Wsof 04-2-16

[JoshKnows46]

Jake Heun +250 Risking $250
David Branch -245 Risking $612.50

[bjpenn85]

Jake heun should have the clear power advantage and be pretty competetive in the striking department. Maybe even a bit better but overall, i tend to think Heun gest taken down along the 15 minutes of the fight and submitted as everyone appears to take him down. There is value in Heun, maybe he should be +200 instead of +250, something like that. It could get very interesting if Magalhaes cant get him down though. Magalhaes just isnt that good part from his bjj-game. How could you not become a top 10 fighter in the ufc if youre a world champion in another martial arts, thats beyond what i can comprehend.

[JoshKnows46]

Added:
Branch -280 $700
Heun +275 $250

[JoshKnows46]

Added:
Abu/Danny under 1.5 +135 risking $150

[hcfightgear]

Looks like Jake Heun spends a lot of time on the ground in his fights. Vinny could get KO'd, but unless that happens very, very quickly I see way too much opportunity there for Magalhaes to get the sub.

[JoshKnows46]

Wrong thread

[JoshKnows46]

Jake heun should have the clear power advantage and be pretty competetive in the striking department. Maybe even a bit better but overall, i tend to think Heun gest taken down along the 15 minutes of the fight and submitted as everyone appears to take him down. There is value in Heun, maybe he should be +200 instead of +250, something like that. It could get very interesting if Magalhaes cant get him down though. Magalhaes just isnt that good part from his bjj-game. How could you not become a top 10 fighter in the ufc if youre a world champion in another martial arts, thats beyond what i can comprehend.

Heun should be -190 favorite, i rarely bet a fight unless i have the person winning over 50% of the time, especially when i'm betting 2 or more units. this is a 3 unit bet, i just added another $400 on him. Vinny's takedowns are trash, he wont be able to get this down, and will be KO'd in the 1st, or early 2nd at the latest, most likely 1st round.

[JoshKnows46]

added:
Heun +200 Risking $400 more ($900 total) (3 unit bet)
Branch -335 Risking $900 more ($2212.50 total) (7.3 unit bet)
Heun/Vinny under 1.5 -140 $300 (1 unit bet)

[mirinquads]

Only way Mag wins is if Heun knows him down and jumps on him, and gets armbarred/kneebarred or some dumb shit. Basically the only way Mag wins fights these days.

[JoshKnows46]

bj penn, you have to understand, i handicap the fights before the lines even come out, so i'm not affected by the number they put next to the fighter, has no barring on my dec for the majority of the fights i bet, i bet on the winner 90% of the time, if there is a gross error on a underodg i have winning 40 percent plus, i make a exception, people see a big favortie of -336, and automatically let that effect their judgement, or a large underdog of +335, and automatically let that affect their judgement, they see others opinions online and automatically let that affect their judgement....i come up with my own lines before the odds are released, and it doesn't matter what number they give me, if its way off from the number i have, i'm betting it, the number they put next to the name, or the thoughts of 25 people coming in my thread telling me i'm wrong for this or that reason, wont affect my opinion, what i see on film, and what i know will happen, because i know there's no one on God's green earth that puts in the time i do at this.

[JoshKnows46]

Only way Mag wins is if Heun knows him down and jumps on him, and gets armbarred/kneebarred or some dumb shit. Basically the only way Mag wins fights these days.

exactly right, heun would have to show terrible fighter IQ and take Vinny down, to have any chance at losing this.

[JoshKnows46]

Added:
Danny Davis Jr. +300 Risking $150 (1/2 unit) (ready to bet this one, have him winning 45%, lines way off, linesmakers didn't put too much time into this card, seems like they just wiki capped this card. he's low level, but so is his opp, worth atleast a 1/2 unit.)

[Ty$]

Vinny should get the sub

[JoshKnows46]

Vinny should get the sub

well yea, thats the plan. lol but how? have you watched his fights?, if you have, you wouldn't make such a foolish comment....how does vinny get him to the ground?

[lokihayze]

Thoughts on abu/ Danny Josh? I had Abu for that, you have Danny yeah?

[JoshKnows46]

Love these wsof cards, i always clean up on these outrageously set lines, it's clear the person that set these lines didn't do even a single hour of film study. Clean sweep tommorrow night, don't miss out men.

Heun wins inside the distance +310 $100
Davis jr. Wins inside the distance +545 $100
Branch wins inside the distance -140 $140

[lokihayze]

You doing a parlay on them josh?

[JoshKnows46]

You doing a parlay on them josh?

No straight bet each. 100 on the two dogs, and 140 on branch

[lokihayze]

You wouldn't bother with a parlay then? Not that confident?

[lokihayze]

Don't know anything about these fighters myself mate so figured I'd lay a parlay down if you're really confident

[JoshKnows46]

Don't know anything about these fighters myself mate so figured I'd lay a parlay down if you're really confident

much more confident in branch and huen, then i am davis jr....davis jr bet is based on abu shouldn't be spotting anyone 3/1 odds, its a bum fight, coin flip fight, so i took the odds. i don't bet parlays too often, you want to bet these straight, not in a parlay. stay away from parlays for 90% of your wagers to be succesful. if you bet these straight, for the amount i bet them based on your unit, you will make a profit by the end of the night...7.3 units on branch, 3 units huen, 0.5 unit davis jr. 0.33 of a unit on each of the fights being finishing inside the distance, 0.5 unit on davis/abu under 1.5 rounds, and 1 unit on vinny/huen under 1.5 rounds...your unit is dependannt on your bankroll.

[lokihayze]

Thanks mate!

[JoshKnows46]

betting both sides of this fight..

Added:
Fitch wins by 5 round dec +250 Risking $100 to win $250
Zeferino scorecards = no action +462 Risking $100 to win $462 (hedge incase he catchs fitch in a sub, which is his only path to victory, this bet is void if it goes the distance, its a safe hedge, because it won't cut into my profit on my fitch dec play.)

[lokihayze]

I can't bet all those side bets in every fight where I bet unfortunately

[JoshKnows46]

I can't bet all those side bets in every fight where I bet unfortunately

Move half your bankroll over to 5Dimes, great book for mma.

[LBfightlife]

Hey josh,

Question for you. When it says "Fight starts in round" that means the action starts then? how is that determined? Seems subjective and hard to measure...

Also for Huen Vs Vinny Mag: **All of Heuns losses via submission.. To way lesser grapplers than vinny. I am going to watch some tape now but.. Do you remember when Huen choked on TUF and got caught with a whitebelt armbar from that preacher dude?

Not saying you're wrong..again I haven't watched tape yet, and hes good value at that line. But I think his ground game and fight IQ might be suspect.

[JIBBBY]

betting both sides of this fight..

Added:
Fitch wins by 5 round dec +250 Risking $100 to win $250
Zeferino scorecards = no action +462 Risking $100 to win $462 (hedge incase he catchs fitch in a sub, which is his only path to victory, this bet is void if it goes the distance, its a safe hedge, because it won't cut into my profit on my fitch dec play.)

Jon Fitch is a grinder and a decision machine and I can't argure the finch by dec play.... Just wish this fight was 3 rounds and not 5.. Hedge Zeferino by sub for sure as he gets most of his wins by sub.. Jon Fitch has been sub'd out a few times recently..

I'm not seeing any props out for this fight though on 5D????

All other prop up on the board for the other fights.. Hope this fight is still a go...

[JoshKnows46]

Hey josh,

Question for you. When it says "Fight starts in round" that means the action starts then? how is that determined? Seems subjective and hard to measure...

Also for Huen Vs Vinny Mag: **All of Heuns losses via submission.. To way lesser grapplers than vinny. I am going to watch some tape now but.. Do you remember when Huen choked on TUF and got caught with a whitebelt armbar from that preacher dude?

Not saying you're wrong..again I haven't watched tape yet, and hes good value at that line. But I think his ground game and fight IQ might be suspect.

If you watch vinny, you'll see he has poor takedowns, and usually only wins because guys take him down, when vinny doesn't get the takedown, he quilts under the pressure and is a fish out of water on the feet, huen is ultra aggressive on the feet, and will pressure vinny from the start and his takedown defense while not great, is good enough to stop vinny's takedowns, huen will only need the first 5 minutes to get the finish. his ground game is definitely suspect, but i don't believe from what i'm seeing, we will see these guys on the ground at anytime in this fight, even if it goes the distance. Its a clear striker vs grappler match, i see the striker imposing his will on the grappler, and vinny not having a answer for it, it would take poor fighter iq for vinny to win, and at 3-1 and 2-1 on my money, im willing to bet huen knows not to attempt a takedown on vinny.

i'm guessing your talking about the fight doesn't start round 2 props, and the fight starts round 2 prop...that simple means that the fight wont be over in the 1st round by finish, that the two fighters will go on to fight in a 2nd round.

[JoshKnows46]

Jon Fitch is a grinder and a decision machine and I can't argure the finch by dec play.... Just wish this fight was 3 rounds and not 5.. Hedge Zeferino by sub for sure as he gets most of his wins by sub.. Jon Fitch has been sub'd out a few times recently..

I'm not seeing any props out for this fight though on 5D????

All other prop up on the board for the other fights.. Hope this fight is still a go...

I'm not sure why 5dimes pulled the props again, they pulled them the first time because they had it as a 3 round fight, i didn't bother to bet it , because i knew it was a championship fight and the wagers would get canceled....they put the props back up as a 5 round fight, my bets are based on a 5 round fight, and they are still pending, i'm not sure why they took the lines down again for that fight.

[LBfightlife]

Trying to get some action on this but 5dimes seems to have no props available for the fitch v zeferino fight. :/ No lines at all for WOSF on 5dimes

[LBfightlife]

If you watch vinny, you'll see he has poor takedowns, and usually only wins because guys take him down, when vinny doesn't get the takedown, he quilts under the pressure and is a fish out of water on the feet, huen is ultra aggressive on the feet, and will pressure vinny from the start and his takedown defense while not great, is good enough to stop vinny's takedowns, huen will only need the first 5 minutes to get the finish. his ground game is definitely suspect, but i don't believe from what i'm seeing, we will see these guys on the ground at anytime in this fight, even if it goes the distance. Its a clear striker vs grappler match, i see the striker imposing his will on the grappler, and vinny not having a answer for it, it would take poor fighter iq for vinny to win, and at 3-1 and 2-1 on my money, im willing to bet huen knows not to attempt a takedown on vinny.

i'm guessing your talking about the fight doesn't start round 2 props, and the fight starts round 2 prop...that simple means that the fight wont be over in the 1st round by finish, that the two fighters will go on to fight in a 2nd round.

Ahh I see, thanks man, yea it seems like Heun really needs this one. He is impressive on the feet. I just hope he doesnt lose his sh*t again when he rocks him and follows him to the ground and get subbed out agian.

[Ty$]

I don't see Heun winning this... Saw him fight live a couple years ago against a bum and barely won. Vin by sub homies

[Droz37]

Hey Josh, can you explain how the "scorecards = no action" works, I've read some explanations online but they didn't really clarify how it works.

[Pimp178]

Hey Josh, can you explain how the "scorecards = no action" works, I've read some explanations online but they didn't really clarify how it works.

Simple, if the fight goes the distance the BET is off, because is going to the score cards, meaning if they go to the cards BET is VOIDED (you get what you put on it back). If the Fight does not go the distance (early stoppage, K.O, T.K.O, Submission) the BET it's on.

[bjpenn85]

I don't see Heun winning this... Saw him fight live a couple years ago against a bum and barely won. Vin by sub homies

It would def make heun more legit if he looked fantastic when you saw him, but people can change. What was your point, that he hasnt changed since then?