UFC Fight Night: Caceres vs. Rodriguez (August 06, 2016)

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  • JIBBBY
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 12-10-09
    • 83693

    #106
    Originally posted by GoBlue77
    can't disagree with that strategy however you forgot to include the white boy in front of home crowd factor. never go against it my man
    At high altitude where the air is thin as well which might also favor home town white power..

    That's why I didn't load up.. Gotta stick to my theories though... Over the years these theories of mine have served me right..

    Got a benny down on Steele as he's a tough brother and should represent and make this a competitive fight at worse.....
    Comment
    • Hugo de Naranja
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 04-14-16
      • 14140

      #107
      Originally posted by JIBBBY
      At high altitude where the air is thin as well which might also favor home town white power..

      That's why I didn't load up.. Gotta stick to my theories though... Over the years these theories of mine have served me right..

      Got a benny down on Steele as he's a tough brother and should represent and make this a competitive fight at worse.....
      I feel the same way. Some value on Steele but I'm not going huge here.
      Comment
      • Hugo de Naranja
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 04-14-16
        • 14140

        #108
        UFC FN Salt Lake City Picks:
        Justin Ledet Round 2 Submission
        Cub Swanson Unanimous Decision
        Teruto Ishihara Rd 1 TKO
        David Teymur Rd 2 TKO
        Viktor Pesta Unanimous Decision
        Dominique Steele Split Decision
        Maryna Moroz Unanimous Decision
        Trevor Smith Unanimous Decision
        Zak Cummings Rd 2 TKO
        Chris Camozzi Unanimous Decision
        Dennis Bermudez Unanimous Decision *My pick for FOTN
        Yair Rodriguez Round 4 Submission
        Last edited by Hugo de Naranja; 08-05-16, 07:19 PM.
        Comment
        • Ty$
          SBR MVP
          • 03-20-16
          • 1241

          #109
          Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja
          UFC FN Salt Lake City Picks:
          Justin Ledet Round 2 Submission
          Cub Swanson Unanimous Decision
          Teruto Ishihara Rd 1 TKO
          David Teymur Rd 2 TKO
          Viktor Pesta Unanimous Decision
          Dominique Steele Split Decision
          Maryna Moroz Unanimous Decision
          Trevor Smith Unanimous Decision
          Zak Cummings Rd 2 TKO
          Chris Camozzi Unanimous Decision
          Dennis Bermudez Unanimous Decision
          Yair Rodriguez Round 4 Submission
          I really think Moroz gets the finish
          Comment
          • Hugo de Naranja
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 04-14-16
            • 14140

            #110
            UFC FN Salt Lake City Plays:

            Fight #1: Sherman vs. Ledet
            No Play

            Fight #2: Swanson vs. Kawajiri
            Kawajiri (+310) 1u
            Kawajiri (+325) .5u
            Kawajiri Submission (+1390) .25u

            Hedge:
            Swanson Round 3 (+925) .5u

            Fight #3: Ishihara vs. Gutierrez
            Does Not Go Distance (-185) 1.85u to win 1u
            Ishihara (-185) 1.85u to win 1u
            Ishihara ITD (-105) 1.05u to win 1u
            Ishihara Round 1 (+225) .25u

            Hedge(s):
            Gutierrez KO/TKO (+625) .75u
            Gutierrez Round 3 (+2100) .25u

            Fight #4: Teymur vs. Novelli
            Teymur (-105) 4.2u to win 4u
            Teymur -3.5 (+165) 1u
            Teymur ITD (+299) 1u
            Teymur KO/TKO (+385) .5u

            Fight #5: Pesta vs. Tybura
            No Play

            Fight #6: McGee vs. Steele
            Steele (+185) 1u

            Fight #7: Moroz vs. Taylor
            Taylor KO/TKO (+621) 1u

            Fight #8: Smith vs. Gigliotti
            Smith (+120) 2u
            Smith Decision (+470) .5u
            Smith Round 3 (+1200) .25u

            Fight #9: Ponzinibbio vs. Cummings
            Cummings (+155) 2u
            Cummings Scorecards = NA (+219) 1u
            Cummings ITD (+443) .5u
            Cummings KO/TKO (+850) .5u

            Hedge:
            Ponzinibbio Submission (+1400) .5u

            Fight #10: Leites vs. Camozzi
            Fight Goes Distance (-170) 3.4u to win 2u
            Camozzi Decision (+240) 1u

            Hedge(s):
            Leites Submission (+365) 1u
            Camozzi Round 3 (+1925) .25u

            Fight #11: Bermudez vs. Jason
            Jason Scorecards = No Action (+151) 2u
            Jason (+200) 1u
            Jason Submission (+535) .5u
            Jason Round 1 (+550) .5u

            Hedge(s):
            Fight Goes to Decision (+110) 1.5u
            Bermudez Round 3 (+1025) .5u
            LOOK TO LIVE BET BERMUDEZ After Rd 1

            Fight #12: Rodriguez vs. Caceres
            Caceres (+250) 2u

            Hedge:
            Rodriguez Submission (+420) .75u
            Last edited by Hugo de Naranja; 08-05-16, 10:06 PM.
            Comment
            • Hugo de Naranja
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 04-14-16
              • 14140

              #111
              Originally posted by Ty$
              I really think Moroz gets the finish
              That's a definite possibility but I think Taylor is actually the better value at these odds.
              Comment
              • Hugo de Naranja
                SBR Posting Legend
                • 04-14-16
                • 14140

                #112
                UFC FN Salt Lake City Draftkings Lineup:
                Teruto Ishihara ($11,500)
                Zak Cummings ($10,000)
                Chase Sherman ($9,700)
                David Teymur ($9,200)
                Rony Jason ($9,000)
                Last edited by Hugo de Naranja; 08-05-16, 06:44 PM.
                Comment
                • Ty$
                  SBR MVP
                  • 03-20-16
                  • 1241

                  #113
                  Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja
                  That's a definite possibility but I think Taylor is actually the better value at these odds.
                  Not when she's never fought anyone like Moroz. I don't think she sees the third. Short notice regional fighters have been getting stopped. Yahya /// Reis
                  Comment
                  • Hugo de Naranja
                    SBR Posting Legend
                    • 04-14-16
                    • 14140

                    #114
                    Originally posted by Ty$
                    Not when she's never fought anyone like Moroz. I don't think she sees the third. Short notice regional fighters have been getting stopped. Yahya /// Reis
                    Hey you know me, I ALWAYS bet against debuting fighters. Breaking from the pattern for a small bet this time.
                    Comment
                    • Ty$
                      SBR MVP
                      • 03-20-16
                      • 1241

                      #115
                      Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja
                      Hey you know me, I ALWAYS bet against debuting fighters. Breaking from the pattern for a small bet this time.
                      Hey it could work with the ladies. Those bitches been hittin!
                      Comment
                      • Demonata
                        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                        • 07-12-11
                        • 25829

                        #116
                        That midget woman gonna get destroyed
                        Comment
                        • Ty$
                          SBR MVP
                          • 03-20-16
                          • 1241

                          #117
                          Did you guys know Ben Saunders got cut? He's fighting Volkmann in MN Sept 9
                          Comment
                          • Rich Benjamins
                            SBR Wise Guy
                            • 12-15-15
                            • 831

                            #118
                            Originally posted by Ty$
                            Did you guys know Ben Saunders got cut? He's fighting Volkmann in MN Sept 9
                            I didn't know, but it makes sense. He's not a UFC caliber fighter, never was. Surprised he got moved up in the first place.
                            Comment
                            • HurlSweatPants
                              SBR Wise Guy
                              • 07-28-15
                              • 951

                              #119
                              GL gents, need to get back on the winning track for this one.
                              Comment
                              • HurlSweatPants
                                SBR Wise Guy
                                • 07-28-15
                                • 951

                                #120
                                Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja
                                UFC FN Salt Lake City Picks:
                                Justin Ledet Round 2 Submission
                                Cub Swanson Unanimous Decision
                                Teruto Ishihara Rd 1 TKO
                                David Teymur Rd 2 TKO
                                Viktor Pesta Unanimous Decision
                                Dominique Steele Split Decision
                                Maryna Moroz Unanimous Decision
                                Trevor Smith Unanimous Decision
                                Zak Cummings Rd 2 TKO
                                Chris Camozzi Unanimous Decision
                                Dennis Bermudez Unanimous Decision *My pick for FOTN
                                Yair Rodriguez Round 4 Submission

                                Jumped on the Cummings KO, wanted to take him straight but the value has been depleted at this point. Still might go small while I can get him at +105.

                                Looking at Steele small also, I know Court is a tough SOB but I was really impressed with Steele last fight and felt like he got robbed. Worth the shot for +190 and a live fighter. Also like Teymur a lot but I am not sure I can lay -160.
                                Comment
                                • Hugo de Naranja
                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                  • 04-14-16
                                  • 14140

                                  #121
                                  Originally posted by HurlSweatPants
                                  Jumped on the Cummings KO, wanted to take him straight but the value has been depleted at this point. Still might go small while I can get him at +105.

                                  Looking at Steele small also, I know Court is a tough SOB but I was really impressed with Steele last fight and felt like he got robbed. Worth the shot for +190 and a live fighter. Also like Teymur a lot but I am not sure I can lay -160.
                                  Love Teymur at (-105) but obviously less value at current odds. Maybe Teymur -3.5 (+165). I think he gets the finish or wins a wide decision 50+% of the time.
                                  Comment
                                  • BELM0NT
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 05-19-15
                                    • 1132

                                    #122
                                    Caceres / under 2.5
                                    Bermudez
                                    Camozzi
                                    Cummings
                                    Smith / over 1.5
                                    Moroz / over 2.5
                                    Steele
                                    Pesta
                                    Teymur
                                    Ishihara / under 1.5
                                    Kawajiri
                                    Sherman / over 1.5

                                    Good Luck everyone
                                    Comment
                                    • Snowball
                                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                      • 11-15-09
                                      • 30047

                                      #123
                                      rodriguez
                                      camozzi
                                      ponzinibbio
                                      gigliotti
                                      moroz
                                      steele
                                      teymur

                                      Comment
                                      • JIBBBY
                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                        • 12-10-09
                                        • 83693

                                        #124
                                        This is the first fight.

                                        I'm on the under 1.5 at -110 as both these guys are basically 1 round fighters... That means neither have really fought past the 1st round in their fights... Check the records for yourself if you don't believe me..

                                        Chase Sherman KO prop at +177 was tempting but I passed on it as I think either of these fighters can win early on...

                                        UFC Fight Pass Early Prelims



                                        Chase
                                        Sherman
                                        "The Vanilla Gorilla"
                                        vs
                                        Justin
                                        Ledet
                                        "El Blanco"

                                        USA
                                        Country
                                        USA

                                        9-1-0
                                        Record
                                        6-0-0

                                        100%
                                        KO/TKO
                                        33%

                                        0%
                                        SUB
                                        67%

                                        0%
                                        DEC
                                        0%

                                        76 in
                                        Height
                                        76 in

                                        252 lbs
                                        Weight
                                        203 lbs

                                        78 in
                                        Reach
                                        80 in

                                        43 in
                                        Leg Reach
                                        43 in
                                        Comment
                                        • Thrilla
                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                          • 03-10-15
                                          • 13809

                                          #125
                                          Originally posted by JIBBBY
                                          This is the first fight.

                                          I'm on the under 1.5 at -110 as both these guys are basically 1 round fighters... That means neither have really fought past the 1st round in their fights... Check the records for yourself if you don't believe me..

                                          Chase Sherman KO prop at +177 was tempting but I passed on it as I think either of these fighters can win early on...

                                          Underish record. That's because they fought cans until now. For both it will be the toughest opponent to date. From what little footage I saw those cans (Amateurs) exposed themself very easy to get finished. Ask myself to what degree they have debutant jitters aswell. + Have the impression both fighters are not very aggressive starters.
                                          Last edited by Thrilla; 08-06-16, 01:33 PM.
                                          Comment
                                          • HurlSweatPants
                                            SBR Wise Guy
                                            • 07-28-15
                                            • 951

                                            #126
                                            On Ledet by KO. Big heavyweights, it could be over quick. Hope the TX boy shows out.
                                            Comment
                                            • HurlSweatPants
                                              SBR Wise Guy
                                              • 07-28-15
                                              • 951

                                              #127
                                              For those who follow L/M, Teymur has dropped since this morning and is now at -125, and McGee has dropped all the way to -140 from -210 earlier.
                                              Comment
                                              • Hugo de Naranja
                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                • 04-14-16
                                                • 14140

                                                #128
                                                Originally posted by HurlSweatPants
                                                For those who follow L/M, Teymur has dropped since this morning and is now at -125, and McGee has dropped all the way to -140 from -210 earlier.
                                                Interesting. I wonder why there has been so much steam on Steele. Did you end up betting Teymur?
                                                Comment
                                                • HurlSweatPants
                                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                                  • 07-28-15
                                                  • 951

                                                  #129
                                                  Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja
                                                  Interesting. I wonder why there has been so much steam on Steele. Did you end up betting Teymur?
                                                  Not yet, waiting to see where the line goes from here, I am looking at other plays at the moment.

                                                  If I can get it at -115 I might make a small play.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Mxs1332
                                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                                    • 03-08-16
                                                    • 661

                                                    #130
                                                    Small little 3 legged parlay for tonight's action.

                                                    1 unit to win 2.32
                                                    3 Team Parlay
                                                    Pending 8/6/16 11:59pm UFC Fighting 1102 Dennis Bermudez -245* vs Rony Jason
                                                    Pending 8/6/16 9:30pm UFC Fighting 1602 Court McGee -155* vs Dominique Steele
                                                    Pending 8/6/16 8:00pm UFC Fighting 1901 Teruto Ishihara -230* vs Horacio Gutierrez
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Mxs1332
                                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                                      • 03-08-16
                                                      • 661

                                                      #131
                                                      Also for what its worth:
                                                      Some handicapping MMA staff picks, free of course.
                                                      UFC Fight Night 92
                                                      UFN 92 G. Killian J. Lynch B. Taschuk B. Hemminger N. Kalikas J. Primetown B. Wharton R. Doxtater
                                                      Fight #1 Sherman Sherman Sherman Ledet Ledet Sherman Ledet
                                                      Fight #2 Kawajiri Swanson Kawajiri Swanson Swanson Swanson Swanson Swanson
                                                      Fight #3 Ishihara Ishihara Ishihara Gutierrez Ishihara Ishihara Ishihara Ishihara
                                                      Fight #4 Teymur Novelli Novelli Teymur Teymur Teymur Teymur Novelli
                                                      Fight #5 Tybura Pesta Pesta Tybura Pesta Tybura Tybura Pesta
                                                      Fight #6 McGee McGee McGee McGee McGee McGee McGee McGee
                                                      Fight #7 Moroz Moroz Taylor Moroz Moroz Moroz Moroz Moroz
                                                      Fight #8 Smith Gigliotti Gigliotti Gigliotti Gigliotti Gigliotti Smith Smith
                                                      Fight #9 Ponzinibbio Ponz. Cummings Ponz. Cummings Ponz. Ponz. Ponz.
                                                      Fight #10 Leites Camozzi Leites Leites Leites Leites Camozzi Leites
                                                      Fight #11 Bermudez Bermudez Bermudez Bermudez Bermudez Bermudez Bermudez Bermudez
                                                      Fight #12 Rodriguez Rodriguez Rodriguez Rodriguez Rodriguez Rodriguez Rodriguez Rodriguez
                                                      Last Event 8-2 6-4 8-2 4-6 6-4 6-4 6-4 5-5
                                                      2016 Record 164-102 149-116 150-115 160-105 171-94 166-99 151-114 162-103
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Snowball
                                                        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                        • 11-15-09
                                                        • 30047

                                                        #132
                                                        well there you go.
                                                        they are all on McGee.

                                                        we know better.

                                                        Comment
                                                        • Mxs1332
                                                          SBR Wise Guy
                                                          • 03-08-16
                                                          • 661

                                                          #133
                                                          Originally posted by Ty$
                                                          Did you guys know Ben Saunders got cut? He's fighting Volkmann in MN Sept 9
                                                          No way!! I loved Ben Saunders. He was a cool guy and enjoyed him on the Fight Companion podcasts
                                                          Comment
                                                          • JIBBBY
                                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                                            • 12-10-09
                                                            • 83693

                                                            #134
                                                            Originally posted by Thrilla
                                                            Underish record. That's because they fought cans until now. For both it will be the toughest opponent to date. From what little footage I saw those cans (Amateurs) exposed themself very easy to get finished. Ask myself to what degree they have debutant jitters aswell. + Have the impression both fighters are not very aggressive starters.
                                                            Cans they did fight, but when you are use to finishing fights in the 1st round and that's all you know your mentality doesn't change.. Both these fighter share that same mentality so chances are someone gets caught and dropped early on, maybe even a sub win for Ledet...

                                                            The under 1.5 isn't a lock but I like the chances at almost even odds.. I feel more comfortable playing that then trying to pick a fighter to win..
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Thrilla
                                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                                              • 03-10-15
                                                              • 13809

                                                              #135
                                                              Originally posted by JIBBBY
                                                              Cans they did fight, but when you are use to finishing fights in the 1st round and that's all you know your mentality doesn't change.. Both these fighter share that same mentality so chances are someone gets caught and dropped early on, maybe even a sub win for Ledet...

                                                              The under 1.5 isn't a lock but I like the chances at almost even odds.. I feel more comfortable playing that then trying to pick a fighter to win..
                                                              Yeah difficult to pick a winner. Hope there is livebetting for this early prelim. Sherman is the bigger guy. More chance he might gas quicker thus a live bet late in the fight on Ledet maybe?
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Hugo de Naranja
                                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                                • 04-14-16
                                                                • 14140

                                                                #136
                                                                Originally posted by Thrilla
                                                                Yeah difficult to pick a winner. Hope there is livebetting for this early prelim. Sherman is the bigger guy. More chance he might gas quicker thus a live bet late in the fight on Ledet maybe?
                                                                I don't think there is live betting for the FP Prelims.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • JIBBBY
                                                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                                                  • 12-10-09
                                                                  • 83693

                                                                  #137
                                                                  Here we go!!! Let's end this one in a hurry...
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Mxs1332
                                                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                                                    • 03-08-16
                                                                    • 661

                                                                    #138
                                                                    Digging the walkout music by Sherman

                                                                    LEGGG GO!
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • spurginobili
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 05-09-09
                                                                      • 3065

                                                                      #139
                                                                      On the under here..GL folks
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • Thrilla
                                                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                                                        • 03-10-15
                                                                        • 13809

                                                                        #140
                                                                        Nice nice nice nice fight!
                                                                        Comment
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