JoshKnows Ufc fn 85: Hunt vs Mir

[JIBBBY]

Lombard grapple humping Magny is a slight concern like Capt Chaos mentioned, much like Demian Maia did to Magny.. Capt Chaos does have point..

I thought about that but like Josh says Lombard relies on his stand up more and has extreme confidence in his striking.. I also don't think Hector has the take downs or Jits that Demian Maia has either. Hector is a big body and I think Magny will be able to move around and avoid the clinch and TD's of Hector.. As the fight continues Hector will become more labored as well..

It's all about that 1st round IMO going one way or the other in this fight. Live betting is an option after that as well..

If Hector does lay and pray to decision I get blown up with my bets.. Really hoping that doesn't happen and I don't think it will.. I think Magny learned his lesson from the DM fight..

Hector hasn't pulled off a submission win in over 5 years either.. So the sub win isn't likely with Magny.. The KO is more likely to happen if anything as Lombard has 19 kos in his 34 wins....http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Hector-Lombard-11292

[JoshKnows46]

While it is true that Lombard has better takedown defense than Kelvin. I believe kelvin's takedowns are better. Lombard was able to look impressive vs Shields because Shields was closing the distance for Hector & trying to take Hector down. Big mistake! Hector was able to easily use judo trips & toss Jake to the ground like a child. I don't think Neil will even try to take Hector down until Hector is tired. As far as PED's go. Hector would be absolutely insane to risk getting caught again. At his advanced age a 2 or 3 year penalty would effectively end his career.

100 percent, agree with all of what u just said.

[JoshKnows46]

Lombard grapple humping Magny is a slight concern like Capt Chaos mentioned, much like Demian Maia did to Magny.. Capt Chaos does have point..

I thought about that but like Josh says Lombard relies on his stand up more and has extreme confidence in his striking.. I also don't think Hector has the take downs or Jits that Demian Maia has either. Hector is a big body and I think Magny will be able to move around and avoid the clinch and TD's of Hector.. As the fight continues Hector will become more labored as well..

It's all about that 1st round IMO going one way or the other in this fight. Live betting is an option after that as well..

If Hector does lay and pray to decision I get blown up with my bets.. Really hoping that doesn't happen and I don't think it will.. I think Magny learned his lesson from the DM fight..

Hector hasn't pulled off a submission win in over 5 years either.. So the sub win isn't likely with Magny.. The KO is more likely to happen if anything as Lombard has 19 kos in his 34 wins....http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Hector-Lombard-11292

Agree with all this, exept dec is more likely for Lombard then ko, 2 percent chance at a ko isn't worth a hedge, you should make ur hedge On dec, also extremely unlikely but I'd give him 10 percent chance at a dec. Reach, youth, height, quickness, footwork, fighter iq, against poor footwork and tentive slow standup, flat footed arm punching ex juicing old man standup lol massive striking advantage for magny, who hasn't tasted a ko for a long time.

[CaptChaos145]

To add lombard is coming off over a year layoff, against a fighter 10 years younger, against a fighter that recently fought just 4 months ago, in a 5 ROUND FIGHT, And out wrestled a better wrestler than lombard is...you are completly lost with this matchup, and you will lose. You bet against me, you lose, it's that simple.

Josh you're getting a bit cocky. For that I will post your posts when Maia fought Magny and I will post mine. Saying I'm completely lost with this matchup is your opinion but the FACT is YOU were completely lost when Maia fought Magny. I wasn't. I didn't just pick Maia. I told everyone how he would do it and he did exactly that.

[JIBBBY]

Josh you're getting a bit cocky. For that I will post your posts when Maia fought Magny and I will post mine. Saying I'm completely lost with this matchup is your opinion but the FACT is YOU were completely lost when Maia fought Magny. I wasn't. I didn't just pick Maia. I told everyone how he would do it and he did exactly that.

I loaded up on Maia against Magny and called that as well.. I even changed my avatar pic after that win and haven't changed it since....

Hector isn't Maia and this is a different fight..

[CaptChaos145]

Maia vs Magny:

MY Posts:
Post #1: Line is moving away from Maia. Jump on him while you can.
I'm not sure why anyone would stay away from Maia in this fight. He's only lost to elite level fighters...
Rory
Jake (split dec)
Weidman
Munoz
Anderson
Marquart
5 of those 6 were/are either champs or fought for the belt.
Jake could not get up when Maia took his down. You think Magny can?
get ready to watch a clinic!

Post #2: I don't see how Magny wins. Maia will press him against the cage and trip him to the ground. Maia has some of the best trip takedowns along the cage. He did it to Jake, Story, Fitch, Munoz, Chael, etc... yes Maia is older now but he is still good and he doesn't have a ton of wear and tear on him. Magny is out of his league in this 1.

Post #3:You're right about Magny's progression but he's not doing it against top guys. Maia has fought much stiffer comp.

Post #4: I tried to push Maia. Magny was way out of his league in this one. Maia's top game is ridiculously smooth.

JoshKnows posts:
Post#1: Magny wins because he's well rounded, good everywhere. Has a huge reach and cardio advantage, and he'll keep the less athletic Maia on end of his punches all night, excellent at using his reach and he'll have a 8 inch reach advantage, he's at the peak of his career, Maia is on the downslide of his. Magny will wear his ass out with his footwork and volume of punches. Maia's tough, so he'll make it the distance. I give Maia 35% chance at getting a single takedown in the first. And 10% in the 2nd or later, don't be surprised to see him slowing down in the 2nd round. Takedowns won't come as easy as your thinking, and I believe your underestimating Magnys improvements . I have it Magny -180, wrong guy is favored. If you want to lay juice on this fighT, just bet over 2.5 rounds instead of Maia, decision is his only path to victory anyway.Just one mans opinion, gl cap

Post #2: I personally believe Magny is now currently the stiffer comp you speak off. Just my opinion, I wish the best with maiA.

[JoshKnows46]

Josh you're getting a bit cocky. For that I will post your posts when Maia fought Magny and I will post mine. Saying I'm completely lost with this matchup is your opinion but the FACT is YOU were completely lost when Maia fought Magny. I wasn't. I didn't just pick Maia. I told everyone how he would do it and he did exactly that.

Maia fight has nothing to do with this fight dumby, I've made so much money on magny over the years he's constantly the underdog, and he constantly gets me paid, and I'm also 100 percent betting for or against lombard, I'm cocky because I'm the best

[JoshKnows46]

I loaded up on Maia against Magny and called that as well.. I even changed my avatar pic after that win and haven't changed it since....

Hector isn't Maia and this is a different fight..

Great call on that one jibs, I saw value in the underdog odds and got smokeddd

[JoshKnows46]

Maia vs Magny:

MY Posts:
Post #1: Line is moving away from Maia. Jump on him while you can.
I'm not sure why anyone would stay away from Maia in this fight. He's only lost to elite level fighters...
Rory
Jake (split dec)
Weidman
Munoz
Anderson
Marquart
5 of those 6 were/are either champs or fought for the belt.
Jake could not get up when Maia took his down. You think Magny can?
get ready to watch a clinic!

Post #2: I don't see how Magny wins. Maia will press him against the cage and trip him to the ground. Maia has some of the best trip takedowns along the cage. He did it to Jake, Story, Fitch, Munoz, Chael, etc... yes Maia is older now but he is still good and he doesn't have a ton of wear and tear on him. Magny is out of his league in this 1.

Post #3:You're right about Magny's progression but he's not doing it against top guys. Maia has fought much stiffer comp.

Post #4: I tried to push Maia. Magny was way out of his league in this one. Maia's top game is ridiculously smooth.

JoshKnows posts:
Post#1: Magny wins because he's well rounded, good everywhere. Has a huge reach and cardio advantage, and he'll keep the less athletic Maia on end of his punches all night, excellent at using his reach and he'll have a 8 inch reach advantage, he's at the peak of his career, Maia is on the downslide of his. Magny will wear his ass out with his footwork and volume of punches. Maia's tough, so he'll make it the distance. I give Maia 35% chance at getting a single takedown in the first. And 10% in the 2nd or later, don't be surprised to see him slowing down in the 2nd round. Takedowns won't come as easy as your thinking, and I believe your underestimating Magnys improvements . I have it Magny -180, wrong guy is favored. If you want to lay juice on this fighT, just bet over 2.5 rounds instead of Maia, decision is his only path to victory anyway.Just one mans opinion, gl cap

Post #2: I personally believe Magny is now currently the stiffer comp you speak off. Just my opinion, I wish the best with maiA.

BTW I won $1,274 on this card as a whole, and I only risked 3.3 units $1000 on magny....there's a big diffrence in my confidence in said bet, from risking 3.3 units and risking 10 units..I'm the best at what I do, if you bet against me in the long run, you lose, no ifs, ands, or buts about it, it's not a profitable thing to do, you'll be shown and hopefully you learn from this experience and it keeps you from making this mistake again.

[TheCalculator]

I'm also BIG on Magny and Hunt.

Mange's range, jab and movement should make it a long night for Lombard. I don't see Magny grappling with him. The wise fight strategy is to stick and move his way to victory. Lombard might initiate the grappling attacks, but I think Magny has the cardio to outlast.

Mir's only path to victory is to take Hunt down and submit him. I don't see the takedowns happening.

[Thor4140]

Maia fight has nothing to do with this fight dumby, I've made so much money on magny over the years he's constantly the underdog, and he constantly gets me paid, and I'm also 100 percent betting for or against lombard, I'm cocky because I'm the best

Yeah u are the best. Ur the big main event guy who lost both main events last Saturday. Ur one bad card away from being an average mma handicapper. Being that both your picks Holly and Conner got sub it took away all those excuses u would normally use if it went to decisions. Thank goodness we didn't have to hear that nonsense.

[JoshKnows46]

Yeah u are the best. Ur the big main event guy who lost both main events last Saturday. Ur one bad card away from being an average mma handicapper. Being that both your picks Holly and Conner got sub it took away all those excuses u would normally use if it went to decisions. Thank goodness we didn't have to hear that nonsense.

I won money, who cares what fights I lost, i hit all my big bets, everyone that tailed me, won money, I had 4 people thanking me once again through pm on another great event, I had a total of 1.5 units on holly, and 3.3 units on mcgregor, small bets and I didn't bet any on holly ml, hit 2.3 units on mcgregor fight going over 1 round, on both those fights combined I lost very little, so go fuk yourself, you dumb insignificant little bit.ch. I did better then 90 percent of handicappers on that event, it can't be a home run everytime. I knew both lines were overvalued, that's why I bet them so small, I'm the king of this game boy,so watch ur mouth, and don't forget it.

[Celtics08]

Josh please don't hear these idiots, you are the boss! keep it up!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[JIBBBY]

I'm also BIG on Hunt.

Mir's only path to victory is to take Hunt down and submit him. I don't see the takedowns happening.

Really Calculator?.. Hunt is a 100 years old and Mir is a better boxer.. Hunt can't win this fight except by early KO and only if Mir gets careless and starts trading.. Your money is toast bud..

I can't believe you and Josh are on the 42 year old Mark Hunt and betting large to boot!! Mark Hunt is a fat old slob that struggles hard to just make weight these days.. The one thing going for Frank Mir is he is a Cerebral fighter and will fight to his strengths in this fight.. He will out strike Mark Hunt for starters and he actually has 3 ways to win..

1) Mir can out strike and out point Mark Hunt to a decision win
2) Mir can possibly take down a tired Mark Hunt late and sub his fat asss.
3) Mir can also possibly knock out Mark Hunt with his fading chin..

I smell a bad loss coming up for you and Josh in this one.. Sorry I had to post this..

[JoshKnows46]

Really Calculator?.. Hunt is a 100 years old and Mir is a better boxer.. Hunt can't win this fight except by early KO and only if Mir gets careless and starts trading.. Your money is toast bud..

I can't believe you and Josh are on the 42 year old Mark Hunt and betting large to boot!! Mark Hunt is a fat old slob that struggles hard to just make weight these days.. The one thing going for Frank Mir is he is a Cerebral fighter and will fight to his strengths in this fight.. He will out strike Mark Hunt for starters and he actually has 3 ways to win..

1) Mir can out strike and out point Mark Hunt to a decision win
2) Mir can possibly take down a tired Mark Hunt late and sub his fat asss.
3) Mir can also possibly knock out Mark Hunt with his fading chin..

I smell a bad loss coming up for you and Josh in this one.. Sorry I had to post this..

No reason to be sorry jibs, you're only making yourself look amatuer with that assessment, u told me the midget latifi would get knocked out, you told me nunes would get out pointed to a dec, and that there was no way mcgregor diaz would get out the first round last event, all in the same post, it was a cluster fuk of fail that post

I know you did great last card, but everytime you say I'm gonna lose, I win, we know how this story ends. And I'm sorry your gonna lose money on this bet, but a wide grin just came across my face, makes me so confident when you question me, exspecially on a main event, dont believe youve hit on a main event the last 6 months, i know because everytime you have the same bet as me, i lose, but I do hope you hit the rest of your card.

[All_Or_Nothing]

No reason to be sorry jibs, you're only making yourself look amatuer with that assessment, u told me the midget latifi would get knocked out, you told me nunes would get out pointed to a dec, and that there was no way mcgregor diaz would get out the first round last event, all in the same post, it was a cluster fuk of fail that post

I know you did great last card, but everytime you say I'm gonna lose, I win, we know how this story ends. And I'm sorry your gonna lose money on this bet, but a wide grin just came across my face, makes me so confident when you question me, exspecially on a main event, dont believe youve hit on a main event the last 6 months, i know because everytime you have the same bet as me, i lose, but I do hope you hit the rest of your card.

What's that you say? JIBBBY is on Mir? All in on Mark Hunt-O! Just kidding JIBBBY. Good luck to the both of you.

[JoshKnows46]

What's that you say? JIBBBY is on Mir? All in on Mark Hunt-O! Just kidding JIBBBY. Good luck to the both of you.

Jibby is the king of the props though, he proved that last event, without a doubt. I'm the king of the straight plays. UNless he's betting mir by sub, THEn fuk, I don't know what to do then.

[JoshKnows46]

But it's a main event so we might be safe, don't know if the prop greatness has translated yet to main events.

[JIBBBY]

^^ Josh calm down I never claim to be the best and I don't say I will never lose.. Well I am pretty solid with the props though.. Hey but I certainly won't win every fight but I'll win more then I lose... You just lost 2 events in a row now. I'm riding confident now and you are not. Funny how that works..

To be honest I'm not sure I've even lost 2 straight events big like you just did.. I honestly can't remember the last time if I did anyways..

I'm really hoping you come out of this event on top because 3 event losses in a row could send you into hiding.. I don't want to see that happen, I've actually got use to you posting regularly now and I enjoy reading your posts....

It's a big responsibility carrying the load on SBR and having the knowledge that so many people are tailing you.. In this game it's always what have you done for me lately... Been there done that and I'm still here standing..

Remember that, test of time is the real boss..

[JoshKnows46]

^^ Josh calm down I never claim to be the best and I don't say I will never lose.. I certainly won't win every fight but I'll win more then I lose... You just lost 2 events in a row now. I'm riding confident now and you are not. Funny how that works..

To be honest I'm not sure I've even lost 2 straight events big like you just did.. I honestly can't remember the last time if I did anyways..

I'm really hoping you come out of this event on top because 3 event losses in a row could send you into hiding.. I don't want to see that happen, I've actually got use to you posting regularly now and I enjoy reading your posts....

It's a big responsibility carrying the load on SBR and having the knowledge that so many people are tailing you.. In this game it's always what have you done for me lately... Been there done that and I'm still here standing..

Remember that, test of time is the real boss..

Jibby, fuk all this noise, when we starting our tout bussiness bro, we gotta strike while the irons hot man. J AND J, the prop king and the straight king join forces, and fuk sh.it up for just 20 dollars a month, that's value.

[JoshKnows46]

BTW jibby I won last ufc event, only lost 2 small bets in the main and co, killed the rest, I've never lost 2 events in my life, I've actually won money the last 2 events, counting bellator. Anderson Silva bet is long behind me.

[JIBBBY]

BTW jibby I won last ufc event, only lost 2 small bets in the main and co, killed the rest, I've never lost 2 events in my life, I've actually won money the last 2 events, counting bellator. Anderson Silva bet is long behind me.

You won the last event.. The numbers I added up quickly in my head said different in your thread posts.. I hope I'm wrong.. My bad then...You did lose your big bets though in the last event..

Remember Joshy, you may have picked the straights better then me in the recent past but the one time we bet I won and you are just now finishing giving me bet points..

Let me know when you want to try your luck again?.. I expect to completely kill this next card just like I did that last..

I hit dogs in the last event even outside my hedges, I even had you saying I'm killing it lately..

I called Mesha Tate from the very start in this last event and bet big on her straight.. I also bet big on the 2.5 under with the Dias/McGregor fight and hit that for huge.. Just for the record I bet Latifi and I had him in parlay that I won.. He is a midget though

I hate dragging up stuff because I don't like to boast and brag.. I deliver every time I'm called out though on SBR and that will never change.. I have that in me and always did with gambling......

$100.00	$207.90		Win	3 Team Parlay
									Win	3/5/16 11:59pm UFC Fighting 1001 Nate Diaz/Conor McGregor Under 2½ -190*
									Win	3/5/16 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1202 Ilir Latifi -200* <small>vs</small> Gian Villante
									Win	3/5/16 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1302 Corey Anderson -290* <small>vs</small> Tom Lawlor

[JoshKnows46]

i won all my big bets you silly fuk, thats the point, you better add better boy, i didnt update what i won or lose on the anderson, cerrone, or mcgregor cards, because i thought it was clear i won 2, lost 1, guess i'm gonna have to for you slow fuks that cant add..jibby even if you become 10X the handcapper you are now, you still wouldnt be half the man i am, so dont get it twisted....i'm a investor, you're a gambler...i hate to break the news to you, but no one here tails you, we dont even know what your betting for the most part, till after the event, so unless you start posting a thread intitled the prop fukin king, and actually posting bets before the event clearly for everyone to see, you can stop trying to compare yourself to me. grow some balls, and post all your bets before the event.

[JoshKnows46]

Anderson flaked, and rivera got robbed resulted in over $6,000 of damages against me on that card, neither was the incorrect play...

Last 4 event results...

Cerrone Card.. +$7,901.88 on the event
Anderson card.. -$7,477.35 on the event
Bellator card.. +$970 on the event
Mcgregor Card.. +$2,089.85 on the event

= +$3,484.38 in winnings

in a 30 day period, this is as bad as it gets for me... i don't put in all this work to only profit 11.5 units.

must we go back further, i go through periods of winning 15-20 events in a row, before i have a losing card, with profits in the ball park of $5000 to $12,000 on every single card...

I am the best, and I have no equal!

[JIBBBY]

^I beat those numbers.. Just saying.. I'm up about $15,000 or so in the last 30 days with just my MMA betting if we are keeping running totals..

I only bet a few hundred on every play unlike you Josh so remember that.. When I lose I lose small.. When I win I win big. I'm trying to teach you that with prop hedge play and how prop play at +odds can bail you out of fights even when you pick them wrong.. It's often cheap insurance..

Keep up the good play Josh I won't talk ya down. We are a team here on SBR.. Our goal is to win bets and discuss them.. I hope I can keep up my stellar prop play and I hope you can continue the with the straight hits..

Mark Hunt fail coming up though..

[bjpenn85]

^^ Josh calm down I never claim to be the best and I don't say I will never lose.. Well I am pretty solid with the props though.. Hey but I certainly won't win every fight but I'll win more then I lose... You just lost 2 events in a row now. I'm riding confident now and you are not. Funny how that works..

To be honest I'm not sure I've even lost 2 straight events big like you just did.. I honestly can't remember the last time if I did anyways..

I'm really hoping you come out of this event on top because 3 event losses in a row could send you into hiding.. I don't want to see that happen, I've actually got use to you posting regularly now and I enjoy reading your posts....

It's a big responsibility carrying the load on SBR and having the knowledge that so many people are tailing you.. In this game it's always what have you done for me lately... Been there done that and I'm still here standing..

Remember that, test of time is the real boss..

Can agree on that, youre good when it comes to props!

[JoshKnows46]

^I beat those numbers.. Just saying.. I'm up about $15,000 or so in the last 30 days with just my MMA betting if we are keeping running totals..

I only bet a few hundred on every play unlike you Josh so remember that.. When I lose I lose small.. When I win I win big. I'm trying to teach you that with prop hedge play and how prop play at +odds can bail you out of fights even when you pick them wrong.. It's often cheap insurance..

Keep up the good play Josh I won't talk ya down. We are a team here on SBR.. Our goal is to win bets and discuss them.. I hope I can keep up my stellar prop play and I hope you can continue the with the straight hits..

Mark Hunt fail coming up though..

These are only posted bets before the fight, I'm not counting my live action winnings, and I'm not counting make believe shit, like you post once the events over....

[JoshKnows46]

Anderson flaked, and rivera got robbed resulted in over $6,000 of damages against me on that card, neither was the incorrect play...

Last 4 event results...

Cerrone Card.. +$7,901.88 on the event
Anderson card.. -$7,477.35 on the event
Bellator card.. +$970 on the event
Mcgregor Card.. +$2,089.85 on the event

= +$3,484.38 in winnings

in a 30 day period, this is as bad as it gets for me... i don't put in all this work to only profit 11.5 units.

must we go back further, i go through periods of winning 15-20 events in a row, before i have a losing card, with profits in the ball park of $5000 to $12,000 on every single card...

I am the best, and I have no equal!

The event before the cerrone card, ufc fight night 82: feb 6th, only posted bets before the fight, not make believe shit like jibby post after the fact....

+$10,970.88 On the Event

We Keeping a running total, add it up to the rest of money jibby, and try to keep up...

[JIBBBY]

These are only posted bets before the fight, I'm not counting my live action winnings, and I'm not counting make believe shit, like you post once the events over....

Oh now that's not playing nice Josh... Why gotta go there? I was being nice.. You know I post my stuff pending via copy and paste and I'll do the same with this event as I always do.. I post right before every fight starts as well with every event.. I just posted my bets on the real event thread today and those amounts won't change..

I don't like being called a liar Josh.. I don't make up stuff, if I lose I lose, if I win I win and I'll always call it as such..If I wanted to exaggerate betting numbers I would inflate my normal $100 bets to $1000 like you do and not copy and paste.

[JoshKnows46]

next card down the line was the superbowl card... you know the one where you bet carolina... and i layed denver negative points in multiple props for more value...

9-1 on the night/ +$5,759.50

[JoshKnows46]

next card is legacy 51 and i lost -$1212.50

[JoshKnows46]

Next card is the january 30th card were i bet a +350 underdog in brian barbaran for $1000, and him inside distance at +630, while you layed the juice on sage northcutt and lost your ass....i profited on this event..

+$8696.86

[JoshKnows46]

Tell me when you are tired of the punishment i am handing out on you right now, and i will have mercy on you, like the good king i am, when you bow down to me, i'll stop embarrasing you jibby.....you ready to shut your mouth?, and stop trying to compare yourself to me....

[JIBBBY]

Can agree on that, youre good when it comes to props!

Thanks BJ, you are the reason I now am logging my totals after every event in spread sheet format...

[JoshKnows46]

whats my running total at now jibby, can you add?....