UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Browne (February 19, 2017)

[TPowell]

Parlay the favorites on AXS tonight & profit? That's what I'm looking at. Bell isn't losing, Krantz should get the finish, and Damon should either grind out a decision or latch on a choke.

I'm currently looking at the Cage cards now.

Passing on Krantz. He's beaten bigger guys before but his opponent is dropping from MW. I'm new at anything outside of Bellator and UFC though. Where do you do your research mostly?

[TPowell]

I know Janes is a high level Blackbelt, but Meerschaert has sneaky subs. I see Meerschaert dropping Janes w/ strikes and either TKO'ing him or latching on a choke after Janes is hurt.

And Taleb isn't a power puncher, sure he knocked Silva out, but he's not necessarily a power puncher. Unless of course he's put it all together and now developed more power, which is possible because he's friggin massive.

I can def see Janes getting dropped and subbed but he'd have to be dropped. Can't see him getting subbed otherwise. Taleb could certainly be a power puncher and he's def accurate. Could stun him and follow up on it with some decent shots.

[MMANick]

Passing on Krantz. He's beaten bigger guys before but his opponent is dropping from MW. I'm new at anything outside of Bellator and UFC though. Where do you do your research mostly?

I watch basically every AXS fight card, UFC, Bellator, WSOF, Titan, and most of the cards on Fight Pass. I YouTube, use Fight Pass and go through my recordings on my DVR as well to watch past fights. It's sad that I know most of the fighters on any given card or have at least seen them fight... I'm nothing more than an MMA junkie lol

[TPowell]

I watch basically every AXS fight card, UFC, Bellator, WSOF, Titan, and most of the cards on Fight Pass. I YouTube, use Fight Pass and go through my recordings on my DVR as well to watch past fights. It's sad that I know most of the fighters on any given card or have at least seen them fight... I'm nothing more than an MMA junkie lol

Interesting, I like reading recaps myself and then doing my own viewing of fights before I lock plays in but not really an option on AXS and lower type fight cards. I keep a spreadsheet of UFC fighters with a lot of notes and grades broken down by division which helps me a ton there

[MMANick]

Interesting, I like reading recaps myself and then doing my own viewing of fights before I lock plays in but not really an option on AXS and lower type fight cards. I keep a spreadsheet of UFC fighters with a lot of notes and grades broken down by division which helps me a ton there

Well, of course I use sites like MMAob, BE and MMAmania, but that's mainly to see if they're seeing things the same way as myself.

[TPowell]

Liking Karl more and more versus Inman. Inman was a pro boxer (0-5) but he tends to be content counter striking most of the time. He's a BJJ black belt but his wrestling isn't up to snuff I don't think. Amoussou is a freight train that starts really fast with heavy kicks and punches in combos. He can struggle outside of the 1st round but he's tough to finish (only guy to finish him was the GOAT Askren) and Inman has been finished by strikes twice in past couple of years. Think Inman will struggle to keep Karl off him and Karl will probably land a big shot at some point

[Hugo de Naranja]

Liking Karl more and more versus Inman. Inman was a pro boxer (0-5) but he tends to be content counter striking most of the time. He's a BJJ black belt but his wrestling isn't up to snuff I don't think. Amoussou is a freight train that starts really fast with heavy kicks and punches in combos. He can struggle outside of the 1st round but he's tough to finish (only guy to finish him was the GOAT Askren) and Inman has been finished by strikes twice in past couple of years. Think Inman will struggle to keep Karl off him and Karl will probably land a big shot at some point

Amossou is a beast for sure

[Hugo de Naranja]

Feel like at least 2 fighters are going to miss weight for this event

[MMANick]

Liking Karl more and more versus Inman. Inman was a pro boxer (0-5) but he tends to be content counter striking most of the time. He's a BJJ black belt but his wrestling isn't up to snuff I don't think. Amoussou is a freight train that starts really fast with heavy kicks and punches in combos. He can struggle outside of the 1st round but he's tough to finish (only guy to finish him was the GOAT Askren) and Inman has been finished by strikes twice in past couple of years. Think Inman will struggle to keep Karl off him and Karl will probably land a big shot at some point

GOAT Askren lollll. I like Karl & Stapleton in a parlay.

[firekillex]

It's actually funny because askren looks like a hippy bum but he could easily be champion at 170 guy has the best wrestling at 170 on the planet hands down , he would probably beat wonderboy but Tyron would be his toughest opponent even he agreed on some podcast I was listening to a few weeks back. Hope he can make his way over and settle things with Dana, his style can be boring but I wanna see if he could get a title in the UFC

[TPowell]

Warren Key is HORRIBLE. Guy is nearing 40 and has been dominated a bunch lately. 1-4 in his last 5 fights with his only win at LW. Wheeler is coming off a crazy KO loss where he literally 10-8'ed the guy on the ground and then was finished at the bell by a crazy overhand right.

[TPowell]

wow, this Stapleton guy is cocky AF. Dropping his hands the whole fight. Should have lost to Lapilus. It was a clean knee IMO, shouldn't have been a DQ

[Hugo de Naranja]

I don't have much of a read on Hendricks/Lombard or Tucker/Sicilia. Does anybody else?

[MMANick]

I like Tucker a ton.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I like Tucker a ton.

Why's that?

[MMANick]

Why's that?

He's a very solid prospect from Canada. Very good grappling and very capable on the feet. He probably has the advantage in both categories versus Sicillia. Plus Sam is very chinny.

[Hugo de Naranja]

He's a very solid prospect from Canada. Very good grappling and very capable on the feet. He probably has the advantage in both categories versus Sicillia. Plus Sam is very chinny.

Do you have any tape that you could share the link to? I've had trouble finding much

[Shagdogy]

I like Tucker a ton.

Might be on to something. It's definitely hard to find full fights of his, but if you search around a lot you can see pieces of various fights and one thing stands out is that he is always dictating his fights. He finishes on the feet and on the ground. He's a southpaw with much more varied striking than Sicilia who is mostly just right hand. Fighting at home, you know he will be pumped. Big question marks here would be that I can't find any footage of his chin being test or of him being put on his back. Also, he hasn't fought a lot. Only one fight in 2016 and it only lasted 37 seconds. Not much time in the cage. Regardless, he definitely seems worth a stab at plus money.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Might be on to something. It's definitely hard to find full fights of his, but if you search around a lot you can see pieces of various fights and one thing stands out is that he is always dictating his fights. He finishes on the feet and on the ground. He's a southpaw with much more varied striking than Sicilia who is mostly just right hand. Fighting at home, you know he will be pumped. Big question marks here would be that I can't find any footage of his chin being test or of him being put on his back. Also, he hasn't fought a lot. Only one fight in 2016 and it only lasted 37 seconds. Not much time in the cage. Regardless, he definitely seems worth a stab at plus money.

But he's (-165). Tucker's also like 30 years old, not really a young prospect.

[Ty$]

Look at Tucker's last two opponents. He hasn't fought anyone near sicilia.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Look at Tucker's last two opponents. He hasn't fought anyone near sicilia.

Looks like a giant pass for me

[Ty$]

Looks like a giant pass for me

Only fighters I like onthis are Elias and Sicilia. Who's your lock Hugo? I think Hendricks can get the KO too.

[CaptChaos145]

I don't have much of a read on Hendricks/Lombard or Tucker/Sicilia. Does anybody else?

I think it's a good sign that you don't have a good read on Hendricks/Lombard. I'd be more concerned if you did. Both guys are shells of the former self. Both have big power but we haven't sen much of it from Hendricks lately. Lombard tends to gas more now. Remember this fight is at 185 too. If I HAD to bet I lean Lombard but I'm passing on it.

[TPowell]

At close to even, I may make a play on Lombard. I think he probably overwhelms Hendricks early. Can't see Hendricks taking him down until Lombard gases. At 185, he may be able to make it a little more than a round before he gases

[Hugo de Naranja]

Only fighters I like onthis are Elias and Sicilia. Who's your lock Hugo? I think Hendricks can get the KO too.

I like Ferreira and Taleb. Have Esparza in some parlays as well

[Shagdogy]

But he's (-165). Tucker's also like 30 years old, not really a young prospect.

I must've read that line backwards. -160 changes things!

[Shagdogy]

I like Ferreira and Taleb. Have Esparza in some parlays as well

How do you see the Ferreira fight going? I feel like the line is dead on.

[Hugo de Naranja]

How do you see the Ferreira fight going? I feel like the line is dead on.

Some clinch battles and range kicking early. Then Ferreira gets Theodorou down and controls position, landing occasional GnP. He might have one good solid submission attempt but Theodorou will tough it out. Ferreira wins a UD.

[Snowball]

Tucker is short, he doesn't really pass the eye test on the weigh-in
against Sicilia. I'm backing off that selection. Don't trust it.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Tucker is short, he doesn't really pass the eye test on the weigh-in
against Sicilia. I'm backing off that selection. Don't trust it.

Agreed. Best move is to pass and we'll learn something about both guys regardless of the result.

[Snowball]

Agreed. Best move is to pass and we'll learn something about both guys regardless of the result.

I'm still with a lot of dogs tomorrow. Mazany, Theo, Marshman, Vieira,
Taleb. Still trying to figure out why Vieira is such a dog.

Can someone explain to me why Vieira is such a dog ?
As if it would be odd that he sub Aiemann ?

[Rich Benjamins]

Only fighters I like onthis are Elias and Sicilia. Who's your lock Hugo? I think Hendricks can get the KO too.

I really don't know about Hendricks/Lombard, I go back and forth on that one. I got Ferreira over Elias because it seems to me Elias has his foot halfway out the door. Whereas Ferreira has his eyes on becoming champion. Ferreira has his whole gym based around him, whereas Elias keeps jumping around to different gyms and has all this other stuff going on. Also, Ferreira says he's injury free now, he used to always be fighting injured. that said, if Elias proves to be the quicker, more athletic fighter, that can outpoint Ferreira, then attitude might not matter. So that's the risk I'm taking.

[JIBBBY]

I think if Lewis can make it out of the first 7 or so minutes, he will get the win. Watched about 10 of Browne's fights and the guy has really limited cardio. With that said he is a much more technical striker and is a very good finisher in the first round or so. Might be a good spot to Livebet Lewis

Hmmmm? Reading over all the posts now before I get some final bets in..

This is interesting as HAPA does have many 1st round KO finishes but most of those came years ago.. Still 14 of his 18 wins have been by KO... Lately TB's either been getting KO'd himself or going deep in fights and then winning them by KO or decision.. To Hapa's credit he's been fighting some the best in the division win or lose lately though....http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Travis-Browne-16785

Beast really has been fighting border line bums.. Look at who he's fought.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Derrick-Lewis-59284

Initial thoughts were to take the Beast but now after fully capping this fight I am second guessing it now.. I'm gonna sleep on it..

Brown by KO if he is to win probably is the prop to play..

[Ty$]

I think it's a good sign that you don't have a good read on Hendricks/Lombard. I'd be more concerned if you did. Both guys are shells of the former self. Both have big power but we haven't sen much of it from Hendricks lately. Lombard tends to gas more now. Remember this fight is at 185 too. If I HAD to bet I lean Lombard but I'm passing on it.

I think Lombard has the weaker chin. And the wrestling/Judo almost cancels itself out. Hendricks jus got robbed against a guy that dominated Lombard. I know mma math ain't perfect but I like Jony.

[Bad Tattoo]

I like Hendricks (very small wager). He looks out of shape though.