UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Arlovski (May 08, 2016)

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

Fox Sports 1, 2 p.m. ET
Alistair Overeem vs. Andrei Arlovski
Antonio Silva vs. Stefan Struve
Albert Tumenov vs. Gunnar Nelson
Germaine de Randamie vs. Anna Elmose
Nikita Krylov vs. Francimar Barroso
Karolina Kowalkiewicz vs. Heather Jo Clark

Fox Sports 1, noon ET
Rustam Khabilov vs. Chris Wade
Magnus Cedenblad vs. Garreth McLellan
Nick Hein vs. Jon Tuck
Yan Cabral vs. Reza Madadi

UFC Fight Pass, 10:30 a.m. ET
Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Neil Seery
Leon Edwards vs. Dominic Waters
Ulka Sasaki vs. Willie Gates

[GunShard]

Nelson wins by submission +460

[Deceptakhan]

Nelson wins by submission +460

thats my hedge right there, i still think Tumenov will come out winning

[JIBBBY]

Locky delivers the Event thread once again!!! ... Good man Locky is!!!

Give this man bet points people as he has consistently started event threads for years now on this forum and he doesn't ask or get paid for doing it!!

[JIBBBY]

Nelson wins by submission +460

Not a bad hedge against the Tumenov straight..

<small>UFC Fight Night 87 - Welterweight 3 rounds - Ahoy Rotterdam - Rotterdam, Netherlands - FS1</small>
Sun 5/8		1201 Gunnar Nelson		<input id="radiox" value="M1_2" name="radiox" type="radio">+150	<input id="radiox" value="L1_2" name="radiox" type="radio">o1½ -200
7:00PM		1202 Albert Tumenov		<input id="radiox" value="M2_2" name="radiox" type="radio">-170	<input id="radiox" value="L2_2" name="radiox" type="radio">u1½ +170

[GunShard]

Not a bad hedge against the Tumenov straight..

<small>UFC Fight Night 87 - Welterweight 3 rounds - Ahoy Rotterdam - Rotterdam, Netherlands - FS1</small>
Sun 5/8		1201 Gunnar Nelson		<input id="radiox" value="M1_2" name="radiox" type="radio">+150	<input id="radiox" value="L1_2" name="radiox" type="radio">o1½ -200
7:00PM		1202 Albert Tumenov		<input id="radiox" value="M2_2" name="radiox" type="radio">-170	<input id="radiox" value="L2_2" name="radiox" type="radio">u1½ +170

Sounds like a good idea to hedge with Tumenov straight up.

[PaperTrail07]

I wont bet against Tumenov--that's 4 sure....HOWEVER----170 enh.....youll find a better line than that....just Chill out a bit...

[PaperTrail07]

Struve over BigFoot for sure...

[Hugo de Naranja]

Not a bad hedge against the Tumenov straight..

<small>UFC Fight Night 87 - Welterweight 3 rounds - Ahoy Rotterdam - Rotterdam, Netherlands - FS1</small>
Sun 5/8		1201 Gunnar Nelson		<input id="radiox" value="M1_2" name="radiox" type="radio">+150	<input id="radiox" value="L1_2" name="radiox" type="radio">o1½ -200
7:00PM		1202 Albert Tumenov		<input id="radiox" value="M2_2" name="radiox" type="radio">-170	<input id="radiox" value="L2_2" name="radiox" type="radio">u1½ +170

Tumenov by Decision is value at +254

[PaperTrail07]

Have to agree....

Tumenov by Decision is value at +254

[Hugo de Naranja]

Have to agree....

It opened at +170 and this might be the best price we'll get

[JIBBBY]

^^ Yep I was actually thinking of Turmenov by KO then realized he could win by decision if Gunnar keeps his distance with that karate crap style of his.. That's when I figured Turmenov straight is probably the most logical play even at the -170 odds... Then throw a small hedge just in case on Gunnar by sub at the +460 just to cover the initial straight bet on Turmenov..

I'm pretty sure that's how I'm gonna play it. I'm waiting til next week to place bets on this event though.. Too early in the game as I need to read and see more on what's up with all the fighters.. Besides there are probably 2 or 3 fights that will probably be cancelled due to injury as that seems to be the norm these days with these UFC events...

[PaperTrail07]

Hunt around and you can find a better line on Tum--I bet it ends at -150 too.....I'd wait at -170 JIBBBERS....

^^ Yep I was actually thinking of Turmenov by KO then realized he could win by decision if Gunnar keeps his distance with that karate crap style of his.. That's when I figured Turmenov straight is probably the most logical play even at the -170 odds... Then throw a small hedge just in case on Gunnar by sub at the +460 just to cover the initial straight bet on Turmenov..

I'm pretty sure that's how I'm gonna play it. I'm waiting til next week to place bets on this event though.. Too early in the game as I need to read and see more on what's up with all the fighters.. Besides there are probably 2 or 3 fights that will probably be cancelled due to injury as that seems to be the norm these days with these UFC events...

[UncleChael]

Everyone doubting Big Foot?

[JIBBBY]

Everyone doubting Big Foot?

Yes because he's now the perfect definition of a tomato can.. Look it up in the dictionary and you'll see Big Foots picture under can... Stone Foot is a shell of the fighter he once was on the TRT..

[CaptChaos145]

I don't have confidence in Struve or Big Foot these days. Add in they are both HW's and picking the winner is just guessing IMO.

[JIBBBY]

I don't have confidence in Struve or Big Foot these days. Add in they are both HW's and picking the winner is just guessing IMO.

I don't have any real confidence in any of the heavy weights fighting on this card. They all looked like garbage in recent fights.. Reem maybe has looked the best lately..

[GunShard]

I'll hedge these:
Nelson wins by submission +460
Tumenov wins by 3 round decision +254

[LBfightlife]

I don't have any real confidence in any of the heavy weights fighting on this card. They all looked like garbage in recent fights.. Reem maybe has looked the best lately..

LOL at the bigfoot picture..

And yes regarding the heavy weights, saying Overeem has looked the best lately tells the whole story, and even then it seems like a coin flip. Same with Arlovski, its like: Who's going to show up this time?

Personally I would love to see Arlovski pull out with a KO.. But based on most recent performances, I think the Reem will drop him.

[UncleChael]

Overeem is going to fight for the belt and he's going to take it. You heard it here first. I only post here.

[CaptChaos145]

Overeem is going to fight for the belt and he's going to take it. You heard it here first. I only post here.

Reem has been getting by on natural talent. He doesn't have the chin or the heart to be the champ and he certainly won't keep the belt if he does.

[JIBBBY]

This will be Big Foot Silva last fight in the UFC if and when he gets dropped by the tall goof Struve.. Really might be a fight where both fighters jobs are on the line..

Struve will have the youth and reach going in, and I guess Big Foots best chance is to avoid standing with Struve and try to take him down.. Only problem is Big Foot td's are slow and methodical just like his striking.. Struve sucks as well though, he doesn't fight tall but still should be able to find Silva's chin at some point in this fight and drop him.. Struve by KO reluctantly has to be the call as Big Foots chin is shot to hell..

Struve does get most of his wins by Submission but he's not gonna get the sub here against the Brazilian Silva.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Stefan-Struve-15063

1133 Struve wins by TKO/KO

<input id="editx" name="M1_44" size="4"> +115

The safest play is probably playing Struve for the straight win though at -190.. Slight chance he could fight like a cautious little girl and win by decision.. After all he did beat old Big Nog by decision and couldn't knock him out last year...

<small>UFC Fight Night 87 - Heavyweight 3 rounds - Ahoy Rotterdam - Rotterdam, Netherlands - FS1</small>
Sun 5/8		1101 Antonio Silva		<input id="radiox" value="M1_1" name="radiox" type="radio">+165	<input id="radiox" value="L1_1" name="radiox" type="radio">o1½ +145
4:00PM		1102 Stefan Struve		<input id="radiox" value="M2_1" name="radiox" type="radio">-190	<input id="radiox" value="L2_1" name="radiox" type="radio">u1½ -165

[PaperTrail07]

always have-always will...

Everyone doubting Big Foot?

[UncleChael]

Reem has been getting by on natural talent. He doesn't have the chin or the heart to be the champ and he certainly won't keep the belt if he does.

The talent of being a world grand prix K-1 kick boxer, well yeah. He has a chin and has a heart. I'm confused.

[PaperTrail07]

Reem really shouldn't get hit IF IF IF he is smart....should be able to get in and out while landing bombs....

[UncleChael]

Reem will be champ by the end of 2016 or I won't post for 24 hours.

[GunShard]

Dogs could be winning on the main card: Arlovski, Silva and Nelson.

[UncleChael]

Dogs could be winning on the main card: Arlovski, Silva and Nelson.

[GunShard]

I'm not betting them except for Nelson lol.

[bjpenn85]

Reem has been getting by on natural talent. He doesn't have the chin or the heart to be the champ and he certainly won't keep the belt if he does.

New reem fights like a flyweight. Cub swanson says he always shows up to training to learn shit from him. Pretty fascinating to hear from a guy that has fought since pride. Its actually unheard to now start to develop a new fighting style, he still gets hit, he still does not have cardio and he still does not have heart so that makes a lousy framework for a figher, but hopefully its enough to get by arlovski

[UncleChael]

There you go, fools. I am the best. You bet against me, you lose.

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/ufc/free-picks/ufc-picks-finding-betting-value-overeem-vs-arlovski-a-72056/

[JIBBBY]

I'm not betting them except for Nelson lol.

Gunnar is sooo overrated just like McGregor... UK dudes still haven't caught up to MMA here in Brazil or America... Connor McGregor showed promise for a while but was rudely grounded and exposed in that last fight with Nate.. Nelson the same with Maia.. Bisping getting fed old cans with names and barely winning.. Another over hyped Brit.. Fade them all I say in the future..

Best thing McIrish can do is avoid Nate Diaz which he just did.... He's lucky the UFC booted him off UFC 200 IMO.... Another really bad loss to Nate would have really dropped his stock price and selling power..

They probably match up again in 201 or 202 but McGregor is safe for now just like Rhonda Rousey not fighting Holy Holm immediately after the loss.

[CaptChaos145]

The talent of being a world grand prix K-1 kick boxer, well yeah. He has a chin and has a heart. I'm confused.

Name me a top contender that was almost a 6-1 favorite (at 1 point against Big Foot) and almost a 5-1 favorite (at 1 point against Rothwell) and loses those fights? I'm picking Reem but he's unreliable. He's very talented but relies too much on talent.

[Killer_Demo]

Only play for me is reem.

[UncleChael]

Name me a top contender that was almost a 6-1 favorite (at 1 point against Big Foot) and almost a 5-1 favorite (at 1 point against Rothwell) and loses those fights? I'm picking Reem but he's unreliable. He's very talented but relies too much on talent.

And what idiot would bet him at those odds? He was moving around training camps, changing his body, and also having to get used to fighting top heavyweights. JDS knocks out the champs, but loses to reem. It means nothing, every fight is different. I think Reem is finally ready though.