UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Arlovski (May 08, 2016)

[JIBBBY]

And what idiot would bet him at those odds? He was moving around training camps, changing his body, and also having to get used to fighting top heavyweights. JDS knocks out the champs, but loses to reem. It means nothing, every fight is different. I think Reem is finally ready though.

I'm with ya Unc.. Reem gets this.. AA looked terrified and scared in his last fight against Stipe and I don't see that changing when he's facing possibly even a more dangerous striker in Reem. AA gets knocked out of the box early on in this one I think..

Reem by KO in round one is what I'm thinking.. Maybe "fight doesn't start round 2" also at the +130.

1058 Fight won’t start round 2

<input id="editx" name="M2_27" size="4"> +131

*Note to self - AA hasn't gotten out of the 1st round in 3 of his last 4 fights.. Reem has typically always been just a 1 round fighter.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Andrei-Arlovski-270

[Pimp178]

Im on Albert Tumenov -160 Straight, Over 1.5 rounds, and by Dec.

[Pimp178]

I'm with ya Unc.. Reem gets this.. AA looked terrified and scared in his last fight against Stipe and I don't see that changing when he's facing possibly even a more dangerous striker in Reem. AA gets knocked out of the box early on in this one I think..

Reem by KO in round one is what I'm thinking.. Maybe "fight doesn't start round 2" also at the +130.

1058 Fight won’t start round 2

<input id="editx" name="M2_27" size="4"> +131

*Note to self - AA hasn't gotten out of the 1st round in 3 of his last 4 fights.. Reem has typically always been just a 1 round fighter.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Andrei-Arlovski-270

I might hit that +130 since all it takes its one with heavy weights.

[CaptChaos145]

I think both fighters will be cautious in the 1st or it could end quickly. Who knows.

[JIBBBY]

Im on Albert Tumenov -160 Straight, Over 1.5 rounds, and by Dec.

Can't argue with your logic here Pimpster.. Turmey straight is the safest play but at -160 it's nothing to get really excited about... I'll probably just play the straight myself at $160 to win $100..

[JC2008]

Can't argue with your logic here Pimpster.. Turmey straight is the safest play but at -160 it's nothing to get really excited about... I'll probably just play the straight myself at $160 to win $100..

Hey man... you lead and dominated the last card so we're listening on this one!

Yes AA is a FOSSIL! Overeem gets smashed by dudes alot bigger, i.e. Bigfoot Silva on PED's, etc...

He is the better fighter and alot more rounded than AA. One right hand is all it will take, ala Fedor. Let us all remember that Overeem doesn't exactly have a glass jaw either.. It's alot sturdier than AA's. It's not easy to knock out Overeem.. Bigfoot drugged to the had to land a clean 10+ shots to drop him cold. AA is giving up a massive weight advantage as well...

Not too confident on Struve vs. Bigfoot, myself... I admit I have alot of capping to do. I suggest y'all throw Saul Alvarez in a few parlays, maybe with Reem, etc. -450 against Amir Khan on Saturday night HBO PPV. The UFC is Sunday so...

- Why is Anderson Silva favored over Uriah Hall on Saturday May 14th? The line is already dropping in favour of Hall. I also believe there may be value in Matt Brown over Jibby's homie, Maia @ +250. Maia is awesome but he's also 38 and Brown is no easy out. He may grind him down to a dirty decision victory.

*** On a side-note... does anyone actually think Joanna Jędrzejczyk won't win on July 9th? I also see alot of underdogs on UFC 200 the next night that have solid potential to hit... Browne +250 against inactive Cain? I can very easily see Browne knocking out Cain to make a statement. Gastelum +163 against Hendricks? I can also see that c unt Cormier getting the shady decision win over Jones to set up a rematch for more $$$. Inactivity is a real issue in this sport...

- Thanks, Jibbby.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Hey man... you lead and dominated the last card so we're listening on this one!

Yes AA is a FOSSIL! Overeem gets smashed by dudes alot bigger, i.e. Bigfoot Silva on PED's, etc...

He is the better fighter and alot more rounded than AA. One right hand is all it will take, ala Fedor. Let us all remember that Overeem doesn't exactly have a glass jaw either.. It's alot sturdier than AA's. It's not easy to knock out Overeem.. Bigfoot drugged to the had to land a clean 10+ shots to drop him cold. AA is giving up a massive weight advantage as well...

Not too confident on Struve vs. Bigfoot, myself... I admit I have alot of capping to do. I suggest y'all throw Saul Alvarez in a few parlays, maybe with Reem, etc. -450 against Amir Khan on Saturday night HBO PPV. The UFC is Sunday so...

- Why is Anderson Silva favored over Uriah Hall on Saturday May 14th? The line is already dropping in favour of Hall. I also believe there may be value in Matt Brown over Jibby's homie, Maia @ +250. Maia is awesome but he's also 38 and Brown is no easy out. He may grind him down to a dirty decision victory.

*** On a side-note... does anyone actually think Joanna Jędrzejczyk won't win on July 9th? I also see alot of underdogs on UFC 200 the next night that have solid potential to hit... Browne +250 against inactive Cain? I can very easily see Browne knocking out Cain to make a statement. Gastelum +163 against Hendricks? I can also see that c unt Cormier getting the shady decision win over Jones to set up a rematch for more $$$. Inactivity is a real issue in this sport...

- Thanks, Jibbby.

Totally agree that present day Anderson Silva should not be favored against Hall. I imagine the reasons are his amazing career and the fact that the fight is in Brazil. It's hard for me to bet on a guy who hasn't won a fight cleanly in four years and is still the favorite over a tough opponent. It's not impossible for Anderson to win but I think it's profitable to fade favorites that are on losing streaks.

I like Joanna by late round TKO against Gadelha. Her TDD has improved a lot and the 5 round fight should play to her advantage as well.

I like Browne against Cain at those odds since Cain has dealt with injuries, Browne is a legit fighter, and those are long odds for any heavyweight matchup.

Gastelum over Silva follows the same logic of fading favorites that are on losing streaks.

I think a great bet in Jones/Cormier is "fight goes the distance." Neither of these guys will be able to finish each other. Totally possible that Cormier grinds out a decision as Jones didn't look his best in that last fight.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Browne currently (+280) and Browne ITD (+405)

[CaptChaos145]

Totally agree that present day Anderson Silva should not be favored against Hall. I imagine the reasons are his amazing career and the fact that the fight is in Brazil. It's hard for me to bet on a guy who hasn't won a fight cleanly in four years and is still the favorite over a tough opponent. It's not impossible for Anderson to win but I think it's profitable to fade favorites that are on losing streaks.

I like Joanna by late round TKO against Gadelha. Her TDD has improved a lot and the 5 round fight should play to her advantage as well.

I like Browne against Cain at those odds since Cain has dealt with injuries, Browne is a legit fighter, and those are long odds for any heavyweight matchup.

Gastelum over Silva follows the same logic of fading favorites that are on losing streaks.

I think a great bet in Jones/Cormier is "fight goes the distance." Neither of these guys will be able to finish each other. Totally possible that Cormier grinds out a decision as Jones didn't look his best in that last fight.

I like Joanna by late round stoppage too and the props for those bets payout BIG!

[Hugo de Naranja]

I like Joanna by late round stoppage too and the props for those bets payout BIG!

Yeah totally! I'm loading up now since I think these are the best prices we'll get

[JC2008]

I like Joanna by late round stoppage too and the props for those bets payout BIG!

- Normally I would go with a decision because of the weight class but these vertical smiles hate each other and JJ will go for the stoppage to make another statement, i.e. vs. Jessica Penne.

[UncleChael]

I would be shocked if Cain Valesquez loses to Travis Browne.

[UncleChael]

Joanna is going to get her ass kicked. MIC DROP.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Joanna is going to get her ass kicked. MIC DROP.

What makes you say that?

[JC2008]

I would be shocked if Cain Valesquez loses to Travis Browne.

Why...?

[UncleChael]

Why...?

because that dude wants his fukking belt back!

What makes you say that?

I think of a lot of shit, I believe Brian Stann and I watched the first fight, live.

[CaptChaos145]

because that dude wants his fukking belt back!

I think of a lot of shit, I believe Brian Stann and I watched the first fight, live.

Cain loses if he gets caught with a big shit - otherwise he should do well.

I like Claudia but she fades a bit faster than Joanna. I can see Joanna getting a late round stoppage. Remember this is a 5 rounder. They will be fighting a much longer fight.

[Thrilla]

[Hugo de Naranja]

Cain loses if he gets caught with a big shit - otherwise he should do well.

I like Claudia but she fades a bit faster than Joanna. I can see Joanna getting a late round stoppage. Remember this is a 5 rounder. They will be fighting a much longer fight.

Joanna Scorecards = No Action (-148) might be worth a look since Claudia has no finishes in the UFC

[JIBBBY]

Joanna Scorecards = No Action (-148) might be worth a look since Claudia has no finishes in the UFC

Not a bad call.. Good looking out as that might work...

[HurlSweatPants]

Lines are out, time to start cappin

[JIBBBY]

Lines are out, time to start cappin

Yep but not all the write ups are out just yet. Another day or so should do the trick..

[Pinoy-T-X]

Me like
De Randamine
Cedenblad
Overeem

[Thrilla]

Guys there is a big factor against Overeem. Seems Arlovski is his training partner and their coach decided to coach and corner Arlovski. They will know Overeem's strengths and weaknesses. Check Out video UFC Breakdown: Fight Night Rotterdam - Head to Head

[bjpenn85]

Guys there is a big factor against Overheem. Seems Arlovski is his training partner and their coach decided to coach and corner Arlovski. They will know Overheem's strengths and weaknesses. Check Out video UFC Breakdown: Fight Night Rotterdam - Head to Head

The whole world know what overeems flaws is. No secret there. Gameplan wont matter too much. Both are chinny, both are old, but overeem still develops for some strange reason. Arlovski not so much. He has a little better defence maybe. Overeem has mostly won in his fight until the point were he gets knocked out. Lately he appears to take a shot a little better, even though he actually was dropped twice in the roy nelson fight. But he seems to have the will to fight back. Before he turtled up, he gave in. Its something mental, that has happened to Overeem. Hes agile, moving easy. But obviously he has good fundamentals, so its not like he suddenly become good. But were starting to see hes potential in the ufc.

[JIBBBY]

Guys there is a big factor against Overeem. Seems Arlovski is his training partner and their coach decided to coach and corner Arlovski. They will know Overeem's strengths and weaknesses. Check Out video UFC Breakdown: Fight Night Rotterdam - Head to Head

Seems to me that would just piss off Reem even more. That could effect the O/U though when both fighters know each other as they may fight cautious.. Then again AA came out guns a blazing and dropped Travis Browne in round 1..

I will say this AA did look confident and came out swinging against Travis Browne, both got rocked with AA eventually coming out on top.. Just maybe AA won't be in fear fighting and standing with Reem since they trained together also..

That's about the only thing I can take away from that scenario... Still like Reem...

[PaperTrail07]

Don't OVerthink this card...Here are the Winners:

Fighting - 24202 A. Overeem -220 for Game
Fighting - 24206 S. Struve -190 for Game
Fighting - 24210 A. Tumenov -175 for Game
Fighting - 24218 N. Krylov -150 for Game

[PaperTrail07]

IMO only dogs worth a bet on the card ARE: (and I am NOT betting them

Waters +200
Wade +170


Pretty Confident in the top 4 all 4 worth heavy straight bets and a parlay.....
$100 @ 787.8
Fighting - 24202 A. Overeem -220 for Game
Fighting - 24206 S. Struve -190 for Game
Fighting - 24210 A. Tumenov -175 for Game
Fighting - 24218 N. Krylov -150 for Game
Fighting - 24226 R. Khabilov -190 for Game

[PaperTrail07]

Khabi line is a bit off IMO but I tossed him in there anyways.....he should get it done....

[PaperTrail07]

the motivation of silva is hard to predict....IMO fade or nothing...surprise me

Totally agree that present day Anderson Silva should not be favored against Hall. I imagine the reasons are his amazing career and the fact that the fight is in Brazil. It's hard for me to bet on a guy who hasn't won a fight cleanly in four years and is still the favorite over a tough opponent. It's not impossible for Anderson to win but I think it's profitable to fade favorites that are on losing streaks.

I like Joanna by late round TKO against Gadelha. Her TDD has improved a lot and the 5 round fight should play to her advantage as well.

I like Browne against Cain at those odds since Cain has dealt with injuries, Browne is a legit fighter, and those are long odds for any heavyweight matchup.

Gastelum over Silva follows the same logic of fading favorites that are on losing streaks.

I think a great bet in Jones/Cormier is "fight goes the distance." Neither of these guys will be able to finish each other. Totally possible that Cormier grinds out a decision as Jones didn't look his best in that last fight.

[PaperTrail07]

Tumenov wont go to the ground--wont get there....circle and outbox to a 3 round decision IMO...

[Thrilla]

[mirinquads]

Joanna is going to get her ass kicked. MIC DROP.

You tried this with the 6 last underdogs in Main events and they all got starched. Please stop.

[UncleChael]

You tried this with the 6 last underdogs in Main events and they all got starched. Please stop.

I blame.JoshKnows. Diaz, Wonderboy, Hunt r1, Jones Dec, Bisping Dec were pretty nice though. Too much of.a fan I want to.believe Evans and Rothwell can do it, I still wouldn't change my.bets. maybe i would change for JDS in a parlay instead of rothwell., but all.is.good.
Joanna is -200 right now? Is that not a gift? If she miles ahead of everyone else. Prob less with ITD or however you want to play her.

[PaperTrail07]

Wonderboy....lol...come on everyone was on him.....josh was on connor over diaz LOL.....and SILVA lol.....Bis by DEC was my call lol...JDS was the play too along with the Black Beast....don't see what your trying to say here lol sorry confused...

I blame.JoshKnows. Diaz, Wonderboy, Hunt r1, Jones Dec, Bisping Dec were pretty nice though. Too much of.a fan I want to.believe Evans and Rothwell can do it, I still wouldn't change my.bets. maybe i would change for JDS in a parlay instead of rothwell., but all.is.good.
Joanna is -200 right now? Is that not a gift? If she miles ahead of everyone else. Prob less with ITD or however you want to play her.