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lauzon, rivera if -200 or under ( possibly itd ) , possibly dog money on moragaComment -
Held might snap Joe's ankle..
I give him a chance in that fight and by leg sub... I think Held can take down Joe in that fight at will...Comment -
Gotta fade BJ Penn but those straight odds are brutal..
BJ's been out to long and is to old now at 38.. He hasn't fought in almost 3 years... To be thrown into the UFC again and in a 5 rounder with a young buck like this is asking to much..
The prop question is does Yair finish BJ inside 5 rounds or not?
I'm think BJ will begin to gas and become a punching bag at some point.. Ref will probably stop it at some point out of mercy.
..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Yair-Rodriguez-106305Comment -
The straight bet is the obvious play. Figuring out if Rodriquez wins by strikes or decision.Gotta fade BJ Penn but those straight odds are brutal..
BJ's been out to long and is to old now at 38.. He hasn't fought in almost 3 years... To be thrown into the UFC again and in a 5 rounder with a young buck like this is asking to much..
The prop question is does Yair finish BJ inside 5 rounds or not?
I'm think BJ will begin to gas and become a punching bag at some point.. Ref will probably stop it at some point out of mercy.
..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Yair-Rodriguez-106305Comment -
Finishes by strikes Gunny. Ko prop is the call..
BJ ain't gonna get sub'd out with his Jits back ground.. Ref stoppage or pound out on the ground.. The play is Yair by KO finish I think, 5 rounds is along time for even BJ to endure punishment round after round as tough as he is.....
Like I said I think the ref will show mercy at some point..
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Over 2.5 rounds -115 is the call for main event imo a motivated bj penn with Greg Jackson should try to grapple and keep this fight slower paced since he doesn't wanna get tagged by a crazy yair combo ... would never pay -400 for a straight up fight tbh , yair didn't look the greatest last fight getting a split over Bruce leeroy ...bj has looked bad lately but against elite fighters , yair is still an up and comer with not 1 big name win under his belt ... Andre fili probably being his biggest win yet , he's super flashy and has a bright future but I think BJ can last a bit and possibly even pull off a miracle win here.. probably go o2.5 and possible bj ITD Hail Mary small
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lWhen has a UFC veteran like BJ that has been out of the UFC octagon for 3 years and at age 38 ever come back and start winning fights against young UFC fighters in 5 round fights? I'll tell you never... BJ Penn would be the first... Goes under 2.5 rounds probably, Greg Jackson trained and coached or not Fire.. Becareful with your bets on this one.. Remember it's a young mans sport...Over 2.5 rounds -115 is the call for main event imo a motivated bj penn with Greg Jackson shoud try to grapple and keep this fight slower paced since he doesn't wanna get tagged by a crazy yair combo ... w
ould never pay -400 for a straight up fight tbh , yair didn't look the greatest last fight getting a split over Bruce leeroy ...bj has looked bad lately but against elite fighters , yair is still an up and comer with not 1 big name win under his belt ... Andre fili probably being his biggest win yet , he's super flashy and has a bright future but I think BJ can last a bit and possibly even pull off a miracle win here.. probably go o2.5 and possible bj ITD Hail Mary small
BJ hasn't won a fight in 7 years.. Let's keep it real and simple.. He belongs in Bellator and not in the UFC and he'd probably still lose even in Bellator with the talent today in that organization.... While Yair is just an average UFC fighter he is still probably good enough to beat an older and rusty BJ Penn and beat on him til he bows out or the ref shows mercy.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/BJ-Penn-1307Last edited by JIBBBY; 01-03-17, 02:44 AM.Comment -
If YR is not paid to take a dive this is what I'm thinking..
Yair Rodriguez has been in the UFC for 5 fights and won them all and is on a 7 fight win streak over all. Yair will be trained up and jacked up for this fight going up against a UFC hall of famer like BJ Penn... http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Yair-Rodriguez-106305Last edited by JIBBBY; 01-03-17, 12:42 PM.Comment -
Don't need to see sherdog links I know and have watched all their fights lol
yair is not a power striker he's a flashy striker who has 1 finish in the UFC under 2.5 rounds... he got a split decision over Bruce Leroy who is 12-9 and was kod before coming to the UFC by a bum who's 2-2.... the UFC hype machine always does stuff like this making people look better then they really are ( I've fallen for this before to ) when has a fighter ever came back at this age and won a fight ? When has a fighter ever done what bj penn has done ? He's an outlier in mma and can easily continue being one , especially a motivated bj penn who didn't just magically lose his skills, he still has a chin , he's never once in his career been finished in U2.5 rounds and fought much much heavier and bigger hitters then yair Rodriguez so I'll take my chances. Bj straight winning I'd only take a small stab because that's a much lesser % chance but assuming ITD will be +450 or more it's worth a shot and -115 u2.5 will be a normal sized bet
no young talent is taking dives in the UFC and yair in his first big main event last fight was motivated and barely squeaked out a decision over an average at best fighter ... so take that all with a grain of salt... yair could easily come out and spinning wheel kick bj into retirement but I'll take my chances with the odds -115 u2.5 I think is good value imoLast edited by firekillex; 01-03-17, 02:55 AM.Comment -
Wanna give a shout out to JakePeavy who finished #6 in BTP contest.. Impressive!!
$1200 is a nice hit buddy!!!1 timmyboy34243 49-25-1 66.22 % W 3 163.0 +34.14 - 2 DaColts 53-29-1 64.63 % W 1 125.0 +30.07 - 3 Jatt24 50-27-3 64.94 % W 4 67.5 +25.54 - 4 goucla 55-29-1 65.48 % L 2 155.5 +25.53 - 5 SnakesPicks 49-30-1 62.03 % L 1 -65.0 +23.61 - 6 JAKEPEAVY21 50-30-5 62.50 % W 3 77.0 +23.28 - 7 mr. leisure 48-27-0 64.00 % W 5 88.0 +22.65 - 8 Capybara 53-32-0 62.35 % W 1 -32.5 +22.14 - 9 JACK MATZ 51-26-3 66.23 % W 2 15.5 +22.13 - 10 stump 51-30-4 62.96 % W 2 134.0 +21.77 - 132 JIBBBY 46-37-2 55.42 % L 2 42.0 +5.32 - 
1st $10,000 2nd $4,000
3rd $2,000 4th $1,500 5th $1,400 6th $1,200 7th $1,100 8th $1,000 9th $950 10th $925 Last edited by JIBBBY; 01-03-17, 03:28 AM.Comment -
Motivated BJ Penn does not exist imo. I wasn't around for his time at the top of the sport but I've never been too impressed with his overall resume and I think it's crazy that some people include him in the GOAT conversation. With that said, I think Yair will have a tough time finishing BJ early and this one might even go to the cards. Not sure how I'll play it yet.Comment -
thanks Jibblet, it was a roller coaster but happy with 6th
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Will play the under 2.5 at +100 for the main event. The co main is Caraway. They needed a drawing name for the main event spot and of all people Penn was avaiable.Comment -
In theory (and on paper), its hard to imagine BJ winning this fight. BUT....we all know how the UFC takes care of their "cash cows". They cancelled an entire card when BJ got injured just a few months ago. Nothing would surprise me here. Best of luck to those who dive in.Comment -
Not sure BJ Penn has the same marketing effect as a Rousey in regards to the impact of winning and or losing for the UFC..
It would be a good story though if BJ won but I don't think a fix will be in play here.. I'm not gonna let that stop me from betting large on Yair.. Yairs rattled off 7 wins in a row now and doubt he'd agree to taking a dive and accept an L on his record at this point as his stock is currently on the rise..
The only fix I could envision in this fight is with the judging if it ever went to the cards which I don't think it will. BJ Penn might be shown some favoritism in the scoring perhaps...Comment -
Moraga at +$ seems to obvious...Comment -
Jimmie Rivera, easily.Comment -
You think so Jibbs?? I don't see it. Held has fared poorly against pressure fighters and Lauzon will bring the heat. On the feet Lauzon is much better. His striking lately has been pretty versatile and he shouldn't have much problem with Held. If he can get on top and keep a good pace, Held will wilt. The only way Held wins is if he gets takedowns and lasts 3 rounds. I don't see it. And I completely disagree that he will sub him with any leg business. Joe is way better than that. The only caution I have here is age and that's it. Not seeing anything else in Held's favor.Comment -
JL is too much of a madman to go down by leg lock LOL...last GOOD win was in 2014.....IMO its fade time for JL......QUOTE=Shagdogy;26675941]You think so Jibbs?? I don't see it. Held has fared poorly against pressure fighters and Lauzon will bring the heat. On the feet Lauzon is much better. His striking lately has been pretty versatile and he shouldn't have much problem with Held. If he can get on top and keep a good pace, Held will wilt. The only way Held wins is if he gets takedowns and lasts 3 rounds. I don't see it. And I completely disagree that he will sub him with any leg business. Joe is way better than that. The only caution I have here is age and that's it. Not seeing anything else in Held's favor.[/QUOTE]Comment -
Joe doesn't have the best take down defense and you gotta think Held's wrestling is a bit better then Joe's..... Held I think can take him down as he is the shorter and stronger fighter..
Sure Joe is tough, good at Jits, but Held is a master at leg locks.. Joe is kinda long and rangy and it's gonna be hard for him to protect those limbs if Held is getting those take downs at will... Held might be able to hold his own standing as well against Joey for a time.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Joe-Lauzon-4923
Held is tough to finish period. This fight is a tight call though I can't lie.. Maybe Held by sub hedged with Joey by decision is the call if the odds on both props are doable?...http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Marcin-Held-47065
Last edited by JIBBBY; 01-03-17, 04:19 PM.Comment -
wasnt impressed at all by helds performance against diego sanchez, fight IQ looked terrible as well
really like -130 price tag for lauzon imo, i think hell piece him up on the fight or stiffle his leg lock attacks, highly doubt he gets heel hooked or taps in this fightComment -
I agree but Diego (legit Brazilian black belt) is short and stocky and hard to land a leg sub on.. Diego also has decent wrestling. Bad match up for Held..
On the flip I also wasn't all that impressed with Joe losing to Jim Miller in his last fight and before that Evan Durham beating the crap out of Joe round after round..Last edited by JIBBBY; 01-03-17, 04:28 PM.Comment -
lauzon seems to switch loss for win , he starched diego sanchez on the feet before losing to jim miller last, evan dunham is honestly super underrated guy could easily be top 10-15 range, he beat michael chiesa whos a solid fighter , just wasnt impressed by helds fight iq at all he was tagging diego on the feet and kept diving for terrible takedowns then getting stuffed and controlled when he easily couldve won the fight, lauzon is a super intelligent dude so if held comes out like that again he will lose , lauzon is super hit or miss so wont be a big bet but at -130 i see value plus he lost last fight so he wins this and losses the next hahaComment -
I wouldn't doubt Held's cardio too much. The Diego fight was at altitude. Fighting Diego will tire anyone out, much less at high altitude. He's gone the distance in the past. Cardio not as big an issue as it might look IMO.
However I think his hands suck compared to Lauzon's. I don't like anything Held offers on the feet. I also don't trust his wrestling. I like Lauzon here, cautiously because if age and Held could have big learning curve.Comment -
Man Jibby, I know you're good at this, but I really think you gotta let this leg lock thing go. Lauzon is not getting subbed by leg lock. No way. Even worse, if Held tries to drop down under Lauzon and commit two hands to one of Lauzon's legs then he's just gonna get his face pounded. you can't defend strikes when you're trying to wrench a leg. Lauzon will be on top punching the crap out of him. I will be shocked if he leg locks Lauzon, and I really think trying is a losing strategy.Comment -
I believe Held should have taken more than two months off to sharpen his stand-up. He'll be out gunned against Lauzon. Don't see the leg lock working on that vet.Comment -
^^^I never said Held is lock, relax guys.. Good chance Joey could get the best of Held standing if this doesn't become a ground battle.. I know this...
In the end I'll probably end up playing this fight with JL by decision and hedging with Held by sub...Last edited by JIBBBY; 01-03-17, 06:13 PM.Comment -
We gotta wait 2 weeks for this event.. I don't like this at all
.... No Bellator either... Errrr!!!!
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Moraga is getting up in age and has had a LOT of fights. I'm very turned off with how poor he looked in his last fight. He was much slower and less active than usual and just didn't seem to have it. Now he's coming in on short notice against a young fighter with good foot work, pace, and range. I get the sense that Moraga is on the decline and this could be a chance for Sergio to step up and take the mantle as the best Pettis in the UFC currently. However, if the Moraga that fought Benevidez shows up, he will give Sergio a lot of trouble and would probably win with his clinch and wrestling. My gut tells me that on short notice he will again be slow and inactive though. I like Pettis to keep it standing for the most part with his pace and foot work and technically outstrike Moraga to decision. Tough call.Comment