brazilian

No way man.

[firekillex]

Ferreira is such bad matchup for Theodorou. As long as he doesn't get knocked out early, Ferreira is going to take him down and beat him up. 30-27 for the Brazilian

Wouldn't be surprised to see it, Ferreira only loses by Ko and Elias doesn't the KO power

elias has been super inactive as well

[Sanity Check]

Theodorou spent the last year at tristar, one of the best gyms to train wrestling/grappling.

I don't know if Ferreira will want to mess with Theodorou on the ground.

It might be a standup fight.

[Shagdogy]

The favorites are likely to cash but the prices seem inflated this card IMO....maybe a slight correction after last card?

I was thinking the same thing... I don't have any of the dogs favored, but I have many of them closer than where the lines currently sit.

Janes is a horribly unathletic looking fighter but he has real good size, nonstop pressure, and a solid chin (it has to be cause he gets hit all the time). While Meerschaert holds a clear advantage on the ground, he may struggle to get it there and keep it there often enough to lose an ugly decision. That line seems too big.

There's not a lot of tape to be seen on Ricci, but there doesn't seem to be too much to separate him from Felder other than a little bit slighter build and less UFC experience. The line is quite wide considering they're both durable and they both are gonna bang.

Might need to play some over/unders on this card. I like Marshman/Santos o1.5 at +185. Both guys have heavy hands, but Santos holds a clear advantage from the outside. Why risk standing in the pocket with Marshman when he has the reach advantage, better kicks, and can play patient from the outside? I think his game plan could lead to an over. I also like o1.5 in Zahabi/Vieira at -190. Zahabi has never been out of the first round and that's probably the only reason this isn't set at 2.5. Even with the juice, this seems like a play at 1.5. Finally, Felder/Ricci is worth a shot at more than 2-1 to go u2.5. Neither guy ever finished (other than a cut for Felder), but getting better than 2-1 that someone gets taken out in what should be an aggressive striking battle also seems like value.

[JIBBBY]

Theodorou spent the last year at tristar, one of the best gyms to train wrestling/grappling.

I don't know if Ferreira will want to mess with Theodorou on the ground.

It might be a standup fight.

Good point.. Even standing I give Ferreira the advantage though.. I think he wins a close decision.. I won't bet it Unanimous..

[TPowell]

Keep in mind a close decision SHOULD go to Theo. He's the hometown guy here (Canadian). People think Theo is a low volume guy because of the Alvey fight but at his best, he's an attacking type of guy with his striking and takedowns. He has solid cardio and can drag guys into deeper waters and make them uncomfortable. I think Theo will be the quicker guy in there and should be able to bounce around and land some shots and get some confidence. Mutante has some pop in his punches but he isn't the greatest striker for sure. I think he has the edge on the ground with his BJJ but the wrestling and striking are both close IMO but Theo's work rate should be higher and get a decision win.

[TPowell]

Leaning towards a stab on Ricci by decision at a big price. Felder is so inactive and I think people are sleeping on Ricci because he got physically dominated by a true FW fighting at LW in his UFC debut. Ricci is a striker first for sure and I love getting the huge dog money on a striker like Felder that isn't a great finisher on the feet and doesn't throw much at all to win on the cards

[firekillex]

Theodorou spent the last year at tristar, one of the best gyms to train wrestling/grappling.

I don't know if Ferreira will want to mess with Theodorou on the ground.

It might be a standup fight.

Ferreria is much much better on the mat then theodorou, his jiu jitsu is on a different level

theodorou at tristar is a good thing but this style matchup is just bad for elias in the end of things, styles make fights

[Sanity Check]

Ferreria is much much better on the mat then theodorou, his jiu jitsu is on a different level

theodorou at tristar is a good thing but this style matchup is just bad for elias in the end of things, styles make fights

Ferreria defeated three fighters in the UFC who could have suspect wrestling and sub defense.

The reason Ferreria could be wrestling/grappling now, late in his career, could be due to his chin deteriorating and him not being able to take shots.

Theodorou is the best wrestler/grappler Ferreria has faced in the last x amount of years.

Theodorou could be a better wrestler/grappler than Ferreria is imo.

[DDT]

50/50 for sure ...

I'd take those odds all day

[Hugo de Naranja]

Leaning towards a stab on Ricci by decision at a big price. Felder is so inactive and I think people are sleeping on Ricci because he got physically dominated by a true FW fighting at LW in his UFC debut. Ricci is a striker first for sure and I love getting the huge dog money on a striker like Felder that isn't a great finisher on the feet and doesn't throw much at all to win on the cards

Felder does tend to fight down to the level of his opponents and be in close fights. I think Felder gets the job done but it could be a tight one.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I'd take those odds all day

Betpoints??

[Hugo de Naranja]

Ferreria defeated three fighters in the UFC who could have suspect wrestling and sub defense.

The reason Ferreria could be wrestling/grappling now, late in his career, could be due to his chin deteriorating and him not being able to take shots.

Theodorou is the best wrestler/grappler Ferreria has faced in the last x amount of years.

Theodorou could be a better wrestler/grappler than Ferreria is imo.

Theodorou's defensive wrestling is not that good. His offensive wrestling is mostly effective against guys with shitty TDD.

[Snowball]

I think if Lewis can make it out of the first 7 or so minutes, he will get the win. Watched about 10 of Browne's fights and the guy has really limited cardio. With that said he is a much more technical striker and is a very good finisher in the first round or so. Might be a good spot to Livebet Lewis

I agree, Lewis can smother Browne.
He has a gangly, wide presence that will confound Browne.

[firekillex]

Betpoints??

My 100 for your 50 Hendricks makes 186 weight limit ?

[PaperTrail07]

totally agree....making it more difficult this card....

I was thinking the same thing... I don't have any of the dogs favored, but I have many of them closer than where the lines currently sit.

Janes is a horribly unathletic looking fighter but he has real good size, nonstop pressure, and a solid chin (it has to be cause he gets hit all the time). While Meerschaert holds a clear advantage on the ground, he may struggle to get it there and keep it there often enough to lose an ugly decision. That line seems too big.

There's not a lot of tape to be seen on Ricci, but there doesn't seem to be too much to separate him from Felder other than a little bit slighter build and less UFC experience. The line is quite wide considering they're both durable and they both are gonna bang.

Might need to play some over/unders on this card. I like Marshman/Santos o1.5 at +185. Both guys have heavy hands, but Santos holds a clear advantage from the outside. Why risk standing in the pocket with Marshman when he has the reach advantage, better kicks, and can play patient from the outside? I think his game plan could lead to an over. I also like o1.5 in Zahabi/Vieira at -190. Zahabi has never been out of the first round and that's probably the only reason this isn't set at 2.5. Even with the juice, this seems like a play at 1.5. Finally, Felder/Ricci is worth a shot at more than 2-1 to go u2.5. Neither guy ever finished (other than a cut for Felder), but getting better than 2-1 that someone gets taken out in what should be an aggressive striking battle also seems like value.

[PaperTrail07]

Like the Gente BkofAma Fight...... Should he win -YES....but -400 my god...should be -300 max IMO... expect a dec win by him but Taleb is no easy out....

Esparaza -280.....Should Win it...but laying almost 3:1 seems off here...

Zahabi- -230..... new guy....DO think he wins but laying -2:1 on someone I don't know much about it tough....has be more of a fade of Vie and his t-rex ness....

[MMANick]

Janes is getting Subbed or KO'd. Meerschaert is a finisher.

[Hugo de Naranja]

My 100 for your 50 Hendricks makes 186 weight limit ?

Deal

[firekillex]

Deal

this will determine if i hate johnny hendricks forever or not

[TPowell]

Janes is getting Subbed or KO'd. Meerschaert is a finisher.

Janes is a legit BJJ black belt. I have a parlay with Meers but he's been subbed liked 6 sub times in his career. I think he should be able to pick him apart standing and be okay on the ground as long as he doesn't get too crazy but idk.

[TPowell]

Anybody feeling Taleb/Ponzo UNDER 1.5 (+175)? Both guys pack a lot of power on the feet and both are pretty bad defensively. I took a flier on Taleb ITD at +850 as well. I think Ponzo has a bad speed edge that probably wins him this fight but not hard to imagine a quick finish here unless Taleb is able to shoot takedowns successfully. I don't like the big number with Ponzo because he's pretty poor defensively and he's been fighting grinding wrestlers without much power. I know his chin is really solid but it COULD get cracked here IMO

[Hugo de Naranja]

Anybody feeling Taleb/Ponzo UNDER 1.5 (+175)? Both guys pack a lot of power on the feet and both are pretty bad defensively. I took a flier on Taleb ITD at +850 as well. I think Ponzo has a bad speed edge that probably wins him this fight but not hard to imagine a quick finish here unless Taleb is able to shoot takedowns successfully. I don't like the big number with Ponzo because he's pretty poor defensively and he's been fighting grinding wrestlers without much power. I know his chin is really solid but it COULD get cracked here IMO

Agreed. I actually have a full unit on Taleb KO/TKO (+1150).

[TPowell]

Agreed. I actually have a full unit on Taleb KO/TKO (+1150).

I liked that too. Hated giving up juice but Taleb by SUB would kill me LOL. Card is much pretty set right now but could be a big parlay weekend. Like Damon Jackson in LFA, Kongo and Thomson in Bellator, and I haven't even sat down and went through the Cage Warriors or Cage cards yet

[Snowball]

my straight up bets for tomorrow, current 5D odds:

Lewis (-115)
Theodorou (105)
Tucker (-165)
Taleb (325)
Mazany (450)
Marshman (160)
Vieira (190)

[Shagdogy]

Agreed. I actually have a full unit on Taleb KO/TKO (+1150).

Hm. I disagree. I disrespect the power of Taleb and think more of Ponzi's durability. I could be wrong.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I liked that too. Hated giving up juice but Taleb by SUB would kill me LOL. Card is much pretty set right now but could be a big parlay weekend. Like Damon Jackson in LFA, Kongo and Thomson in Bellator, and I haven't even sat down and went through the Cage Warriors or Cage cards yet

Could happen but Taleb has never subbed anyone and Ponzinibbio has never been subbed.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Hm. I disagree. I disrespect the power of Taleb and think more of Ponzi's durability. I could be wrong.

Play for value. Ponz is very hittable on the counter and Taleb is accurate. Happens more than 10% of the time imo

[MMANick]

I know Janes is a high level Blackbelt, but Meerschaert has sneaky subs. I see Meerschaert dropping Janes w/ strikes and either TKO'ing him or latching on a choke after Janes is hurt.

And Taleb isn't a power puncher, sure he knocked Silva out, but he's not necessarily a power puncher. Unless of course he's put it all together and now developed more power, which is possible because he's friggin massive.

[MMANick]

I liked that too. Hated giving up juice but Taleb by SUB would kill me LOL. Card is much pretty set right now but could be a big parlay weekend. Like Damon Jackson in LFA, Kongo and Thomson in Bellator, and I haven't even sat down and went through the Cage Warriors or Cage cards yet

Parlay the favorites on AXS tonight & profit? That's what I'm looking at. Bell isn't losing, Krantz should get the finish, and Damon should either grind out a decision or latch on a choke.

I'm currently looking at the Cage cards now.