JoshKnows Ufc fn 85: Hunt vs Mir

[JoshKnows46]

My Full Card:

Hunt -175/-180 risking $3000 (10 units) won $1690.47

Magny +110/+115 risking $3000 (10 units) won $3375

Hunt/mir starts round 2 -135 risking $250 (1 unit) lost $250
Hunt/mir starts round 3 +183 risking $250 (1 unit)
lost $250
Hunt/mir starts round 4 +340 risking $100 lost $100
Hunt/mir starts round 5 +473 risking $50
Lost $50
Hunt wins by unanimous dec +2000 risking $50 lost $50
Hunt wins by majority/split dec +2950 risking $50 lost $50

Magny wins in the 3rd +1700 $50 to win $850 Won $850
Magny 3rd round finish +1400 $50 to win $700 won $700
Magny wins by dec +245 $100 to win $245 lost $100

Parlay
Antonio Carlos jr. -550 lost
Not mir in round 1 -900 won
Magny/lombard start round 2 -367 won
Risking $900 to win $603.84 (3 units) lost $900

Magny +3.5 points handicap -215 risking $537.50 (2 units) won $250

Johnny Case -115 $1200 total now (4 units) lost $1200
Johnny Case inside the distance +325 $300 to win $975 (1 unit) lost $300

Smith +100/-130/-140 to win $600 (2 units) won $600

Te huna wins in round 1 +120 $100 won $120
Case wins in round 3 +1550 $100 lost $100
Case wins in round 2 +800 $50 lost $50
Case no scorecards -107 $107 lost $107
Junior wins by tko/ko +157 $100lost $100

Lombard wins by dec +310 $250 to win $775 (1 unit hedge) lost $250
Fight goes 3 round distance -155 $310 to win $200 ( 1 unit) lost $310
mir wins by sub +350 risking $250 to win $875 (1 unit hedge) lost $250

Seohee Ham wins by dec +161 Risking $250 (1 unit) lost $250

Case by sub +705 $100 lost $100
Jouban inside the distance -212 $212 won $100
Jouban under 1.5 Rounds -120 $120 won $100

Parlay
Jouban -485 won
Ham/rawl over 2.5 -250 won
Risking $1200 (4 units) won $826.39

Hunt finishes in 3rd +900 $30 lost 30
Hunt finishes in 4th +1600 $30lost 30
Hunt finishes in 5th +2600 $50 lost 50

Pearson +100 $300 (1 unit) won 300
Pearson dec +170 $100 won 170
Pearson wins in round 3 +1900 $100 lost 100
Pearson wins in round 2 +1075 $25 lost 25
Jouban wins in rd1 +120 $100 won 120
Jouban wins by ko -145 risked $362.50 (1.2 units) won $250

Added:
Jouban -525
Case -110
$1000 to win $1272.73 (3.3 units) lost $1000

[JoshKnows46]

Terrible bets on shoeface, mir/Hunt going over, and case..those are the 3 I regret, think shoeface wins if he doesn't get hurt, I bet kelly live after the injury, killed live play this event, but that helps no one here, thought mir would have more fight, and I don't know what happen to case, body shots took the fight out the man, mathews looked the best I've ever seen him, and case looked the worse I've ever seen him, that fight really took from my final profit. The rest I'm happy with.

[BigMacster]

Thanks Josh,
With your recommendations of Mark Hunt/Neil Magny/Johnny Case to win My $300 dollar investment is up $71 (24% profit).
I'm a patient person and I can see you have a great eye for analyzing this game.
Thanks again for helping out this newbie!

[JoshKnows46]

+$3,449.86 on the night (+11.5 units)
+$33,173.13 year to date (+110.5 units)

That makes 5 winning events in a row for us, since the card bisping shook the world and beat The Silva. We've now doubled our bank roll in less then 3 months, and we're well on our way to doubling it again.

[JoshKnows46]

Thanks Josh,
With your recommendations of Mark Hunt/Neil Magny/Johnny Case to win My $300 dollar investment is up $71 (24% profit).
I'm a patient person and I can see you have a great eye for analyzing this game.
Thanks again for helping out this newbie!

Great to hear it bro, sorry about the case play, we gonna get there.

[JoshKnows46]

I signed up to become one of the dickish fanboys of Josh.

Lost money on the first card I tailed (whatever was before McGregor).
Won a good bit on McGregor/Diaz card.
Won a little bit on WSOF.
And won a good bit tonight.

My quantities are minute compared to you. You bet 3 grand....I bet 3 euros . But none the less you've turned a €50 investment into €100 in 3 cards so I can't complain. Now with a bit of money behind me I can up the amounts I'm betting and start building towards some "adult money".

Cheers Josh. I also like that you're a bit of an arsehole and brag about your winnings. Makes me think of you as more of a "lad that knows his shit" as opposed to a "businessman calculating statistics via data and shit"

Lol glad to have you aboard man, who doesn't like winning money, love your attitude and the fact that your being patient, that's the attitude of a winner, you be betting big boy money in no time, if you keep that same mindset when we win or when we lose, you'll get there.

[JoshKnows46]

Do you know what the event result was? I got 1000 dollars approx from what was added on this thread. By only sticking to the main plays you would had a profit of almost 5000 dollars, but parlays and other unecessary props and bullshit cut all the profit down to 1000-1500 dollars, if i am right with my calculations. Maybe sticking with the big plays and removing props, parlays is the way to go.

Just think about out, how many parlays havent you lost on favourites. The fact that you put a favourite in a parlay means that you are not confident enough in him, as in carlos junior, cb dolloway, mcregor, anderson silva.

Im done with parlay favourites. Although this time around joubain def was parlay worthy, but then one stick him together with another none worthy parlay filler, and then boom, upset. Parlays broken. It happens too often

If you cut out the favorite parlays, and props, your gonna be cutting out your profit in the long run. Don't blaim a parlay on a bad bet, junior was just a bad bet to lay 3 units, and we don't really know how it would have went if he didn't twist his ankle, I lean to claiming that to varience, but I'll mark it down as a lose, if I bet it, it doesn't matter how I bet it, I was confident in it based on what I watched on film, and there's nothing more I can do then be obessive over ever bet I make, if it loses, it loses and I'll learn from it as it comes to those 2 fighters and how I bet their fights moving forward. But one of the things I won't change is betting parlays or props because some happen to miss, and I'd advise you wouldn't either.

[JoshKnows46]

FUK Case was up 2 rounds on 2 of the 3 score cards, i was 13 seconds from profiting over 9 grand, Thats a kick in the nuts....i said as much in the event thread, and everyone else was saying mathews was up 2 rounds, i dont understand what fight some of these people are watching sometimes, most here must be terrible at live betting events.

[bjpenn85]

FUK Case was up 2 rounds on 2 of the 3 score cards, i was 13 seconds from profiting over 9 grand, Thats a kick in the nuts....i said as much in the event thread, and everyone else was saying mathews was up 2 rounds, i dont understand what fight some of these people are watching sometimes, most here must be terrible at live betting events.

both unibets and 5dimes had matthews winning after round 1, i dont remember if that was also the case after round 2, but most probably. Those body shots had case hurt in round 2. Dont know what the judges saw, the only thing case did correct was to reverse a takedown from matthews in round 1. Just horrible performance from bell to bell. I had a lot of money on case, so its not like i didnt want him to win, but he just didnt perform as i thought he would. And matthews made a big technical leap as miri said.

[JoshKnows46]

both unibets and 5dimes had matthews winning after round 1, i dont remember if that was also the case after round 2, but most probably. Those body shots had case hurt in round 2. Dont know what the judges saw, the only thing case did correct was to reverse a takedown from matthews in round 1. Just horrible performance from bell to bell. I had a lot of money on case, so its not like i didnt want him to win, but he just didnt perform as i thought he would. And matthews made a big technical leap as miri said.

he didn't perform as i expected, but i had him up 2 going into the 3rd, and so did the judges, constant forward pressure, so its disappointment that he couldn't last a few more seconds, that was a huge swing in my final profit, killed a parlay with jouban as well. mathews made a big leap, but i dont understand how he did it, case is at the much better gym, i expected case to have the bigger leap, the body shots took it out of him, and/or the humidity, becuase i expected him to be the fresher fighter going into the 3rd, i obviously regret wagering on him for the amount i did, but the fuk could have lasted a few more seconds...

[CaptChaos145]

he didn't perform as i expected, but i had him up 2 going into the 3rd, and so did the judges, constant forward pressure, so its disappointment that he couldn't last a few more seconds, that was a huge swing in my final profit, killed a parlay with jouban as well. mathews made a big leap, but i dont understand how he did it, case is at the much better gym, i expected case to have the bigger leap, the body shots took it out of him, and/or the humidity, becuase i expected him to be the fresher fighter going into the 3rd, i obviously regret wagering on him for the amount i did, but the fuk could have lasted a few more seconds...

I lost on Case too. I think Case underestimated the youngster and Matthews obviously has a fast learning curve. He's a powerful 155er.

[UncleChael]

Respect, padre. Magny has one hell of a chin. Josh knows.

[JoshKnows46]

Respect, padre. Magny has one hell of a chin. Josh knows.

Excellent recovery time by magny, thanks bud.

[TrumpOWNS]

Respect, padre. Magny has one hell of a chin. Josh knows.

I know all of us Magny backers were a bit nervous when he was taking those shots but as soon as the roid rage rush was over, the fight was over. I text all my friends and told em all to pound Magny live as soon as round 1 ends... also pounded that worthless can who was +700 vs Antonio Jr. before round 3. The odds makers really don't know what the hell they're doing when it comes to ufc live betting. Still can't believe Diaz was +600 vs Conor after round 1. It's like these idiots have never seen a Diaz fight. You better lay on them or stick and run because if you trade, get in a battle of cardio, chins, and wills, you will drown. It's sweet poetry watching them suffocate fighters.

[JoshKnows46]

I know all of us Magny backers were a bit nervous when he was taking those shots but as soon as the roid rage rush was over, the fight was over. I text all my friends and told em all to pound Magny live as soon as round 1 ends... also pounded that worthless can who was +700 vs Antonio Jr. before round 3. The odds makers really don't know what the hell they're doing when it comes to ufc live betting. Still can't believe Diaz was +600 vs Conor after round 1. It's like these idiots have never seen a Diaz fight. You better lay on them or stick and run because if you trade, get in a battle of cardio, chins, and wills, you will drown. It's sweet poetry watching them suffocate fighters.

I was hoping for that 1st round but I'm a sick muthafucka, i maxed that out after the first live as well, the bet on magny was based on his cardio, recovery time that's he's proven before, improved ground game and wrestling, all makes him a tough guy to finish in the first, this is why he was a terrible matchup for lombard and I knew he'd be the first guy to finish lombard.

[TrumpOWNS]

I was hoping for that 1st round but I'm a sick muthafucka, i maxed that out after the first live as well, the bet on magny was based on his cardio, recovery time that's he's proven before, improved ground game and wrestling, all makes him a tough guy to finish in the first, this is why he was a terrible matchup for lombard and I knew he'd be the first guy to finish lombard.

Haha Well we all knew he was gonna blow his wad in the first and likely hurt Magny but man you are one sick mofo if you were HOPING for it. And you call JIBBBY a gambler?! You know you love the action and to feel the rush just as much haha.

[JoshKnows46]

Haha Well we all knew he was gonna blow his wad in the first and likely hurt Magny but man you are one sick mofo if you were HOPING for it. And you call JIBBBY a gambler?! You know you love the action and to feel the rush just as much haha.

What I do can't be called gambling, I call it collecting....I collect, I put in the work to know the outcomes, what jibby does is gambling, he reads articles online of other peoples opinions, that put in about as much work in this as he does, and he forms his opinions off their thoughts, then he gets the bet in at the worse possible lines imaginable. If you always win, it can't be called gambling, it must be called something else. What I do is watch the numbers in my accounts rise, I withdraw, then I watch them rise again, rinse and repeat.

[Thor4140]

What I do can't be called gambling, I call it collecting....I collect, I put in the work to know the outcomes, what jibby does is gambling, he reads articles online of other peoples opinions, that put in about as much work in this as he does, and he forms his opinions off their thoughts, then he gets the bet in at the worse possible lines imaginable. If you always win, it can't be called gambling, it must be called something else. What I do is watch the numbers in my accounts rise, I withdraw, then I watch them rise again, rinse and repeat.

Does pretty much sum up Jibby's handicapping style

[TrumpOWNS]

What I do can't be called gambling, I call it collecting....I collect, I put in the work to know the outcomes, what jibby does is gambling, he reads articles online of other peoples opinions, that put in about as much work in this as he does, and he forms his opinions off their thoughts, then he gets the bet in at the worse possible lines imaginable. If you always win, it can't be called gambling, it must be called something else. What I do is watch the numbers in my accounts rise, I withdraw, then I watch them rise again, rinse and repeat.

To be fair, you don't "always" win. Dillashaw/Cruz and Lawler/Condit were very close fights and you probably should've won the TJ fight because he was champ, but I didn't think Condit did enough to take the belt from Robbie. If you're saying you win every month, however, I can't argue with that haha.

[JIBBBY]

Does pretty much sum up Jibby's handicapping style

That is my capping style and you should know that after all this time Thor. I pegged you for a smart guy but this post makes me think otherwise.. This brings me back to the early SBR days when guys like you laughed at me for posting up Sherdog or Wiki fighter links for quick reference.. I never understood why that was so uncool to do on this forum.... I still post those sherdog fighter links up today.. You can see how a fighter trends with those sherdog links.. The number 1 capping tool in MMA I think is the availability history of a fighter. THANK YOU SHERDOG!!!!

Thor and Josh you guys can bet your ass I read all the articles, watch vids, UFC shows, etc.. I post all that information up on the event Threads so you guys can check it.. I look at sherdog fighter trends and percentages especially.. That's how I form a conclusion on a prop play.... drrrrrr.... Do I follow any one person no, do I get ideas and thoughts from others absolutely.. In the end I look at both fighters and their styles and strengths and go with that ultimately and if I'm on the fence then I hedge both ways with + odd props...

Thor is that a bad thing reading or gathering as much information as possible on fighters? Tell you what you find any one writer, caper, etc that picks exactly the same props on a card as I do I'll give you $1000 bucks

[JoshKnows46]

That is my capping style and you should know that after all this time Thor. I pegged you for a smart guy but this post makes me think otherwise.. This brings me back to the early SBR days when guys like you laughed at me for posting up Sherdog or Wiki fighter links for quick reference.. I never understood why that was so uncool to do on this forum.... I still post those sherdog fighter links up today.. You can see how a fighter trends with those sherdog links.. The number 1 capping tool in MMA I think is the availability history of a fighter. THANK YOU SHERDOG!!!!

Thor and Josh you guys can bet your ass I read all the articles, watch vids, UFC shows, etc.. I post all that information up on the event Threads so you guys can check it.. I look at sherdog fighter trends and percentages especially.. That's how I form a conclusion on a prop play.... drrrrrr.... Do I follow any one person no, do I get ideas and thoughts from others absolutely.. In the end I look at both fighters and their styles and strengths and go with that ultimately and if I'm on the fence then I hedge both ways with + odd props...

Thor is that a bad thing reading or gathering as much information as possible on fighters? Tell you what you find any one writer, caper, etc that picks exactly the same props on a card as I do I'll give you $1000 bucks

Who do I Trust? ME!! That's who...



Stop ur fukin crying jibby, either take your beating like a man, or accept defeat to the better man, but stop ur whinning...

[JIBBBY]

Can I get some cheese with my wine?

[Killer_Demo]

I know all of us Magny backers were a bit nervous when he was taking those shots but as soon as the roid rage rush was over, the fight was over. I text all my friends and told em all to pound Magny live as soon as round 1 ends... also pounded that worthless can who was +700 vs Antonio Jr. before round 3. The odds makers really don't know what the hell they're doing when it comes to ufc live betting. Still can't believe Diaz was +600 vs Conor after round 1. It's like these idiots have never seen a Diaz fight. You better lay on them or stick and run because if you trade, get in a battle of cardio, chins, and wills, you will drown. It's sweet poetry watching them suffocate fighters.

Clueless