UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs Penn (January 15, 2017)

[Hugo de Naranja]

Personally I think OO gets it....Daniel Omielanczuk had to dig deep to earn a decision and I imagine he edges this one---

I think Oliynik finishes him early. Pesta is a bum imo. That said, if he doesn't get the early finish, he might gas and get grinded out.

[Hugo de Naranja]

$75.00	$247.89		Pending	4 Team Parlay
					Pending	1/15/17 11:30pm UFC Fighting 1002 Yair Rodriguez -440* vs B.J. Penn
					Pending	1/15/17 9:00pm UFC Fighting 1502 Oleksiy Oliynyk -140* vs Viktor Pesta
					Pending	1/15/17 8:30pm UFC Fighting 1602 Tony Martin -225* vs Alex White
					Pending	1/15/17 6:30pm UFC Fighting 2002 Joachim Christensen -240* vs Bojan Mihajlovic

Not sure if there's value on Martin or Yair at those straight prices.

[TPowell]

Really like Asker in the first fight. Asker has fought much better competition weird enough being in Africa but he struggles with mini HW's (guys that should be at 205). The fight against Cannonier shows that as well as his loss to Karl Moore and decision win against another LHW. Asker wants to be the guy pressuring forward with his boxing and he has the speed edge in this fight to do that IMO. I'm thinking the following:

Asker R3 (+1075)
Asker R2 (+575)
Asker by decision (+410)

[TPowell]

Not sure if there's value on Martin or Yair at those straight prices.

-225 isn't bad. At -200, I may have a little something on him. White's strengths are his size and he's moving up and losing those strengths IMO. The gas tank of Martin is scary though

[TPowell]

I think Oliynik finishes him early. Pesta is a bum imo. That said, if he doesn't get the early finish, he might gas and get grinded out.

OO no cards is.... -305, damn thought that might have been cheaper. Still, not a bad parlay piece potentially

[Hugo de Naranja]

OO no cards is.... -305, damn thought that might have been cheaper. Still, not a bad parlay piece potentially

I got ITD at (+171). Like that better than the straight price

[TPowell]

I got ITD at (+171). Like that better than the straight price

ehhh, I think Pesta has a real shot at a decision here though. He can usually make it out of round 1 and if he does, he should win this fight

[PaperTrail07]

YAIR there is----he will win---end of story IMO....not putting my life on it but damn....no way BJ wins...surprise me...Martin I disagree-not saying its great value....White is Good but does not impress....

Not sure if there's value on Martin or Yair at those straight prices.

[PaperTrail07]

He will get the takedown and lay on Pesta IMO....never wanna be on the bottom of that LOL...

-225 isn't bad. At -200, I may have a little something on him. White's strengths are his size and he's moving up and losing those strengths IMO. The gas tank of Martin is scary though

[TPowell]

OO in R1 may be the better option at +300

[JIBBBY]

Not sure if there's value on Martin or Yair at those straight prices.

Yep not a ton of value on the Martin straight..

I'm gonna play Martin by sub, and hedge White by 3rd round finish.. May hedge and hit White in round 2 finish prop as well since the odds are so large on those 2 props....

Martin wins most of his fights by sub, and if he loses it's usually late in fights because he gasses out.. Both fighters don't go to decision very often either. My betting logic on this fight anyways..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Tony-Martin-80436

1631

Martin wins by submission

+195

hedge

1619

White wins in round 3

+2225

1617

White wins in round 2

+1425

[Broxbomber]

Really like Asker in the first fight. Asker has fought much better competition weird enough being in Africa but he struggles with mini HW's (guys that should be at 205). The fight against Cannonier shows that as well as his loss to Karl Moore and decision win against another LHW. Asker wants to be the guy pressuring forward with his boxing and he has the speed edge in this fight to do that IMO. I'm thinking the following:

Asker R3 (+1075)
Asker R2 (+575)
Asker by decision (+410)

Asker Round 3 is +2000 on Bet365. I'm still pleasantly surprised at Bet365's prop odds.

[JIBBBY]

Asker Round 3 is +2000 on Bet365. I'm still pleasantly surprised at Bet365's prop odds.

I wish Americans could sign up on Bet365.. I've tried several different ways to join Bet365 and get rejected every time.. Don't take US based gamblers.. ....

[Hugo de Naranja]

ehhh, I think Pesta has a real shot at a decision here though. He can usually make it out of round 1 and if he does, he should win this fight

Just live bet him if he survives R1

[Shagdogy]

Straight bet leans, in order, are Klose, Harris, Lauzon, Pettis. Prob gonna split 10-12 total units up between them.

[Sam Losco]

lauzon by ko/tko/dq/submission +250

[Hugo de Naranja]

lauzon by ko/tko/dq/submission +250

I think it's more likely Lauzon gets the KO but Lauzon Submission is up to (+1010). I played it for a half unit at those odds

[TPowell]

Yair by sub is an interesting play in the main event (+750 or so). I think he gets Penn to the point where he's out on his feet. Could lock in a sub late

[JIBBBY]

Sunday card.. Over laps with football..

Guys I might be out on this event.. Will log in late.. GL everyone.. Gotta take a pass and tivo this event and try to catch up live..

GL everyone!!

[Shagdogy]

Sunday card.. Over laps with football..

Guys I might be out on this event.. Will log in late.. GL everyone.. Gotta take a pass and tivo this event and try to catch up live..

GL everyone!!

Been riding much better in MMA than Football lately. May just save my football allowance and go bigger on these fights.

What are you on for football? I like chiefs-1 and GB+200. I hit on Atl/NE tease yesterday but lost an under. Small gain.

[JIBBBY]

Been riding much better in MMA than Football lately. May just save my football allowance and go bigger on these fights.

What are you on for football? I like chiefs-1 and GB+200. I hit on Atl/NE tease yesterday but lost an under. Small gain.

Yep GL Shag!!

Well I figure I'll always have MMA to bet on and watch almost once a week.. .NFL playoffs come and go once a year.. This card isn't all that either..

I personally haven't lost an NFL playoff game or bet yet. 6 favorites won in the playoffs and I played them all large, shooting for 2 more favorites to hit today.. Cowboys and KC.. Main reason I went from 0 bet points just a month ago to 7000 bet points today.. Well I also finally took bet point betting seriously as well. .. Hoping to continue the NFL hot play on the real books.

I'm not betting the early prelims on this event either.. I will be betting some of the Fox prelim fights and watching them on DVR delayed..

Should be a fun day of sports!!!!

[JIBBBY]

These are my plays for this card - Keeping it simple..

1) Martin by sub hedged with White ITD

2) Oleinik straight and ITD..

3) Frankie Saenz straight

4) John Moraga straight

5) Klose by KO

6) McGee straight

7) Held ITD hedged Lauzon by UN Dec.

8) Yair straight and parlay'd, fight goes 2 rounds..

[Shagdogy]

Going against you on a few Jibbs:

Klose 5u, -250
Harris 2.5u, -140
Pettis 2.5u, -142
Lauzon 1u, -125
Mendes 1u, +131

Second straight card I'm taking the juice. Hope it doesn't catch up. GL everyone.

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC Fight Night 103: Rodriguez vs. Penn Picks:
Dmitrii Smolyakov Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Joachim Christensen Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)
Chase Sherman Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Nina Ansaroff Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)
Drakkar Klose Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
Alex WhiteSplit Decision (29-28 x2, 28-29)
Aleksei Oliynik Round 1 KO (Punch)
Augusto Mendes Split Decision (29-28 x2, 28-29)
Sergio Pettis Unanimous Decision (30-27 x2, 29-28)
Court McGee Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)
Joe Lauzon Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Yair Rodriguez Unanimous Decision (49-46, 48-47 x2)

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC Fight Night 103: Rodriguez vs. Penn Draftkings Double Up Lineup:
Yair Rodriguez ($9,200)
Aleksei Oliynik ($8,600)
Joe Lauzon ($8,500)
Sergio Pettis ($8,100)
Nina Ansaroff ($8,100)
Chase Sherman ($7,500)

Risk: 1u

UFC Fight Night 103: Rodriguez vs. Penn Draftkings Tournament Lineup:
Tony Martin ($8,900)
Aleksei Oliynik ($8,600)
Joe Lauzon ($8,500)
Dmitrii Smolyakov ($8,200)
Nina Ansaroff ($8,100)
Chase Sherman ($7,500)

Risk: .2u

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC Fight Night 103: Rodriguez vs. Penn

Fight Pass Prelims:

Fight #1: Smolyakov vs. Asker
Smolyakov Round 1 (+300) 1u

Fight #2: Mihajlovic vs. Christensen
No Bet

Fight #3: Sherman vs. Harris
Sherman+Harris Under 1.5 (+105) 1.5u
Sherman Scorecards = No Action (+150) .5u
Sherman Round 1 (+500) .25u

Hedge:
Harris Decision (+430) .5u

Fight #4: Ansaroff vs. Jones-Lybarger
Ansaroff (+100) 2u
Ansaroff KO (+510) .5u

Hedge:
Jones-Lybarger Decision (+210) 1u

Fox Sports 1 Prelims:

Fight #5: Klose (DEBUT) vs. Powell (DEBUT)
No Bet

Fight #6: White vs. Martin
White (+240) 1u
White Round 3 (+2225) .25u
White/Martin Draw (+6500) .2u

Fight #7: Oliynik vs. Pesta
Oliynik ITD (+171) 2u
Oliynik/Pesta Draw (+6500) .4u

Hedge:
Pesta Round 1 (+900) .5u

Fight #8: Saenz vs. Mendes
Mendes ITD (+390) .75u
Mendes KO/TKO (+1192) .25u

Main Card:

Fight #9: Moraga vs. Pettis
Moraga (+150) 1u
Moraga Submission (+670) .5u
Moraga Round 2 (+825) .5u
Moraga Round 3 (+1475) 1u

Hedge(s):
Pettis Decision (+151) 1u
Pettis -3.5 (+190) .5u

Fight #10: McGee vs. Saunders
McGee+Saunders Over 2.5 (-115) 2.3u to win 2u
McGee (+105) 1u

Fight #11: Lauzon vs. Held
Lauzon (-140) 2.8u to win 2u
Lauzon Scorecards = No Action (+109) 2u
Lauzon ITD (+250) 1u
Lauzon KO/TKO (+435) 1u
Lauzon Round 1 (+650) 1u
Lauzon Round 2 (+875) .5u
Lauzon Submission (+1010) .5u
Lauzon/Held Draw (+5500) .4u

Hedge(s):
Held Decision (+300) 1u
Held Submission (+520) 1.25u

Fight #12: Rodriguez vs. Penn
Rodriguez Decision (+345) 3u
Rodriguez Round 4 (+725) 1u
Rodriguez Round 5 (+1175) .5u
Rodriguez Split/Majority Decision (+1135) .25u
Rodriguez/Penn Draw (+7000) .2u

Hedge(s):
Penn Scorecards = No Action (+403) 2u
Penn Round 1 (+1325) .25u
Penn Round 2 (+1550) .25u
Penn Decision (+1100) .25u
Penn Split/Majority Decision (+2525) .25u

Straight Parlays:
Klose+Powell Over 1.5/Oliynik (+164) 1u

Prop Parlays:
Mendes SNA/Saunders SNA/Lauzon SNA (+678) .5u
Ansaroff SNA/Moraga SNA/Saunders SNA/Lauzon SNA (+702) 1u
Oliynik ITD/Mendes/Pettis Decision (+1151) .25u
Sherman+Harris Under 1.5/Oliynik ITD/Lauzon+Held Under 2.5 (+1322) .25u
Saenz Decision/Pettis Decision/McGee Decision (+1600) .25u
Harris Decision/Jones-Lybarger Decision (+1773) .25u
Ansaroff Decision/Pettis Decision/Held Decision (+1826) .25u
Martin Submission/Held Submission (+1884) .25u
Moraga ITD/Rodriguez Decision (+2080) .5u
Smolyakov Round 1/Christensen -3.5/Sherman KO (+2246) .25u
Oliynik KO/Lauzon KO (+2690) .25u
Ansaroff Decision/Klose Decision/White Decision (+2959) .25u
McGee Decision/Lauzon ITD/Rodriguez Decision (+5037) .25u

Full Card Props:
Over 6.5 Fights Go Distance (+186) 1.75u
Over 7.5 Fights Go Distance (+490) .5u
No Fights End in Submission (+1119) .25u
Over 8.5 Fights Go Distance (+1419) .25u
Over 9.5 Fights Go Distance (+5850) .1u

[JIBBBY]

^ GL Hugo, you certainly put more brain power and thought into this event then I did.. Hope ya kill it man!!!

[Hugo de Naranja]

Going against you on a few Jibbs:

Klose 5u, -250
Harris 2.5u, -140
Pettis 2.5u, -142
Lauzon 1u, -125
Mendes 1u, +131

Second straight card I'm taking the juice. Hope it doesn't catch up. GL everyone.

Best of luck Shaggy. I respect that you post your plays and bet sizes BEFORE the event.

[Hugo de Naranja]

^ GL Hugo, you certainly put more brain power and thought into this event then I did.. Hope ya kill it man!!!

Thanks bud!

[TPowell]

1 UNIT- Rodriguez -5.5 and Christensen ML (+100)
0.20 UNITS- Mendes by SUB (+495)
0.25 UNITS- Christensen by SUB (+364)
0.50 UNITS- Asker/Smoliakov OVER 1.5 rounds (+102)
0.25 UNITS- Cyril Asker by decision (+400)
0.20 UNITS- Cyril Asker R2 (+584)
0.12 UNITS- Cyril Asker R3 (+1100)
0.37 UNITS- Oleynik R1 (+250) and then Pesta LIVE
0.10 UNITS- Pesta R2 (+1025)
0.07 UNITS- Pesta R3 (+1775)
0.37 UNITS- Harris R1 (+275)
0.50 UNITS- Harris/Sherman goes distance (+185)


Martin ML some kind of way

[TPowell]

Think these big boy fights will last potentially. Smoliakov has beat up on cans and Asker won't be befuddled by his speed on the feet like he was against Cannonier. Cannonier is a great athlete at 205, much less at HW. I'm willing to give Asker a pass for that fight and I think he looked good before that fight in his career. I think Harris R1 is a likely scenario but if not, it goes the distance. Harris tends to slow down a lot and I think it'll be a borefest late that could go the distance. After his long layoff last fight led to terrible cardio, I think Oleynik is 1 round and done again here. Pesta probably wins a decision but he could just quit and at +1000+, I like the odds.

[Shagdogy]

Sherman's best weapon is his right leg, but with Harris as a southpaw his lead leg won't be there to hit, and Sherman looks like too much of a meathead to do much with inside leg kicks. Agreed it could be boring but I expect Harris to be just a little better everywhere. I never go too big on the big boys though.

[KingHawkins]

Here we go. I'm asking for Asker to cash for me during half-time.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Here we go. I'm asking for Asker to cash for me during half-time.

If he gets out of Round 1, he will almost certainly win.

[KingHawkins]

awesome. R1 KO