*JoshKnows UFC Fight Night 84: Feb 27th

[mackave]

Streamendous ( search on Google ) you will be about 40 seconds behind though from what most UFC events have been

[AliMMA]

I will make a parlay for you and SBR tomorrow.

Thanks man!!

[AliMMA]

Agree with most of this exept omie over, that fight is finished early. I'd go with Breese itd...anderson.. goes the. Distance in khabilov fight.. jotko....and rivera, do that same parlay for equal price with Lietes instead of rivera...or you can take any one of those 5 out and put mcgregor in if you care to wait 2 weeks. Also it doesn't matter if you have only 30 bucks, your better off betting 5 dollars a play till you get to a 100, then 15 a play till u get to 200, then 25 a bet till you get to 500, so on and so forth, straight bets are the way to win money, but I hope that parlay hits for u, good luck

Thanks Josh, I will start to bet single fights on a different betting book!

[bjpenn85]

My full card:
Anderson Silva -325 $325 to win $100
Anderson Silva wins inside the distance -131 $131 to win $100
Thales Leites +290 $1000 to win $2900
Thales Leites wins inside the distance +574 $300 to win $1722
Francisco Rivera -235 Risking $705 to win $300
Francisco Rivera wins inside the distance +100 $300 to win $300
Krzysztof Jotko -135/-155 risking $900
Anderson/Bisping Over 2.5 -140 $450 win $321.43
Anderson to finish in round 3 +650 $130 to win $845
Anderson to finish in round 4 +1050 $100 to win $1050
Anderson to finish in round 5 +1650 $70 to win $1155
Marlon Vera +155 $300 to win $465
Marlon Vera inside the distance +290 $150 to win $435
Parke wins by 3 round decision +335 risking $300
Parke/khabilov goes 3 round distance -245 risking $1500
Daniel Omielanczuk -120 risking $1000
Gouti/pack under 2.5 +145 risking $300
Amirk/Wilkinson under 2.5 -155 risking $600

Parlay
Anderson -320
Mcgregor -400
$900 to win $576.56

Im not digging that Leites pick at all. I dont think Leites is the better striker. A bet on Leites is justified considering the odds, but not 3000 dollar / 9-10 units, on a fighter which has a disadvantage where the fight takes place, on the feet. Leites is also considerably slower, so im not sure what you have seen who makes you have this much confidence in Leites. Faulty dec or not, i do think this is an unnecessary wager, no need to potentially loose 3000 just because you see value. Its like the tj bet, its sound put money on him on paper, but not go totally crazy here josh. Would much rather put those 3000 dollar on mcregor inside distance or more on silva and mcregor. At least make a wager on Mousasi decision to buy back some of the loss. Seriously.

[BELM0NT]

Silva line dropped quite a bit, I think over 2.5 is best way to play that fight. I could really see that fight going either way

[bjpenn85]

Silva line dropped quite a bit, I think over 2.5 is best way to play that fight. I could really see that fight going either way

Its not the best way to play the fight, because youre fakked if anderson gets the 2.round tko, Rockhold did, henderson did and belfort. Fight can go many ways, and its likely that it goes over 2.5 rounds but..why risk it, if you can bet anderson silva inside distance hegded with silva dec. You can also go bisping split dec small. Covers more ground of the likely events happening in the fight. Bisping tko isnt likely. Bisping doesnt ko people, onlly the absolute garbage fighters in bad shape, or old and shopworn fighters. He has never finished a high caliber fighter, no need to believe he will finish this time either. If that was to happen then fine, variance. On to the next.

[rabun]

I don't think lines movement indicate anything important in Ufc. The volume of bets is smaller comparing to other sports so it doesn't take a lot of moneyto move them. Second it could be that guys from Europe especially in UK start to put their bets and unloading on their guy. It's past 2 in most of europe and bets on soccer are being finalized.BOL...

[bjpenn85]

I don't think lines movement indicate anything important in Ufc. The volume of bets is smaller comparing to other sports so it doesn't take a lot of moneyto move them. Second it could be that guys from Europe especially in UK start to put their bets and unloading on their guy. It's past 2 in most of europe and bets on soccer are being finalized.BOL...

Line movement can mean an abundance of different thing. Bad line? right. hype? def. or just normal activity people betting on both sides. Large line movement very often indicate something, Rampage went from 1.30 against ryan bader to 1.90 or 1.80 after he failed weight, and he also lost clearly. So line movement may indicate that some information, or in this case, new information that should def influence the result of the fight is present. If someone goes from 1.30-1.38 thats not considered in my book at at least as a significant line movement. Dada 5000 line droppes as a sack of potatoes last weekend without that having any impact of the result, but that turned many kimbo backers off, as such a line drop logically had to mean something, although it didnt. But, even 5Dimes took that line down, just based on the large drop, so that tells you something about that at least large line movements absolute indicate something.

[rabun]

I would agree interms of weight cutting but we are past that. I'm not talking about silly bellator. Last week line on Cowboy started too move in favor of his opponent and look how that turn up.

[bjpenn85]

I would agree interms of weight cutting but we are past that. I'm not talking about silly bellator. Last week line on Cowboy started too move in favor of his opponent and look how that turn up.

Well as i said, small line movement doesnt mean anything, as you also stated earlier. If you understand the reasons why a line move, its easier to understand if one should care or dismiss it. It can be a fighters condition, looking bad, or even smaller, not as muscular as before, bad performances, hometown advantage etc etc. Line movement means something if you understand shit. Maybe drop in the line was to do the public believed cerrone had recently got Koed by RDA in his last fight while oliveira had just KOed hallman? Size advantage? That line drop was obviously not something you needed to pay attention to because you knew the reasons for line movement was weak, made by amateurs and hobby bettors on fight day.

[rabun]

Seems to me that we agree more than not. Maybe my post was not clear enough. Regardless I for one am happy that the line on Silva keeps getting up and maybe I'll bet on him later. BOL to you whoever you bet...

[mirinquads]

Teymur 3 units to win 2
Amirmakwani 3,3 units to win 2
Marlon Vera 2,5 units to win 4,5 units
Leites 2,5 units to win 7 units
Allen/Rustam Over 2 units to win 1,6 units
Allen/Jotko 2 units to win 2,2
Silva/Bisping Start rd 3
Silva/Bisping Start rd 4
Silva/Bisping Start rd 5
Bisping Dec 0,75 +455
Omielanczuk 2,2 units to win 2
Omie RD 3 0,3 units +1400
Jarjar Dec 0,3 units +500
Breese RD 2, 0,3 +425
Pickett RD 2, 0,3 +1600
Askham Rd 2 0,25 +450
Gouti 2,14 to win 2 units
Pascal/Breese/TJ 1 unit to win 1 unit (Old play)
Pickett +3,5 0,5 105
Leites +3,5 0,5 +120
Leites/Mou Over 3 units to win 2,5 ish units
Wilk/Ami not rd 2
Wilk/Ami not rd 3
Jotko 0,5 -109
Jotko 0,5 -126
Rivera 1,12 units to win 0,75
Pickett/Rivera FOTN 0,25 +600
Khabilov No scorecards 2,9 units to win 1 unit
Omie No Scorecards 1,35 units to win 1
Amir Sub 1 unit to win 2,4
Vera Sub 0,35 +450
Meza Sub 0,45 +975
Anderson ITD 1,18 to win 1 unit
Anderson Rd 2
Anderson Rd 3
Anderson Rd 4
Pickett ITD 0,5 +600
Breese TKO 1,35 unit to win 1
Vera/Grant GTD 1 unit to win 1,35 unit
Gouti Dec 0,7 +240
Silva/Conor/BreeseITD/Rustam GTD 2,5 unit to win 4,6 unit
Svenson Sub 0,3 +685
Svensson RD 0,3 +2225
Teymur TKO 0,5 +225
Jotko/Scott GTD 1,65 to win 1 unit

[mackave]

bam

[JoshKnows46]

Im not digging that Leites pick at all. I dont think Leites is the better striker. A bet on Leites is justified considering the odds, but not 3000 dollar / 9-10 units, on a fighter which has a disadvantage where the fight takes place, on the feet. Leites is also considerably slower, so im not sure what you have seen who makes you have this much confidence in Leites. Faulty dec or not, i do think this is an unnecessary wager, no need to potentially loose 3000 just because you see value. Its like the tj bet, its sound put money on him on paper, but not go totally crazy here josh. Would much rather put those 3000 dollar on mcregor inside distance or more on silva and mcregor. At least make a wager on Mousasi decision to buy back some of the loss. Seriously.

Its the best bet on the board, he's the favorite, and I'm risking 1000, read that again. 3.3 units invested, pay attention, it doesn't matter if you dig the bet or not, no one's opinion matters but mine when making this money.

[JoshKnows46]

Added
Silva -230 $1200
Silva -210 $600
Rivera -150 $300

[STAY STRONG]

In it to win it.

[Shagdogy]

Ref is an absolute joke in this Vera fight.

[visualrealism]

lol... they said fantastic performance by brad. Lol

[Z-Fly]

There is no way Rivera lost that fight.

[mohye1980]

Wow what a bullshit decision. Rivera landed way more clean punches. Don't know how he lost.

[pilebuck13]

Thales Leites sitting at +265 on 5d got it at 280 hour ago bol guys

[pilebuck13]

+250 now lets get this

[JoshKnows46]

I added anderson -245 $2500, and anderson by ko +120 $500

[bjpenn85]

Its the best bet on the board, he's the favorite, and I'm risking 1000, read that again. 3.3 units invested, pay attention, it doesn't matter if you dig the bet or not, no one's opinion matters but mine when making this money.

Hope you had mousasi decision. I warned you and i told you why this was a bad bet. Leites has always had horrible takedowns as well, i seriously dont know what you ever saw in leites. Good bet with Jotko though, i tailed you there.

[JoshKnows46]

Hope you had mousasi decision. I warned you and i told you why this was a bad bet. Leites has always had horrible takedowns as well, i seriously dont know what you ever saw in leites. Good bet with Jotko though, i tailed you there.

Leites fought like trash, he's better than that, but no excuss, this bet and the amirk under were both shit bets by me,.nice hit on mousasi dec, I didn't bet it.

[Shazzadude]

Yawn, he gets one wrong and people are on his ass.

[jordanft19]

Do you recommend a bisping decision hedge? These British judges have been screwy

[JoshKnows46]

Do you recommend a bisping decision hedge? These British judges have been screwy

I'm not personally because I don't think it makes the judges, but if you want to play it safe, doesnt hurt to throw 25 each on bisping split and dec.

[jordanft19]

I had a feeling this was going to happen..

[JoshKnows46]

Unfuckin real, anderson is a idiot, no way this shoulda went the distance, fukin clown

[hcfightgear]

Sad

[pilebuck13]

Man rough card for many

[latarianmilton]

You'll get them next week man

[GoodSun]

i agree silva should have finished it off.

we'll have a better day on march 5th.

[Thor4140]

i wouldn't bet any of these Brazilians their first fight off the ped ban. McGregor was spot on when he said "Ped seems to be a way of life
for these Brazilians. Most of them look like shit

Again they look like shit