UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Garbrandt (May 29, 2016)

**PaperTrail07** · 05-03-16, 11:41 AM

Burkman Felder--WOW Great Card

**GunShard** · 05-03-16, 07:51 PM

I'm considering betting on Barao wins by submission +574

**Hugo de Naranja** · 05-03-16, 08:26 PM

Originally posted by GunShard

I'm considering betting on Barao wins by submission +574

You might also look at Barao inside the distance at (+515) since Barao it's only slightly worse odds than Barao submission and it would also cash if he won by KO or TKO (+385).

**Killer_Demo** · 05-03-16, 09:14 PM

This card is gonna be off the hook. Larkin vs masvidal and sterling vs mr. Tate

**CaptChaos145** · 05-04-16, 05:42 PM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

You might also look at Barao inside the distance at (+515) since Barao it's only slightly worse odds than Barao submission and it would also cash if he won by KO or TKO (+385).

Yeah Gunshard hedge that with ITD for sure. Odds are almost the same.

**CaptChaos145** · 05-04-16, 05:43 PM

Aljo
<<<<<<<

**GunShard** · 05-04-16, 08:19 PM

Originally posted by CaptChaos145

Yeah Gunshard hedge that with ITD for sure. Odds are almost the same.

I'll take that bet instead of the submission. It's much safer with near equal value.

**CaptChaos145** · 05-15-16, 12:22 PM

Curious to see what the McMann/Eye line will be. I think McMann will open around -200

I really like Larkin at -160. I think the line will move away so jump on it. I think the line will move to -200 and above

**Hugo de Naranja** · 05-15-16, 01:53 PM

Originally posted by CaptChaos145

Curious to see what the McMann/Eye line will be. I think McMann will open around -200

I really like Larkin at -160. I think the line will move away so jump on it. I think the line will move to -200 and above

Snatched Larkin at opener. I think he's pretty underrated. Looked good against Tumenov.

**JIBBBY** · 05-15-16, 02:35 PM

^^
I can't believe Jorge Masvidal is the dog against Larkin..

Granted Larkin is looking good in recent fights and he's as tough as nails, but I just think Masvidal is the better technical striker. This one should stay standing and go the distance with Masvidal getting the decision win on points...

Hit this myself for starters..

$200.00

$240.00

Pending

5/29/16 9:30pm UFC Fighting 1402 Jorge Masvidal +120* vs Lorenz Larkin

**MadTiger** · 05-15-16, 02:45 PM

Larkin
Barao

Parlay that.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 05-15-16, 02:47 PM

Originally posted by JIBBBY

^^
I can't believe Jorge Masvidal is the dog against Larkin..

Granted Larkin is looking good in recent fights and he's as tough as nails, but I just think Masvidal is the better technical striker. This one should stay standing and go the distance with Masvidal getting the decision win on points...

Hit this myself for starters..

$200.00

$240.00

Pending

5/29/16 9:30pm UFC Fighting 1402 Jorge Masvidal +120* vs Lorenz Larkin

Any early thoughts on the main event?

**JIBBBY** · 05-15-16, 02:58 PM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

Any early thoughts on the main event?

I see most of these fights going over or going the distance for starters...

Guys like Stevens, Larkin, Masvidal, Felder, Rick Story are all extremely hard to finish.. I'll get to working on this card next week.

I wish we didn't have to wait 2 weeks for this event. Good fights going down on this card!!!

**UncleChael** · 05-15-16, 05:07 PM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

Any early thoughts on the main event?

Take Almedia.

**CaptChaos145** · 05-15-16, 06:04 PM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

Snatched Larkin at opener. I think he's pretty underrated. Looked good against Tumenov.

I've been saying he's the dark horse in the WW division. I just wish he would push to fight more. He's capable of beating just about everyone at 170.

**CaptChaos145** · 05-15-16, 06:08 PM

Originally posted by JIBBBY

^^
I can't believe Jorge Masvidal is the dog against Larkin..

Granted Larkin is looking good in recent fights and he's as tough as nails, but I just think Masvidal is the better technical striker. This one should stay standing and go the distance with Masvidal getting the decision win on points...

Hit this myself for starters..

$200.00

$240.00

Pending

5/29/16 9:30pm UFC Fighting 1402 Jorge Masvidal +120* vs Lorenz Larkin

Larkin has fought most of his career at MW while the "Sucker Punch King" has fought a lot at LW. Larkin will be too fast and dynamic for Masvidal.

**firekillex** · 05-16-16, 01:01 AM

kind of liking jeremy stephens here at +155, barao moving up after having a few tough fights in a row with dillashaw, he has a bunch of fights maybe hes starting to slow down? stephens has huge power and can knock out a horse , so hes always a live dog .. thoughts ??

**JIBBBY** · 05-16-16, 10:48 AM

Originally posted by firekillex

kind of liking jeremy stephens here at +155, barao moving up after having a few tough fights in a row with dillashaw, he has a bunch of fights maybe hes starting to slow down? stephens has huge power and can knock out a horse , so hes always a live dog .. thoughts ??

You just don't know how far Barao has dropped from being his old dominating self.. He has lost twice to TJ Dill and that's it.. Stevens has a history of losing to elite strikers.. The former Barao is an elite striker... http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Renan-Barao-23156

I think you still have to go with Renan Barao and maybe hedge with the lil heathen ko prop..

1102 Renan Barao

-170

1129 Stephens wins by TKO/KO

+335

**JIBBBY** · 05-16-16, 02:43 PM

Originally posted by CaptChaos145

Larkin has fought most of his career at MW while the "Sucker Punch King" has fought a lot at LW. Larkin will be too fast and dynamic for Masvidal.

That matters more with wrestlers and grapplers, not strikers like Masvidal..

This will be a striking affair with Larkin so strength and size won't really matter if there is a noticeable size difference.... Masvidal will not lose speed and technique in his striking.. This fight goes the distance for sure..

**JIBBBY** · 05-16-16, 02:55 PM

Originally posted by UncleChael

Take Almedia.

I'm going with the Knock out artist and undefeated Cody Garb.. Until he loses I'm not betting against him.. He impresses me more with every fight.. Almedia another undefeated KO artist stud.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Thomas-Almeida-87865

One of the 0's will go.. I'm rolling the dice with Cody.. Fight probably goes under too..

1037 Garbrandt wins by TKO/KO

+230

1041 Almeida wins by TKO/KO

-105

**JIBBBY** · 05-16-16, 02:59 PM

Cody

**UncleChael** · 05-16-16, 04:47 PM

Cody
<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/IXp_FdRCBNE" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

**firekillex** · 05-16-16, 05:56 PM

barao is still coming off 2 nasty tkos where he took a lot of punishment to the head, plus that bad weight cut where he hit his head off the tub after cutting a shit load of weight can not be good for the brain.. he his moving up a weight class so maybe that could benefit him but could also make him a lot slower. fights only 3 rds so in round 1 while hes adjusting he could get down early and lose or get knocked to oblivion with stephens power. Other way around i could see barao winning here to but its basically a 50-50 toss up to me and whenever its a toss up i roll with the value

same point as cody no love, that fights basically a toss up 2 undefeated young knockout artists one guys getting put to sleep most likely, so lets shoot with the dog. Almeida has had some stiffer competition lately but garbrant has a great camp, huge power and almeida tends to get clipped in a lot of his fights that ive seen, if he gets clipped by no love i dont see him coming back

do you think the odds for these guys shoots up closer to the event or do you think take the + now and hope it doesnt go bigger

**JIBBBY** · 05-16-16, 06:02 PM

Originally posted by UncleChael

Cody
<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/IXp_FdRCBNE" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

Nice find Unc.. That wasn't even a sanctioned fight.. Cody must have been 20 years old in that fight and just starting out..

Cody got caught cold and on the chin.. Nobody takes that clean shot standing and cold with the first punch connect of the fight.. Almieda would have been put out too..

Like I said I like the under round bets mostly in this fight.. Will role the dice with Cody by KO as well..

Almeida is no joke though I know...

**JIBBBY** · 05-16-16, 06:12 PM

Cody highlights.. He does sit down on his punches.. This vid gets going half way thru...

**UncleChael** · 05-16-16, 06:42 PM

But his boxing isn't that good. Thats why he got put out. You're right though, team Alpha male probably helped him out. But the dude can be koed.

**Rich Benjamins** · 05-17-16, 08:03 AM

Originally posted by CaptChaos145

Curious to see what the McMann/Eye line will be. I think McMann will open around -200

I really like Larkin at -160. I think the line will move away so jump on it. I think the line will move to -200 and above

I agree, I'd take Larkin at better than -200. He's beaten Lawler and has been doing well lately, beating some tough guys and held his own against Tumenov. Whereas Masvidal has been struggling a bit.

**JIBBBY** · 05-17-16, 02:59 PM

I don't know about you guys but I'm in no big hurry to start capping this event since we're still almost 2 weeks away.. I'm still waiting for the event and prelim write ups to come out...

Me no like dis down time

**bjpenn85** · 05-17-16, 03:48 PM

Originally posted by JIBBBY

I don't know about you guys but I'm in no big hurry to start capping this event since we're still almost 2 weeks away.. I'm still waiting for the event and prelim write ups to come out...

Me no like dis down time

Shouldn't trust people that get paid to write, instead of people who get paid to win on fights. They get paid anyways, betters do not.

1. Trust yourself, but mostly if you really looked through all tapes.

2. If theres some red flags, like jumping up weight classes, or missing weight, etc, obviously take that into consideration, but mostly trust yourself.

3. Writers, oddsmakers, peers make mistakes, as often as your do, but even more when they havent really done their homework, dont join them. Truth/devils lies in the details. No one likes a boring fight, but it might earn you a dollar..

4. Kalikas, the official oddsmaker are worse than most bettors at betting, but as good as anyone setting correct odds? Pretty weird, but dont let him get away. (hes premium package has not earned 1 dollar since jan. 2015. <---- wtf, but its true).

**CaptChaos145** · 05-17-16, 05:36 PM

Recently I've been listening to Ariel's show "The MMA HOUR" on MMAFIGHTING. He asks good questions and the fighters are pretty nadid with him. I feel like I get good insight on guys. Now a lot of the interviews are done after the fight but it's still good stuff.

I'm staying away from Garbrandt/Almeida and probably Felder/Burkman. Burman could KO Felder but Paul could use his diversity to keep Josh at bay. Also keep in mind Josh can wrestle and the ground game is Paul's achiles heel. Paul has fought mostly strikers.

**JIBBBY** · 05-17-16, 07:39 PM

Originally posted by bjpenn85

Shouldn't trust people that get paid to write, instead of people who get paid to win on fights. They get paid anyways, betters do not.

1. Trust yourself, but mostly if you really looked through all tapes.

2. If theres some red flags, like jumping up weight classes, or missing weight, etc, obviously take that into consideration, but mostly trust yourself.

3. Writers, oddsmakers, peers make mistakes, as often as your do, but even more when they havent really done their homework, dont join them. Truth/devils lies in the details. No one likes a boring fight, but it might earn you a dollar..

4. Kalikas, the official oddsmaker are worse than most bettors at betting, but as good as anyone setting correct odds? Pretty weird, but dont let him get away. (hes premium package has not earned 1 dollar since jan. 2015. <---- wtf, but its true).

I get current information from all the reads which you can't see in past fight vids.. You can gather streaks and trends off reads.. You can also gather up current camp training info, injury reports, personal problems, etc.. with each fighter off media reads..

I also tend to gravitate to some of the stronger writers that I know have a proven winning record.. Still it's always my own decision which often differs from all the stuff I read and take in from write ups.. It's just something I do that helps with my capping with all fights on every event.

BJ I don't tail anyone in this sport you should know that..

**bjpenn85** · 05-18-16, 02:03 AM

Originally posted by JIBBBY

I get current information from all the reads which you can't see in past fight vids.. You can gather streaks and trends off reads.. You can also gather up current camp training info, injury reports, personal problems, etc.. with each fighter off media reads..

I also tend to gravitate to some of the stronger writers that I know have a proven winning record.. Still it's always my own decision which often differs from all the stuff I read and take in from write ups.. It's just something I do that helps with my capping with all fights on every event.

BJ I don't tail anyone in this sport you should know that..

True. I prefer Zane simon, conor rebusch, jordan breen, and the guys from bookie beatdown arent to bad either.

**GunShard** · 05-18-16, 05:33 AM

Considering betting on a parlay on these three dominating fighters: Almeida, Barao and Sterling.

**omalley21** · 05-18-16, 12:12 PM

Originally posted by GunShard

Considering betting on a parlay on these three dominating fighters: Almeida, Barao and Sterling.

Great call on Gunnar by submission btw. I should've trailed. I like Almeida. Other two IDK.