UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Garbrandt (May 29, 2016)

[UncleChael]

Take Almedia.

Pros stick to their guns.

[Killer_Demo]

Only play for me is 2 unit on Jeremy Stephens +155. Fading barao

[Beelzebubzy]

NO.... I cap fights so I'm a bit more confident in my specific dog selection rather then hopeful random selection.. Like I said if 5 or 6 favorites were to hit in a row while doing the double up then that gets very sketchy and stressful...

However, Based on dog hit trends with the UFC events recently it's more likely every 3rd fight at most a dog will hit though. If that's the case and that trend continues in this event then you will make money trying the double up theory..

every third fight a dog hits?

fights are not correlated like that. result of fight A has no impact on fight B

[dhristov211]

does josh post here?

[Hugo de Naranja]

My Picks for this Event:
Milstead Rd 1 TKO
Caraway Split Decision
Campbell Rd 2 TKO
Pereira Rd 1 Submission
Trujillo Rd 1 TKO
Eye Split Decision
Felder Unanimous Decision
Larkin Unanimous Decision
Miranda Unanimous Decision
Story Unanimous Decision
Barao Rd 2 Submission
Almeida Rd 2 TKO

[Beelzebubzy]

does josh post here?

No. Now deposit two points below.

[JIBBBY]

^^^I'm on Milstead by KO for really small in the first fight too.. Even at -150 ... I was tempted to NO play this fight.. Not confident at all with this but I'll roll the dice for a 50 spot to be entertained......

Next couple fights after that I'm rolling with the dogs.. Just wasn't able to sniff out props or hedge play on fights 2 and 3.. Just going with the straights..


Fight #1 -

$50.00

$33.30

Pending

5/29/16 6:00pm MMA Props Fighting 2133 Milstead wins by TKO/KO -150* vs Any other result

Fight #2 -

$150.00

$525.00

Pending

5/29/16 6:30pm UFC Fighting 2001 Bryan Caraway +350* vs Aljamain Sterling

Fight #3 -

$100.00

$145.00

Pending

5/29/16 7:00pm UFC Fighting 1902 Erik Koch +145* vs Shane Campbell

[JIBBBY]

I wanna hedge in fight #2 and still might but just wish the odds were a bit better with this prop.. I may still back up the $150 with this hedge play..

2011 Sterling wins by 3 round decision

-106

[Hugo de Naranja]

I wanna hedge in fight #2 and still might but just wish the odds were a bit better with this prop.. I may still back up the $150 with this hedge play..

2011 Sterling wins by 3 round decision

-106

I'm betting Sterling/Caraway this way. It's possible for Sterling to finish Caraway but I think that's pretty unlikely. Caraway is the best value dog on this entire card.

[Mxs1332]

Good luck to everyone and their picks tonight. This is a great match up card stylistically. Also Joe Rogan and the boys are holding a fight companion podcast!!

WOO HOO cheers gents

My card:

1.75 units to win 1 5/29/16 11:59pm UFC Fighting 1002 Thomas Almeida -175*vs Cody Garbrandt

1.6u to win 1 5/29/16 11:30pm UFC Fighting 1102 Renan Barao -160*vs Jeremy Stephens

1.25u to win 1 5/29/16 10:31pm UFC Fighting 1201 Rick Story -125* vs Tarec Saffiedine

1u to win 1.1u 5/29/16 10:00pm UFC Fighting 1301 Chris Camozzi +110*vs Vitor Miranda

1u to win 1.15u 5/29/16 8:30pm UFC Fighting 1601 Jessica Eye +115* vs Sara McMann

1.05u to win 1 unit 5/29/16 7:30pm UFC Fighting 1802 Alberto Pereira Uda -105*vs Jake Collier

.5u to win 1.25u
5/29/16 8:00pm UFC Fighting 1702 Jordan Rinaldi +250*vs Abel Trujillo

Did take fight on short notice but if he can get out of the 1st round i like his chances from then on


Then 3 team parlay 1u to win 2.59u

3 Team Parlay
				Pending	5/29/16 11:59pm UFC Fighting 1002 Thomas Almeida -175*vs Cody Garbrandt
				Pending	5/29/16 11:30pm UFC Fighting 1102 Renan Barao -155*vs Jeremy Stephens
				Pending	5/29/16 6:00pm UFC Fighting 2102 Adam Milstead -255*vs Chris De La Rocha

Added 2nd parlay - 3 units to win 5.55u

3 Team Parlay
				Pending	5/29/16 11:59pm UFC Fighting 1002 Thomas Almeida -175*vs Cody Garbrandt
				Pending	5/29/16 6:30pm UFC Fighting 2002 Aljamain Sterling -330*vs Bryan Caraway
				Pending	5/29/16 6:00pm UFC Fighting 2102 Adam Milstead -255*

[UncleChael]

I wanna hedge in fight #2 and still might but just wish the odds were a bit better with this prop.. I may still back up the $150 with this hedge play..

2011 Sterling wins by 3 round decision

-106

The Bad Mama Jama will finish Caraway.

[Mxs1332]

test

[firekillex]

i think my boy funk master gets a decision tbh, i see him clearly winning the striking exchanges with his length and creativity, not to impressed with carraways striking 30-27 sterling


cody no love +155
jeremy stephen +135
larkin -110

i like the dog value in tonights main events BOL

[Mxs1332]

Added some prop play from some very friendly advice.

1u to win 5.2u MMA Props Fighting 1305 Camozzi wins inside distance +502* vs Not Camozzi inside distance

.25u to win 2.35u MMA Props Fighting 1529 Burkman wins by TKO/KO +940* vs Any other result

1u to win 1.3u MMA Props Fighting 1541 Burkman points handicap +3½ +130* vs Felder points

0.4u to win 8.9u MMA Props Fighting 1725 Rinaldi wins in round 3 +2225* vs Any other

1u to win 1.55u MMA Props Fighting 1742 Rinaldi points handicap +3½ +155* vs Trujillo points handicap

0.5u to win 1.21u MMA Props Fighting 1809 Pereira wins inside distance +242* vs Not Pereira inside distance

1u to win 4u MMA Props Fighting 1833 Pereira wins by TKO/KO +400* vs Any other result

1u to win 4.8u MMA Props Fighting 1933 Koch wins by TKO/KO +480* vs Any other result

[firekillex]

should toss .5-1 unit on stephens by tko/ko inside the distance

nice prop bets though good luck

[GunShard]

After watching these fights of Almeida and Garbrant. I think Garbrant is a live dog.
Considering betting Over 1.5 rounds based on how they fight.

[JIBBBY]

should toss .5-1 unit on stephens by tko/ko inside the distance

nice prop bets though good luck

Not a bad idea at all..

I'm on Stephens straight myself for a good amount.. Was entertaining the idea of the KO prop earlier and may still ad a bit on it.. Barao hasn't proven he's back to his old self yet.. Chin is still in question..

1129 Stephens wins by TKO/KO

+290

Not likely Stephens sub's out Barao but it is a slightly safer play with ITD..

1105 Stephens wins inside distance

+269

[JIBBBY]

After watching these fights of Almeida and Garbrant. I think Garbrant is a live dog.
Considering betting Over 1.5 rounds based on how they fight.

I'm on Cody.. If Cody wins it's probably gonna be by KO.. If he loses it will probably be by KO on the flip side.. I doubt these heavy hitters go to decision..

$100.00

$230.00

Pending

5/29/16 11:59pm MMA Props Fighting 1037 Garbrandt wins by TKO/KO +230* vs Any other result

Can't hedge with this as the odds aren't good enough for my liking..

1041 Almeida wins by TKO/KO

-110

FS1 Main Card



Thomas
Almeida
"Thominhas"
vs
Cody
Garbrandt
"No Love"

BRAZIL
Country
USA

21-0-0
Record
8-0-0

76%
KO/TKO
88%

19%
SUB
0%

5%
DEC
13%

67 in
Height
68 in

135 lbs
Weight
135 lbs

70 in
Reach
65 in

38 in
Leg Reach
38 in

[Mxs1332]

should toss .5-1 unit on stephens by tko/ko inside the distance

nice prop bets though good luck

Not a bad idea at all..

I'm on Stephens straight myself for a good amount.. Was entertaining the idea of the KO prop earlier and may still ad a bit on it.. Barao hasn't proven he's back to his old self yet.. Chin is still in question..

1129 Stephens wins by TKO/KO

+290

Not likely Stephens sub's out Barao but it is a slightly safer play with ITD..

1105 Stephens wins inside distance

+269

Thx Stephens hits hard

I could definitely see this happening

[firekillex]

stephens hits like a mack truck and barao has a ton of fights and hasnt looked good in the past few even his win over mitch gagnon i wasnt to impressed with. i could see stephens knocking this guy into the next universe loll especially after that weigh in yesterday he looks pumped to get his hands on barao . Gonna be a crazy fight and fight card with a ton of exciting fights

[Mxs1332]

So pumped for this card!! Match up heaven... Glorious

Powerful Joe Silva

[Thor4140]

Larkin has fought most of his career at MW while the "Sucker Punch King" has fought a lot at LW. Larkin will be too fast and dynamic for Masvidal.

I don't know Capt i can see this one going to the Judges. Mas hasn't been finished in years. These fights i think will go to the judges i stay far away from. I thought Mas won his last fight and i thought Larkin won his. I like the weight class difference with Larkin and always liked Larkin but have been disappointed with him a few times with his hands. He seems to lose a little confidence in them at times. I still think he should win but of course im not the judges. Especially in these type of fights where i think the line looks a bit shady for some reason. I kinda like the Fav in the main event. I think Cody is a little bit full of himself and gets stretched. He gets sloppy at times but i need to see this line comedown a bit. I got it at -190. Not worth it at that price.

[Thrilla]

Who's on the Caraway bandwagon?

[xagonzx]

Who's on the Caraway bandwagon?

I have a very small bet on him at +325. This is just a value bet, as this is a very close fight

[xagonzx]

^^^I'm on Milstead by KO for really small in the first fight too.. Even at -150 ... I was tempted to NO play this fight.. Not confident at all with this but I'll roll the dice for a 50 spot to be entertained......

Next couple fights after that I'm rolling with the dogs.. Just wasn't able to sniff out props or hedge play on fights 2 and 3.. Just going with the straights..


Fight #1 -

$50.00

$33.30

Pending

5/29/16 6:00pm MMA Props Fighting 2133 Milstead wins by TKO/KO -150* vs Any other result

Fight #2 -

$150.00

$525.00

Pending

5/29/16 6:30pm UFC Fighting 2001 Bryan Caraway +350* vs Aljamain Sterling

Fight #3 -

$100.00

$145.00

Pending

5/29/16 7:00pm UFC Fighting 1902 Erik Koch +145* vs Shane Campbell

JIBBBY, why Koch? Especially off the long layoff? I have Campbell myself, curious why you placed your bet.

[JIBBBY]

Who's on the Caraway bandwagon?

I am and along with the straight play for $150 I also hit this earlier and forgot that I did.. I need to ad this to Fight #2 for pending bets.. Couldn't resist at these odds at the time..

$100.00

$615.00

Pending

5/29/16 6:30pm MMA Props Fighting 2007 Caraway wins by 3 round decision +615* vs Not Caraway by 3 round decision

[xagonzx]

I am and along with the straight play for $150 I also hit this earlier and forgot that I did.. I need to ad this to Fight #2 for pending bets.. Couldn't resist at these odds at the time..

$100.00

$615.00

Pending

5/29/16 6:30pm MMA Props Fighting 2007 Caraway wins by 3 round decision +615* vs Not Caraway by 3 round decision

Great odds you got. I'm tempted to hit this at +500 now for a small bet also. I could see a sub from either fighter though, by leaving a small gap in a scramble.

[UncleChael]

I'm a Bad Mama Jama, Bad Mama Jama.

[xagonzx]

So pumped for this card!! Match up heaven... Glorious

Powerful Joe Silva

Me too! Great, close fights up and down!

[xagonzx]

Card is about to kick off. I don't have too much invested in this card, a lot of .25 to 1 unit bets. Too many close matchups that i can't get a good read on.

Good luck all!

[JIBBBY]

JIBBBY, why Koch? Especially off the long layoff? I have Campbell myself, curious why you placed your bet.

In a quick nut shell --

I was actually thinking Koch by decision but he has many ways to win and or finish the fight.. Koch fought and lost to some of the best in the division (Porier and Lamas) and was game in a couple of those fights. Cambell simple is not one of the very best and has not fought to the same level of competition IMO..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Erik-Koch-23390

Had to go with the dog in this one even with the layoff... He's coming off a very ugly quick KO loss to Cruishank and I think he will bring his best into this rebound fight win or lose..

[JIBBBY]

Game time!!! Let's do this!!!


Milstead for the KO for peanuts..

[xagonzx]

I was actually thinking Koch by decision but he has more ways to win and finish the fight.. Koch fought and lost to some of the best in the division (Porier and Lamas) and was game in a couple of those fights. Cambell simple is not one of the very best and has not fought to the same level of competition IMO..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Erik-Koch-23390

Had to go with the dog in this one..

Fair enough. I like Campbells toughness and volume, also fading Koch off the layoff. Thanks for the insight!

[Unwritten Law]

Gotta take Milstead.

[xagonzx]

Gotta take Milstead.

Odds were too skewed for me for a HW fight. Threw a Saffedeine-Milsread parlay for a tiny bet.