Have to make sure the places are using the new rules. If so, sprinkling a little on draws isn't too bad of a play IMO.
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What are people's thoughts on the Felder fight?Comment -
Meerschaert -300 vs Janes -- I think the points prop will be good here or just putting Meerschaert in a parlay. He is a finisher and is going to put a whooping on Janes. I believe he will keep this on the feet and batter Janes.
Santos -185 vs Marshman -- Both guys hit very hard so I definitely don't see a decision here. I think Santos finishes this one early. Marshman has shown the ability to weather an early storm, but Santos is going to be able to tee off here without worrying about getting taken down.
Zahabi -225 vs Vieira -- I'd say Zahabi is a good parlay piece here. He should have a striking advantage in this one and should have Vieira stranded on the feet. He'll make Firas happy in this one.
Esparza vs Markos O2.5 -310 -- This fight is going to a decision. I think Carla will win the decision. Markos might keep it competitive early, but Carla will take over with her wrestling & clearly win Rounds 2 & 3 after Markos starts to fade, which is a common occurance.
Ponzinibbio -390 vs Taleb -- Ponzinibbio is going to be the smaller fighter here, but he has improved his game significantly. He will throw out more volume and hit Taleb with the biggest shots of the fight. Ponzinibbio is a fun striker to watch, he'll cruise here and will be worthy of a points prop or parlay.
Felder -375 vs Ricci -- I think Felder wins this scrap. He should have an advantage on the feet and also in the wrestling, if he chooses to use it. This should be a fun scrap.
McMann -500 vs Mazany -- McMann cruises to an easy win without getting in any trouble here.
Tucker -155 vs Sicillia -- I like the newcomer here. Tucker is a solid, solid prospect. I think he'll be better everywhere than Sicillia and we've seen Sam's chin fail him quite a bit.
Theodorou +105 vs Ferreira -- I like Theodorou to win this scrap in his hometown. I think he can keep this one on the feet and win with his volume and cardio advantage. I didn't expect to get him at a dog price.
Hendricks +130 vs Lombard -- If you like Lombard, you gave to like the Under, if you like Hendricks, you have to like the over. I'm taking a shot on Hendricks here at his dog price. Lombard has a horrible gas tank and Johnny has a decent chin and good wrestling. I think he can wear Lombard down and grind him out. I do not like Johnny either, that's just what I see happening.
Lewis -115 vs Browne -- Give me The Black Beast here. He'll have a strength advantage & I even think he'll have the cardio edge. Also, Travis is still with Edmond, at least part time... That's as good of a reason as any to continue fading Hapa.Comment -
The favorites are likely to cash but the prices seem inflated this card IMO....maybe a slight correction after last card?Comment -
Theodorou +105 vs Ferreira -- I like Theodorou to win this scrap in his hometown. I think he can keep this one on the feet and win with his volume and cardio advantage. I didn't expect to get him at a dog price.
Ferreria would rather keep it on the feet as well....Ferreria needs distance....I think the pressure from Theo will be too muchComment -
Ferreria has looked sharp though.....
tough call...
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MMA MANIA prelim previews -
185 lbs.: Gerald Meerschaert vs. Ryan Janes
Gerald Meerschaert (25-8) came back from a 1-3 slump to win 10 of his next 11 fights, ultimately submitting Chase Waldon for the vacant RFA title. This earned him a call up to UFC, where he dispatched Joe Gigliotti with a bonus-winning anaconda choke in his debut.
Eighteen of his wins have come by submission.
Though he had to deal with several false starts, Ryan Janes (9-1) finally got to step into the Octagon in Dec. 2016 after more than a 16-month layoff. In a mostly stand up affair, he out-struck Keith Berish to take home just his second decision win.
He will have a two-inch height advantage, although he will give up an inch of reach.
This matchmaking honestly confuses me. Meerschaert has made the jump from journeyman to legitimate threat, fighting a wide range of opponents, while Janes' best accomplishment is beating Keith Berish. Literally the only reason this might not be a complete blowout is that Meerschaert has been submitted seven times and Janes is no slouch on the mat.
Still, "The Machine's" experience, craft and durability are just too much. He dominates everywhere before locking up a choke in transition.
Prediction: Meerschaert via first-round submission
170 lbs.: Nordine Taleb vs. Santiago Ponzinibbio
Though Nordine Taleb (12-3) came up short in both of his TUF bids, he has carved out a place for himself in the organization proper with a 4-1 record. His most recent fight saw him enact righteous vengeance with a one-punch knockout of Erick Silva after getting cheap-shotted.
This will be his first fight in 11 months because of injury.
Argentina's Santiago Ponzinibbio (23-3) had a rough start to his UFC career, missing out on a shot at TUF: "Brazil" 2 gold because of injury and suffering a decision loss to Ryan LaFlare in his promotional debut. He has since established himself as a contender, winning five of his last six bouts with three brutal knockouts.
"Gente BkofAma" has just one decision win in the last six years.
Ponzinibbio is currently more than a 3:1 favorite and I'm inclined to call that fair. He's got a decided speed and power advantage over Taleb, who still can't quite parlay his huge frame into a complete striking game. Further, "Gente BkofAma's" takedown defense has improved markedly, taking away a weapon that Taleb has relied quite a bit on in UFC.
Even though he's already 30 years old, I have high hopes for Ponzinibbio's future, while Taleb seems to have plateaued. Expect the Argentinian's blistering combination punching to score a telling blow early.
Prediction: Ponzinibbio via first-round knockout
115 lbs.: Carla Esparza vs. Randa Markos
As the No. 1 seed on TUF 20, Carla Esparza (11-3) ran through the competition before choking out Rose Namajunas at the Finale to claim the inaugural women's Strawweight strap. She fell to Joanna Jedrzejczyk in her first defense, but returned 13 months later with a decision win over Juliana Lima.
She will give up four inches of height to the 5’5" Randa Markos (6-4).
Markos came out of nowhere to upset Tecia Torres and Felice Herrig in TUF house, reaching the semifinals before running afoul of the aforementioned Namajunas. She’s struggled to maintain that Cinderella performance in UFC, going 2-3 in the past two years.
Half of her wins have come by armbar.
There’s a fairly simple script I follow when picking an Esparza fight ... it goes something like this.
if (Opponent.takedowndefense != GODLY) {Markos has solid power and offensive grappling. They won’t matter because she can’t stop Esparza from taking her down and dominating her on the mat. Esparza may not have the striking to hang with beasts like Jedrzejczyk who can shut down her wrestling, but Markos won’t have the chance to exploit that as she’s bulldozed relentlessly for 15 minutes.
Esparza.wins++;
}
else {
Esparza.losses++;
}
Prediction: Esparza via unanimous decision
135 lbs.: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Reginaldo Vieira
The younger brother of Tristar mastermind Firas Zahabi, Aiemann Zahabi (6-0) entered professional mixed martial arts (MMA) in 2012 with a strong background in multiple martial arts. He’s brought them to bear well in the cage, ending all six of his fights inside the first round.
All but one of those fights lasted less than three minutes.
Anderson Silva’s third Bantamweight pick on TUF: "Brazil" 4, Reginaldo Vieira (13-4) rebounded from a quarterfinal loss to ultimately win the tournament after being given a second chance. He has fought just once since upsetting Dileno Lopes in the finals, a submission loss to Marco Beltran in July 2016.
Six of his nine submission wins have come by guillotine.
Zahabi definitely isn’t coasting on his name recognition -- he’s a terrific grappler with solid power on the feet and what looks to be a very high ceiling. My only real concerns at the moment are his lack of quality opposition and the fact that he looks a bit slow.
Vieira is far and away the best opponent Zahabi’s ever faced, but I’m not sure the Brazilian can overcome the Tristar product’s wrestling. Zahabi sprawls-and-brawls before locking something up when Vieira overextends.
Prediction: Zahabi via third-round submission
185 lbs.: Jack Marshman vs. Thiago Santos
A veteran of BAMMA and Cage Warriors, Jack Marshman (21-5) entered UFC on a six-fight win streak that included four first-round finishes. His debut saw him overcome 2:1 odds to knockout Magnus Cedenblad in Belfast and earn "Performance of the Night" in the process.
He has scored knockouts in 13 wins and submissions in another five.
Despite an inauspicious 1-2 start in the promotion, Thiago Santos (13-3) quickly became a fighter to watch with four consecutive victories, three of which featured first-round knockouts. A knockout loss to Gegard Mousasi halted his momentum, which was further hobbled by a massive upset submission loss to Eric Spicely.
Six of his last seven wins have come by first-round knockout.
This should be all kinds of fun. Both men have vicious power and chins that have buckled in the past. And while this statement tends to be proven terribly wrong, it's hard to imagine this lasting very long.
I'm leaning toward "Marreta," who has a more diverse striking arsenal and looks to be a tad bit faster. Unless those two losses have severely gimped his trademark aggression, expect his power kicks to break Marshman down at range.
Prediction: Santos via first-round technical knockoutComment -
Ferreria will want to get this to the ground just like he has in his last 3 or 4 fights. He'll get picked apart by Theo who will for sure throw more volume and has the superior gas tank. Unless I'm thinking of a different guy. If it's who I think it is, he was desperate for the TD versus Smith, Bamgbose and got a SUB after a TD versus Hermansson.Comment -
Theo has a constant motor. If you make Ferreira work, he'll fold IMO. He absolutely HATES getting hit and Theo isn't a power puncher but the volume on the feet should be enough to win the fight by decisionComment -
I was very disappointed in Markos last effort. Lost some money on it but she was fighting a much longer fighter. If she can sprawl the first couple takedowns, this fight will be tightComment -
Elias Theo sucks.. Did you guys see that fight with Sam Alvey?.. He throws bitch kicks and like Tpow said hates to get hit.. He's a runner... I'm fading him..
This is the fight video with Sam and Elias in the link below.https://www.mma-core.com/videos/Elia...art_1/10132175
I'll give anyone 10 bet points if they can watch this entire fight again
This fight does probably rank as one of the worst fights ever in UFC history..
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I think if Lewis can make it out of the first 7 or so minutes, he will get the win. Watched about 10 of Browne's fights and the guy has really limited cardio. With that said he is a much more technical striker and is a very good finisher in the first round or so. Might be a good spot to Livebet LewisComment -
I think those that like Browne should consider the under since 7 of his 9 UFC wins and 2 of his 5 UFC losses have come Under 1.5 Rounds, and actually all inside Round 1.Comment -
Also worth noting that both of Browne's most recent victories (against Mitrione and Schaub) came by GnP TKOComment -
just watched the fight again for fun, that was terrible and hard to watch
elias is tough and has solid cardio but his striking is terrible and if he cant land the double leg or takedowns he is not effective
his ceiling is a gatekeeper imo, unless he makes some drastic improvements but his striking is so basic mostly just kicks and single shotsComment -
Anyone have tape on Mazany or Tucker? I've had a hard time finding muchComment -
I just realized this card is Sunday and not Saturday.. LOL.. That's a new twist... Take note..Comment -
Big Rigg all day in this oneComment -
I like Ferreira. He went through a long period of being injured, now he says he has no pain after a surgery so he can take his game to the next level. Theodoro ran from Alvey the whole fight and got pot shots, don't think he can do that vs Ferreira.
I also like Meerschaert. Here are some interviews with him for some inside info:
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And here's and interview Meerschaert's opponent, Janes to get the other POV:
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