JoshKnows Ufc fn 85: Hunt vs Mir

[GigaOuts]

Josh for president! You betting average monthly pay check on 1 fight, that is crazy. What is your bankroll online if you don't mind me asking?

[CaptChaos145]

Ok, bottom feeder is a overexagerration, I just don't like him.still it's a great matchup for lombard and he gassed. Magny is a better striker then shields burkman tim, and okami. Lombard will likely stand with him in his home coming, as he often chooses to do. Do you believe lombard can outstrike magny or do u believe he's gonna try to grapple fuk him?

No I think Lombard will stalk Magny and land power shots. Magny has been hit by much lesser opponents. When Lombard hurts you he swarms. Don't be surprised if Magny gets overwhelmed in this fight. Yes he has the reach, height, better technical striking, footwork etc... but we can make that case for a lot of fighters against Lombard. Lombard lands a lot more than you think and he lands hard shots. If they clinch Magny will have nothing for Hector. Magny is facing his most dangerous opponent. I don't know why you don't like Lombard. The due is 34-4 and has done very well over his career. He has a very muscular body type. He doesn't look that way just cause he was on juice. A lot of fighters weer on the juice. My guess is he will look pretty much the same as always come fight night.

[JoshKnows46]

No I think Lombard will stalk Magny and land power shots. Magny has been hit by much lesser opponents. When Lombard hurts you he swarms. Don't be surprised if Magny gets overwhelmed in this fight. Yes he has the reach, height, better technical striking, footwork etc... but we can make that case for a lot of fighters against Lombard. Lombard lands a lot more than you think and he lands hard shots. If they clinch Magny will have nothing for Hector. Magny is facing his most dangerous opponent. I don't know why you don't like Lombard. The due is 34-4 and has done very well over his career. He has a very muscular body type. He doesn't look that way just cause he was on juice. A lot of fighters weer on the juice. My guess is he will look pretty much the same as always come fight night.

I've seen pictures of him, he looks about the same, but his body will not perform the same for reasons I mentioned. I love lombard, I said I don't like jake shields, I've cashed out 100 percent of the time when betting his fights, and I enjoy the way he fights, now someone like Ross Pearson I hate, I can't pick his fights to save my life.

Magny has excellent cardio, Which accounts for why he hasn't been kod since his TUF days, he has excellent recovery time as a result, I wouldn't mind seeing the old ex juicer use up his little bit of energy...

[JoshKnows46]

@Hectorlombard is his instagram, but you'll have to add him cus it's set to private. If you want to see what he looks like. He's training with tall guys with reach, he might be slightly smaller, but still cut as ever.

[AliMMA]

@Hectorlombard is his instagram, but you'll have to add him cus it's set to private. If you want to see what he looks like. He's training with tall guys with reach, he might be slightly smaller, but still cut as ever.

Still confident in Magny Josh? Also are you betting him straight or dec, tko...

[JoshKnows46]

Still confident in Magny Josh? Also are you betting him straight or dec, tko...

10 units straight, 2 units on magny points handicap +3.5, 1/6th of a unit on 3rd round finish, and 1/3rd of a unit on magny dec.

[JIBBBY]

Hedge Josh.. Odds are fat enough don't get greedy... You can still win playing both ways with these odds below...

$100.00

$345.00

Pending

3/19/16 11:59pm MMA Props Fighting 1129 Lombard wins by TKO/KO +345* <small>vs</small> Any other result

Can even play it safer with this just in case he gets Magny down and sinks in something for the sub win -

1105 Lombard wins inside distance

<input id="editx" name="M1_59" size="4"> +250

[All_Or_Nothing]

Hey Josh. Do you have any idea why the line on Jouban has moved from -475 to -460? I see Jouban winning this match at 85%. Is Jouban injured? Not only is Jouban going to win he will probably win via TKO.

[Ultimatemeatball]

Lombard and Nakai lines for the favorite have flip flopped. Nakai 16-1 mma record 5 foot 1 height going up against a 7-6 5 foot 9 inch gal. Both fights should be interesting. I think Lombard realizes his career is at a cross-roads in this fight and see value in him fighting in front of his quasi-hometown crowd. I agree w/ Jibby's hedging advice.

[CaptChaos145]

Hey Josh. Do you have any idea why the line on Jouban has moved from -475 to -460? I see Jouban winning this match at 85%. Is Jouban injured? Not only is Jouban going to win he will probably win via TKO.

Seriously?

[mirinquads]

Seriously?

Unreal, lol

[JoshKnows46]

Hey Josh. Do you have any idea why the line on Jouban has moved from -475 to -460? I see Jouban winning this match at 85%. Is Jouban injured? Not only is Jouban going to win he will probably win via TKO.

Someone probable put 25 bucks on the underdog, mma doesn't draw as much action as other major sports, so it doesnt take much to move lines, expecially still a week out. That's not much of a move. If you think Jouban smashes him early, just bet the under at 1/4th the price.

[JIBBBY]

I like Jouban in this one already but he could win by decision. Then again Jouban is coming off a bad loss so I expect a strong effort from him in this fight..

Brendan Orielly looks like a bum to me with only 7 pro fights, 1-1 in the UFC though. How is this guy even in the UFC this quickly coming from Fury come to think of it? He fought a bunch of cans in Fury and Reincarnation (his opponents pro records are all crap)... The odds reflect this as well..

<small>UFC Fight Night 85 - Welterweight 3 rounds - Brisbane Entertainment Centre - Brisbane, Australia - FS1</small>
Sat 3/19		1601 Brendan O'Reilly		<input id="editx" name="M1_6" size="4"> +400	<input id="editx" name="L1_6" size="4"> o1½ +100
9:30PM		1602 Alan Jouban		<input id="editx" name="M2_6" size="4"> -500	<input id="editx" name="L2_6" size="4"> u1½ -120

I haven't capped this fight yet but this is what I'm seeing just looking at the Sherdog records and odds.. I know Alan Jouban well but not Brendan OReilly auto parts..

http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Brendan-OReilly-52633

[JoshKnows46]

Added:
Te huna wins in round 1 +120 $100
Case wins in round 3 +1550 $100
Case wins in round 2 +800 $50
Case no scorecards -107 $107
Junior wins by tko/ko +157 $100

[JoshKnows46]

I now have over 12 units invested in magny, and feel im over exposed to a biased dec..I hate hedging because it costs me profit at least 80% of the time when i do it, but i'm hedging with lombard for a little under a unit and putting a unit on it going the distance, weather its because its in australia or becuase i've heard to many opinions against my bet, i've grown worrisome of a robbery dec, where lombard is less active and less effective in striking, but home cooking gives him the split based on pressure. he only has one clear way to victory in my opinion, and that's by dec, as i feel this fight goes the distance 93% of the time, so i went with...

added:
Lombard wins by dec +310 $250 to win $775
Fight goes 3 round distance -155 $310 to win $200

[UncleChael]

I now have over 12 units invested in magny, and feel im over exposed to a biased dec..I hate hedging because it costs me profit at least 80% of the time when i do it, but i'm hedging with lombard for a little under a unit and putting a unit on it going the distance, weather its because its in australia or becuase i've heard to many opinions against my bet, i've grown worrisome of a robbery dec, where lombard is less active and less effective in striking, but home cooking gives him the split based on pressure. he only has one clear way to victory in my opinion, and that's by dec, as i feel this fight goes the distance 93% of the time, so i went with...

added:
Lombard wins by dec +310 $250 to win $775
Fight goes 3 round distance -155 $310 to win $200

Smart man.

[bjpenn85]

I now have over 12 units invested in magny, and feel im over exposed to a biased dec..I hate hedging because it costs me profit at least 80% of the time when i do it, but i'm hedging with lombard for a little under a unit and putting a unit on it going the distance, weather its because its in australia or becuase i've heard to many opinions against my bet, i've grown worrisome of a robbery dec, where lombard is less active and less effective in striking, but home cooking gives him the split based on pressure. he only has one clear way to victory in my opinion, and that's by dec, as i feel this fight goes the distance 93% of the time, so i went with...

added:
Lombard wins by dec +310 $250 to win $775
Fight goes 3 round distance -155 $310 to win $200

Smart, were in robbery land now. All Australians may have a shot here.

[JoshKnows46]

Smart, were in robbery land now. All Australians may have a shot here.

yup, case should finish mathews though,much better on the feet, and much much better on the ground, so no worries with that one. getting a bad gut feeling about the lombard fight however, based on their styles of fighting, think it will be clear magny won 3, and we could still get robbed, hopefully not. Australian judges are terrible!, but wont make excuses on this one, as i knew that when i bet it, magny just needs to finished the gassed juice head in the 3rd and we wont have to worry about that. he struggled with burkman, and gassed against shields, i believe magny can give him his first lose inside the distance, if he gets that gassed again.

[bjpenn85]

Added:
Johnny Case -115 $600 ($1200 total now)
Johnny Case inside the distance +325 $300 to win $975

Like all of the picks so far. Youre spot on here.

[JoshKnows46]

Like all of the picks so far. Youre spot on here.

good to hear man, respect your opinion highly. feel good about this card.

[bjpenn85]

Hunt -175/-180 risking $3000
Magny +110/+115 risking $3000
Hunt/mir starts round 2 -135 risking $250
Hunt/mir starts round 3 +183 risking $250
Hunt/mir starts round 4 +340 risking $100
Hunt/mir starts round 5 +473 risking $50
Hunt wins by unanimous dec +2000 risking $50
Hunt wins by majority/split dec +2950 risking $50

But, as i have commented before. Mark hunt has steller takedowns defence, ok, but how does he defend off submissions like armlock,keylocks and armbars when laying on his back? Not very well. So while Mark Hunt is going to win this fight at least the first three rounds, although im not sure he can go this 5 rounder he did against silva he should have the advantage standing up. But if Frank Mir or Møøør as brock once said, he cant defend submissions relating to his arms such as keylocks, kimura etc which is fakkin Frank Mirs bread and butter, so if you consider hedging, go full throttle on Frank Mir sub. Compare to your other bets which is perfect, this is def the glaring hole in this events budget for you my man. Obivously some of the others fight may go to decision like magny and matthews and you never know with the judges, but please at lease consider frank mir sub as an important hedge.

[JoshKnows46]

But, as i have commented before. Mark hunt has steller takedowns defence, ok, but how does he defend off submissions like armlock,keylocks and armbars when laying on his back? Not very well. So while Mark Hunt is going to win this fight at least the first three rounds, although im not sure he can go this 5 rounder he did against silva he should have the advantage standing up. But if Frank Mir or Møøør as brock once said, he cant defend submissions relating to his arms such as keylocks, kimura etc which is fakkin Frank Mirs bread and butter, so if you consider hedging, go full throttle on Frank Mir sub. Compare to your other bets which is perfect, this is def the glaring hole in this events budget for you my man. Obivously some of the others fight may go to decision like magny and matthews and you never know with the judges, but please at lease consider frank mir sub as an important hedge.

i agree thats his only path to victory, but if you watched him in his last fight he was gassed against arlowki, i really dont think he'd be able to take hunt down, and i dont think hunts dead in the water and wont just pop right back up if he does...but if i do hedge, thats def the way to go, i just hate hedging with a passion, lol so its hard for me to do, but i have thought about it, and will continue to think about if its worth it for me.

[bjpenn85]

Just look at jibbys evidence right here www.sherdog.com

- Alistair won by keylock
- Mousasi by armbar
- MCorcle by straight armbar
- And stipe..well he was very close to hitting keylock, he was just seconds away from getting it, AND how do you think frank mir would have executed that keylock give the same opportunity?

One really good camp is enough if you practice heavily on one move if you have good fundamentals. Alan Belcher prepared as a motherfakker on heel hooks against palhares and was successful. But he was young and was insanely well prepared as everyone said "belcher, you need to know one move against this guy". But in this fight how sure are you Mark Hunt will do the same?

Are you willing to take the chance of 3000 dollars on a fat 42 year old who we dont know having practiced enough armbar/keylock defence?

Frank Mir got 25 minutes to get one, and he has already been out saying this is a classic striker vs grappler fight, we all know what the gameplane is. Is def a point to consider.

[bjpenn85]

http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Mark-Hunt-10668

[JoshKnows46]

Just look at jibbys evidence right here www.sherdog.com

- Alistair won by keylock
- Mousasi by armbar
- MCorcle by straight armbar
- And stipe..well he was very close to hitting keylock, he was just seconds away from getting it, AND how do you think frank mir would have executed that keylock give the same opportunity?

One really good camp is enough if you practice heavily on one move if you have good fundamentals. Alan Belcher prepared as a motherfakker on heel hooks against palhares and was successful. But he was young and was insanely well prepared as everyone said "belcher, you need to know one move against this guy". But in this fight how sure are you Mark Hunt will do the same?

Are you willing to take the chance of 3000 dollars on a fat 42 year old who we dont know having practiced enough armbar/keylock defence?

Frank Mir got 25 minutes to get one, and he has already been out saying this is a classic striker vs grappler fight, we all know what the gameplane is. Is def a point to consider.

all great points, thanks man.

[bjpenn85]

i agree thats his only path to victory, but if you watched him in his last fight he was gassed against arlowki, i really dont think he'd be able to take hunt down, and i dont think hunts dead in the water and wont just pop right back up if he does...but if i do hedge, thats def the way to go, i just hate hedging with a passion, lol so its hard for me to do, but i have thought about it, and will continue to think about if its worth it for me.

Mark Hunt doesnt have good takedown defence against single legs. Double legs, absolutely! What does Frank Mir use? Single leg, so thats a problem for us. Were only talkin one taking down, and it may be over. If this was a fight against a wrestler with not enough striking to set the takedowns up, it would have been different, and mir is that guy that doesnt have good takedown technique, blending in striking and wrestling, up until the arlowski fight. Then he partially did had some success, so im torn here. Im not sure you should be THAAAT confident and disregard Mirs takedowns, he might get one, and that could be all she wrote. Sometimes you should skip hedging and sometimes you should. I like to hedge when youre in against specialist. Frank mir is def a specialist with and ok striking to set things up, thats a risk factor in a 25 minute fight.

[JoshKnows46]

added:
mir wins by sub +350 risking $250 to win $875 (hedge)

[JoshKnows46]

Mark Hunt doesnt have good takedown defence against single legs. Double legs, absolutely! What does Frank Mir use? Single leg, so thats a problem for us. Were only talkin one taking down, and it may be over. If this was a fight against a wrestler with not enough striking to set the takedowns up, it would have been different, and mir is that guy that doesnt have good takedown technique, blending in striking and wrestling, up until the arlowski fight. Then he partially did had some success, so im torn here. Im not sure you should be THAAAT confident and disregard Mirs takedowns, he might get one, and that could be all she wrote. Sometimes you should skip hedging and sometimes you should. I like to hedge when youre in against specialist. Frank mir is def a specialist with and ok striking to set things up, thats a risk factor in a 25 minute fight.

i added the hedge, but mir doesnt go for takedowns often, and hasn't subbed anyone in a long time, but its a known safety net in this fight at a good number, with no other paths to victory, its the smart play to make.

[bjpenn85]

Hopefully this doesnt end up with me talking you into Mir sub, and then Frank Mir gets a hometown decision after not attempting one single leg takedown haha.

[mirinquads]

Would be strange for Mir to win a hometown decision, when they are in Hunts home town.

[JoshKnows46]

Hopefully this doesnt end up with me talking you into Mir sub, and then Frank Mir gets a hometown decision after not attempting one single leg takedown haha.

thats hunts home, not mirs, so hometown dec is all ours lol

[bjpenn85]

thats hunts home, not mirs, so hometown dec is all ours lol

Haha true. Meant faulty dec.

Anyway, usually when we loose on underdogs, rarely do they win in spectacular fashion in an area their not good at.

- Rousey, loses by lousey striking
- Holm loses by horrible sub decence
- Conor loses by sub
- CB dolloway getting Koed after exposing his weak chin.

And the list goes on...

So for future hedging, sticking to the opponents best area and obviously your "winner"s weakest area should come true. Freak Koes doesnt happen a lot during a whole year of betting so when thats happening, you should just brush it off as nothing happened. If youre pick have several ways of loosing, the you shouldnt bet at all.

[mirinquads]

yup, case should finish mathews though,much better on the feet, and much much better on the ground, so no worries with that one. getting a bad gut feeling about the lombard fight however, based on their styles of fighting, think it will be clear magny won 3, and we could still get robbed, hopefully not. Australian judges are terrible!, but wont make excuses on this one, as i knew that when i bet it, magny just needs to finished the gassed juice head in the 3rd and we wont have to worry about that. he struggled with burkman, and gassed against shields, i believe magny can give him his first lose inside the distance, if he gets that gassed again.

Yes. Matthews is clumsy and not very good, although he is powerful, and may be improved as he's young. I think Case No scorecards is a crazy line here.

[AliMMA]

Yes. Matthews is clumsy and not very good, although he is powerful, and may be improved as he's young. I think Case No scorecards is a crazy line here.

Hey Mirim, how much do you usually bet on an average ufc event?

[CaptChaos145]

Mir/Hunt scares me. I've been going back and forth. Whoever can implement their game plan will win obviously. Hunt is old now and his preparation has always been questionable BUT he is fighting at home so he should be up for this fight. Mir MUST get this fight to the ground. He can't stand and trade with Hunt - that's just suicide. Even if Mir lands some shots I don't see them hurting Hunt. The problem with Mir is he rarely shoots. However I think he will make some deliberate attempts for TD's in the fight. Hunt is the most dangerous stand up fighter he has ever faced.