UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Garbrandt (May 29, 2016)

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  • UncleChael
    SBR MVP
    • 10-30-13
    • 3979

    #106
    Originally posted by UncleChael
    Take Almedia.
    Pros stick to their guns.
    Comment
    • Killer_Demo
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 06-15-08
      • 8409

      #107
      Only play for me is 2 unit on Jeremy Stephens +155. Fading barao
      Comment
      • Beelzebubzy
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 06-06-11
        • 6995

        #108
        Originally posted by JIBBBY
        NO.... I cap fights so I'm a bit more confident in my specific dog selection rather then hopeful random selection.. Like I said if 5 or 6 favorites were to hit in a row while doing the double up then that gets very sketchy and stressful...

        However, Based on dog hit trends with the UFC events recently it's more likely every 3rd fight at most a dog will hit though. If that's the case and that trend continues in this event then you will make money trying the double up theory..
        every third fight a dog hits?

        fights are not correlated like that. result of fight A has no impact on fight B
        Comment
        • dhristov211
          SBR MVP
          • 12-18-15
          • 2535

          #109
          does josh post here?
          Comment
          • Hugo de Naranja
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 04-14-16
            • 14140

            #110
            My Picks for this Event:
            Milstead Rd 1 TKO
            Caraway Split Decision
            Campbell Rd 2 TKO
            Pereira Rd 1 Submission
            Trujillo Rd 1 TKO
            Eye Split Decision
            Felder Unanimous Decision
            Larkin Unanimous Decision
            Miranda Unanimous Decision
            Story Unanimous Decision
            Barao Rd 2 Submission
            Almeida Rd 2 TKO
            Comment
            • Beelzebubzy
              SBR Hall of Famer
              • 06-06-11
              • 6995

              #111
              Originally posted by dhristov211
              does josh post here?
              No. Now deposit two points below.
              Comment
              • JIBBBY
                SBR Aristocracy
                • 12-10-09
                • 83693

                #112
                ^^^I'm on Milstead by KO for really small in the first fight too.. Even at -150 ... I was tempted to NO play this fight.. Not confident at all with this but I'll roll the dice for a 50 spot to be entertained......

                Next couple fights after that I'm rolling with the dogs.. Just wasn't able to sniff out props or hedge play on fights 2 and 3.. Just going with the straights..


                Fight #1 -

                $50.00 $33.30 Pending 5/29/16 6:00pm MMA Props Fighting 2133 Milstead wins by TKO/KO -150* vs Any other result

                Fight #2 -

                $150.00 $525.00 Pending 5/29/16 6:30pm UFC Fighting 2001 Bryan Caraway +350* vs Aljamain Sterling

                Fight #3 -

                $100.00 $145.00 Pending 5/29/16 7:00pm UFC Fighting 1902 Erik Koch +145* vs Shane Campbell
                Last edited by JIBBBY; 05-29-16, 01:39 PM.
                Comment
                • JIBBBY
                  SBR Aristocracy
                  • 12-10-09
                  • 83693

                  #113
                  I wanna hedge in fight #2 and still might but just wish the odds were a bit better with this prop.. I may still back up the $150 with this hedge play..

                  2011 Sterling wins by 3 round decision -106
                  Comment
                  • Hugo de Naranja
                    SBR Posting Legend
                    • 04-14-16
                    • 14140

                    #114
                    Originally posted by JIBBBY
                    I wanna hedge in fight #2 and still might but just wish the odds were a bit better with this prop.. I may still back up the $150 with this hedge play..

                    2011 Sterling wins by 3 round decision -106
                    I'm betting Sterling/Caraway this way. It's possible for Sterling to finish Caraway but I think that's pretty unlikely. Caraway is the best value dog on this entire card.
                    Comment
                    • Mxs1332
                      SBR Wise Guy
                      • 03-08-16
                      • 661

                      #115
                      Good luck to everyone and their picks tonight. This is a great match up card stylistically. Also Joe Rogan and the boys are holding a fight companion podcast!!

                      WOO HOO cheers gents

                      My card:

                      1.75 units to win 1
                      5/29/16 11:59pm UFC Fighting 1002 Thomas Almeida -175*vs Cody Garbrandt
                      1.6u to win 1
                      5/29/16 11:30pm UFC Fighting 1102 Renan Barao -160*vs Jeremy Stephens
                      1.25u to win 1
                      5/29/16 10:31pm UFC Fighting 1201 Rick Story -125* vs Tarec Saffiedine
                      1u to win 1.1u
                      5/29/16 10:00pm UFC Fighting 1301 Chris Camozzi +110*vs Vitor Miranda
                      1u to win 1.15u
                      5/29/16 8:30pm UFC Fighting 1601 Jessica Eye +115* vs Sara McMann
                      1.05u to win 1 unit
                      5/29/16 7:30pm UFC Fighting 1802 Alberto Pereira Uda -105*vs Jake Collier
                      .5u to win 1.25u
                      5/29/16 8:00pm UFC Fighting 1702 Jordan Rinaldi +250*vs Abel Trujillo

                      Did take fight on short notice but if he can get out of the 1st round i like his chances from then on


                      Then 3 team parlay 1u to win 2.59u
                      3 Team Parlay
                      Pending 5/29/16 11:59pm UFC Fighting 1002 Thomas Almeida -175*vs Cody Garbrandt
                      Pending 5/29/16 11:30pm UFC Fighting 1102 Renan Barao -155*vs Jeremy Stephens
                      Pending 5/29/16 6:00pm UFC Fighting 2102 Adam Milstead -255*vs Chris De La Rocha
                      Added 2nd parlay - 3 units to win 5.55u
                      3 Team Parlay
                      Pending 5/29/16 11:59pm UFC Fighting 1002 Thomas Almeida -175*vs Cody Garbrandt
                      Pending 5/29/16 6:30pm UFC Fighting 2002 Aljamain Sterling -330*vs Bryan Caraway
                      Pending 5/29/16 6:00pm UFC Fighting 2102 Adam Milstead -255*
                      Last edited by Mxs1332; 05-29-16, 02:37 PM.
                      Comment
                      • UncleChael
                        SBR MVP
                        • 10-30-13
                        • 3979

                        #116
                        Originally posted by JIBBBY
                        I wanna hedge in fight #2 and still might but just wish the odds were a bit better with this prop.. I may still back up the $150 with this hedge play..

                        2011 Sterling wins by 3 round decision -106
                        The Bad Mama Jama will finish Caraway.
                        Comment
                        • Mxs1332
                          SBR Wise Guy
                          • 03-08-16
                          • 661

                          #117
                          test
                          Comment
                          • firekillex
                            SBR Hall of Famer
                            • 09-18-13
                            • 6420

                            #118
                            i think my boy funk master gets a decision tbh, i see him clearly winning the striking exchanges with his length and creativity, not to impressed with carraways striking 30-27 sterling


                            cody no love +155
                            jeremy stephen +135
                            larkin -110

                            i like the dog value in tonights main events BOL
                            Comment
                            • Mxs1332
                              SBR Wise Guy
                              • 03-08-16
                              • 661

                              #119
                              Added some prop play from some very friendly advice.

                              1u to win 5.2u MMA Props Fighting 1305 Camozzi wins inside distance +502* vs Not Camozzi inside distance

                              .25u to win 2.35u MMA Props Fighting 1529 Burkman wins by TKO/KO +940* vs Any other result

                              1u to win 1.3u MMA Props Fighting 1541 Burkman points handicap +3½ +130* vs Felder points

                              0.4u to win 8.9u MMA Props Fighting 1725 Rinaldi wins in round 3 +2225* vs Any other

                              1u to win 1.55u MMA Props Fighting 1742 Rinaldi points handicap +3½ +155* vs Trujillo points handicap

                              0.5u to win 1.21u MMA Props Fighting 1809 Pereira wins inside distance +242* vs Not Pereira inside distance

                              1u to win 4u MMA Props Fighting 1833 Pereira wins by TKO/KO +400* vs Any other result

                              1u to win 4.8u MMA Props Fighting 1933 Koch wins by TKO/KO +480* vs Any other result
                              Last edited by Mxs1332; 05-29-16, 04:00 PM.
                              Comment
                              • firekillex
                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                • 09-18-13
                                • 6420

                                #120
                                should toss .5-1 unit on stephens by tko/ko inside the distance

                                nice prop bets though good luck
                                Comment
                                • GunShard
                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                  • 03-05-10
                                  • 10027

                                  #121
                                  After watching these fights of Almeida and Garbrant. I think Garbrant is a live dog.
                                  Considering betting Over 1.5 rounds based on how they fight.

                                  Comment
                                  • JIBBBY
                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                    • 12-10-09
                                    • 83693

                                    #122
                                    Originally posted by firekillex
                                    should toss .5-1 unit on stephens by tko/ko inside the distance

                                    nice prop bets though good luck
                                    Not a bad idea at all..

                                    I'm on Stephens straight myself for a good amount.. Was entertaining the idea of the KO prop earlier and may still ad a bit on it.. Barao hasn't proven he's back to his old self yet.. Chin is still in question..

                                    1129 Stephens wins by TKO/KO +290
                                    Not likely Stephens sub's out Barao but it is a slightly safer play with ITD..

                                    1105 Stephens wins inside distance +269
                                    Last edited by JIBBBY; 05-29-16, 03:24 PM.
                                    Comment
                                    • JIBBBY
                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                      • 12-10-09
                                      • 83693

                                      #123
                                      Originally posted by GunShard
                                      After watching these fights of Almeida and Garbrant. I think Garbrant is a live dog.
                                      Considering betting Over 1.5 rounds based on how they fight.
                                      I'm on Cody.. If Cody wins it's probably gonna be by KO.. If he loses it will probably be by KO on the flip side.. I doubt these heavy hitters go to decision..

                                      $100.00 $230.00 Pending 5/29/16 11:59pm MMA Props Fighting 1037 Garbrandt wins by TKO/KO +230* vs Any other result

                                      Can't hedge with this as the odds aren't good enough for my liking..

                                      1041 Almeida wins by TKO/KO -110






                                      FS1 Main Card



                                      Thomas
                                      Almeida
                                      "Thominhas"
                                      vs
                                      Cody
                                      Garbrandt
                                      "No Love"

                                      BRAZIL
                                      Country
                                      USA

                                      21-0-0
                                      Record
                                      8-0-0

                                      76%
                                      KO/TKO
                                      88%

                                      19%
                                      SUB
                                      0%

                                      5%
                                      DEC
                                      13%

                                      67 in
                                      Height
                                      68 in

                                      135 lbs
                                      Weight
                                      135 lbs

                                      70 in
                                      Reach
                                      65 in

                                      38 in
                                      Leg Reach
                                      38 in
                                      Last edited by JIBBBY; 05-29-16, 03:51 PM.
                                      Comment
                                      • Mxs1332
                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                        • 03-08-16
                                        • 661

                                        #124
                                        Originally posted by firekillex
                                        should toss .5-1 unit on stephens by tko/ko inside the distance

                                        nice prop bets though good luck
                                        Originally posted by JIBBBY
                                        Not a bad idea at all..

                                        I'm on Stephens straight myself for a good amount.. Was entertaining the idea of the KO prop earlier and may still ad a bit on it.. Barao hasn't proven he's back to his old self yet.. Chin is still in question..

                                        1129 Stephens wins by TKO/KO +290
                                        Not likely Stephens sub's out Barao but it is a slightly safer play with ITD..

                                        1105 Stephens wins inside distance +269
                                        Thx Stephens hits hard

                                        I could definitely see this happening
                                        Comment
                                        • firekillex
                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                          • 09-18-13
                                          • 6420

                                          #125
                                          stephens hits like a mack truck and barao has a ton of fights and hasnt looked good in the past few even his win over mitch gagnon i wasnt to impressed with. i could see stephens knocking this guy into the next universe loll especially after that weigh in yesterday he looks pumped to get his hands on barao . Gonna be a crazy fight and fight card with a ton of exciting fights
                                          Comment
                                          • Mxs1332
                                            SBR Wise Guy
                                            • 03-08-16
                                            • 661

                                            #126
                                            So pumped for this card!! Match up heaven... Glorious

                                            Powerful Joe Silva
                                            Comment
                                            • Thor4140
                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                              • 02-09-08
                                              • 22296

                                              #127
                                              Originally posted by CaptChaos145
                                              Larkin has fought most of his career at MW while the "Sucker Punch King" has fought a lot at LW. Larkin will be too fast and dynamic for Masvidal.
                                              I don't know Capt i can see this one going to the Judges. Mas hasn't been finished in years. These fights i think will go to the judges i stay far away from. I thought Mas won his last fight and i thought Larkin won his. I like the weight class difference with Larkin and always liked Larkin but have been disappointed with him a few times with his hands. He seems to lose a little confidence in them at times. I still think he should win but of course im not the judges. Especially in these type of fights where i think the line looks a bit shady for some reason. I kinda like the Fav in the main event. I think Cody is a little bit full of himself and gets stretched. He gets sloppy at times but i need to see this line comedown a bit. I got it at -190. Not worth it at that price.
                                              Comment
                                              • Thrilla
                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                • 03-10-15
                                                • 13809

                                                #128
                                                Who's on the Caraway bandwagon?
                                                Comment
                                                • xagonzx
                                                  SBR Sharp
                                                  • 04-26-16
                                                  • 283

                                                  #129
                                                  Originally posted by Thrilla
                                                  Who's on the Caraway bandwagon?
                                                  I have a very small bet on him at +325. This is just a value bet, as this is a very close fight
                                                  Comment
                                                  • xagonzx
                                                    SBR Sharp
                                                    • 04-26-16
                                                    • 283

                                                    #130
                                                    Originally posted by JIBBBY
                                                    ^^^I'm on Milstead by KO for really small in the first fight too.. Even at -150 ... I was tempted to NO play this fight.. Not confident at all with this but I'll roll the dice for a 50 spot to be entertained......

                                                    Next couple fights after that I'm rolling with the dogs.. Just wasn't able to sniff out props or hedge play on fights 2 and 3.. Just going with the straights..


                                                    Fight #1 -

                                                    $50.00 $33.30 Pending 5/29/16 6:00pm MMA Props Fighting 2133 Milstead wins by TKO/KO -150* vs Any other result

                                                    Fight #2 -

                                                    $150.00 $525.00 Pending 5/29/16 6:30pm UFC Fighting 2001 Bryan Caraway +350* vs Aljamain Sterling

                                                    Fight #3 -

                                                    $100.00 $145.00 Pending 5/29/16 7:00pm UFC Fighting 1902 Erik Koch +145* vs Shane Campbell
                                                    JIBBBY, why Koch? Especially off the long layoff? I have Campbell myself, curious why you placed your bet.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • JIBBBY
                                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                                      • 12-10-09
                                                      • 83693

                                                      #131
                                                      Originally posted by Thrilla
                                                      Who's on the Caraway bandwagon?
                                                      I am and along with the straight play for $150 I also hit this earlier and forgot that I did.. I need to ad this to Fight #2 for pending bets.. Couldn't resist at these odds at the time..

                                                      $100.00 $615.00 Pending 5/29/16 6:30pm MMA Props Fighting 2007 Caraway wins by 3 round decision +615* vs Not Caraway by 3 round decision
                                                      Comment
                                                      • xagonzx
                                                        SBR Sharp
                                                        • 04-26-16
                                                        • 283

                                                        #132
                                                        Originally posted by JIBBBY
                                                        I am and along with the straight play for $150 I also hit this earlier and forgot that I did.. I need to ad this to Fight #2 for pending bets.. Couldn't resist at these odds at the time..

                                                        $100.00 $615.00 Pending 5/29/16 6:30pm MMA Props Fighting 2007 Caraway wins by 3 round decision +615* vs Not Caraway by 3 round decision
                                                        Great odds you got. I'm tempted to hit this at +500 now for a small bet also. I could see a sub from either fighter though, by leaving a small gap in a scramble.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • UncleChael
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 10-30-13
                                                          • 3979

                                                          #133
                                                          I'm a Bad Mama Jama, Bad Mama Jama.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • xagonzx
                                                            SBR Sharp
                                                            • 04-26-16
                                                            • 283

                                                            #134
                                                            Originally posted by Mxs1332
                                                            So pumped for this card!! Match up heaven... Glorious

                                                            Powerful Joe Silva
                                                            Me too! Great, close fights up and down!
                                                            Comment
                                                            • xagonzx
                                                              SBR Sharp
                                                              • 04-26-16
                                                              • 283

                                                              #135
                                                              Card is about to kick off. I don't have too much invested in this card, a lot of .25 to 1 unit bets. Too many close matchups that i can't get a good read on.

                                                              Good luck all!
                                                              Comment
                                                              • JIBBBY
                                                                SBR Aristocracy
                                                                • 12-10-09
                                                                • 83693

                                                                #136
                                                                Originally posted by xagonzx
                                                                JIBBBY, why Koch? Especially off the long layoff? I have Campbell myself, curious why you placed your bet.
                                                                In a quick nut shell --

                                                                I was actually thinking Koch by decision but he has many ways to win and or finish the fight.. Koch fought and lost to some of the best in the division (Porier and Lamas) and was game in a couple of those fights. Cambell simple is not one of the very best and has not fought to the same level of competition IMO..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Erik-Koch-23390
                                                                Had to go with the dog in this one even with the layoff... He's coming off a very ugly quick KO loss to Cruishank and I think he will bring his best into this rebound fight win or lose..
                                                                Last edited by JIBBBY; 05-29-16, 05:09 PM.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • JIBBBY
                                                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                                                  • 12-10-09
                                                                  • 83693

                                                                  #137
                                                                  Game time!!! Let's do this!!!


                                                                  Milstead for the KO for peanuts..
                                                                  Last edited by JIBBBY; 05-29-16, 05:05 PM.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • xagonzx
                                                                    SBR Sharp
                                                                    • 04-26-16
                                                                    • 283

                                                                    #138
                                                                    Originally posted by JIBBBY
                                                                    I was actually thinking Koch by decision but he has more ways to win and finish the fight.. Koch fought and lost to some of the best in the division (Porier and Lamas) and was game in a couple of those fights. Cambell simple is not one of the very best and has not fought to the same level of competition IMO..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Erik-Koch-23390
                                                                    Had to go with the dog in this one..
                                                                    Fair enough. I like Campbells toughness and volume, also fading Koch off the layoff. Thanks for the insight!
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Unwritten Law
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 10-31-13
                                                                      • 2532

                                                                      #139
                                                                      Gotta take Milstead.
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • xagonzx
                                                                        SBR Sharp
                                                                        • 04-26-16
                                                                        • 283

                                                                        #140
                                                                        Originally posted by Unwritten Law
                                                                        Gotta take Milstead.
                                                                        Odds were too skewed for me for a HW fight. Threw a Saffedeine-Milsread parlay for a tiny bet.
                                                                        Comment
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