UFC Fight Night 102 - Derrick Lewis vs Shamil Abrurakhimov (December 9th, 2016)

[TPowell]

Hard to believe that Burgos is getting all this respect against a UFC veteran, coming in on short notice. Still looking at this one but I think Trator may be a live dog as well

[TPowell]

Randy Brown is just not that good. His ground game is just embarrassing. Camozzi is a decently well balanced guy. I think he can get the takedown in this fight and who knows what happens from there. What I do know is that Randy Brown just isn't very good overall and Camozzi has some decent boxing and can fight in the clinch as well. He's a long guy and Brown won't have his usual huge reach edge over this guy. Lastly, Camozzi has a pretty decent ground game and can potentially lock in a sub if Brown isn't careful

[TPowell]

I like Lewis and Diakiese as favorites for sure and will have them in a parlays potentially. I think Anderson may be in that parlay as well. I'm not sure O'Connell hits hard enough to get that big KO that he HAS to have to win here. He'll get taken to the ground a ton in this fight. That KO is his only shot because Anderson has the gas tank to at least ground him for the first 2 rounds for the decision. I probably won't play the Sanchez/Smith fight or the Gerald fight Maybe toss Kish in a parlay as well?

[PaperTrail07]

Honestly I think you are just not giving enough credit to Graves and his speed and wrestling....there is no way you've seen more tape than that IMO......He made Brown look HORRIBLE we get that.....Camozzi does not even deserve to be in the cage IMO...

Randy Brown is just not that good. His ground game is just embarrassing. Camozzi is a decently well balanced guy. I think he can get the takedown in this fight and who knows what happens from there. What I do know is that Randy Brown just isn't very good overall and Camozzi has some decent boxing and can fight in the clinch as well. He's a long guy and Brown won't have his usual huge reach edge over this guy. Lastly, Camozzi has a pretty decent ground game and can potentially lock in a sub if Brown isn't careful

[PaperTrail07]

I have a feeling Burgos makes Trator look stupid.....

Hard to believe that Burgos is getting all this respect against a UFC veteran, coming in on short notice. Still looking at this one but I think Trator may be a live dog as well

[Hugo de Naranja]

Hard to believe that Burgos is getting all this respect against a UFC veteran, coming in on short notice. Still looking at this one but I think Trator may be a live dog as well

Took Trator for 1u at (+160)

[TPowell]

Honestly I think you are just not giving enough credit to Graves and his speed and wrestling....there is no way you've seen more tape than that IMO......He made Brown look HORRIBLE we get that.....Camozzi does not even deserve to be in the cage IMO...

Brown looked bad in that Montano fight as well before he got that sub. Montano's are both very low level guys. Graves is a solid fighter with great wrestling. Not holding that fight against him but ANYONE with a ground game will exploit Brown IMO. He beat Jouban in a striking match which showed he can definitely strike but he's not this crazy powerful striker and he struggles on the ground, which isn't a good combo at all. I think the OVER may be a thing in this fight depending on the juice. Fight is -115 to hit the scorecards which could be a good play

[PaperTrail07]

FOR ME----the motivation is hard to predict w Perez.....gave up MMA for his family now he is back? ---hmmmm guy need a paycheck?

I like Lewis and Diakiese as favorites for sure and will have them in a parlays potentially. I think Anderson may be in that parlay as well. I'm not sure O'Connell hits hard enough to get that big KO that he HAS to have to win here. He'll get taken to the ground a ton in this fight. That KO is his only shot because Anderson has the gas tank to at least ground him for the first 2 rounds for the decision. I probably won't play the Sanchez/Smith fight or the Gerald fight Maybe toss Kish in a parlay as well?

[Hugo de Naranja]

I like Lewis and Diakiese as favorites for sure and will have them in a parlays potentially. I think Anderson may be in that parlay as well. I'm not sure O'Connell hits hard enough to get that big KO that he HAS to have to win here. He'll get taken to the ground a ton in this fight. That KO is his only shot because Anderson has the gas tank to at least ground him for the first 2 rounds for the decision. I probably won't play the Sanchez/Smith fight or the Gerald fight Maybe toss Kish in a parlay as well?

If you like Anderson, I'd suggest getting some extra value by taking him -3.5. If he wins it will likely be a dominant decision or finish. I highly doubt Anderson wins a 29-28 x3 or a split decision.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Who beat Jouban in a striking match?

[TPowell]

FOR ME----the motivation is hard to predict w Perez.....gave up MMA for his family now he is back? ---hmmmm guy need a paycheck?

def the paycheck IMO. Probably just wanted a go at fighting in New York. Diakiese is the real deal and he can put you out quickly. His takedown defense worries me some but think he can sprawl and brawl well enough.

[PaperTrail07]

I'm not saying Brown is top top here.....I just think he rolls Camozzi...

Brown looked bad in that Montano fight as well before he got that sub. Montano's are both very low level guys. Graves is a solid fighter with great wrestling. Not holding that fight against him but ANYONE with a ground game will exploit Brown IMO. He beat Jouban in a striking match which showed he can definitely strike but he's not this crazy powerful striker and he struggles on the ground, which isn't a good combo at all. I think the OVER may be a thing in this fight depending on the juice. Fight is -115 to hit the scorecards which could be a good play

[TPowell]

Who beat Jouban in a striking match?

damn it, Matt Dwyer lol. Not sure why I got those 2 mixed up

[TPowell]

If you like Anderson, I'd suggest getting some extra value by taking him -3.5. If he wins it will likely be a dominant decision or finish. I highly doubt Anderson wins a 29-28 x3 or a split decision.

I agree and I'll probably parlay the -3.5 with Anderson. Its gotta be Anderson by wide decision IMO

[PaperTrail07]

was wondering the same thing--Tumenov?

Who beat Jouban in a striking match?

[TPowell]

was wondering the same thing--Tumenov?

meant to say Matt Dwyer.

[Shagdogy]

FOR ME----the motivation is hard to predict w Perez.....gave up MMA for his family now he is back? ---hmmmm guy need a paycheck?

Agreed that it's worrisome but if you read up he gave it up after the Stout fight when his grandfather had just died and his grandmother was dying. Apparently he was very close to them, but I think he's motivated now. Been back and training for a year and was a part of Alvarez's entire camp for McGregor. I think he'll be prepared to fight.

[PaperTrail07]

Camozzi is just not athletic enough to win this fight....

[PaperTrail07]

Thanks for the Info.....the snap retirement "makes sense" now....emotional times.....I never doubted his skills so I might avoid this one ......

Agreed that it's worrisome but if you read up he gave it up after the Stout fight when his grandfather had just died and his grandmother was dying. Apparently he was very close to them, but I think he's motivated now. Been back and training for a year and was a part of Alvarez's entire camp for McGregor. I think he'll be prepared to fight.

[Shagdogy]

Hard to believe that Burgos is getting all this respect against a UFC veteran, coming in on short notice. Still looking at this one but I think Trator may be a live dog as well

Burgos is younger, hungrier, and he's very long and strangely solid. Hard to hurt. Trator throws such short strikes to begin with and now he's at a massive reach disadvantage I don't think he touches Burgos. Also don't think he holds him down. I think the length of Burgos and lack of length in Trator's game makes this a very very bad matchup for him.

[TPowell]

Burgos is younger, hungrier, and he's very long and strangely solid. Hard to hurt. Trator throws such short strikes to begin with and now he's at a massive reach disadvantage I don't think he touches Burgos. Also don't think he holds him down. I think the length of Burgos and lack of length in Trator's game makes this a very very bad matchup for him.

Trator def won't hurt Burgos on the feet. I think he has decent striking because he mixes it up well but Trator can't really hurt you. More of a point fight style of striking

[Shagdogy]

Trator def won't hurt Burgos on the feet. I think he has decent striking because he mixes it up well but Trator can't really hurt you. More of a point fight style of striking

So he's gonna land enough to outpoint Burgos? I don't see it. His strikes are so short. Or do you see him getting takedowns and control?

[Hugo de Naranja]

So he's gonna land enough to outpoint Burgos? I don't see it. His strikes are so short. Or do you see him getting takedowns and control?

Yup Trator is going to win a decision. Burgos sloppy af, nothing special.

[TPowell]

So he's gonna land enough to outpoint Burgos? I don't see it. His strikes are so short. Or do you see him getting takedowns and control?

Could be either one. I just can't back a guy on a short notice debut who isn't a blue chip prospect. Burgos can be bullied against the cage at times and his strike defense isn't much either. He does have a great chin though. I think the play on Trator is def by decision because he just isn't a finisher. Burgos has a decent sub game as well so he def has more ways to win but Trator by decision is +370 and I think that is way out of line. If Burgos gets nervous or has an adrenaline dump, Trator by decision easily cashes IMO

[Shagdogy]

Never max bet heavyweights but Black Beast is close. Should be -400 IMO.

[Shagdogy]

Could be either one. I just can't back a guy on a short notice debut who isn't a blue chip prospect. Burgos can be bullied against the cage at times and his strike defense isn't much either. He does have a great chin though. I think the play on Trator is def by decision because he just isn't a finisher. Burgos has a decent sub game as well so he def has more ways to win but Trator by decision is +370 and I think that is way out of line. If Burgos gets nervous or has an adrenaline dump, Trator by decision easily cashes IMO

You guys were really making me doubt myself so I went back and watched a bit more of tape on these guys and I'm even more convinced that Burgos is gonna steamroll Trator. He uses the inside leg kick very well to keep range and has a very solid lead left hook which is exactly what De La Torre used to absolutely piece up Trator. He ate him up with the lead left.

I know I don't have much of a track record here so I won't try to tell anyone to get off Trator, but I'm def. gonna be on Burgos here. I will consider a Trator by dec. hedge just because of the possible adrenaline dump, but I think Burgos wins this fight easy. We won't agree on all them, I guess. Good luck nonetheless.

[TPowell]

You guys were really making me doubt myself so I went back and watched a bit more of tape on these guys and I'm even more convinced that Burgos is gonna steamroll Trator. He uses the inside leg kick very well to keep range and has a very solid lead left hook which is exactly what De La Torre used to absolutely piece up Trator. He ate him up with the lead left.

I know I don't have much of a track record here so I won't try to tell anyone to get off Trator, but I'm def. gonna be on Burgos here. I will consider a Trator by dec. hedge just because of the possible adrenaline dump, but I think Burgos wins this fight easy. We won't agree on all them, I guess. Good luck nonetheless.

You've done more research than me it seems then. I would def advise the Trator by decision hedge (+370). I may try to shoot for a hedge myself if the line goes down some on Burgos. I just can't see Trator finishing Burgos

[Shagdogy]

4u Lewis -180 to win 2.2
4u Burgos -175 to win 2.3
1.5u Perez +265 to win 4
1u Smith +185 to win 1.85

That's all. Time to look into Saturday night now. Good luck.

[TPowell]

4u Lewis -180 to win 2.2
4u Burgos -175 to win 2.3
1.5u Perez +265 to win 4
1u Smith +185 to win 1.85

That's all. Time to look into Saturday night now. Good luck.

Like Lewis myself. Not big on the Perez/Gagnon fight either way. I lean towards Sanchez but reality is that its 2 grapplers going at it. Think Sanchez would win a striking matchup though. Think I'm gonna put Lewis ML with Anderson ML potentially in a parlay

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC Fight Night 102: Lewis vs. Abdurakhimov Picks:
Juliana Lima Unanimous Decision (30-27 x2, 29-28)
Ryan Janes Round 2 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Marc Diakiese Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Tiago Trator Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)
Andrew Sanchez Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Joe Gigliotti Round 1 Submission (Guillotine Choke)
Randy Brown Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
Ashley Yoder Round 2 Submission (Armbar)
Gian Villante Round 3 TKO (Punches)
Corey Anderson Unanimous Decision (30-26, 30-27 x2)
Francis Ngannou Round 2 KO (Punch)
Derrick Lewis Round 1 TKO (Murder)

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC FN 102: Lewis vs. Abdurakhimov Draftkings Tournament Lineup:
Derrick Lewis ($9,100)
Gian Villante ($8,800)
Andrew Sanchez ($8,700)
Randy Brown ($8,200)
Joe Gigliotti ($7,600)
Sean O’Connell ($7,200)

Risk: .2u

Note: No DK Double Up Lineup for this event

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC Fight Night 102: Lewis vs. Abdurakhimov

Fight Pass Prelims:

Lima vs. Aldrich (DEBUT)
No Bet

Berish vs. Janes (DEBUT)
No Bet

Perez vs. Diakiese
No Bet

Trator vs. Burgos (DEBUT)
Trator (+160) 1u

Sanchez vs. Smith
No Bet

Gigliotti vs. Meerschaert
Gigliotti/Meerschaert Under 1.5 (+140) 1u

Brown vs. Camozzi (DEBUT)
No Bet

Kish vs. Yoder (DEBUT)
Yoder (+200) 1u

Main Card:

Villante vs. Safarov
Villante Decision (+420) .5u
Villante Round 3 (+1000) .25u

Anderson vs. O’Connell
Anderson+O’Connell Over 2.5 Rounds (-120) 2.4u to win 2u
O’Connell (+330) 1u
O’Connell KO/TKO (+900) .25u
O’Connell Round 3 (+2250) .25u

Hedge:
Anderson Decision (+148) 1u

Ngannou vs. Hamilton
Ngannou Submission (+1200) 1u

Hedge:
Hamilton Decision (+1045) .5u

Lewis vs. Abdurakhimov
Lewis KO/TKO (-140) 2.8u to win 2u
Lewis Round 1 (+200) 1u
Lewis/Abdurakhimov Goes Distance (+600) 1u
Lewis/Abdurakhimov Draw (+9000) .2u

Hedge:
Abdurakhimov Decision (+1420) 1.5u

Straight Parlays:
Lima+Aldrich Over 2.5/Brown (+127) 1u
Villante/Lewis (+135) 2u

Prop Parlays:
Gigliotti Submission/Anderson Decision (+1577) .25u
Janes Submission/Yoder Submission (+1838) .25u
Trator Decision/Smith Decision (+2467) .25u
Anderson+O’Connell Over 2.5/Abdurakhimov Decision (+2686) .25u

Multi-Event Parlays:
Lewis/Cerrone (+105) 1u
Lewis/Holloway (+135) 2u

[Hugo de Naranja]

I'll be at this event live so I won't be posting in the forum tomorrow night. Best of luck to everybody!

[JIBBBY]

Be careful with Lima against Aldrich. She'll be able to bully her for sure, but Lima does gas and if she's winning this fight she'll have a very tough time conserving any energy late in this fight. I'm thinking of playing Aldrich +3.5 if the line is decent. I think Lima fades and Aldrich comes on strong to at least win round 3.

This is the first fight -

Like Hugo did this should be a no play....I'd be throwing darts at a board picking the favorite Lima I guess and by decision... It's a gamble though TPow like you suggest with these chicks... Both seem pretty durable...I'll try Lima by Decision for small just for giggles and kicks at +120 to stay entertained.....

UFC Fight Pass Early Prelims



Juliana
Lima
"Ju Thai"
vs
JJ
Aldrich

BRAZIL
Country
USA

8-3-0
Record
2-1-0

25%
KO/TKO
25%

0%
SUB
0%

75%
DEC
25%

65 in
Height
0 in

115 lbs
Weight
115 lbs

65 in
Reach
67 in

39 in
Leg Reach
37 in

[Sanity Check]

Lima does gas

Its funny you mention that.

I just read a thing where Lima said her cardio is better than ever.

A lot of the names fighting on this card haven't fought in a long time.

That could make things hard.