UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Brunson (November 26th, 2016, Melbourne Australia)

Collapse
X
 
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts
  • JIBBBY
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 12-10-09
    • 83693

    #36
    I hedged alot of fights on this card.. I originally thought there could be some big money to be made but after watching vids and reading up on all fighters I ended up seeing most of the fights going one way or the other.. I still expect to make some good money with this event but nothing huge with all the hedge play... Playing this card a bit safe in other words..

    Locked loaded...

    I'll post my plays tomorrow before fight time.. Too tired to do it now...
    Comment
    • BIGDAY
      SBR Aristocracy
      • 02-17-10
      • 48245

      #37
      Originally posted by JIBBBY
      I hedged alot of fights on this card.. I originally thought there could be some big money to be made but after watching vids and reading up on all fighters I ended up seeing most of the fights going one way or the other.. I still expect to make some good money with this event but nothing huge with all the hedge play... Playing this card a bit safe in other words..

      Locked loaded...

      I'll post my plays tomorrow before fight time.. Too tired to do it now...

      Jibbbbbbbbbbbbbay!!!

      It's fight day!

      Stop talking about taking it easy and Pound the fawkin winners.
      Comment
      • Hugo de Naranja
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 04-14-16
        • 14140

        #38
        UFC FN 101: Whittaker vs. Brunson Picks:
        Jenel Lausa Unanimous Decision (30-27 x2, 29-28)
        Marlon Vera Split Decision (29-28 x2, 28-29)
        Dan Hooker Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
        Geane Herrera Round 2 TKO (Punches)
        Jonathan Meunier Round 1 TKO (Punches and Elbows)
        Jon Tuck Round 1 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
        Daniel Kelly Split Decision (29-28 x2, 28-29)
        Seo Hee Ham Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
        Khalil Rountree Round 2 KO (Punch)
        Yusuke Kasuya Round 1 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
        Kyle Noke Round 3 TKO (Punches)
        Jake Matthews Round 3 TKO (Punches)
        Derek Brunson Round 1 TKO (Punches)
        Comment
        • Hugo de Naranja
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 04-14-16
          • 14140

          #39
          UFC FN 101: Whittaker vs. Brunson Draftkings Double Up Lineup:
          Jake Matthews ($9,300)
          Derek Brunson ($8,800)
          Seo Hee Ham ($8,400)
          Jenel Lausa ($8,300)
          Jonathan Meunier ($8,100)
          Daniel Kelly ($7,100)

          Risk: 1u

          UFC FN 101: Whittaker vs. Brunson Draftkings Tournament Lineup:
          Jake Matthews ($9,300)
          Jon Tuck ($9,000)
          Omari Akhmedov ($8,600)
          Jonathan Meunier ($8,100)
          Tyson Pedro ($7,500)
          Robert Whittaker ($7,400)

          Risk: .2u
          Comment
          • Hugo de Naranja
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 04-14-16
            • 14140

            #40
            UFC Fight Night 101: Whittaker vs. Brunson

            Fight Pass Prelims:

            Fight #1: Zhikui vs. Lausa (DEBUT)
            Lausa -3.5 (+160) 2u

            Fight #2: Guangyou vs. Vera
            Guangyou/Vera Draw (+6000) .2u

            Fight #3: Knight vs. Hooker
            Hooker -3.5 (+150) 2u

            Hedge(s):
            Knight Submission (+775) .5u
            Knight Submission (+995) .25u

            Fox Sports 1 Prelims:

            Fight #4: Nguyen vs. Herrera
            Herrera KO/TKO (+420) 1u
            Herrera Round 2 (+675) .5u
            Herrera Round 3 (+800) .25u

            Fight #5: Meunier vs. Walsh
            Meunier (-125) 2.5u to win 2u
            Meunier KO/TKO (+325) 1u
            Meunier Round 1 (+350) .5u
            Meunier Submission (+910) .5u

            Hedge(s):
            Walsh Decision (+268) 1u
            Walsh Round 3 (+1725) .25u

            Fight #6: Tuck vs. Brown
            Tuck (-140) 2.8u to win 2u
            Tuck -3.5 (+130) 1u
            Tuck ITD (+222) 1u
            Tuck Submission (+554) 1u

            Fight #7: Camozzi vs. Kelly
            Kelly (+205) 2u
            Kelly Decision (+400) .5u
            Kelly Round 3 (+2250) .2u

            Hedge:
            Camozzi Decision (+221) 1u

            Main Card:

            Fight #8: Ham vs. Taylor
            Ham (-115) 2.3u to win 2u

            Hedge:
            Taylor ITD (+376) 1u

            Fight #9: Rountree vs. Pedro (DEBUT)
            Rountree/Pedro Under 1.5 Rounds (-105) 2.1u to win 2u
            Pedro Submission (+330) .5u

            Fight #10: Kasuya vs. Volkanovski (DEBUT)
            Kasuya Submission (+420) 1u
            Kasuya Round 3 (+1275) .25u
            Kasuya/Volkanovski Draw (+7000) .1u

            Fight #11: Noke vs. Akhmedov
            Noke Scorecards = No Action (+185) 2u
            Noke Decision (+316) 1u
            Noke KO/TKO (+625) 1u
            Noke Round 2 (+1000) 1u
            Noke Round 3 (+1650) 1u
            Noke/Akhmedov Draw (+7000) .2u

            Hedge:
            Akhmedov Round 1 (+300) 2u

            Fight #12: Matthews vs. Holbrook
            Fight Won’t Go Distance (-150) 3u to win 2u
            Matthews ITD (+105) 2u
            Matthews Round 2 (+450) 1u
            Matthews Round 3 (+875) 1u
            Matthews/Holbrook Draw (+7500) .2u

            Hedge(s):
            Holbrook ITD (+552) .5u
            Holbrook Submission (+755) 1u
            Holbrook Round 1 (+1050) .5u
            Holbrook KO/TKO (+1585) .25u

            Fight #13: Whittaker vs. Brunson
            Brunson (-130) 5.2u to win 4u
            Brunson (+100) 3u
            Brunson KO/TKO (+247) 1u
            Brunson Decision (+395) 1u
            Brunson Round 1 (+450) 1u
            Whittaker/Brunson Draw (+6500) .2u

            Hedge(s):
            Whittaker Decision (+650) 1.5u
            Whittaker Round 3 (+1075) .75u
            Whittaker Split/Majority Decision (+1500) .25u
            Whittaker Round 4 (+1725) .25u
            Whittaker Round 5 (+2575) .25u

            Straight Parlays:
            Kelly/Noke (+675) .5u

            Prop Parlays:
            Camozzi+Kelly Go Distance/Ham/Rountree KO (+726) .25u
            Hooker Decision/Herrera Decision (+838) .25u
            Taylor ITD/Matthews ITD (+956) .25u
            Meunier KO/Brunson KO (+1082) .25u
            Meunier Decision/Camozzi Decision (+1174) .25u
            Volkanovski Decision/Akhmedov Decision (+1175) .5u
            Ham Decision/Rountree Decision (+1176) .5u
            Nguyen KO/Meunier ITD (+1264) .25u
            Volkanovski Decision/Noke Decision (+1314) .25u
            Lausa Decision/Camozzi Decision/Ham Decision (+1613) .25u
            Matthews+Holbrook Won’t Start Round 2/Brunson Round 1 (+1638) .25u
            Akhmedov Round 1/Whittaker Round 1 (+1700) .25u
            Rountree Round 2/Whittaker KO (+1856) .25u
            Taylor KO/Matthews KO (+1942) .25u
            Hooker -3.5/Walsh Decision/Tuck -3.5 (+2016) .25u
            Matthews Decision/Whittaker Decision (+2052) .25u
            Holbrook Scorecards = No Action/Brunson Decision (+2098) .25u
            Meunier Round 1/Brunson Round 1 (+2175) .25u
            Noke Round 1/Brunson Round 1 (+4850) .25u
            Noke Round 3/Matthews Round 3 (+14526) .1u

            Full Card Props:
            Over 7.5 Fights Go Distance (+257) 1.25u
            Over 8.5 Fights Go Distance (+637) .5u
            Over 9.5 Fights Go Distance (+1855) .25u

            Multi-Event Parlays:
            Matthews/Benavidez (+111) 1u
            Last edited by Hugo de Naranja; 11-26-16, 06:00 PM.
            Comment
            • JIBBBY
              SBR Aristocracy
              • 12-10-09
              • 83693

              #41
              Here are my plays for the first 4 fights.. Let's see how these play out to get the ball rolling!!!!


              Fight #1 - (no hedge)


              $220.00 $100.00 Pending 11/26/16 6:30pm UFC Fighting 2201 Yao Zhikui/Jenel Lausa Over 2½ -220*
              $50.00 $90.50 Pending 11/26/16 6:30pm MMA Props Fighting 2211 Lausa wins by 3 round decision +181* vs Not Lausa by 3 round decision
              Fight #2 -

              $50.00 $225.00 Pending 11/26/16 7:00pm MMA Props Fighting 2131 Vera wins by submission +450* vs Any other result
              Hedge

              $50.00 $187.50 Pending 11/26/16 7:00pm MMA Props Fighting 2129 Guangyou wins by TKO/KO +375* vs Any other result
              $100.00 $165.00 Pending 11/26/16 7:00pm MMA Props Fighting 2104 Fight won’t go 3 round distance +165* vs Guangyou / Vera goes 3 round distance

              Fight #3 -

              $350.00 $200.00 Pending 11/26/16 7:30pm UFC Fighting 2002 Dan Hooker -175* vs Jason Knight
              Hedge

              $100.00 $775.00 Pending 11/26/16 7:30pm MMA Props Fighting 2027 Knight wins by submission +775* vs Any other result

              Fight #4 (no hedge)

              $105.00 $100.00 Pending 11/26/16 8:00pm UFC Fighting 1902 Ben Nguyen -105* vs Geane Herrera
              $50.00 $217.50 Pending 11/26/16 8:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1933 Nguyen wins by TKO/KO +435* vs Any other result
              Last edited by JIBBBY; 11-26-16, 02:06 PM.
              Comment
              • Shagdogy
                SBR MVP
                • 06-16-10
                • 3564

                #42
                Whittaker is young, durable, and at home. Brunson has power, yes, but his wrestling hasn't been incredible and he keeps his chin very high. I think this could be a coming out fight for Whittaker who should be able to get out of the first and then could pick Brunson apart in rds 2 and 3. I wont be big, but I'll be on Whittaker.

                I like Nguyen over Herrera as well. Nguyen is much better on the feet and has very good scrambles. Herrera doesn't seem to have the offensive wrestling to impose his will. I will admit he is much stronger and there is a possibility he bullies Nguyen but I'm betting against it.

                Small on Walsh over Meunier on experience alone. Walsh is game and has solid skills minus his TDD which shouldn't come into play. He'll make Meunier earn it.

                I'm real puzzled by Rountree/Pedro. Rountree's TDD is awful and he has never fixed it. However, he's game and has power. I'm thinking under 1.5 but if Pedro has trouble getting the submission I could easily see it going over as he rides Rountree all over the cage.

                Good luck everyone!
                Comment
                • JIBBBY
                  SBR Aristocracy
                  • 12-10-09
                  • 83693

                  #43
                  Walsh fight I played like this Shag ^^ I'm just trying to win $150.00 with Walsh with this hedge play.. Had to take the hedge KO insurance though..

                  Fight #5 -

                  $200.00 $250.00 Pending 11/26/16 8:30pm UFC Fighting 1802 Richard Walsh +125* vs Jonathan Meunier
                  Hedge

                  $100.00 $190.00 Pending 11/26/16 8:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1829 Meunier wins by TKO/KO +190* vs Any other result
                  Comment
                  • Shagdogy
                    SBR MVP
                    • 06-16-10
                    • 3564

                    #44
                    I like this hedge. Watched grainy video of Meunier's RNC sub and the dude had zero defense. Can't see him subbing Walsh unless he hurts him badly first.
                    Comment
                    • Hugo de Naranja
                      SBR Posting Legend
                      • 04-14-16
                      • 14140

                      #45
                      Anyone know why 5Dimes hasn't posted the -3.5 props yet?
                      Comment
                      • THE_LOCKSMITH
                        SBR Hall of Famer
                        • 08-25-08
                        • 7237

                        #46
                        Not a lot of plays on this card, taking shots with the dogs Whittaker and Noke
                        Comment
                        • TPowell
                          SBR Posting Legend
                          • 02-21-08
                          • 18842

                          #47
                          Really like the hedge for Ham (-110) and Taylor ITD (+320). You could also take Taylor NOT by decision at -310 though. Think I may use that as a parlay piece
                          Comment
                          • JIBBBY
                            SBR Aristocracy
                            • 12-10-09
                            • 83693

                            #48
                            Originally posted by TPowell
                            Really like the hedge for Ham (-110) and Taylor ITD (+320). You could also take Taylor NOT by decision at -310 though. Think I may use that as a parlay piece
                            I'm on Ham by decision no hedge myself.. These tiny chicks should be hard to finish as always.. Taylor does have a bunch of KO's on her record though..

                            Not fading the Asian and not betting on black in this one.. Something I usually don't advise to do in the UFC but doing it anyway...



                            Seohee
                            Ham
                            vs
                            Danielle
                            Taylor
                            "Dynamite"

                            SOUTH KOREA
                            Country
                            USA

                            16-7-0
                            Record
                            7-2-0

                            0%
                            KO/TKO
                            43%

                            13%
                            SUB
                            14%

                            88%
                            DEC
                            43%

                            62 in
                            Height
                            60 in

                            115 lbs
                            Weight
                            115 lbs

                            62 in
                            Reach
                            60 in

                            35 in
                            Leg Reach
                            33 in
                            Last edited by JIBBBY; 11-26-16, 05:50 PM.
                            Comment
                            • Hugo de Naranja
                              SBR Posting Legend
                              • 04-14-16
                              • 14140

                              #49
                              Big line movement on Brunson/Whittaker. Adding a few units on Brunson at (+100)
                              Comment
                              • JIBBBY
                                SBR Aristocracy
                                • 12-10-09
                                • 83693

                                #50
                                Originally posted by THE_LOCKSMITH
                                Not a lot of plays on this card, taking shots with the dogs Whittaker and Noke
                                I agree locky that's why I'm hedging my ass off in this event.. Certainly more then I normally do..

                                Still gonna gonna battle this event and see what sticks..

                                I will say this though you can tell how most of the fighters are going win if they do, that's the good thing when hedging with props in that regard..
                                Comment
                                • TPowell
                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                  • 02-21-08
                                  • 18842

                                  #51
                                  On second thought, Maybe Ham is the play. You get even money on a fight where I can't see how she loses a decision and the OVER is so juiced it isn't even funny
                                  Comment
                                  • Hugo de Naranja
                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                    • 04-14-16
                                    • 14140

                                    #52
                                    Originally posted by JIBBBY
                                    I agree locky that's why I'm hedging my ass off in this event.. Certainly more then I normally do..

                                    Still gonna gonna battle this event and see what sticks..

                                    I will say this though you can tell how most of the fighters are going win if they do, that's the good thing when hedging with props in that regard..
                                    Best of luck bud!
                                    Comment
                                    • Thrilla
                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                      • 03-10-15
                                      • 13809

                                      #53
                                      My leans:

                                      Hooker
                                      Vera
                                      Lausa
                                      Camozzi
                                      Tuck
                                      Meunier
                                      Nguyen
                                      Brunson
                                      Mathhews
                                      Noke
                                      Volkanovski
                                      Rountree
                                      Hee Ham
                                      Comment
                                      • Thrilla
                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                        • 03-10-15
                                        • 13809

                                        #54
                                        <iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/KwU62F3cy6w" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
                                        Comment
                                        • rsynweap84
                                          Restricted User
                                          • 06-24-16
                                          • 622

                                          #55
                                          Omg...fite nite...i got my moneez, my beers, my vodka, and all the sbr regular forumer's...it don't get no better!

                                          ps: thankgod hugo sees a possible knight submission...was feelin stupid with this bet, i dunno, i think the kid has it together and possibility to pull it off.
                                          Last edited by rsynweap84; 11-26-16, 06:19 PM.
                                          Comment
                                          • Thrilla
                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                            • 03-10-15
                                            • 13809

                                            #56
                                            I'm completely ill prepared for this card. This week I was sucked into soccer darts and college basketball betting.


                                            Hugo? JIbbs? someone else talk to me. who has put in time and research into this card?
                                            Comment
                                            • THE_LOCKSMITH
                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                              • 08-25-08
                                              • 7237

                                              #57
                                              Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja
                                              Big line movement on Brunson/Whittaker. Adding a few units on Brunson at (+100)
                                              Wow you are right +105 at 5dimes right now and probably going higher, Whittaker betters can lock in profit now if they wanted to
                                              Comment
                                              • Hugo de Naranja
                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                • 04-14-16
                                                • 14140

                                                #58
                                                Originally posted by Thrilla
                                                I'm completely ill prepared for this card. This week I was sucked into soccer darts and college basketball betting.


                                                Hugo? JIbbs? someone else talk to me. who has put in time and research into this card?
                                                I posted all my picks and bets on the first page of the thread. I'm happy to offer my insight on any specific fights that you want to discuss.
                                                Comment
                                                • Hugo de Naranja
                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                  • 04-14-16
                                                  • 14140

                                                  #59
                                                  Originally posted by rsynweap84
                                                  Omg...fite nite...i got my moneez, my beers, my vodka, and all the sbr regular forumer's...it don't get no better!

                                                  ps: thankgod hugo sees a possible knight submission...was feelin stupid with this bet, i dunno, i think the kid has it together and possibility to pull it off.
                                                  It's his best path to victory imo
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Thrilla
                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                    • 03-10-15
                                                    • 13809

                                                    #60
                                                    too late backing lausa
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Thrilla
                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                      • 03-10-15
                                                      • 13809

                                                      #61
                                                      Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja
                                                      I posted all my picks and bets on the first page of the thread. I'm happy to offer my insight on any specific fights that you want to discuss.
                                                      roger that
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Hugo de Naranja
                                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                                        • 04-14-16
                                                        • 14140

                                                        #62
                                                        Hopefully Lausa isn't gassed. Not sure how he didn't finish there
                                                        Comment
                                                        • TPowell
                                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                                          • 02-21-08
                                                          • 18842

                                                          #63
                                                          Just couldn't pull the trigger on Lausa. Not enough tape and his ground game isn't great.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Hugo de Naranja
                                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                                            • 04-14-16
                                                            • 14140

                                                            #64
                                                            Lausa by wide decision is a perfect start to the night.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • GoBlue77
                                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                                              • 03-20-11
                                                              • 9166

                                                              #65
                                                              My boy Conor is somewhere laughing at this BUM CARD tonight.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • JIBBBY
                                                                SBR Aristocracy
                                                                • 12-10-09
                                                                • 83693

                                                                #66
                                                                That works for fight number 1 ... Let's get this going now!!!


                                                                Fight #1 - (no hedge)


                                                                $220.00 $100.00 Win 11/26/16 6:30pm UFC Fighting 2201 Yao Zhikui/Jenel Lausa Over 2½ -220*
                                                                $50.00 $90.50 Win 11/26/16 6:30pm MMA Props Fighting 2211 Lausa wins by 3 round decision +181* vs Not Lausa by 3 round decision
                                                                Comment
                                                                • TPowell
                                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                                  • 02-21-08
                                                                  • 18842

                                                                  #67
                                                                  Roundtree by TKO is up to +190. Seems pretty solid in a fight that should end early
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Hugo de Naranja
                                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                                    • 04-14-16
                                                                    • 14140

                                                                    #68
                                                                    No major lean on this one. Just a tiny sweat on the draw prop.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Flea Hotel
                                                                      Restricted User
                                                                      • 08-31-16
                                                                      • 1732

                                                                      #69
                                                                      LIVE DOG and LOCK

                                                                      I bombed on the last UFC I capped so here is some good fading material.

                                                                      1. This card SUCKS!
                                                                      2. Live dog, Knight ITD +506. 5Dimes and SportsBet. Worth 1/2 unit.
                                                                      3. Bet the house, dog and/or girlfriend (might be the same for some), whatever you got on the main event NOT going to the judges. Brunson/Whittaker DOESN'T GO TO THE JUDGES (-300, or -278 at Will Hill). I cleaned up on NCAAF today so I'm putting it all on this, despite the price.

                                                                      Knight ITD 0.5 UNIT (+506)
                                                                      Brunson/Whittaker DOESN'T GO TO THE JUDGES (-300) 5 UNITS

                                                                      BOL. I'm betting 0.01 units, or $1USD on all the underdogs on this card. Reminds me of a good Tachi Palace Fights card in Lamore.
                                                                      Last edited by Flea Hotel; 11-26-16, 07:17 PM. Reason: got the line wrong on my live dog
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • Sanity Check
                                                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                                                        • 03-30-13
                                                                        • 10962

                                                                        #70
                                                                        I always wonder about Guangyou Ning's cardio with him training out of Beijing which isn't known for having the healthiest air for athletes to breath.
                                                                        Comment
                                                                        SBR Contests
                                                                        Collapse
                                                                        Top-Rated US Sportsbooks
                                                                        Collapse
                                                                        Working...