UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2 (June 04, 2016 )

[JIBBBY]

so to simplify what youre saying bet on luke rockhold

round 1 +110 $100 to win $110
round 2 +280 $100 to win $280
round 3 +650 $100 to win $650
round 4 +1275 $50 to win $637.5


youre putting $350 total so basically he would have to win round 3 or 4 and youd be taking a loss round 1 or 2 dont really see the logic behind that?? even if you put less on round 4 youd still might as well just bet round 2 and 3 and hope he wins round 3 if to win $450 profit if he wins round 2 you win $80 still those 2 rounds are the most likely imo, watch the last fight , bisping has tricky movement and he does have a good chin i see him getting out of the first

I honestly don't know how I'm going to bet this fight yet fireKill? I'm taking in ideas posted off this thread though.. I just posted up round props for ideas because of the plus odds presented....

I have no bets placed on this fight.. I may wait til weigh ins and parlay up ITD prop with something else very solid and that's it.. Maybe play rounds 2 and 4 only as well for small.. I'm not happy about parlay'ing a -440 prop though.. However, I am very confident this prop will land..

1009 Rockhold wins inside distance

-440

In all honestly it's really hard for me to bet a fight when the odds are so one sided and when you really like the favorite.. I'll figure out how to bet this though before fight time.. Throwing darts at round bets is not something I do often either unless it's a first round finish by a killer..

[JIBBBY]

After going over all the props again. I'm thinking the SUBMISSION prop has the best value..

Luke could knock out Bisping standing, kick his head off or pound him out from full mount but I think the submission is more likely to happen just like in their first fight..

Count me in for a benny, just placed it now.. Luke Rockholds wrestling and submission game is where he will dominate Bisping.. I'll still parlay the ITD prop as well though just in case the KO happens.. That will offset this a bit as a safety net...

$100.00

$161.00

Pending

6/4/16 11:59pm MMA Props Fighting 1039 Rockhold wins by submission +161* vs Any other result

[firekillex]

i havent put my bets in yet but so far my thoughts rockhold is winning this fight and he most likely finishing it, i think that big knee bisping took from anderson not to long ago could effect him a bit, plus that eye still worries me especially with rockholds kicks....

im leaning towards doing something like $440 on rockhold ITD to win $100 then maybe throw something small on rockhold round 3 finish i got a feeling itll end 2nd or 3rd but the 3rd value is best so maybe put $25 on that


probably do 2 other bets and a small 4-5 fight parlay after that to

[JIBBBY]

I put a small hedge on Cruz KO/TKO at (+405) because I agree that this could happen but Cruz UD definitely the most likely.

If you think DOM can actually finish Faber in this fight then the ITD prop is the safer hedge play.. DOM is well rounded enough to get the KO or SUB conceivably.. I'm on DOM by Unanimous Dec too but I won't rule out a small hedge with the ITD prop as well..

1109 Cruz wins inside distance

+279

[firekillex]

cruz is one of my favourite fighters but hes not finishing faber , line would have to be +500 or more for me to put anything on that bet, faber is one of the toughest guys ive watched fight dude can take a ridiculous amount of punishment and i dont see cruz subbing him , hell definitely take him down but i dont see him doing much he usually just shoots doubles when somebody rushes in then lets them back up its more for the scorecards

[Vaughany]

Come on V money, throw a dog a bone.. Tap into your crystal ball powers and give us simpletons a few good picks for value... Don't be stingy..

Rockhold TKO/KO brah. Not difficult!

Got Faber Decision @ +1000 as well, not +750.

[JIBBBY]

Rockhold TKO/KO brah. Not difficult!

Got Faber Decision @ +1000 as well, not +750.

Crystal ball fail brah...

Rockhold by Submission, Cruz Unanimous.. Cash it!!!!

[DeathAdder]

Stop using copyrighted photos.

[firekillex]

jibby gonna get sued for 20 betpoints

[JIBBBY]

Stop using copyrighted photos.

I don't know what is copywrited or not and I don't care.. Sue me..

Are you the copywrite police?

[Hugo de Naranja]

Currently on 5Dimes:
Guida ML (+235)
Guida wins by 3 round decision (+200)
Lol

[JIBBBY]

Currently on 5Dimes:
Guida ML (+235)
Guida wins by 3 round decision (+200)
Lol

Yeah those odds are screwed up, 5dimes does that often.. LOL..

Already all in on the undefeated Ortega.. May still take Ortega by submission as well when that prop comes out..

$226.00

$200.00

Pending

6/4/16 9:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1609 Ortega wins inside distance -113* vs Not Ortega inside distance

I must admit if Guida is to win this fight it will be by decision, via the lay and pray for 3 rounds.. I'm not sure I even want to hedge that though.. I probably should take Guida straight as a hedge and not get greedy at those +230 odds.. If the best Guida shows up I guess that could happen..

I think Guida gets choked out.. Guida's really looked like crap in recent fights..

If you look closely at this gif below Guida doesn't even fight the hands.. He quit and was looking for an out and just held on long enough to appear respectable before tapping.

You can tell alot about fighters when they do little things like that in fights.. Pay attention to the little details people..

[richie360]

Really thinking of betting the under round props on the majority of these fights.

[Thrilla]

[Beelzebubzy]

when bisping wins will he be the GOAT?

[UncleChael]

when bisping wins will he be the GOAT?

What do you mean 'when'?

[CaptChaos145]

That's the problem Capt, I'm not very confident Bisping can survive that 1st round.. Luke really might walk right thru him as crazy as that sounds.. I'm still pondering on how I want to bet this fight?????

On UFC Tonight Rockhold said something about having a bad knee and he doesn't need kicks to beat Bisping. He may not kick much. Look that up. This bodes well for Bisping to last a little longer.

[firekillex]

On UFC Tonight Rockhold said something about having a bad knee and he doesn't need kicks to beat Bisping. He may not kick much. Look that up. This bodes well for Bisping to last a little longer.

It was at the end of the press conference rockhold said something about a knee injury then said he's been straight boxing all camp long. Could be playing mind games but I think this bodes well for my round 3 prediction

[JIBBBY]

Really thinking of betting the under round props on the majority of these fights.

I agree richie.. I have alot of ITD fighter props pending.. A couple unders as well..

[JIBBBY]

On UFC Tonight Rockhold said something about having a bad knee and he doesn't need kicks to beat Bisping. He may not kick much. Look that up. This bodes well for Bisping to last a little longer.

Adrenaline will be flowing he won't even feel the knee. Bisping gets slaughtered.. He was walking and bouncing around just fine when I last saw him interviewed.. No knee braces either...

I'm not buying into this.. Even on one leg I think Luke smashes Bisping.

[firekillex]

i think rockhold is just putting it out there so people dont get mad if he doesnt finish him in the first
realistically its irrelevant luke will put a beatdown on him, bisping will land a few small shots and have some movement because hell be fresh from the smaller camp but in the end rockhold will put it on him, i see him dropping him with a body kick them finishing him by tko on the ground round 2-3


thinking about putting something on beniel dariush as well, i see him outclassing james vick, hopefully land some leg kicks them take him down and dominate , james vick is super tall for the division so hell be easy to takedown as long as he doesnt pick him apart with jabs all 3 rounds i see dariush taking this by sub or decision , he really needs a win right now to guy was looking like a top 10 lightweight, he got the decision nod over michael johnson but he definitely lost that fight then he just lost to michael chiesa both quality fighters id say both top 10 talents so you know hes up there, vick is undefeated but i dont see to many quality wins, the win over jake matthews was impressive but hes a very young fighter and when he beat ramsey nijem i dont think he was at his top potential yet either plus i feel like this guys always injured.. -200 i think he has 70% + to win this fight so ill probably go straight up and possibly throw him in a parlay with porier and my large one for the night

[valueguyman]

sup... first time poster, 3 month lurker.

Any value on the Reyes vs Kim fight? It's being priced as a pick em but from the limited tape this looks like a win for Reyes. Kim is a grappler but I can't find any tape on his grappling ability and his wins against cans with losing records is mostly KOs. From watching the Steele fight his striking isn't special, below UFC par IMO and he got out struck against Dominique Steele who is mostly a decision wrestler. The plus on Kim is that he did take a lot of shots against Steele however he lost in the third round from a KO slam followed by 3 unconscious elbows on him. It was pretty brutal and his first career KO loss so who knows if he ever recovers from it.

Reyes from the limited tape has pretty decent striking and most of his wins are KOs. He did get KOd on T.U.F. exhibition but came back with a KO on a fight night card (which is on youtube). This fight is basically a judo grappler vs a striker but the problem is theres no tape on Kim's mma grappling and he doesn't exactly have a ton of submission wins against cans. Reyes ground game is nothing special though but again from limited tape he looks to have the basics down and has a submission win.

From Jibby's post the writer is predicting a Kim submission but thats about the only he can win where as Reyes can either get the KO or decision win. Maybe Kim can hump for good ground position and eek out a decision but Reyes could hold em off till they stand and he outpoints Kim for the W.

Thoughts? TY

[JIBBBY]

sup... first time poster, 3 month lurker.

Any value on the Reyes vs Kim fight? It's being priced as a pick em but from the limited tape this looks like a win for Reyes. Kim is a grappler but I can't find any tape on his grappling ability and his wins against cans with losing records is mostly KOs. From watching the Steele fight his striking isn't special, below UFC par IMO and he got out struck against Dominique Steele who is mostly a decision wrestler. The plus on Kim is that he did take a lot of shots against Steele however he lost in the third round from a KO slam followed by 3 unconscious elbows on him. It was pretty brutal and his first career KO loss so who knows if he ever recovers from it.

Reyes from the limited tape has pretty decent striking and most of his wins are KOs. He did get KOd on T.U.F. exhibition but came back with a KO on a fight night card (which is on youtube). This fight is basically a judo grappler vs a striker but the problem is theres no tape on Kim's mma grappling and he doesn't exactly have a ton of submission wins against cans. Reyes ground game is nothing special though but again from limited tape he looks to have the basics down and has a submission win.

From Jibby's post the writer is predicting a Kim submission but thats about the only he can win where as Reyes can either get the KO or decision win. Maybe Kim can hump for good ground position and eek out a decision but Reyes could hold em off till they stand and he outpoints Kim for the W.

Thoughts? TY

I typically like to fade Asians fighting in the UFC but I went with KIM ITD myself as I saw value in that prop.. Kim can get the win by KO or Sub I believe in this fight.. Thru a benny down... Slight chance this fight could go to decision but I'm betting against that since KIM has an 85% finishing rate.. 11 of 13 wins have come ITD and either by KO or Sub.http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Dong-Hyun-Kim-21673

$100.00

$187.00

Pending

6/4/16 6:00pm MMA Props Fighting 2205 Kim wins inside distance +187* vs Not Kim inside distance

Both these fighters are a bit unproven, been fighting in lessor venues mostly.. I'm really not impressed by either fighter but decided to pick the dog with the least amount of flees in this bout. Kim has a bit more experience and is probably more well rounded then Reyes from what I can tell...

I can't knock anyone for fading Kim in this fight though.. I'm going against my better judgement and my Asian UFC fade theory as well...

At +187 ITD that's my play for value.. Not super confident..



Polo
Reyes
"El Toro"
vs
Dong Hyun
Kim
"The Maestro"

MEXICO
Country
SOUTH KOREA

6-3-0
Record
13-7-3

17%
KO/TKO
46%

0%
SUB
38%

0%
DEC
15%

71 in
Height
71 in

155 lbs
Weight
155 lbs

71 in
Reach
70 in

41 in
Leg Reach
42 in

[JIBBBY]

I'm ever so slightly leaning Daruish as well but not happy from what I saw from him in his last fight loss to Chiesa.. Michael Chiesa is a bit of a beast though.. I have no action on this fight yet.. Waiting til after weigh ins... Vick is also undefeated at 9-0 and that scares me..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Beneil-Dariush-56583

Game time decision for me with this scrap.. THIS DOG VICK COULD VERY WELL BARK THOUGH...

May just end up playing the over or "fight going the distance" prop since both these fighters have decent ground games and not a ton of KO power..

FS1



Beneil
Dariush
vs
James
Vick
"The Texecutioner"

IRAN
Country
USA

12-2-0
Record
9-0-0

17%
KO/TKO
11%

50%
SUB
44%

33%
DEC
44%

70 in
Height
75 in

155 lbs
Weight
155 lbs

72 in
Reach
76 in

40 in
Leg Reach
43 in

[JIBBBY]

i think rockhold is just putting it out there so people dont get mad if he doesnt finish him in the first
realistically its irrelevant luke will put a beatdown on him, bisping will land a few small shots and have some movement because hell be fresh from the smaller camp but in the end rockhold will put it on him, i see him dropping him with a body kick them finishing him by tko on the ground round 2-3


thinking about putting something on beniel dariush as well, i see him outclassing james vick, hopefully land some leg kicks them take him down and dominate , james vick is super tall for the division so hell be easy to takedown as long as he doesnt pick him apart with jabs all 3 rounds i see dariush taking this by sub or decision , he really needs a win right now to guy was looking like a top 10 lightweight, he got the decision nod over michael johnson but he definitely lost that fight then he just lost to michael chiesa both quality fighters id say both top 10 talents so you know hes up there, vick is undefeated but i dont see to many quality wins, the win over jake matthews was impressive but hes a very young fighter and when he beat ramsey nijem i dont think he was at his top potential yet either plus i feel like this guys always injured.. -200 i think he has 70% + to win this fight so ill probably go straight up and possibly throw him in a parlay with porier and my large one for the night

I ment to quote this post of yours Fire in reference to my last above post..

Messed that up, my bad..

[CaptChaos145]

Lines just got better for Dariush and Ortega and Breese. Rockhold prop bets got better too

[Unwritten Law]

Lots of line movement. Some notable shifts from what I remember:

Rockhold down from as high as -1000 to -700
Cruz -600 to -475
Lombard up -400 from -375
Poirier down from -220 to -195
Dariush -200 to -150?
Breese opened as favorite now underdog at -105

[Beelzebubzy]

What do you mean 'when'?

This Saturday. Michael The Count Bisping is going to land so many leg kicks on the bum leg that I won't be able to count them.


and neewwwwwwww

[eligibletackle]

I'm really eying down Cruz points handicap (-5.5) -175. The things that scare me are fan reactions to Faber's missed swings and Dominick's style sometime being perceived by judges as less aggressive. This should be a starching and I think Dom ITD as likely as Dom by Dec at this point in their careers.

Like Poirier a little bit.

Dariush outclasses Vick but I think Vick's length and size could pose a problem.

Can't deem any dog tackle eligible at this juncture, apologies to my subscribers

[valueguyman]

thx for the info Jibbs. I fade Asian fighters as well and I don't see anything that makes this the exception. I don't agree with the 85% finishing rate as a strong point because since 2010 Kim has gone 8-5 and 7/8 of those wins opponents had .500 or below records. He is an average can-beating journeyman in a regional Korean circuit and I just don't see that translating in the UFC. Reyes strength of opponents isn't that special either but he went 1-1 on T.U.F. beat a 7-0 guy on a fight night card, and loss to a guy who is now fighting in the ufc. So I give a slight opponent edge to Reyes but you right about Kim's experience. Kim's only strong point seems to be that hes hard to KO.

So in that case, Reyes only way of winning is likely decision whereas Kim can get a decision and submission. So a straight up bet on Reyes as a 50% probability only looks OK now. But Reyes winning by decision is +400 and that looks good. Kim by submission, KO, decision are all ranging around +300 to +500 and not enough fighter tape to see which one is likely so in that case if you like Kim then your ITD one is good.

[Broxbomber]

Bet365 has "method of victory - double chance" rockhold to win by KO / TKO or Decision for -105.

im guessing that means if Rockhold wins by either way the bet wins. Feels too good to be true.

[JIBBBY]

This Saturday. Michael The Count Bisping is going to land so many leg kicks on the bum leg that I won't be able to count them.


and neewwwwwwww

[JIBBBY]

^^^Wouldn't that be something if Hendo dropped that same H-bomb from hell on Lombard?

Both Bisping and Hendo landing something big tomorrow night are slim.. Good luck though as anything can happen in MMA as we all know that... I gotta bet with what is more likely to happen in fights..

Good luck Beelz though and if I lose big on those plays I'll be the first to congrats you and V for the huge dog win calls..



Watching RFA now and winning money.. Wish someone would start a thread on these smaller venues as I don't mind sharing and posting.... I work those fights pretty hard..

[Thrilla]

[Thrilla]

.........................