UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Brunson (November 26th, 2016, Melbourne Australia)

[JIBBBY]

I hedged alot of fights on this card.. I originally thought there could be some big money to be made but after watching vids and reading up on all fighters I ended up seeing most of the fights going one way or the other.. I still expect to make some good money with this event but nothing huge with all the hedge play... Playing this card a bit safe in other words..

Locked loaded...

I'll post my plays tomorrow before fight time.. Too tired to do it now...

[BIGDAY]

I hedged alot of fights on this card.. I originally thought there could be some big money to be made but after watching vids and reading up on all fighters I ended up seeing most of the fights going one way or the other.. I still expect to make some good money with this event but nothing huge with all the hedge play... Playing this card a bit safe in other words..

Locked loaded...

I'll post my plays tomorrow before fight time.. Too tired to do it now...

Jibbbbbbbbbbbbbay!!!

It's fight day!

Stop talking about taking it easy and Pound the fawkin winners.

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC FN 101: Whittaker vs. Brunson Picks:
Jenel Lausa Unanimous Decision (30-27 x2, 29-28)
Marlon Vera Split Decision (29-28 x2, 28-29)
Dan Hooker Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
Geane Herrera Round 2 TKO (Punches)
Jonathan Meunier Round 1 TKO (Punches and Elbows)
Jon Tuck Round 1 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Daniel Kelly Split Decision (29-28 x2, 28-29)
Seo Hee Ham Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
Khalil Rountree Round 2 KO (Punch)
Yusuke Kasuya Round 1 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Kyle Noke Round 3 TKO (Punches)
Jake Matthews Round 3 TKO (Punches)
Derek Brunson Round 1 TKO (Punches)

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC FN 101: Whittaker vs. Brunson Draftkings Double Up Lineup:
Jake Matthews ($9,300)
Derek Brunson ($8,800)
Seo Hee Ham ($8,400)
Jenel Lausa ($8,300)
Jonathan Meunier ($8,100)
Daniel Kelly ($7,100)

Risk: 1u

UFC FN 101: Whittaker vs. Brunson Draftkings Tournament Lineup:
Jake Matthews ($9,300)
Jon Tuck ($9,000)
Omari Akhmedov ($8,600)
Jonathan Meunier ($8,100)
Tyson Pedro ($7,500)
Robert Whittaker ($7,400)

Risk: .2u

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC Fight Night 101: Whittaker vs. Brunson

Fight Pass Prelims:

Fight #1: Zhikui vs. Lausa (DEBUT)
Lausa -3.5 (+160) 2u

Fight #2: Guangyou vs. Vera
Guangyou/Vera Draw (+6000) .2u

Fight #3: Knight vs. Hooker
Hooker -3.5 (+150) 2u

Hedge(s):
Knight Submission (+775) .5u
Knight Submission (+995) .25u

Fox Sports 1 Prelims:

Fight #4: Nguyen vs. Herrera
Herrera KO/TKO (+420) 1u
Herrera Round 2 (+675) .5u
Herrera Round 3 (+800) .25u

Fight #5: Meunier vs. Walsh
Meunier (-125) 2.5u to win 2u
Meunier KO/TKO (+325) 1u
Meunier Round 1 (+350) .5u
Meunier Submission (+910) .5u

Hedge(s):
Walsh Decision (+268) 1u
Walsh Round 3 (+1725) .25u

Fight #6: Tuck vs. Brown
Tuck (-140) 2.8u to win 2u
Tuck -3.5 (+130) 1u
Tuck ITD (+222) 1u
Tuck Submission (+554) 1u

Fight #7: Camozzi vs. Kelly
Kelly (+205) 2u
Kelly Decision (+400) .5u
Kelly Round 3 (+2250) .2u

Hedge:
Camozzi Decision (+221) 1u

Main Card:

Fight #8: Ham vs. Taylor
Ham (-115) 2.3u to win 2u

Hedge:
Taylor ITD (+376) 1u

Fight #9: Rountree vs. Pedro (DEBUT)
Rountree/Pedro Under 1.5 Rounds (-105) 2.1u to win 2u
Pedro Submission (+330) .5u

Fight #10: Kasuya vs. Volkanovski (DEBUT)
Kasuya Submission (+420) 1u
Kasuya Round 3 (+1275) .25u
Kasuya/Volkanovski Draw (+7000) .1u

Fight #11: Noke vs. Akhmedov
Noke Scorecards = No Action (+185) 2u
Noke Decision (+316) 1u
Noke KO/TKO (+625) 1u
Noke Round 2 (+1000) 1u
Noke Round 3 (+1650) 1u
Noke/Akhmedov Draw (+7000) .2u

Hedge:
Akhmedov Round 1 (+300) 2u

Fight #12: Matthews vs. Holbrook
Fight Won’t Go Distance (-150) 3u to win 2u
Matthews ITD (+105) 2u
Matthews Round 2 (+450) 1u
Matthews Round 3 (+875) 1u
Matthews/Holbrook Draw (+7500) .2u

Hedge(s):
Holbrook ITD (+552) .5u
Holbrook Submission (+755) 1u
Holbrook Round 1 (+1050) .5u
Holbrook KO/TKO (+1585) .25u

Fight #13: Whittaker vs. Brunson
Brunson (-130) 5.2u to win 4u
Brunson (+100) 3u
Brunson KO/TKO (+247) 1u
Brunson Decision (+395) 1u
Brunson Round 1 (+450) 1u
Whittaker/Brunson Draw (+6500) .2u

Hedge(s):
Whittaker Decision (+650) 1.5u
Whittaker Round 3 (+1075) .75u
Whittaker Split/Majority Decision (+1500) .25u
Whittaker Round 4 (+1725) .25u
Whittaker Round 5 (+2575) .25u

Straight Parlays:
Kelly/Noke (+675) .5u

Prop Parlays:
Camozzi+Kelly Go Distance/Ham/Rountree KO (+726) .25u
Hooker Decision/Herrera Decision (+838) .25u
Taylor ITD/Matthews ITD (+956) .25u
Meunier KO/Brunson KO (+1082) .25u
Meunier Decision/Camozzi Decision (+1174) .25u
Volkanovski Decision/Akhmedov Decision (+1175) .5u
Ham Decision/Rountree Decision (+1176) .5u
Nguyen KO/Meunier ITD (+1264) .25u
Volkanovski Decision/Noke Decision (+1314) .25u
Lausa Decision/Camozzi Decision/Ham Decision (+1613) .25u
Matthews+Holbrook Won’t Start Round 2/Brunson Round 1 (+1638) .25u
Akhmedov Round 1/Whittaker Round 1 (+1700) .25u
Rountree Round 2/Whittaker KO (+1856) .25u
Taylor KO/Matthews KO (+1942) .25u
Hooker -3.5/Walsh Decision/Tuck -3.5 (+2016) .25u
Matthews Decision/Whittaker Decision (+2052) .25u
Holbrook Scorecards = No Action/Brunson Decision (+2098) .25u
Meunier Round 1/Brunson Round 1 (+2175) .25u
Noke Round 1/Brunson Round 1 (+4850) .25u
Noke Round 3/Matthews Round 3 (+14526) .1u

Full Card Props:
Over 7.5 Fights Go Distance (+257) 1.25u
Over 8.5 Fights Go Distance (+637) .5u
Over 9.5 Fights Go Distance (+1855) .25u

Multi-Event Parlays:
Matthews/Benavidez (+111) 1u

[JIBBBY]

Here are my plays for the first 4 fights.. Let's see how these play out to get the ball rolling!!!!


Fight #1 - (no hedge)

$220.00

$100.00

Pending

11/26/16 6:30pm UFC Fighting 2201 Yao Zhikui/Jenel Lausa Over 2½ -220*

$50.00

$90.50

Pending

11/26/16 6:30pm MMA Props Fighting 2211 Lausa wins by 3 round decision +181* vs Not Lausa by 3 round decision

Fight #2 -

$50.00

$225.00

Pending

11/26/16 7:00pm MMA Props Fighting 2131 Vera wins by submission +450* vs Any other result

Hedge

$50.00

$187.50

Pending

11/26/16 7:00pm MMA Props Fighting 2129 Guangyou wins by TKO/KO +375* vs Any other result

$100.00

$165.00

Pending

11/26/16 7:00pm MMA Props Fighting 2104 Fight won’t go 3 round distance +165* vs Guangyou / Vera goes 3 round distance

Fight #3 -

$350.00

$200.00

Pending

11/26/16 7:30pm UFC Fighting 2002 Dan Hooker -175* vs Jason Knight

Hedge

$100.00

$775.00

Pending

11/26/16 7:30pm MMA Props Fighting 2027 Knight wins by submission +775* vs Any other result

Fight #4 (no hedge)

$105.00

$100.00

Pending

11/26/16 8:00pm UFC Fighting 1902 Ben Nguyen -105* vs Geane Herrera

$50.00

$217.50

Pending

11/26/16 8:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1933 Nguyen wins by TKO/KO +435* vs Any other result

[Shagdogy]

Whittaker is young, durable, and at home. Brunson has power, yes, but his wrestling hasn't been incredible and he keeps his chin very high. I think this could be a coming out fight for Whittaker who should be able to get out of the first and then could pick Brunson apart in rds 2 and 3. I wont be big, but I'll be on Whittaker.

I like Nguyen over Herrera as well. Nguyen is much better on the feet and has very good scrambles. Herrera doesn't seem to have the offensive wrestling to impose his will. I will admit he is much stronger and there is a possibility he bullies Nguyen but I'm betting against it.

Small on Walsh over Meunier on experience alone. Walsh is game and has solid skills minus his TDD which shouldn't come into play. He'll make Meunier earn it.

I'm real puzzled by Rountree/Pedro. Rountree's TDD is awful and he has never fixed it. However, he's game and has power. I'm thinking under 1.5 but if Pedro has trouble getting the submission I could easily see it going over as he rides Rountree all over the cage.

Good luck everyone!

[JIBBBY]

Walsh fight I played like this Shag ^^ I'm just trying to win $150.00 with Walsh with this hedge play.. Had to take the hedge KO insurance though..

Fight #5 -

$200.00

$250.00

Pending

11/26/16 8:30pm UFC Fighting 1802 Richard Walsh +125* vs Jonathan Meunier

Hedge

$100.00

$190.00

Pending

11/26/16 8:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1829 Meunier wins by TKO/KO +190* vs Any other result

[Shagdogy]

I like this hedge. Watched grainy video of Meunier's RNC sub and the dude had zero defense. Can't see him subbing Walsh unless he hurts him badly first.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Anyone know why 5Dimes hasn't posted the -3.5 props yet?

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

Not a lot of plays on this card, taking shots with the dogs Whittaker and Noke

[TPowell]

Really like the hedge for Ham (-110) and Taylor ITD (+320). You could also take Taylor NOT by decision at -310 though. Think I may use that as a parlay piece

[JIBBBY]

Really like the hedge for Ham (-110) and Taylor ITD (+320). You could also take Taylor NOT by decision at -310 though. Think I may use that as a parlay piece

I'm on Ham by decision no hedge myself.. These tiny chicks should be hard to finish as always.. Taylor does have a bunch of KO's on her record though..

Not fading the Asian and not betting on black in this one.. Something I usually don't advise to do in the UFC but doing it anyway...



Seohee
Ham
vs
Danielle
Taylor
"Dynamite"

SOUTH KOREA
Country
USA

16-7-0
Record
7-2-0

0%
KO/TKO
43%

13%
SUB
14%

88%
DEC
43%

62 in
Height
60 in

115 lbs
Weight
115 lbs

62 in
Reach
60 in

35 in
Leg Reach
33 in

[Hugo de Naranja]

Big line movement on Brunson/Whittaker. Adding a few units on Brunson at (+100)

[JIBBBY]

Not a lot of plays on this card, taking shots with the dogs Whittaker and Noke

I agree locky that's why I'm hedging my ass off in this event.. Certainly more then I normally do..

Still gonna gonna battle this event and see what sticks..

I will say this though you can tell how most of the fighters are going win if they do, that's the good thing when hedging with props in that regard..

[TPowell]

On second thought, Maybe Ham is the play. You get even money on a fight where I can't see how she loses a decision and the OVER is so juiced it isn't even funny

[Hugo de Naranja]

I agree locky that's why I'm hedging my ass off in this event.. Certainly more then I normally do..

Still gonna gonna battle this event and see what sticks..

I will say this though you can tell how most of the fighters are going win if they do, that's the good thing when hedging with props in that regard..

Best of luck bud!

[Thrilla]

My leans:

Hooker
Vera
Lausa
Camozzi
Tuck
Meunier
Nguyen
Brunson
Mathhews
Noke
Volkanovski
Rountree
Hee Ham

[Thrilla]

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/KwU62F3cy6w" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

[rsynweap84]

Omg...fite nite...i got my moneez, my beers, my vodka, and all the sbr regular forumer's...it don't get no better!

ps: thankgod hugo sees a possible knight submission...was feelin stupid with this bet, i dunno, i think the kid has it together and possibility to pull it off.

[Thrilla]

I'm completely ill prepared for this card. This week I was sucked into soccer darts and college basketball betting.


Hugo? JIbbs? someone else talk to me. who has put in time and research into this card?

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

Big line movement on Brunson/Whittaker. Adding a few units on Brunson at (+100)

Wow you are right +105 at 5dimes right now and probably going higher, Whittaker betters can lock in profit now if they wanted to

[Hugo de Naranja]

I'm completely ill prepared for this card. This week I was sucked into soccer darts and college basketball betting.


Hugo? JIbbs? someone else talk to me. who has put in time and research into this card?

I posted all my picks and bets on the first page of the thread. I'm happy to offer my insight on any specific fights that you want to discuss.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Omg...fite nite...i got my moneez, my beers, my vodka, and all the sbr regular forumer's...it don't get no better!

ps: thankgod hugo sees a possible knight submission...was feelin stupid with this bet, i dunno, i think the kid has it together and possibility to pull it off.

It's his best path to victory imo

[Thrilla]

too late backing lausa

[Thrilla]

I posted all my picks and bets on the first page of the thread. I'm happy to offer my insight on any specific fights that you want to discuss.

roger that

[Hugo de Naranja]

Hopefully Lausa isn't gassed. Not sure how he didn't finish there

[TPowell]

Just couldn't pull the trigger on Lausa. Not enough tape and his ground game isn't great.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Lausa by wide decision is a perfect start to the night.

[GoBlue77]

My boy Conor is somewhere laughing at this BUM CARD tonight.

[JIBBBY]

That works for fight number 1 ... Let's get this going now!!!


Fight #1 - (no hedge)

$220.00

$100.00

Win

11/26/16 6:30pm UFC Fighting 2201 Yao Zhikui/Jenel Lausa Over 2½ -220*

$50.00

$90.50

Win

11/26/16 6:30pm MMA Props Fighting 2211 Lausa wins by 3 round decision +181* vs Not Lausa by 3 round decision

[TPowell]

Roundtree by TKO is up to +190. Seems pretty solid in a fight that should end early

[Hugo de Naranja]

No major lean on this one. Just a tiny sweat on the draw prop.

[Flea Hotel]

LIVE DOG and LOCK

I bombed on the last UFC I capped so here is some good fading material.

1. This card SUCKS!
2. Live dog, Knight ITD +506. 5Dimes and SportsBet. Worth 1/2 unit.
3. Bet the house, dog and/or girlfriend (might be the same for some), whatever you got on the main event NOT going to the judges. Brunson/Whittaker DOESN'T GO TO THE JUDGES (-300, or -278 at Will Hill). I cleaned up on NCAAF today so I'm putting it all on this, despite the price.

Knight ITD 0.5 UNIT (+506)
Brunson/Whittaker DOESN'T GO TO THE JUDGES (-300) 5 UNITS

BOL. I'm betting 0.01 units, or $1USD on all the underdogs on this card. Reminds me of a good Tachi Palace Fights card in Lamore.

[Sanity Check]

I always wonder about Guangyou Ning's cardio with him training out of Beijing which isn't known for having the healthiest air for athletes to breath.