UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Garbrandt (May 29, 2016)

[JIBBBY]

UFC Fight Night 88 - Lightweight 3 rounds - Mandalay Bay Events Center - Las Vegas, Nevada - FS1
Sun 5/29		1501 Josh Burkman		+215	o2½ -155
9:00PM		1502 Paul Felder		-255	u2½ +135

I think this fight is gonna be bad ass!! Josh comes to bang and we all know Paul Felder does too. Paul finds ways to lose fights lately by decision and thinking just maybe Josh Burkman has a chance in this one?

Anybody got thoughts on this fight? Josh Burkman has only been KO'd once in his MMA career.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Joshua-Burkman-10003

[GunShard]

Great call on Gunnar by submission btw. I should've trailed. I like Almeida. Other two IDK.

Thanks!

[CaptChaos145]

UFC Fight Night 88 - Lightweight 3 rounds - Mandalay Bay Events Center - Las Vegas, Nevada - FS1
Sun 5/29		1501 Josh Burkman		+215	o2½ -155
9:00PM		1502 Paul Felder		-255	u2½ +135

I think this fight is gonna be bad ass!! Josh comes to bang and we all know Paul Felder does too. Paul finds ways to lose fights lately by decision and thinking just maybe Josh Burkman has a chance in this one?

Anybody got thoughts on this fight? Josh Burkman has only been KO'd once in his MMA career.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Joshua-Burkman-10003

Paul doesn't hurt people with his hands. He's a kick heavy striker. I could see Burkman landing the ko punch more than I can see Paul landing it.

I think Josh will use his wrestling (if he's smart) and try to wear Paul down. But Paul has great kness in close.

Interesting fight. I'm not touching it but if I did I'd take the value with Burkman.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Prelim lines posted on 5Ds

[CaptChaos145]

^^
I can't believe Jorge Masvidal is the dog against Larkin..

Granted Larkin is looking good in recent fights and he's as tough as nails, but I just think Masvidal is the better technical striker. This one should stay standing and go the distance with Masvidal getting the decision win on points...

Hit this myself for starters..

$200.00

$240.00

Pending

5/29/16 9:30pm UFC Fighting 1402 Jorge Masvidal +120* vs Lorenz Larkin

Jibby watch Larkin's last few fights. he's a terror on the feet. Masividal lost a close fight against Al Iaquinta a year ago. Larkin's striking is more dangerous than Al's.

Brunson used his wrestling to control Larkin at MW but Larkin took it to him on the feet. Masvidal will have a lot of trouble taking Larkin down and Larkin will light him up on the feet.

Larkin is the dark horse in the WW division.

Plus Larkin has fought most of his fights at higher weights (185 & up) and Masvidal at lower weights (155.) Masvidal will not have the speed advantage because of this. Larkin will be quicker and more dynamic. Larkin is a beast man. Bet the other side to save some money! I'll have $600 on Larkin when all is said and done.

[JIBBBY]

Jibby watch Larkin's last few fights. he's a terror on the feet. Masividal lost a close fight against Al Iaquinta a year ago. Larkin's striking is more dangerous than Al's.

Brunson used his wrestling to control Larkin at MW but Larkin took it to him on the feet. Masvidal will have a lot of trouble taking Larkin down and Larkin will light him up on the feet.

Larkin is the dark horse in the WW division.

Plus Larkin has fought most of his fights at higher weights (185 & up) and Masvidal at lower weights (155.) Masvidal will not have the speed advantage because of this. Larkin will be quicker and more dynamic. Larkin is a beast man. Bet the other side to save some money! I'll have $600 on Larkin when all is said and done.

I can't argue your points Cap.. Still, just looking at how both fighters fight standing I give the technical edge to Masvidal.. I don't think this fight hits the ground but if it did I'd say Masvidal is a bit more slick with his submissions..

Masvidal's volume and output at times is a bit suspect but Larkin is not a full pressing fighter either and cardio machine.. This should be a highly contested striking contest where I don't think either fighter can KO the other.. It probably goes to decision with perhaps Masvidal winning by SPLIT.. That's how I see it anyway..

Masvidal has been at the top of the food chain for a while now and chomping at the bit for a title fight and run.. It starts with this fight if he gets past Larkin..

Capt. Larkin has been looking great in fights so I could be wrong.. I just went with Masvidal as the dog..

Masvidal out pointed guys like KJ Noons whom was a pretty good boxer himself at the time.. Dirty Bird Means as well.. Oh and Masvidal got robbed against Al Aiquinta just for the record in that fight..

[bjpenn85]

So Emil Weber Meek wins against palhares as a -900 underdog, making ....6/6 large underdogs in approximately one week hit. What in the fakk is going on here, this has to be the absolute most insane underdog streak of all time.

[Rich Benjamins]

So Emil Weber Meek wins against palhares as a -900 underdog, making ....6/6 large underdogs in approximately one week hit. What in the fakk is going on here, this has to be the absolute most insane underdog streak of all time.

Palhares looked like a rookie, while Meek looked like a UFC champion. Another incidence where you should never bet on a favorite just because he's a favorite. I'll bet most people that bet on Palhares had never even heard of Meek and never watched him fight.

[GunShard]

http://www.mmafighting.com/2016/5/21/11733226/video-emil-weber-meek-knocks-out-rousimar-palhares-at-venator-fc-3

Nice underdog win. Attempting takedowns too early in a fight is a bad idea as your opponent has fresh strength to knock you out.

[Rich Benjamins]

http://www.mmafighting.com/2016/5/21...t-venator-fc-3

Nice underdog win. Attempting takedowns too early in a fight is a bad idea as your opponent has fresh strength to knock you out.

You also should throw some punches first to setup the takedown. Palhares didn't throw single punch or kick.

[CaptChaos145]

I can't argue your points Cap.. Still, just looking at how both fighters fight standing I give the technical edge to Masvidal.. I don't think this fight hits the ground but if it did I'd say Masvidal is a bit more slick with his submissions..

Masvidal's volume and output at times is a bit suspect but Larkin is not a full pressing fighter either and cardio machine.. This should be a highly contested striking contest where I don't think either fighter can KO the other.. It probably goes to decision with perhaps Masvidal winning by SPLIT.. That's how I see it anyway..

Masvidal has been at the top of the food chain for a while now and chomping at the bit for a title fight and run.. It starts with this fight if he gets past Larkin..

Capt. Larkin has been looking great in fights so I could be wrong.. I just went with Masvidal as the dog..

Masvidal out pointed guys like KJ Noons whom was a pretty good boxer himself at the time.. Dirty Bird Means as well.. Oh and Masvidal got robbed against Al Aiquinta just for the record in that fight..

Masvidal coasted a bit against Al and it cost him. I lost money on that fight. I picked Masvidal. That was a tough loss. I thought Masvidal shoulda got the nod too.

[latarianmilton]

True. I prefer Zane simon, conor rebusch, jordan breen, and the guys from bookie beatdown arent to bad either.

The thing i hate about most analysts is they pick the favorite 90% of the time, like you said since its kind of a job for them so they have no incentive to find value in their picks. So if you tailed their picks always you would quickly end up broke.

I do like to listen to Rebusch because he can usually see flaws on big favorites even if he always ends up picking the big favorite, for example he said Cummings could struggle with Lil Nog and everyone else i read swore Cummings was a lock and stuff.

Either way watching tape its a better time investment than listening to "experts".

[JIBBBY]

copy and paste MMAmania -



Cody Garbrandt: Chinless Thomas Almeida f---ed up his fight prediction, will get smashed with 'big concussive punches'

By Jesse Holland
@Jesse_Holland on Apr 13, 2016, 2:17p 58

Tweet Share (784) Pin

One thing I can appreciate is a fighter who doesn't beat around the bush.
Undefeated Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) bantamweight prospect Cody Garbrandt is gearing up for his upcoming UFC Fight Night 88 headliner opposite rising Brazilian star Thomas Almeida, which takes place Sun., May 29, 2016 inside Mandalay Bay Events Center in Las Vegas, Nevada.

And the Team Alpha Male product told Submission Radio his "Sin City" opponent already ****** up.

"I'm a better martial artist than him all around. Wherever this fight's going to go, I'm going to dictate the pace. He's going to be my dancing partner, he's gonna step to my beat. I guarantee you that. I'm a better athlete than him, I hit harder than him, I'm meaner than him. But this is the fight that I get up for. You know, the fights that may make me have to do extra work. I have a threat in there and he's trying to give me my first loss, so I'm gonna give him his first loss. You know, he's trying to do that, but I'm gonna do that. I really believe in myself. Like, he said that he's gonna knock me out in the second round? If you truly believe that you're the best, you're 21-0 and this and that and everyone's praising you, you finish me in the first round. You know? That's where he ****** up. He don't believe in himself. I'm gonna take him out in first round, guarantee it. He better hope that his chin holds up in the first round so he can make his prediction right in the second round and take me out. But it's not gonna happen. He's got no chin. I'm gonna test that early on, and you know, with a lot of big punches that he's not going to be able to survive. You know, big concussive punches that are going to turn his brain off for sure."

That sounds painful.

Garbrandt (8-0) is perfect in three trips to the Octagon, including his knockout win over submission ace Augusto Mendes back in February. Almeida (20-0), meanwhile, made a mockery of the Brazilian circuit before transitioning to the ranks of ZUFFA in late 2014.
Fun fight.

[brooks85]

more than anything just hoping for a fight and not a aldo/conor or werdum/miocic outcome.

[Hugo de Naranja]

What do you guys think about Sterling/Caraway? I think that the current line gives Sterling too much credit. He's an elite prospect and not a bad fighter but he hasn't really faced any top opposition yet. Although I'm not really a fan of Caraway, I think this fight is closer than the odds indicate.

[bjpenn85]

What do you guys think about Sterling/Caraway? I think that the current line gives Sterling too much credit. He's an elite prospect and not a bad fighter but he hasn't really faced any top opposition yet. Although I'm not really a fan of Caraway, I think this fight is closer than the odds indicate.

Based on the opposition Sterling has faced its hard to justify this line. But he has done everything one would expect from a prospect.as well. But im not entirely convinced how Sterling will look ir hes forced to strike without reling on takedowns. Caraway is a good fighter, not flashy and pretty basic, but his fundamentals are there, so if Sterling has holes experience wise or striking wisw, theres a possibility Caraway can exploit him. Hard to see Sterling finishing Caraway which makes Caraway has opportunity to find a way to win, im rather siding with Caraway for +300 or even +375 now.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Based on the opposition Sterling has faced its hard to justify this line. But he has done everything one would expect from a prospect.as well. But im not entirely convinced how Sterling will look ir hes forced to strike without reling on takedowns. Caraway is a good fighter, not flashy and pretty basic, but his fundamentals are there, so if Sterling has holes experience wise or striking wisw, theres a possibility Caraway can exploit him. Hard to see Sterling finishing Caraway which makes Caraway has opportunity to find a way to win, im rather siding with Caraway for +300 or even +375 now.

I haven't been impressed with Sterling's striking and Caraway has pretty good wrestling/TDD. I think it's possible that the majority of this fight takes place on the feet and Caraway outsrikes Sterling to a decision.

[Killer_Demo]

Whats line prop for mr. Tate by sub? My book doesn't have prop bets

[JIBBBY]

What do you guys think about Sterling/Caraway? I think that the current line gives Sterling too much credit. He's an elite prospect and not a bad fighter but he hasn't really faced any top opposition yet. Although I'm not really a fan of Caraway, I think this fight is closer than the odds indicate.

Copy and paste MMAMania -

135 lbs.: Aljamain Sterling vs. Bryan Caraway

Aljamain Sterling (12-0) had a rougher go than expected in his debut against Cody Gibson, but has looked utterly unstoppable since. In his most recent bout, "Funk Master" dominated the Nova Uniao striking standout Johny Eduardo before ultimately tapping him with a second-round guillotine.


He will give up two inches of height to the 5’9" Bryan Caraway (20-7).

Caraway -- formerly of Team Alpha Male -- came up short in his stiffest test to date against Raphael Assuncao two Octobers ago. In his sole 2015 appearance, however, he upset Eddie Wineland in one of his best Octagon performances to date.

Seventeen of his 20 wins have come by submission.

There is a very high possibility of some wicked ground exchanges in this bout -- both men are capable wrestlers who excel in scrambles. That’s not to say said exchanges will necessarily be competitive, however. "Funk Master" is a prodigious talent who has really come into his own in UFC, demonstrating tremendous skill and exponential improvement. Very, very few people in the 135-pound division could do what he did to Takeya Mizugaki.

Caraway, while capable of surviving most of what Sterling can dish out, is just a couple of steps behind in almost every facet of the game. Sterling continues his rise with a dominant performance.


Prediction: Sterling via unanimous decision

[bjpenn85]

Whats line prop for mr. Tate by sub? My book doesn't have prop bets

getting greedy, probably wins by dec, then you underdog pick is a loss, no point. be safe go SU..

[CaptChaos145]

I've watched Aljo since he started out at the regional level. He had potential and now he's tapping into it. I'm leaning Aljo but there's a lot of value in Caraway at +350. Aljo isn't knocking many people out and Caraway can grapple with the top guys in the division.

[CaptChaos145]

getting greedy, probably wins by dec, then you underdog pick is a loss, no point. be safe go SU..

please disregard my ignorance.

[JIBBBY]

I didn't know Miesha Tate was fighting on this card.. Hmmmm?

Off topic - write ups coming in for this event...

[JIBBBY]

prelims - mmamania



135 lbs.: Aljamain Sterling vs. Bryan Caraway

Aljamain Sterling (12-0) had a rougher go than expected in his debut against Cody Gibson, but has looked utterly unstoppable since. In his most recent bout, "Funk Master" dominated the Nova Uniao striking standout Johny Eduardo before ultimately tapping him with a second-round guillotine.

He will give up two inches of height to the 5’9" Bryan Caraway (20-7).

Caraway -- formerly of Team Alpha Male -- came up short in his stiffest test to date against Raphael Assuncao two Octobers ago. In his sole 2015 appearance, however, he upset Eddie Wineland in one of his best Octagon performances to date. Seventeen of his 20 wins have come by submission.


There is a very high possibility of some wicked ground exchanges in this bout -- both men are capable wrestlers who excel in scrambles. That’s not to say said exchanges will necessarily be competitive, however. "Funk Master" is a prodigious talent who has really come into his own in UFC, demonstrating tremendous skill and exponential improvement. Very, very few people in the 135-pound division could do what he did to Takeya Mizugaki.


Caraway, while capable of surviving most of what Sterling can dish out, is just a couple of steps behind in almost every facet of the game. Sterling continues his rise with a dominant performance.
Prediction: Sterling via unanimous decision


265 lbs.: Chris De La Rocha vs. Adam Milstead

Chris De La Rocha (4-1) made his Octagon debut in Glasgow last year, replacing Konstantin Erokhin against Daniel Omielanczuk on the card’s opening bout. He didn’t get much of a chance to show his stuff, as the Pole knocked him out just 48 seconds in.


He has stopped three opponents in the first round, including journeyman D.J. Linderman.

Adam Milstead (7-1) lost via technical knockout in his professional debut, but has yet to lose or even see the judges since. He’s stopped each of his last three opponents via knockout in less than two minutes.
Overall, "The Prototype" has knocked out five opponents and submitted another two.

Ah, Heavyweights -- the guys who you want to watch as little as possible. These two don’t look likely to break the "immediate knockout or God-awful slop fest" mold anytime soon, but this could be fun while it lasts.

Milstead’s got big power and a decent wrestling background, which ought to nullify De La Rocha’s grappling and force him to exchange. There, De La Rocha’s pretty much entirely limited to a decent one-two combination and isn’t durable enough to withstand "The Prototype’s" power punches. Milstead takes him out midway through the first.
Prediction: Milstead via first-round technical knockout


135 lbs.: Sara McMann vs. Jessica Eye

The decision Sara McMann (8-3) earned over Shayna Baszler in her final Invicta appearance and beatdown of Sheila Gaff in her Octagon debut combined with her Olympic silver medal to give her a crack at then-women's Bantamweight champion Ronda Rousey. Things have gone a bit south since, as she’s gone 1-3 and been stopped twice in that span.


She has submitted three opponents and knocked out another.

Jessica Eye (11-4) made a name for herself with a submission of former Bellator tournament winner Zoila Frausto, but has struggled to make the same kind of impact in UFC. "Evil" is just 1-3 (1 NC) in the world’s largest fight promotion, a win over Sara Kaufmann overturned because of marijuana metabolites. Her four stoppage wins include three by way of knockout.


Though both women entered UFC with considerable promise, it’s become abundantly clear that neither has a place among the elite. McMann’s striking and submission games remain underdeveloped and Eye has struggled mightily to overcome her persistent size disadvantage. Both women need to fix their respective issues for this fight. Nonetheless, McMann’s overpowering wrestling matches up well with Eye’s grappling deficiencies, while Eye’s crisp boxing counters McMann’s plodding stand up.


It’s a close match up, but I’m going to have to go with McMann. I simply do not believe Eye can hold off the takedown for all 15 minutes unless McMann burns herself out going for an early finish again. The Olympian re-enters the win column with a grinding decision.

Prediction: McMann via unanimous decision


155 lbs.: Abel Trujillo vs. Jordan Rinaldi

Abel Trujillo (14-6) entered his UFC 195 showdown with Tony Sims as the underdog, having been choked out by Tony Ferguson and bulldozed by Gleison Tibau in a later-overturned defeat previously. Despite a rough start, Trujillo hit a lovely guillotine for his first UFC submission victory. He will give up two inches of height to the 5’10" Jordan Rinaldi (12-4).


Rinaldi came up short in his bid for The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 15: "Live" stardom, then proceeded to lose four of his next six bouts. Since then, however, he’s won five straight, including pair of main event victories under the RFA banner.


He steps in for Carlos Diego Ferreira, who was nabbed by the USADA in pre-fight testing.

I had Ferreira pegged to defeat Trujillo rather handily. "Killa’s" wild offense opens him up to easy reactive takedowns and his ground game has been ruthlessly exploited in the past. Rinaldi, unfortunately, doesn’t have the Brazilian’s killer submission threat and had very little time to prepare for Trujillo’s bulldozer assault.
Rinaldi has a very solid transition game and, were he more of a physical presence, would be a decent underdog pick. As is, expect Trujillo to punish Rinaldi in the clinch before eventually putting him away with power punches.
Prediction: Trujillo via first-round technical knockout



185 lbs.: Jake Collier vs. Alberto Pereira


Following his knockout loss to Vitor Miranda that came one second before the end of the first round, Jake Collier (9-3) upset TUF: "Brazil 3" competitor Ricardo Abreu via split decision. His last fight saw him face Dongi Yang in the latter’s native South Korea, where Collier suffered a knockout loss in the second round.

He has stopped seven opponents, four of them via knockout.

Brazil’s Alberto Pereira (9-0) has seen the judges just once as a professional, knocking out and submitting four opponents apiece. In his most recent bout, he knocked out former TUF: "Brazil" competitor Thiago "Bodao" with a heavy knee.


"Uda" replaces the injured Keith Berish on approximately two months’ notice.

I have to admit, I regularly struggle to differentiate Collier and Chris Dempsey in my mind -- both unimpressive wrestlers with a penchant for getting brutally knocked out. Collier’s only got two UFC knockout losses compared to Dempsey’s three, but I expect Pereira to fix that this weekend.

With Collier’s pursuit of the takedown and Pereira’s Muay Thai stylings, most of this fight should take place in the clinch, where "Uda" has proven much more adept at dealing damage. The Brazilian’s knees and punches in transition ought to pay dividends as he steadily batters his foe into submission.

Prediction: Pereira via second-round technical knockout



155 lbs.: Erik Koch vs. Shane Campbell

It’s been a rough road for Roufusport’s Erik Koch (14-4) , whose 2011 wins over Raphael Assunca and Jonathan Brookins had him poised for a title shot. Injuries kept him out of action for over a year afterwards and he has lost three of his last four, two of them by knockout.

This will be his first fight in two years.

Shane Campbell (10-4) started strong against John Makdessi in his short-notice Octagon debut, only to be battered into submission late in the first round. "Shaolin" rebounded with an upset of Elias Silverio, but dropped a decision to James Krause his last time out.

At 6’0", he is two inches taller than Koch.

Koch’s recent career has been downright disappointing ... and I’m not just talking about his Trumpian tan. He’s a very capable striker and grappler, but struggles to integrate the two the way that teammate Anthony Pettis did during the latter’s original rise through the ranks. Limited wrestling and a shaky chin present further difficulties for "New Breed" -- and while Campbell is a decidedly mid-tier Lightweight -- his height and power represent serious obstacles.

In all likelihood, this one will be decided on the feet. Campbell wins enough exchanges at range to take home the decision.
Prediction: Campbell via unanimous decision

[Heyeverybody99]

Nice find Unc.. That wasn't even a sanctioned fight.. Cody must have been 20 years old in that fight and just starting out..

Cody got caught cold and on the chin.. Nobody takes that clean shot standing and cold with the first punch connect of the fight.. Almieda would have been put out too..

Like I said I like the under round bets mostly in this fight.. Will role the dice with Cody by KO as well..

Almeida is no joke though I know...

First time in mma history that neither fighter lands a punch in 2 rounds.

[JIBBBY]

OK just about done capping these fights.. The wait is a killer as usual.. Just need the weigh in check and I'll be locked and loaded!!!!


JUST 2 DAYS AWAY...

[Heyeverybody99]

Where is that poster Rocky at? I miss that guy. He was a solid capper too

[CaptChaos145]

OK just about done capping these fights.. The wait is a killer as usual.. Just need the weigh in check and I'll be locked and loaded!!!!


JUST 2 DAYS AWAY...

Just don't bet against The Monsoon. Chiesa rocked Masvidal. What do you think Larkin will do? And this fight ain't hitting the ground and if it does it won't be for long.

[JIBBBY]

Just don't bet against The Monsoon. Chiesa rocked Masvidal. What do you think Larkin will do? And this fight ain't hitting the ground and if it does it won't be for long.

I still can't believe Jorge Masvidal is the dog against Larkin..

Granted Larkin is looking good in recent fights and he's as tough as nails, but I just think Masvidal is the better technical striker. This one should stay standing and go the distance with Masvidal getting the decision win on points...

Hit this myself for starters..

$200.00

$240.00

Pending

5/29/16 9:30pm UFC Fighting 1402 Jorge Masvidal +120* vs Lorenz Larkin

[JIBBBY]

Weigh ins can viewed on the UFC website later today.. Not seeing it on youtube or cable/dish tv..

http://www.ufc.com/media/fight-night-las-vegas-official-weigh-in?id=

[Heyeverybody99]

Weigh ins can viewed on the UFC website later today.. Not seeing it on youtube or cable/dish tv..

http://www.ufc.com/media/fight-night...l-weigh-in?id=

That's because it's tomorrow Jibbs

[UncleChael]

I'm a Bad Mama Jama, Bad Mama Jama.

[ufcmma36]

Nice find Unc.. That wasn't even a sanctioned fight.. Cody must have been 20 years old in that fight and just starting out..

Cody got caught cold and on the chin.. Nobody takes that clean shot standing and cold with the first punch connect of the fight.. Almieda would have been put out too..

Like I said I like the under round bets mostly in this fight.. Will role the dice with Cody by KO as well..

Almeida is no joke though I know...

That fight was edited, making it seem like it was first round first punch... In actuality that was the 3rd round! An amateur fight. Jerrel Hodge is now 1-1 as a pro.

[ufcmma36]

oops, quoted wrong video, WAS trying too post the cody g vs jerrel hodge.

[UncleChael]

I flipped picks I'm with Jibbbys.